Liam Dann: NZ Herald business editor at large on New Zealand's GDP going up by 0.2 percent

New Zealand's GDP grew 0.2 percent in March, according to new data.

This officially takes the country out of a technical recession, but on a per-capita basis, it went backwards 0.3 percent.

Experts predict a weak economy for the latter half of this year.

NZ Herald business editor at large Liam Dann says the economy isn't likely to bounce back just yet.

LISTEN ABOVE

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
We've broken out of recession officially. How good is that?
But it's margin of ara stuff. The economy grew zero
point two percent in Q one. That's the upper end
of expectations. Liam Dan's The Herald's business editor at large
and with us, Liam, Hello, did I Heather got to
take a win when we get one?

Speaker 2 (00:13):
Right? I guess. Look, I'm pretty downbeat about it. I
think it's all about per capita, really, isn't it, in
terms of how people are feeling on the ground. I
basically don't want to be the guy shouting about it's
all over when we know that it's not all over
and that the next few months are going to be
pretty tough. To me, it's really all about when those

(00:37):
interest rates start coming down. So you know, we can
talk about February or May or September if you're the
Reserve Bank. But I think the idea of a downturn
we're still very much in it.

Speaker 1 (00:48):
Yeah, I mean I was saying earlier, and I still
think that whether they're going to move in November because
of just how stuffed we are. But I mean, as
somebody pointed out before, the inflation doesn't warrant that.

Speaker 2 (00:57):
Does it. Warrant in terms of yeah, well no it
doesn't yet. I mean it could. You could be quite right,
and I hope you are that that because it's so bad,
particularly in that services sector. We're seeing that coming off
a bit of a cliff. And you know that that
end of the economy that's you know that we really
feel is where all that non tradable inflation was so

(01:20):
non tradable inflation is sticky, it's something like five point
eight percent, and tradeable which is imported food and oil
and stuff, is down one point six or something very low.
The non tradable is the bad stuff. We know that
people are afraid that it will stick there and will
be but actually, if the economy really tanks, and you
know in those areas that we saw today under the

(01:41):
hood on the GDP, it could come away quite fast.
So yeah, you're right. There's a few economists Tony Alexander
Kiwi Bank who still think and and some of the
international ones capital economics and things still think November is
as possible. It confuses that having that zero point to
growth in some ways have been cleaner if we've actually gone,

(02:01):
oh it's really really terrible. The top line still down
we're still in recession.

Speaker 1 (02:04):
But hey, how many more inflation numbers do we get
before November? We've got one in October, don't.

Speaker 2 (02:09):
We That's a good question. We must have two more,
I think.

Speaker 1 (02:14):
Yeah, two more for it to come back and then
and convince Adrian.

Speaker 2 (02:19):
Yeah, and as you know, we don't get we don't
get the data quickly enough to really really give them
much opportunity to turn around. They'll be nervous because you know,
we can't control that tradeable So if you'll see in
the UK that they've got the CPI inflation down around
two percent and they're still not coming because their non
tradable inflation is up around you know, five point eighty

(02:40):
six percent or something, and that's the bit that reserve
bank central banks can control. And so if you've got
that up high and then you have an oil shock
or something like that, then you're back into the horrible
stagflation and everything. So so you know, I understand why
they're nervous. We want to see it, you know, squashed
and held off. Yeah, November hopefully.

Speaker 1 (03:01):
Yeah, fingers cross, fingers cross, let's go for that, Liam,
Thank you so much. Liam Dan, the Herald's business editor
at large.

Speaker 2 (03:06):
For more from Hither Duplessy Allen Drive, listen live to
news talks it'd B from four pm weekdays, or follow
the podcast on iHeartRadio