Could this be the year that the Opportunity Party meets the threshold to get into Parliament?
Phillip Mills, the founder of gym franchise Les Mills International, has always supported Labour and the Greens, but he's topped up donations to TOP.
Political commentator Bryce Edwards says this upcoming election is TOP's best chance, as Labour, National and NZ First continue to lose favour.
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
And now question of course is read domestic politics. Is
(00:02):
this the year that the Opportunity Party finally makes it
into Parliament. The signs are looking more positive than ever,
ye'd have to say Les Mills founder Philip Mills has
doubled down on his donation. He put fifty thousand dollars
in January, then put another fifty thousand in last month.
There is a little bit of chatter about the possibility
of Labor maybe handing the party a safe seat, and
political commentator Bryce Edwards reckons this is the party's best
(00:24):
chance yet and he's with us Hi Bryce, Hi, Heather,
why do you think it's their best chance yet?
Speaker 2 (00:30):
I think there's a bit of a public desire at
the moment for someone other than who's in Parliament at
the moment. So Labor and National just are not really
attracting the votes. People are looking around for a minor party.
There's some people that are quite anti New Zealand first
at the moment. I think there's a bit more sort
of tiredness about them being the king maker and whatever
(00:53):
government you get is kind of reliant on Winston Peter's
and so top or now they call themselves Opportunity are
kind of positioning themselves to be the anti Winston Peter's party.
You know, vote for US and Labor or National won't
have to deal with Peters.
Speaker 1 (01:08):
I mean that's not strictly true, though, is it, Because
because even if they were to get in, you'd probably
still need for a left wing coalition, which is where
they You'd still need Winston, wouldn't you Labor plus Top
Bus Winston.
Speaker 2 (01:18):
I think it gives various parties more options. Yeah, it
doesn't necessarily rule out Peters from being in a government,
but it would certainly dilute his power. And so I'm
not sure that this is going to be the winning
formula for opportunity, but it certainly gives them a bit
more sort of color than they've had in the past,
you know, And I want to have really known what
(01:41):
the Top Party are for. You know, what do they
stand for? What, who are their voter base? Who are
they trying to attract?
Speaker 3 (01:47):
Well, I still doing it properly, Bryce, because because they
kind of pitch themselves as a centrist party, and then
I look at their policies, I go, you're not there's
like this is up straight up left wing policies economically,
so you don't find out actually at least, And I
wonder if they should be actually pitching themselves as a
better version of the left wing parties, like not as
as radical as the Greens, but not nearly as weird
(02:09):
as them, and also better at doing stuff than the
Labor Party.
Speaker 1 (02:12):
Isn't that where they should be pitching themselves.
Speaker 2 (02:14):
And I wonder if that is actually what they're thinking,
because there's a lot of homeless progressives I think at
the moment who aren't actually that impressed with Labor and
the Greens, but they aren't that keen on the coalition
government at the moment. They think Labor's kind of uninspiring,
has no policies, no charisma, and the Greens are a
(02:35):
bit crazy and more concerned with authentity politics, foreign policy, etc.
And so there's some people on the left or progressives
that actually do want an environmental party, do want a
party with some sort of bold radical policies that change things. Yeah,
So yeah, I think it might appeal to some of
those voters.
Speaker 1 (02:54):
I mean, the question is whether there's enough on the
left they can peel off from those two parties. But
what would help them immeasurably would be if they got
us safe. Do you think this idea of Labor handing
them something like Mount Albert is just as somebody's dreamt
this up? Or is this real?
Speaker 2 (03:08):
I hear the chatter, but I'm not putting any much
credibility into that. Look, I don't think Labor will want
to be seen to do a dodgy deal. I don't
think they. I mean, they are probably desperate to not
be anchored with Depati Mari, especially at the moment, so
that might sort of sharpen their thoughts on this. But no,
(03:29):
they don't give away electorates, and not Albert is a
very red electorate. It would be kind of pretty amazing
for them to give away just under a durn Helen
Clark hold electric to a center party.
Speaker 3 (03:41):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (03:41):
Unlikely. Okay, So you wrote a really great piece which
I was reading last night, in which you talk about
the possibility that they actually managed to get over the line.
But the difficulty that they've got, as you point out,
is that you have to get like to a credible
point of close to five percent or over it. Otherwise
people don't want to vote for you because they feel
like it's a wasted vote. So how do they get
to that point.
Speaker 2 (04:02):
Yeah, it's tricky, isn't It's a psychological thing for a
lot of voters that you know, I don't want to
waste your vote on someone that's only two percent in
the polls. Yeah, I mean, they've been going up a
bit in recent months and they kind of average out
about two point five percent, but that's just nowhere enough
to give anyone kind of that guarantee that your vote
is worth it. So I'm not sure what the answer is,
(04:22):
but I mean, they've got a leader now that is
quite impressive, and they've got some other candidates and personnel
that are impressive. But really they need to be a
bit more bold, I think, and not just their policy,
but playing the game a bit more, I guess, and
being showing people what they actually stand for rather than
(04:45):
just being kind of policy wonks with some you know,
whiteboards and you know, some vibes about public policy process.
Speaker 1 (04:54):
Yeah, fair enough, listen, I want to get your take
on something that I've been thinking about. This is the
Maori Party because obviously the Labor Party want to properly
kill them off at the selection. But if they kill
them off they do, it's a difficult thing to do
because you have to then get as radical. You have
to go really left wing for the Maori seats to
kind of kill off the Maori Party and beat them
at that. But then you still have to retain the
center vote across the general population, which is a tough
(05:16):
one to do. I wondered about Labor. Do you disagree
with me?
Speaker 2 (05:21):
I disagree with that, h Go. I think that I
think Maray voters in the Marry electrics aren't necessarily even
after radical visions, they really want a focus on the
basics of health, education, jobs, housing, etc. And when Labor
won those seven seats in twenty seventeen, they made a
(05:41):
clean sweep. That's what they focused on. They didn't actually
talk about Marie sovereignty or.
Speaker 1 (05:47):
Hasn't the conversation moved on though in the last ten years, Bryson,
aren't people in those seats maybe up for that kind
of nonsense?
Speaker 2 (05:53):
Maybe maybe, but no, I think more than ever people
are really focused on what we might call material politics,
the things that actually affect you in the back pocket.
And that's you know, I think more so with Mario
voters than ever before.
Speaker 1 (06:07):
Actually, yeah, interesting, Actually you I think it might be right, Bryce,
Thank you very much.
Speaker 3 (06:11):
Bryce.
Speaker 1 (06:11):
Edwards, political commentator. For more from Hither Duplessy Alan Drive,
listen live to news talks it'd be from four pm weekdays,
or follow the podcast on iHeartRadio
And now question of course is read domestic politics. Is
(00:02):
this the year that the Opportunity Party finally makes it
into Parliament. The signs are looking more positive than ever,
ye'd have to say Les Mills founder Philip Mills has
doubled down on his donation. He put fifty thousand dollars
in January, then put another fifty thousand in last month.
There is a little bit of chatter about the possibility
of Labor maybe handing the party a safe seat, and
political commentator Bryce Edwards reckons this is the party's best
(00:24):
chance yet and he's with us Hi Bryce, Hi, Heather,
why do you think it's their best chance yet?
Speaker 2 (00:30):
I think there's a bit of a public desire at
the moment for someone other than who's in Parliament at
the moment. So Labor and National just are not really
attracting the votes. People are looking around for a minor party.
There's some people that are quite anti New Zealand first
at the moment. I think there's a bit more sort
of tiredness about them being the king maker and whatever
(00:53):
government you get is kind of reliant on Winston Peter's
and so top or now they call themselves Opportunity are
kind of positioning themselves to be the anti Winston Peter's party.
You know, vote for US and Labor or National won't
have to deal with Peters.
Speaker 1 (01:08):
I mean that's not strictly true, though, is it, Because
because even if they were to get in, you'd probably
still need for a left wing coalition, which is where
they You'd still need Winston, wouldn't you Labor plus Top
Bus Winston.
Speaker 2 (01:18):
I think it gives various parties more options. Yeah, it
doesn't necessarily rule out Peters from being in a government,
but it would certainly dilute his power. And so I'm
not sure that this is going to be the winning
formula for opportunity, but it certainly gives them a bit
more sort of color than they've had in the past,
you know, And I want to have really known what
(01:41):
the Top Party are for. You know, what do they
stand for? What, who are their voter base? Who are
they trying to attract?
Speaker 3 (01:47):
Well, I still doing it properly, Bryce, because because they
kind of pitch themselves as a centrist party, and then
I look at their policies, I go, you're not there's
like this is up straight up left wing policies economically,
so you don't find out actually at least, And I
wonder if they should be actually pitching themselves as a
better version of the left wing parties, like not as
as radical as the Greens, but not nearly as weird
(02:09):
as them, and also better at doing stuff than the
Labor Party.
Speaker 1 (02:12):
Isn't that where they should be pitching themselves.
Speaker 2 (02:14):
And I wonder if that is actually what they're thinking,
because there's a lot of homeless progressives I think at
the moment who aren't actually that impressed with Labor and
the Greens, but they aren't that keen on the coalition
government at the moment. They think Labor's kind of uninspiring,
has no policies, no charisma, and the Greens are a
(02:35):
bit crazy and more concerned with authentity politics, foreign policy, etc.
And so there's some people on the left or progressives
that actually do want an environmental party, do want a
party with some sort of bold radical policies that change things. Yeah,
So yeah, I think it might appeal to some of
those voters.
Speaker 1 (02:54):
I mean, the question is whether there's enough on the
left they can peel off from those two parties. But
what would help them immeasurably would be if they got
us safe. Do you think this idea of Labor handing
them something like Mount Albert is just as somebody's dreamt
this up? Or is this real?
Speaker 2 (03:08):
I hear the chatter, but I'm not putting any much
credibility into that. Look, I don't think Labor will want
to be seen to do a dodgy deal. I don't
think they. I mean, they are probably desperate to not
be anchored with Depati Mari, especially at the moment, so
that might sort of sharpen their thoughts on this. But no,
(03:29):
they don't give away electorates, and not Albert is a
very red electorate. It would be kind of pretty amazing
for them to give away just under a durn Helen
Clark hold electric to a center party.
Speaker 3 (03:41):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (03:41):
Unlikely. Okay, So you wrote a really great piece which
I was reading last night, in which you talk about
the possibility that they actually managed to get over the line.
But the difficulty that they've got, as you point out,
is that you have to get like to a credible
point of close to five percent or over it. Otherwise
people don't want to vote for you because they feel
like it's a wasted vote. So how do they get
to that point.
Speaker 2 (04:02):
Yeah, it's tricky, isn't It's a psychological thing for a
lot of voters that you know, I don't want to
waste your vote on someone that's only two percent in
the polls. Yeah, I mean, they've been going up a
bit in recent months and they kind of average out
about two point five percent, but that's just nowhere enough
to give anyone kind of that guarantee that your vote
is worth it. So I'm not sure what the answer is,
(04:22):
but I mean, they've got a leader now that is
quite impressive, and they've got some other candidates and personnel
that are impressive. But really they need to be a
bit more bold, I think, and not just their policy,
but playing the game a bit more, I guess, and
being showing people what they actually stand for rather than
(04:45):
just being kind of policy wonks with some you know,
whiteboards and you know, some vibes about public policy process.
Speaker 1 (04:54):
Yeah, fair enough, listen, I want to get your take
on something that I've been thinking about. This is the
Maori Party because obviously the Labor Party want to properly
kill them off at the selection. But if they kill
them off they do, it's a difficult thing to do
because you have to then get as radical. You have
to go really left wing for the Maori seats to
kind of kill off the Maori Party and beat them
at that. But then you still have to retain the
center vote across the general population, which is a tough
(05:16):
one to do. I wondered about Labor. Do you disagree
with me?
Speaker 2 (05:21):
I disagree with that, h Go. I think that I
think Maray voters in the Marry electrics aren't necessarily even
after radical visions, they really want a focus on the
basics of health, education, jobs, housing, etc. And when Labor
won those seven seats in twenty seventeen, they made a
(05:41):
clean sweep. That's what they focused on. They didn't actually
talk about Marie sovereignty or.
Speaker 1 (05:47):
Hasn't the conversation moved on though in the last ten years, Bryson,
aren't people in those seats maybe up for that kind
of nonsense?
Speaker 2 (05:53):
Maybe maybe, but no, I think more than ever people
are really focused on what we might call material politics,
the things that actually affect you in the back pocket.
And that's you know, I think more so with Mario
voters than ever before.
Speaker 1 (06:07):
Actually, yeah, interesting, Actually you I think it might be right, Bryce,
Thank you very much.
Speaker 3 (06:11):
Bryce.
Speaker 1 (06:11):
Edwards, political commentator. For more from Hither Duplessy Alan Drive,
listen live to news talks it'd be from four pm weekdays,
or follow the podcast on iHeartRadio
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