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August 12, 2026 2 mins

Everything in this election's just been turned on its head in 24 hours for three reasons – and it's not because of National.  

Firstly, yesterday Chris Hipkins was asked if he'd tell us how he would deal with the Opportunity Party, what the caveats would be.  

He said the Labour Party were going to listen to the voters on TOP – a very different thing to what he’s said previously. 

Secondly, TOP is looking more and more likely to get into Parliament and could hold the balance of power.  

Thirdly, Luxon, while wounded, will not face another coup now that the detractors couldn't organise themselves into a single ticket and topple the boss. 

In this case the old saying is tipped on its head: fool me once, shame on me. Fool me twice, shame you. 

There are no third chances for a coup pre-election. 

Which brings us to the state of play. This election is going to be fought, won and lost, on one issue: tax. 

For Hipkins to woo the Greens, Te Pāti Māori, and Opportunity, they will need to move on tax.  

Chlöe Swarbrick, Qiulae Wong, and Debbie Ngarewa-Packer are loading the gun, cocking it, and wanting to fire on Kiwi households.  

So which taxes?  

I went on TOP's calculator this morning for the land tax.  

If you're a single divorced mum with a house from your settlement worth $2m, which is not much in Auckland or the deep south, you'll be paying an extra $456 a week.  

That includes $35k a year in land taxes. 

If you're a couple with kids living in Beachlands, you'll be paying an extra $30 a week in taxes, including $24k in property taxes. 

That's before you've factored in taxes on farmland, an effective inheritance tax, a capital gains tax on an extra house (say a retirement rental investment, or a kid you saved to buy your kids), an inheritance tax/gift tax when you die or pass on big assets.  

When you add to this the fact we don't know how these four left bloc parties will spend your money, and how effective they'll be at doing so, this gets messier than a botched Tory coup. 

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Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Everything in this election has just been turned on its
head in twenty four hours for three reasons, and it's
not because of national Firstly, yesterday Chris Hopkins was asked
if he would do a deal with TOP and how
he would do a deal with TOP. What are the caveats,
what are the parameters. So what he went on to
say is that they were the Labor Party were quote

(00:24):
going to do whatever and going to listen to the
voters on Top. Now that is a very different thing
to what he has said previously. Top is looking more
and more likely to get into Parliament and could hold
the balance of power. Luxeon well wounded, will not face
another keup now that his detractors would basically couldn't organize

(00:49):
a piss up in a brewery and couldn't get themselves
on into a single ticket to top of the boss.
In this case, the old saying is tipped on its head.
For me once, shame on me, For me twice, shame
on you. There are no third chances for a coup
pre election, which brings us to the state of play.
This election is going to be fought one and lost
on one issue, and that's tax. For Hipkins to woo

(01:13):
the Greens to party Marti and opportunity. They will need
to move on tax. Chloe Q Laywong and Debbie are
loading the gun, cocking it and wanting to fire on
Kiwii households on tax? So which taxes I went to
tops calculated this morning? For the land tax. If you're
a single, divorced mum with a house from your settlement,

(01:34):
maybe with your ex husband worth two million bucks, which is,
let's be honest, not much in Auckland these days, or
the Deep South, you'll be paying an extra four hundred
and fifty six dollars a week in tax. That's if
you're on one hundred k a year salary. That includes
thirty five thousand dollars a year in land taxes. If

(01:54):
you're a couple with kids living in Beachland's in Auckland,
you'll be paying an extra thirty bucks a week in taxes,
including twenty four thousand dollars in property taxes. That's before
you've factored in taxes on farmland, an effective inheritance tax,
labour's capital gains tax. I mean you can throw the
kitchen sink at this when you add them all together.

(02:16):
The fact we don't know how these four blocks parties
will actually spend that money, Well, it's messier than a
national coup. For more from Early Edition with Ryan Bridge,
Listen live to News Talk Set B from five am weekdays,
or follow the podcast on iHeartRadio
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