Barry Soper: Senior Political Correspondent discusses latest polls

A new poll shows Labour's ratings fall, whilst Opportunity crosses the 5% threshold needed to make it in to Parliament. 

The latest Taxpayers' Union-Curia poll shows Labour dropping to 27.7%, whilst Opportunity has risen to 6.1%. 

Senior Political Correspondent Barry Soper told Heather du Plessis-Allan that now that Opportunity has crossed the line, it's policies will come under more scrutiny.

'It's always nice to see a party rising in the polls, but they've got to stand or fall on their policies.'

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
We have Barry Soper with us. Ibarry, Good afternoon.

Speaker 2 (00:03):
I'll tell you what David kundif would know exactly what
goes wrong with labor, given he was once the leader
of the.

Speaker 1 (00:09):
Party, given he was once what was wrong with labor.

Speaker 2 (00:12):
And he hates being a man. Of course, we don't.

Speaker 1 (00:14):
Now what do you make of this poll?

Speaker 2 (00:17):
Well, you'd have to say for Chris Luxon, he'll be
going into the weekend a bit happier than he's been
over the past couple of weeks because his own personal
rating as prime minister has gone up just over four percent,
which is extraordinary. No, no, yeah, no, it was twenty
four percent. I think I was overstating it. Yes, exactly,

(00:41):
It's still very low for a prime minister. But the
big movers in this, of course is Labor dropping in
this rogue poll. I think if you listen to Labor,
it's rogues who took part in this poll. They've dropped
three point seven percent, which is extraordinary really to just
on twenty eight percent. Now there'll be calls, of course,

(01:02):
for as there were when National dropped under thirty percent
for Chrssipkin's head.

Speaker 1 (01:08):
Well, no, because I mean that's cynical from you, because
I was not that people. Yeah no, people were not
calling for luxe and to be rolled. Someone in National.

Speaker 2 (01:18):
Try to roll hand, yes they did.

Speaker 1 (01:20):
So when someone in Labor tries to roll chippy, we
will also talk about that's right.

Speaker 2 (01:24):
I don't think you. I don't think that's going to
happen anyway.

Speaker 1 (01:27):
Roland for who.

Speaker 2 (01:28):
Yeah, well, you know it's ninety days out from the election,
so we've still got a lot of time to run
between now and then. And if you look at the
other parties, I mean National hardly climbed significantly in this poll.
They went up half a percent to thirty one percent,
so just over that thirty percent psychological barrier. The Greens

(01:49):
that've dropped slightly, they're just on ten percent. New Zealand
first they dropped on one point seven percent, and these
figures are so small. Yeah, when you consider the statistical
and error in these, they get just on nine percent.
Actor gained zero point four percent. The Maori Party really,

(02:10):
you know, they're over and out. They're on one and
a half percent now dropping two percent. So the big
winner in this, of course is Top Now they came
in at six point one percent. The old story is though, Heather,
When a party like top has talked about as much
as it has been, then people start to take notice

(02:31):
of it. And what they'll do, I would suspect between
now and polling day is that they will look at
the policies that this party is offering, look at them
more specifically than what they have been. So it's always
nice to see a party rising in the polls, but
they've got to stand or fall on their policies. And interestingly,

(02:52):
one of the gaffes that some would say that Chris
Luxon made was to write them off totally recently as
a co part of a party that could join the
National Party in coalition. That you know, I think maybe
was a little premature, given that on these doubles.

Speaker 1 (03:11):
I don't think we.

Speaker 2 (03:12):
Hang on on these figures. They would bring in eight
seats into Parliament and they could really decide on.

Speaker 1 (03:17):
Who was So you're not the first person to suggest
this to me today that he should not have ruled
out working with them, But Barry, he only did. I
think Luxon was right to do it because because it couldn't.

Speaker 2 (03:27):
Work with them look at their policies. Is no way exactly.

Speaker 1 (03:31):
On God's Earth that an Opportunity Party is going into
a coalition with ACT for exactly like these people are
so far left Barry. They want to make it okay.
They want to treat twenty four year old rapists like
their youth and basically let them off scot free through
the youth system. Like can you imagine.

Speaker 2 (03:52):
People now start looking at their policy.

Speaker 1 (03:55):
So to that point, Luxeon's done the right thing because
he couldn't work with them anyway. They were never going
to go.

Speaker 2 (04:00):
I was reflecting what people have been saying that. Yes,
I know I can see that. But you know, even
with the eight seats that Top would win, if these
pole results were translated into polling booth results, they would
still wouldn't have enough to be a majority government. The

(04:21):
old coalition or the current coalition i should say, would
go and that only have sixty one to fifty nine,
so it would be very close. So things are going
to be close. But I think this, like you said earlier,
is a bit of a trend that I've always believed
that labor shouldn't be as strong as it has been,
and I think again people are looking at the policies

(04:44):
that they are offering.

Speaker 1 (04:45):
I'll tell you what I think if the Nats are
looking probably looking at this pole and going okay, that
gives it, gives Lux in a reprieve, they can stick
it out with him for now. But I'm not sure
that that is actually necessarily the case, because look at
that margin. It is still sixty one on sixty one,
sixty one sixty one all the way through. Right now.
It is a tight election.

Speaker 2 (05:03):
Oh, it is a title election.

Speaker 1 (05:05):
Really.

Speaker 2 (05:06):
I still believe on election day it's not going to
be as tight. Because we still have ninety days to
run until the election. I think things are going to
change quite significantly between now and then.

Speaker 1 (05:17):
I suspect you're right, Barry. Thanks very much for more
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