Ryan Bridge: We need long term thinking for our health system

Health has always been a portfolio MPs never want a bar of.

You never win. Endless fights with the unions. People waiting for surgery. Constant pressure to keep up with technology. And it’s deeply personal for those who don’t get the care they need - it’s literally life-and-death stuff.

So if the numbers Simeon Brown is putting out are to be believed—and I’ve no reason to doubt them—then he deserves some credit.

Cancer wait times, immunisations, elective surgeries, and ED numbers are all heading in the right direction.

It’s by no means “job done,” and some of the movement is only a few percent—quarter-on-quarter comparisons.

But for a government the media would have you believe is traditionally stingy and ineffective in health, at least we now have measurable results to compare. And they’re not terrible.

Labour will come out today and slam this. They’ll say grandma’s hip operation is being farmed out to the private sector.

And you know what grandma will say? Who cares—I’ve got a new hip.

This is all short-term stuff. The bigger question is how we plan to pay for this expensive system in 20 years’ time when the population crunch hits.

Treasury ran some numbers.

They looked at health spending on pensioners as a share of the overall health budget:

• 1951: 29%
• Today: 40%
• 2051: 63%

So two-thirds of the health budget will be spent on over-65s. And there’ll be fewer workers to pay for it.

The problem with a decent health system is that people live longer as a result. It’s a vicious cycle.

Of course, nobody wants grandma to die—but if Simeon Brown keeps this up, we’ll be bankrupt before that happens. 

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Heals always been a portfolio that MPs never really want
a bar of. You never win. You've got endless fights
with the unions. You've got people waiting for surgery, hard
to keep up with technology, and it's very personal. You know,
if you don't get the care that you need, it's
literally life and death stuff. So if these numbers Simeon
Brown's putting out it to be believed, and I've got
no reason to doubt them, then he should be congratulated.

(00:21):
Cancer wait times, immunizations, elective surgeries, ED numbers are heading
in the right direction, but by no means job finished,
and some of the movements only a few percent, and
it's quarter on quarter comparisons. But for a government the
media would have you believe is traditionally stingy and ineffective
in health, at least we have some measurable, measurable results
to compare and they're not terrible. Labour will come out

(00:42):
today and hate this. They say, grandma's hip operation is
being farmed out to the private sector. And you know
what Grandma will say, I don't care. I've got a
new hip. This is all short term stuff, though. The
bigger question is how we plan to pay for this
expensive system in twenty years time, when the population problem
kicks in. Treasury Ransom numbers on this. They looked at

(01:04):
health spending on pensioners as a share of the overall
health budget nineteen fifty one twenty nine percent. Today it's
forty percent, and by twenty fifty one sixty three percent,
So two thirds of the health budget will be spent
on over sixty fives and fewer workers to pay for it.
The problem with a decent public health system is that

(01:25):
people live longer as a result. It's a vicious cycle.
Of course, nobody wants Grandma to die, but if Simeon
Brown keeps this up, we'll be bankrupt before she carks it.
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