Ryan Bridge: Luxon's leadership is in question, yet again

Here we go again. 

For the second time this year, there's a story in the media about National MPs doing the numbers on Luxon.

At least one of them is talking to Thomas Coughlan at the Herald.

Now, one or two chatting to the media doesn't equal a coup. 

But the political calculation is that Luxon is a drag on the party’s polling. Changing horses midstream would not hurt their chances of forming a government, and might provide momentum and a boost to their share of the right voting bloc, and perhaps even some soft centre.

They’ll be tempted by the Jacinda transition which saw a poll bump. A circuit-breaker.

They’ll be wary of the Judith transition, and many Labour ones before that, which proved fatal.

But this is a completely unique situation as this is a party in government. Whoever leads it, leads New Zealand.

Luxon’s plea for more party votes is falling on deaf ears and despite expensive advertising campaigns and glossy videos of the PM explaining their fiscal strategy, his comments on the campaign, which is underway in earnest, are drowning out the pre-recorded material.

The last week they’ve been in clean-up mode.

They can’t afford to spend another three months traipsing round the country with a dustpan and broom. 

That would require either better discipline from the current leader or change to a new one. 

Which has always been the fly in the ointment for National. There is no Jacinda waiting in the wings. 

Bishop and Willis are well-versed debaters who'd perform well on the campaign. 

However, Kiwis like reluctant heroes and Bishop looks, rightly or wrongly, anything but. 

Willis' near perfect performance handling the initial fuel shock proves her worth but she may be too tied to the cost-of-living woes that have hurt Luxon. 

Erica Stanford is the candidate you'd pick if you really wanted to play ball. She's denied wanting it enough, which is key, and is a star performer able to connect with people in a way others have proven incapable. 

At this point, this is all just talk. But timing is everything in politics and the fact MPs are briefing journalists twelve weeks out from early voting is destabilising in itself. 

Are you better to nip it in the bud or stay the course and hope for brighter days?

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Here we go again, for at least the second time
this year. There's a story in the media about National
MP's doing the numbers on Luckxon. Thomas Coglan at The
Herald has said that phones are ringing. At least one
MP has spoken. One MP does not a story make.
But the political calculation here is that Luckxon is a
drag on the party's polling. Changing horses midstream would not

(00:21):
hurt their chances of forming a government, but might provide
momentum and a boost to their share of the right
voting block and perhaps even some soft center. They'll be
tempted by the Descender transition, which saw a poll bump
a circuit breaker. They'll be wary of the Judith transition
and the many Labour ones before that which proved fatal.

(00:41):
But this is completely unique, this situation, as this is
a party in government, whoever leads it leads New Zealand.
Luxon's plea for more party votes is falling on deaf fares,
and despite expensive advertising campaigns and glossy videos of the
PM explaining their fiscal strategy, his comments on the campaign,
which is underway in Earnest, are drowning out the pre

(01:02):
recorded material the last week they've been in cleanup mode.
They can't afford to spend another three months trapesing around
the country with a dust pan and broom. That would
require either better discipline from the current leader or a
change to a new one, which has always been the
fly in the ointment for national there is no just
cinder in waiting in the wings. Bishop and Willis are

(01:24):
well versed debaters who perform well on the campaign. However,
kiwis like reluctant heroes and Bishop looks rightly or wrongly
anything but Willis's near perfect performance handling the initial fuel
shot proves her worth, but she may be too tied
to the cost of living woes that have hurt Luxen.
Erica Stanford is the candidate you'd pick if you really
wanted to play ball. She's denied wanting it enough, which

(01:47):
is key, and is a star performer able to connect
with people in a way others have proven incapable. At
this point, this is all just talk, but timing is
everything in politics, and the fact MPs are briefing g
an Lest twelve weeks out from early voting is destabilizing
in itself. Are you better to nip it in the
Bud or Hope for Brighter Days. For more from Early

(02:10):
Edition with Ryan Bridge, listen live to news talks it'd
be from five am weekdays, or follow the podcast on
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