Gil Barndollar: former US Marine on the US-Iran conflict starting back up again

Strikes have reignited between the US and Iran, with no sign of letting up.

Donald Trump's ruled the ceasefire over, saying the US has hit 90 targets in a second day of bombing.

He's blaming Iran hitting ships in the Strait of Hormuz, which has now unleashed strikes on Bahrain and Kuwait.

Former US Marine Gil Barndollar says Iran's back to targeting US military bases - as it did when war broke out.

"I think, initially, earlier in the campaign, they'd behave in a pretty rational manner - maybe not what people want to hear - but they kind of escalated gradually, striking US installations."

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Donald Trump strikes on Iran and now in their second
day overnight at NATO, he's declared the ceasepy over he
called Iran's leaders scum. Iran has struck back at Bahrain
in retaliation. Gil barn Dollar, as a non resident fellow
at Defense Priorities in a former US marine who actually
served in Bahrain, high Gil, how are you very well?
Thank you? What do you reckons the endgame here for
Donald Trump?

Speaker 2 (00:21):
Well, that presumes there is one. I mean, I think
this could go in a bunch of different directions. But
it may be we may just be in for another
cycle like we've kind of seen, only more pronounced of
just episodic strikes by both sides and no real resolution
to this, to this war that's suddenly hot again, it seems.

Speaker 1 (00:39):
Does it seem to like there's a pattern on what
they're striking. I mean, they seem to be going for
the military infrastructure again in the port infrastructure.

Speaker 2 (00:46):
Yeah, the Iranians I think of I think initially, you know,
earlier in the campaign, they'd be even a pretty rational manner.
It may not be, you know, maybe not be what
people want to hear, but they kind of escalated gradually
striking US installations, and then and then started putting economic
pressure on the GCC states right by hitting oil infrastructure,

(01:06):
you know, airports, all kinds of infrastructure within within the
Gulf States. Right now they're back to hitting US military
facilities the most part. I think, although I've seen a
little bit of kind of mixed reporting on this, it's
probably a little bit unclear. So you know, all those
those facilities have mostly been evacuated, uh that, and that
happened early in the war, even before the beginning of hostilities.
So you know, the fifth fleet put to sea from Bahrain,

(01:27):
those ships aren't there. You know, US Air Air Force
jets are not really using are not using aludaide and cutter,
and the US presence in Kuwait, which sometimes has a
brigade plus you know, has been has been cut down.
So they're causing they're causing damage, and it has both
symbolism and also also makes it a lot harder for
the US to reoccupy those bases, you know, when and

(01:47):
if this war comes to a conclusion.

Speaker 1 (01:49):
Okay, So do you think that the Iranians possibly overplayed
their hand when they targeted those three ships a couple
of days ago.

Speaker 2 (01:57):
I think it. You know, it really comes down to
something that I think nobody outside Iran has has a
good read on, which is the degree of economic pressure
they're facing. And you know, you can get folks that
are really that are oil industry experts in particular, or
sanctions experts, to look at the degree to which the
Iranians can withstand, you know, a closure to have their
oil exports shut off. Obviously the US had taken unprecedented

(02:20):
steps and in terms of letting Iran sell it's oil
on the open market. Now that's all been shut back.
So I think the economic pressure is the big thing.
But I think the Iranian bet, and as it has
been for really the duration of this war, is that
they can take that kind of economic punishment longer than
the US or than the westri at large can.

Speaker 1 (02:38):
So, as you say, we are just guessing at the moment,
but what would your base get a bit? What would
your beast guess? Oh lord, I can't even get the
English out. What would be your best guess? Would it
be that we're in for just a few days of
bombing or this is back into the like weeks long thing.

Speaker 2 (02:52):
I suspect that we're going to be back and do
a week's long back and forth. I mean, what what
worries me more is that President Trump will do something
being much more dramatic and escalatory. To be honest, I
hope he doesn't have the stomach or does have the
sense not to do that. You know, he's talked openly
about about potentially seizing carg Island, which would be I
think a really dangerous proposition, not in terms of the

(03:14):
US being able to do it, but in terms of
casual these American forces would take in the days afterwards.
And you know, there's been some reporting that the UN
I've heard this secondhand as well, that the United States
came very close to doing a kind of joint Special
Operations Command raid to try to seize highly enricheranium. Now
we're talking a couple of months ago when the war
was at its height, but I think something like that

(03:35):
would have been been an absolute disaster in the making.
So I think there are a lot of options back
on the table, even if they're not super likely. That
seemed to be off the table, you know, until recently.

Speaker 1 (03:46):
Right, Gil, thank you very much, it's good to talk
to you. Thanks for you expertise. Gil Band doll A
Senior Fellow or non Resident Fellow at Defense Priorities. For
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