Jamie Mackay: The Country host on the global uncertainties impacting Kiwi farmers

New Zealand sheep and beef farmers are set to see strong returns for the 25/26 season, but there's global factors impacting the outlook.

Concerns have been raised over the US tariffs situation and the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.

The Country's Jamie Mackay explained further. 

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Jamie mckaye, Host of the Countries with US l O
Jamie good Ay. Heather, Right, so this investigation into the
lamb exports, tell me about it.

Speaker 2 (00:08):
Well, Bloody Trump, he's going to get us one way
or another. He's making farming. In fact, he's making business
pretty tough in this country at the moment. You might
remember on Tuesday evening we were talking about beef and
lamb New Zealand's mid season update, and a couple of
the key risk factors were obviously the Middle East goes
without saying in the US trade policy. Well, an investigation

(00:29):
into New Zealand and Australian lamb exports to the US
looks set to proceed. As US President Donald Trump searches
for replacements for his Liberation Day tariffs. The US International
Trade Commission can investigate where the surges and imports are
causing serious injury to the US domestic market and industries. Now,

(00:54):
the numbers are not insignificant here, Heather. The American sheep
farmers are none too happy. While they're happy to take
all the beef we can offer, they're not so happy
about the sheep meat. Because imports increased forty five percent
between twenty twenty and twenty twenty three. In fact, Australia
and New Zealand accounted for ninety nine percent of imports

(01:14):
over that time. Now, the one meat industry source has
said February's ruling against Trump's Liberation Day tariffs by the
US Supreme Court mean that the administration, as I said,
is looking for any means possible to get its tariff
agenda back on track. Because New Zealand sheep meat exports
to the US currently facing ten percent that's down from

(01:36):
the fifteen percent before the ruling. It's not chicken feed
what we're sending over there. E though meat sheep meat
export value rows ten percent to six hundred and eighty
five million in the past year, so it's a sizeable market.
Forest beef and lamb. New Zealand chair Kate Ackland is
arguing that counter seasonality we provide lamb in their off

(01:59):
season production means it's not a direct threat to US producers.
But I don't think the American sheep farmers heather are
buying that for one moment.

Speaker 1 (02:08):
No, hey, listen. So is it the case that the
arable farmers who were supplying waters and McCain's are now
actually getting out about it, getting out of arable farming.

Speaker 2 (02:16):
Well they are if they can, and we're particularly seeing
this and the likes of Canterbury. No one seems to know,
not even the high you know, the people in highest places,
like you know, the likes of Miles Hurrel can tell
us exactly. Maybe someone an e can can. How many
conversions are happening in Canterbury this season. We're hearing this
is dairy conversions. We're hearing sort of twenty to fifty.

(02:37):
But what's happened to these poor old arable farmers. They
haven't had a great season weather wise. Now they're hit
with the double whammy of fuel and fertilizer diesels more
than double fertilizer prices tip to follow suit. They literally
just can't make a buck. And when you look at
some of the numbers, a combine harvester can use up

(02:59):
to a thousand liters of diesel a day. So it's
no surprise that these arable farmers are rarely struggling. Of course,
it's not easy. It's not like turning on a tap
switching from arable farming to dairy farming or another land use.
You have to have consents and then you have to
change whatever you're doing and your farming practices. But experts

(03:19):
are suggesting farmers look maybe to change into crops that
need less care and attention in the spring and therefore
cheaper to grow. You may get less income off them,
but the costs for putting them in could be considerably less.
Now the fertilizer prices, that is a bit of a
nightmare at the moment. I know the fuels getting all
the attention, but the likes of your rear prices. I'll

(03:40):
use Australia as an example. Australian sixteen hundred dollars a ton.
That's more than double. Now you've got to remember. I'll
leave you with one more fact. Half of the world's
food heather is grown by nitrogen. So you know, if
we don't produce it or we can't get enough of it,
people are going to go home.

Speaker 1 (04:00):
Interesting. Hey listen, well, I say interesting, but also really scary. Listen,
Thank you very much. Jamie is always talked to you.
Next week Jammie Mackay, Host of the Country.

Speaker 2 (04:08):
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