Barry Soper: Newstalk ZB senior political correspondent on the Poll of Polls predicting the next election winners

The coalition appears to have good odds of winning the next election, largely thanks to New Zealand First. 

The NZ Herald - Motu Research Poll of Polls suggests there is an 88.3 percent probability the coalition will win a second term. 

The model shows it's extended its lead over the opposition by two points in the last 12 months.

Newstalk ZB senior political correspondent Barry Soper explained how this data is calculated - and whether voters can take it seriously.

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Barri Soo for senior political correspondence with us. Hey Barring,
Good afternoon, Heather. Okay, so the poll of polls tells
us what I think we already knew was going to
happen in the center. The coalition government's returned.

Speaker 2 (00:09):
Right.

Speaker 3 (00:10):
Yeah, This poll of polls is a really interesting reflection
because what it looks at is it looks at data
from all the polls that we talk about time and
time again, and the lead up to an election, and
other private or less public profile polls, and it chucks
them all into a Commut computer model and then the

(00:32):
data comes up. Well, the data now says, if it
looks over the past year, that the probability of the
coalition winning a second term after the election based at
eighty eight point three percent. And that's up a lot.
If you look at the support for the three coalition

(00:53):
parties is fifty point two percent compared to forty four
point nine percent for the opposition. Last March, the model
showed the average gap between coalition and opposition parties was
just three point three percent. So, like we've been saying
now for months, the idea that this coalition is on

(01:14):
the way out, I think is relatively remote possibility, even
though the polls are relatively close.

Speaker 1 (01:20):
What did you make of the Greens policy announcement today
on electricity prices.

Speaker 3 (01:24):
Well, see, it's very unfortunate that they won't get to
implement that if this poll is right, because they won't
be part of the Labor coalition. So what they're saying
essentially is that, look, the government owns fifty one percent
of Meridian, Genesis and Mercury and they've written this is
the Green co leadership have written to the relevant ministers

(01:46):
Nikola Willison, the Energy Minister, Same and Brown saying that
basically what they should do is instruct the energy sector
to reduce prices for households. They say nearly two hundred
thousand households can't afford to heat their homes or they
couldn't last year, and they said that's up from almost

(02:09):
seventy thousand more now can't heat their homes than last year.
So they're saying that, but of course these companies and
they're talking about solar energy as well, they say there
should be low interest loans to homes to convert solar energy.
I think that aspect of it's quite good, but you
can't instruct companies. It's like the government saying I don't

(02:32):
like banks, although they don't own fifty one percent of
the banks. But instructing companies on how to operate to
me is just not part of what about this democratic
approach should be.

Speaker 1 (02:43):
This is my favorite part of the policy. The Greens
are also asking the government to ensure no households are
disconnected solely due to the inability to pay the bills. Asked,
at what point she would consider a household warranted disconnection
for nonpayment, as in like, how many bills do you
have to miss before you actually are disconnected? We Swarbrick
was unwilling to engage. I would rather not engage in

(03:03):
hypotheticals when all policy is hypotheticals. Isn't it totally totally
all right? Rip fees free?

Speaker 3 (03:12):
Yes? And of course it was the story. You're pressured
poor old Winston Peters.

Speaker 1 (03:17):
Do you realize how excited I am about this? Well,
it's a gigantic waste of money.

Speaker 3 (03:22):
Well indeed, and Winston let the cat out of the bag.
Now you know, budget leaks usually are treated very seriously
because you had to measure in an MMP government, you
can't have other parties sitting around the cabinet table, you're
discussing what you're going to do in the budget, and
then one breaks ranks and comes out and has headed

(03:43):
on radio on News Talk z B. It was on
your show, of course, on Friday, that Peter's was quite
open about free student fees for the third year of study,
which is what this coalition introduced after Labor introduced the
first year. They changed it days Winston said to be
scrapped in the budget. The Prime Minister, though it was

(04:03):
pretty relaxed about what all that had its post cabinet
news conference, even though we're standing alongside Nichola Willis, we.

Speaker 2 (04:11):
Were always going to do a pre budget announcement around
that it's a failed policy. It's a huge waste of
taxpayers money hasn't delivered at all, and it can be
better deployed doing other things like trades training. As we've
talked about. The bigger issue for me was that PHEES
three was a big y on first commitment and actually,
you know, give them real credit because they actually have
seen you know, that's a policy it's not working, So
you know, I really relaxed about it.

Speaker 1 (04:32):
He literally said, I'll give you a budget leak and you're.

Speaker 2 (04:35):
Not gonna he got I think you got here that, Jenna.
I think that's what happened.

Speaker 1 (04:40):
You're not You're not going to cat'sgate and minister for
leaking a part of the budget.

Speaker 3 (04:44):
Like what what what?

Speaker 1 (04:45):
I'm very relaxed.

Speaker 2 (04:46):
We're going to do a pre budget announcement. He got
Heathers on the radio and that's all good. He got
Heathers on the radio and that's all good.

Speaker 3 (04:55):
Oh yeah, dear, dear. Now I've been headed for many years,
of course. But when we talk about students and they're
not going to now though, well we'll have to, I
guess study in political science what being heathered is, and
that'll become part of the new lexicon of getting a
political science degree.

Speaker 1 (05:13):
One can only hope. One can only hope we make
it into into print in some way in the history
box off. That's the only way. It will be the
only way. Barry, Thank you, Barry Sober, seeing your political correspondent.

Speaker 3 (05:22):
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