David Cunliffe: Former Labour Leader discusses Hipkins' 'rogue poll' accusations

Labour Leader Chris Hipkins has called the latest Taxpayers' Union-Curia poll an 'outlier'. 

The poll shows Labour dropping from 31.5% to 27.8%, while National received a slight uptick to reach 31%. 

Former Labour Party Leader David Cunliffe told Heather du Plessis-Allan that even though this poll may be an outlier, Labour should still be cautious. 

'I'd say it's an outlier, and I think the thing that makes, the most sense is to look at the poll of polls, but there is some movement in that that labour needs to take a real close eye on.'

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Good afternoon. Chris Hopkins is calling it a rogue pole.
This is the Taxpayer's Union Curier pole, which has Labour
now slumping to twenty seven point eight percent, National is
on thirty one percent. Opportunity would officially enter Parliament on
just over six percent. David Cunliff is a former leader
of the Labor Party and with us.

Speaker 2 (00:15):
Hi, David, Hey, how are you?

Speaker 3 (00:18):
I'm very well, thank you, it's good to talk to you.
Do you agree with him that it's a rogue pole.

Speaker 2 (00:22):
I'd say it's an outlier and I think the thing
that makes the most sense is look at the pole
of poles, But there is some movement in that that
Labor needs to take a real close eye on.

Speaker 3 (00:31):
And do you mean the trend downwards that?

Speaker 2 (00:35):
Well, the trend Yeah, they picked in March, it looks
like and they've flattened since then and the last couple
of poles aren't good news for them, so that they
do need to be asking themselves how do they put
more gas in the tank?

Speaker 3 (00:47):
Yeah, Well, what do you think is going on here?
Why is the trend down for them?

Speaker 2 (00:52):
Well? Can I just zoo the lens out for a
little bit and answer that in a couple of bits.
First thing is this is a really really volatile close race.
It's anybody game, and one hundred days out, more so
than we've seen in about five elections. Normally you can
pick the winner by now, I certainly cold in twenty
fourteen you can't pick it here, and the herald pole

(01:12):
of polls, which is just pretty reliable as saying, you know,
can't pick one. Second thing that's really really unusual is
the rise of the Opportunity Party. They've busted the five
percent threshold. It looks very much like they're going to
be in parliament and possibly on something like eight or
nine or ten percent, and then that changes the game.
It takes the kingmaker role off New Zealand first, and

(01:35):
it makes it very important not that National Labor can
necessarily put together a coalition, but who's got the largest
single vote, which is very close, because that would be
who Opportunity starts to negotiate with first. And so this
is a really really unusual and really really open race.
Nobody can pick it right now.

Speaker 3 (01:55):
Do you think that Labour's going to stick it out
with Chippy.

Speaker 2 (01:58):
One hundred percent? I imagine that you had other commentators
including your dear Barry say, there isn't probably a lot
of hands up to take the job right now. And look,
Chris Hipkins is polling better than many opposition leaders have
done in the run up to an election. I think
the issue is that voters are probably looking for something

(02:21):
a little bit more strategic, a little bit more of
a recipe for the future than the isolated, although attractive
policies that they've so far launched. They want to know
what the game plan is and I don't think that
that's been delivered yet.

Speaker 3 (02:34):
Do you think National's going to stick it out with
Chris Luckson.

Speaker 2 (02:37):
I think so. Again, it's some desperate stuff if you
change a leader this close to the election. Labor did
it with the Dern in twenty seventeen and they went
up twenty percent in five weeks, which was incredible, But
that happens once in the generation. I think we could
probably safely say that Chris Luxon is no John Key,

(02:57):
and he's no Helen Clark, and he's not dominated here.
This is still neck and neck between National and Labor.
But Labor does need to show that small target politics
has probably run out of steam and they unless they
start going up a gear, find another gear. They are
at risk of slipping further.

Speaker 3 (03:16):
Okay, and what do they need to do, David, to
find another gear?

Speaker 2 (03:20):
Well agin in about you, But most people I talk
to are saying that they're not hearing a recipe for
success for New Zealand from either the current government or
the current main opposition party, and that is reflected in
the pole Poles, which shows that the combined support for
Labor and National is the lowest in thirty forty years.

(03:42):
And this is also the most volatile race since MMP began.
So that tells you that New Zealand is on average
a pretty bloody grumpy. They've been doing it tough for
a number of years. Nothing seems to be working case.
There are, of course headwinds overseas, but that doesn't fully
explain the fact that our product activity is drifting relative
to the OECD average, and neither side has come up

(04:05):
with a recipe for success. It's not just pouring concrete
and it's not just free doctors' visits.

Speaker 3 (04:12):
I think that's a fair point from you, David, Thanks
very much, appreciate it. David Kunler, Former Labor Party leaders.

Speaker 2 (04:17):
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