Kelly Eckhold: Westpac Chief Economist on job ads falling for the third month in a row

The uncertain economic environment could be the reason for climbing unemployment and declining job ads.

The latest Seek data shows job ads fell 0.8 percent last month, the third consecutive month of decline.

It suggests conditions remain strongest in the South Island, while centres like Auckland, Wellington, and Waikato face greater headwinds. 

Westpac Chief Economist Kelly Eckhold says the labour market has not emerged unscathed from the Iran war. 

"Perhaps at the start of the year, they were looking forward to a much better year, but business confidence really got buffeted around the last three or four months." 

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Keller duper Cela nineteen past five.

Speaker 2 (00:02):
Now, employment seems to be a little bit of a
lag in terms of the economic recovery. According to seek Data,
job ads in July fell about a percentage boy, it
was actually zero point eight percent. This is the third
consecutive month to month drop and the applications for jobs
are continuing to climb. Kelliacold is the chief economist at
Westpacken with us high Kelly, Hi, unemployment's peaks, but do

(00:22):
you think we're going to bunce around the bottom for
a bit here?

Speaker 3 (00:25):
Yeah, it seems likely. I mean, the labor market didn't
really emerge unscathed from the Iram War, probably just put
off for three to six months some of the decisions
businesses might have otherwise made to hire, and we're seeing
the implications of that and the unemployment rate and job
adds growth which is just coming off a little bit now.

Speaker 2 (00:48):
So why why put it off? Is it just to
kind of assess the situation a bit, make sure it's
the right decision.

Speaker 3 (00:54):
I think a lot of firms have just been a
bit concerned about the uncertain environment. Perhaps at the start
of the year they were looking forward to a much
better year but business confidence really got buffeted around the
last three or four months as the petrol price went
up and down, sab the consumers as well, and it's
been easier just to tack some of these decisions to touch.

Speaker 2 (01:15):
What do you think the election is going to do
to it?

Speaker 3 (01:18):
Well, the same risk as there again. I mean, the
polls suggest that things are quite close, and the business
to generally views the risks of a move to a
left landing government more negatively. So, you know, I would
have thought for the next couple of months or so,
businesses may feel like things are in a state of
flux until it becomes clear who's going to be in

(01:40):
charge of the country.

Speaker 2 (01:41):
I suppose if we want to get jobs, we've got
to go into the mining, resources and energy. What's going
on there that they're going up like that?

Speaker 3 (01:47):
Well, commodity prices are very strong. Those global semiconductor markets
are very strong, and anything that derives off that is
quite strong. Same with commodity markets in general. Agricultural commodities
still in reasonably decent demand. That's why we see employment
trends in the South Island in particular being quite a

(02:08):
bit stronger than in the North Island.

Speaker 2 (02:10):
All right, Kelly, thanks very much, appreciate it. Kelly called
West Pax Chief Economists.

Speaker 1 (02:14):
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