Terry Collins: AA Fuel Spokesperson weighs in on rationing fuel as oil prices spike

New Zealand is still a long way off from car-less days, AA fuel spokesman Terry Collins predicts. 

Government ministers yesterday were receiving advice on emergency fuel measures that could be taken if fuel stocks got too low as a knock-on effect of Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz. 

But Collins told Ryan Bridge Early Edition the Petroleum Demand Restraint Act, which allows for carless days and other options like fuel rationing, is very old fashioned. 

“In those days we didn't have things like working from home and all the types of IT that we do today that makes us maintain productivity in another way.” 

New Zealand also has a fuel security plan which was updated last year. “We hope it never has to be implemented, but at least we've got a plan and we've got legislation that if it's needed, we can implement.” 

There have been reports South Korea could ban exports of refined fuel products to ensure they had sufficient supply at home. That would have major impacts here as New Zealand receives 48% of its refined fuel from the east Asian nation. 

In that event, New Zealand would have to look for different markets including Singapore, Brunei, Malaysia and Indonesia, Collins said. 

“We get a tiny bit out of places like India and the US, but basically we'd be in the same scramble as many other countries.” 

Oil prices are “so unpredictable”, he said. “One thing history's taught me is America tends to underestimate how long they stay in conflict. So I'm very concerned when they talk about weeks when it looks like it could be months.” 

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Another Minister's Oil Group meeting in Wellington this morning. Petrol
up over three bucks a lead for some Brent crewed
up again overnight. Goldman Sachs, we've been following their forecast
that well, they've put another one out and the one
hundred and fifty dollars a barrel worst case scenario is
still a live option, though you'd have to have a
lot more disruption and ongoing. Terry Collins, AA fuel spokesperson
with us this morning. Morning, Terry every Roe. So the

(00:24):
Carlos days thing, we're are long, long long way off,
that aren't.

Speaker 2 (00:27):
We we are. It's actually a good idea, it's a plan.
We've got a couple of things. That was Patrol and
Demand Restraint Act which allowed Carlstay's rationing books. It's very
old fashioned, but remember those days. We have things like
working from home and all the top of it that
we do today that makes us no productivity in other ways.

(00:47):
But we've also had a new Zealand Fuel Security Plan
which was updated last year. These are things that they
kept in the back pocket should something like this happen.
They've dusted off, they looked at and it's a plan
ready to go. We never has to be implemented. But
at least we've got a plan and we've got legislation that,
if needed, we can implement it.

Speaker 1 (01:05):
Cherry, we've got a month on the land and a
month on the water and supply beyond that. Is a
supply actually being affected or are we still expecting that
we will have a flow coming in?

Speaker 2 (01:19):
Look South Korea to talk about looking after the selves first,
Basically they use that eighty five percent of the product.
They were fine if there's a big reduction, so twenty percent. Globally,
they're basically saying we come first. We're a large economic country.
We need this world to continue our commerce. Unfortunately, we
get about forty eight percent of our foreign products from

(01:41):
South Korea, so we would need to look for different markets.

Speaker 1 (01:45):
Would which markets? And also a.

Speaker 2 (01:48):
Sip or Brunei, Malaysia, Indonesia we get a tiny bit
out of place like Indi in the US. But basically
we'll be in the same scramble as many other countries.

Speaker 1 (01:57):
Could we be in the situation where our for your
company look at the price and go, I'm going to
sell it to someone else.

Speaker 2 (02:03):
No, no, how for your companies are looking after ourselves.
We're just trading in a global environment.

Speaker 1 (02:10):
Very good, Terry. Oh, by the way, the price today
and the price that's happened overnight, and that Goldman Sacks
update on the forecast, any any more thoughts on where
it might go?

Speaker 2 (02:22):
This is so unpredictable. I've seen changes in available thirty
dollars over twenty four hours. I had an interview with
a journalist, a fifteen minute interview, and it changed fifteen dollars.
So how you can predict or will lend? Who knows?
I do know, though. One thing history has taught me
is America tends to underestimate how long they stay in conflicts.
So I'm very concerned when they talk about weeks when

(02:45):
it looks like it could be months.

Speaker 1 (02:47):
Cherry all that in two minutes twenty seven from You
Appreciate It fifteen minutes, Who does those anymore? For more
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