Mark Douglas: Maritime Domain analyst says fuel crisis won't hit yet, long term concern

The war in Iran has sparked worldwide concerns of fuel shortages after the Strait of Hormuz was shut. The passage carries roughly 20 percent of the world's oil supply. 

The final oil tankers that made it through the strait before it's closure have now reached Singapore. 

Although, Starboard Maritime Intelligence analyst Mark Douglas says the fuel crisis might come later than expected. 

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
The last of the oil tankers that made it through
the Strait of Hormuz before it shut down have now
arrived in Singapore. Now this is significant for New Zealand
because Singapore and South Korea are the two places where
we get most of our fuel from. So it means
if there's going to be some sort of a disruption,
we're about to find out about it. Mark Douglass is
an analyst with Starboard Maritime Intelligence. They track ships around
the globe and he's with us.

Speaker 2 (00:20):
High Mark, Hi, how are you.

Speaker 1 (00:22):
I'm very well, thank you. So do you think we're
going to feel a disruption?

Speaker 2 (00:27):
Not initially. So I'm looking at my screen and I
can see nine tankers all making their way to New
Zealand from the likes of Singapore, South Korea and Japan.
So in the short term, as I think the Finance
Minister has said, there's plenty of fuel on the way.
But in the long term, certainly it's going to start
to buy it. When when So it takes time to

(00:48):
refine the fuel, but it's already happening in the pumps.
It's going up and it's going to get worse from there.
As the longer the disruption comes. Luckily, the likes of
Saudi Arabia are moving where they load tankers to other
points that aren't affected by the crisses with Iran. But
that's still going to reduce the flow coming out.

Speaker 1 (01:06):
So you'd normally get obviously it would be pretty regular
arrivals in Singapore. What is going to be the gap,
what's going to be the delay between the ships that
have arrived now that got through the Strait of Humors
and whatever arrives next.

Speaker 2 (01:20):
So the last of them left on the twenty eighth
and it's now the eleventh, so twelve days. Let's call
it actually two weeks at least before between when the
straits finally open up, when the vessels actually managed to
load leave and then get to Singapore, and from there
they need to be unloaded. Product needs to get refined
and then loaded onto the product tankers to make its way.

Speaker 1 (01:38):
To New Zealand, which means that what if we haven't
got anything coming through right now, it's going to be
a delay of at least two weeks.

Speaker 2 (01:45):
At least two weeks.

Speaker 1 (01:46):
Yeah, you seeing any ships come through it all.

Speaker 2 (01:50):
Coming through the Straits of Hormos. I have seen one
bulk carrier make it through today and it was proudly
displaying its destination as Chinese crew.

Speaker 1 (01:58):
Okay, so what I've read it is that at the
moment what is getting through is Iranian and it's going
dark because of the radar jamming, and it's on its
way to China. So they just are letting some ship
through their own vessels to make money. Is that what's happening?

Speaker 2 (02:11):
Yes, absolutely, so it's in Iran's best interest to continue
the flow of oil, and their biggest customer is China.
But they've also seen reports that they're also considering leading
Indian vessels through as well, so that they can continue
the flow of oil to that country.

Speaker 1 (02:24):
Okay, so what is the most likely outcome here? Are
we going to be dealing because obviously there's a difference
between running out and high prices, although they can be combined.
Are we more likely to be faced with high prices
than running out altogether and having rationing?

Speaker 2 (02:39):
Yeah, at this point, it absolutely looks like higher prices
are far more likely than running out altogether.

Speaker 1 (02:45):
All right, Mark, thank you very much, made appreciate it.
Mark Douglas, Starboard Maritime Intelligence. They watch all the ships around.

Speaker 3 (02:50):
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