Ting Huang: NZIER Senior Economist on economists spilt over whether OCR will rise or stay put

There's division over whether the Official Cash Rate will be hiked or hold steady at 2.25%. 

ANZ and BNZ are both picking it will be raised by 25 points. 

NZIER is expecting the Reserve Bank's board to be split and for Governor Anna Breman to make the captain's call on it. 

NZIER Senior Economist Ting Huang told Ryan Bridge her own group had mixed views but one prevailed. 

She says the majority of members thought holding it at 2.25% was the best option. 

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
I am forcier decision today. Anyone's guests. Really, Monetary Policy
committee was split almost down the middle on a hold
or were raised last time. In fact it was the
middle and then Bremen sticked it in with a casting
vote and held the banks for their money. A n
z and beans reckon we'll get a high quarter of
per cents two and a half asb West pact Kiwi
bank they say will hold tin Huang is in Zidi,

(00:20):
a senior economist with us this morning, Good morning, good morning,
so what do you reckon?

Speaker 2 (00:27):
Thank you? So our latest Insidaia Monetary Policy shadow Board
actually also show the spirit of fuse regarding whether the
USA should be at the July meeting today. But the
balance of strands of view the shadow Board to recommend
that the Central Bank the US are and hold out
two point two five percent today.

Speaker 1 (00:48):
And why is that? Because the risk if you raise
it now of crippling the economy even further is too high.

Speaker 2 (00:55):
Sure so, although so although on balance of strands of
view at the shadow board recommended the OSR to keep
on hold that two point five two percent, But actually
of the other results reflect our lineboard co in terms
of whether the result, banks should keep the OCA unchanged
or raise it by twenty five paces points and rising

(01:18):
inflation was actually, in fact was the key reason for
those shadow board members who were in favor for the
OCR to move towards the neutral rate sooner rather than later,
and this is actually in line with our view at DR.

Speaker 1 (01:34):
Good to have you on the show. Tinquan India Senior Economists.
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