Dr Lara Greaves: Victoria University associate professor in politics on what Mariameno Kapa-Kingi's departure means for Te Pati Māori

A political science lecturer says party affiliation isn't everything in Māori seats, as Mariameno Kapa-Kingi breaks away.

She's cut ties with Te Pati Māori to create the Te Tai Tokerau Party and run in the seat of the same name.

Te Pati Māori's wished her well - but is promising to put up another candidate to take her on. 

Victoria University's Lara Greaves says it's an open race for all seven seats. 

"They're hyper-local, so local issues are really important - but also, sometimes, strategy is important. Again, really hard to tell." 

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Good afternoon. The predicted possible collapse of the Maori Party
may have started with mariamnal Kapa King announcing that she
is starting her own party. It will be called the
teta I talk it O Party, which reflects the tete
I talk it O electra that she's running in. She
told The Hoy that she and the other female MPs
of the Maori Party have discussed the internal issues they face.

Speaker 2 (00:18):
As Marty woman in taparty. Mary and the conditions in
which we had to work with and were tough for
all of us, and so we would we would share
those things, we would talk about those things.

Speaker 1 (00:32):
Doctor Lara Greaves, as a Maori politics a commentator and
associate professor in politics at the University of Victoriana.

Speaker 3 (00:39):
Is with us.

Speaker 1 (00:39):
Now, Hi, Lara Kyoda. Do you think this is the
start of a possible collapse.

Speaker 3 (00:45):
Yeah, potentially. I mean, it's one of those things of
Marty politics. It's really hard to see what will happen
in these electorate's. Ultimately, you know they're height to local,
so local issues are really important, but also sometimes strategy
is important. Again, really hard to tell what exactly will
happen in the electorates, but what we do have in electorates,
like tetey Tokato is now a four way race potentially

(01:06):
between Party Mahdi, the New Party, the Greens and Labor.
So there's just so much road to run still, but
ultimately vote splitting will be at play, and just yeah,
a lot of potential other dramas.

Speaker 1 (01:19):
So Takusa Ferris is already out, Muddy a men A
couple king He is already out. It sounds like Hannah
might be Rafiti Clark may also leave that only leaves
or any Kuiperer Why is she stick here?

Speaker 3 (01:30):
Yeah, So what we're really looking to now is whether
Takuza Ferist does a really similar thing to Muddy and
men a Cup of Kingi and starts up as kind
of Tetaitonga party. A big question there. Will they align
in some way? But if any Kuiperter and Afty might
be Clark, will they leave to Party Mahdi, because that
would be a huge blow to them, right because Afati's
got like such name recognition and even like you know,

(01:53):
she's known around the world for the viral hucker, so
like it would be a big, big issue for them
and a big problem Newest MP or any Kaipita. You
know she did had quite a convincing when in that
by election. I mean, that would be another blow to them,
and then they ultimately would only have the leaders left.
So I mean it's it's it's not really looking good
for de Party Marty at this point.

Speaker 1 (02:13):
Of the four MPs who are not the leaders, being
Debbie and obviously at Ahiti, of the four MPs, how
many of them would win their seats back if they
if they if they defected from the Maori Party, well, it's.

Speaker 3 (02:26):
Really hard to know that. So basically we know the
Mardi population is really young. Turnout is quite variable, especially
among young Marty, and we kind of can see that
in a lot of those electorates. We have quite strong
Labor Party candidates coming through, people with a bit of
governance experience and fucker popper and experience and the electorates.
So there's a lot of issues to consider there as

(02:47):
to whether voters will kind of go with the Marti
Party incumbents or will try someone new, or whether they'll
kind of be sick of what's happened with Fency Party
Marty when they haven't been focusing on the issues. This
is one of those things where all of these races.
Is there anybody's game, really, anybody's race, It's going to
be hard to predict even on the night. Will be
shocked again? Will be shocked again?

Speaker 1 (03:05):
Most likely? Give me your take on what Labour's going
to do here, because Labor's made it very clear that
they're going to try and annihilate the Maori Party, right,
but in order to do that you almost have to
out Malory Party the Maori Party, So you have to
go quite far, like I would say, quite radical to
that side. Does that affect the Labor parties in the
determination to take this party out on one side of them?
Does it affect their ability to appeal to center voters?

Speaker 3 (03:28):
I mean, that's a really good question, and it's one
of the things that I'll be watching too as well.
You know, for quite a few elections now, the Labor
Party has run a Maori manifesto or a Mardi center campaign,
you know, Willie Jackson's run it. And so that's what
they'll be trying to balance, to make sure that they
don't have anything that looks kind of too radical for
that center voter that they're trying to attract. It's like
a really hard balance of them. But I would say

(03:49):
that the candidates they have people with that kind of
governance experience, people who are kind of well known and
having those sort of more corporate roles or development roles.
So perhaps the kind of candidates that will be quite good.
Be sure they're measured and they're speaking, that they stick
to their talking points, but then kind of signal nudge
nudge when gwenk Houseware. So they've kind of got a

(04:09):
good candidate selection there of the kind of people who
probably can say that more middle of the road message.

Speaker 1 (04:15):
Yeah, Lara, it's good to talk to you mate. Thank you,
Doctor Lara Greaves Marty politics commentator, Associate professor and politics
at Victoria University. For more from Heather Duplessy Allen Drive,
listen live to news talks. It'd be from four pm weekdays,
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