The war in Iran is not a shocking event in the sense that we knew it was coming.
Trump has been not so much hinting, but sounding a fog horn for months. As we’ve been covering on this show, he’s been amassing military assets in the region since the end of January.
So not surprising. What has surprised is Iran hitting their neighbours, the Gulf states, so hard, including oil fields and refineries. This has surprised markets. Hence what we’re seeing in Asia and at home.
Same goes for the price of oil. Yesterday when we talked about that Goldman Sacks estimate of $100 a barrel by the end of the week. We got there by the end of Monday.
Remember they also warned of $150 a barrel by the end of the month? Let’s hope we’re not there by Friday.
Oil and fertilizer run our agriculture sector. I listened to a grain farmer in Christchurch yesterday say daily harvesting costs would increase by $2000-$3000. Already.
We are not immune to the price spikes, but we’re also not very well insulated from them either.
We’re reliant on energy imports to keep us afloat now more than ever. Marsden Point used to refine 70% of our petrol and 90% of our diesel. Extracting oil and gas became a cardinal sin under Labour.
You don’t know what you’ve got ‘till it’s gone.
The international shocks, which as we all know, aren’t now so shocking, are also driving a surge in support for economic nationalism and self-reliance. Think New Zealand First.
To this Government’s credit, it has extended our emergency oil back-up supplies and done deals with the Singapores of the world so we don’t run out. As a back stop, we’re about to do LNG. But again, that’s imported and subject to shocks.
The more global events we have, the more we yearn for self-reliance and greater energy independence.
Our world-beating exports keep us afloat, but what use are they without a reliable supply of reasonably priced inputs that help produce them?
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Episode Transcript
The war in Iran is not a shocking event in
the sense that we knew it was coming. Trump's been
not so much hinting but sounding a foghorn for months now,
and as we've been covering on this show, as you
well know, he's been amassing military assets in the region
since the end of January. So not surprising. But what
has surprised is Iran hitting their neighbors the Golf States
so hard, including the oil fields and the refineries. This
(00:22):
has surprised the markets, hence what we're seeing in Asia
and at home. Same goes for the price of oil.
Yesterday when we talked about that Gold and Sax estimate
of one hundred dollars a barrel by the end of
the week, we got there by the end of Monday.
Remember they also warned of one hundred and fifty dollars
a barrel by the end of the month. Let's hope
we're not there by Friday. Oil and fertilizer run our
(00:45):
agricultural sector. And yesterday I was listening to a grain
farmer in christ Church say that daily harvesting costs on
his farm would increase by two to three thousand dollars
a day already during harvesting. We're not immune to the
price spikes, but we're all so not that well insulated
from them either. We're reliant on energy imports to keep
US afloat now more than ever. Marsden Point used to
(01:08):
refine seventy percent of our petrol ninety percent of our diesel.
Extracting oil and gas became a cardinal sin under labor.
You don't know what you've got till it's gone, do you.
The international shocks, which as we all now know, aren't
that shocking, are also driving a surge in support for
economic nationalism and self reliance. Look at New Zealand. First,
(01:30):
to this government's credit, it has extended our emergency oil
backup supplies, done deals with the Singapore's of the world
so that we don't run out. Hopefully and as a
backstop we're about to do LNG, but again that's imported
subject to shocks. The more global events we have, the
more we un for self reliance and greater energy independence.
(01:51):
Our world beating exports keep US afloat, But what use
are they without a reliable supply of reasonably priced ins
that help produce them? For more From early edition with
Ryan Bridge listen live to news talks it'd be from
five am weekdays, or follow the podcast on iHeartRadio
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