April 20, 2026 • 9 mins
The Finance Minister has raised some concerns over NZ First's bid to break up the supermarket duopoly.
NZ First has announced that if re-elected, it will split Foodstuffs into two nationwide co-operates: one for New World and Four Square, and the other for Pak'nSave.
Nicola Willis says it's good idea, but it needs to be carefully implemented.
"That's why I've been taking my time working through proposals, looking very carefully at costs, very carefully at benefits, reviewing that, thinking about implementation - because I agree with Winston that the margins in our supermarket sector are very high."
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
Keeping track of where the money is flowing. The business
hour with the head of Duple Clan and MAS Insurance
and Investments. Your future is in good hands, u storg Zvy.
Speaker 2 (00:13):
Even in coming up in the next hour, Shane solely
with the market reaction to the latest Iran drama. Over
the weekend, Consumer New Zealand will give us their take
on Winston Peter's plan to break up foodstuffs and then
Gavin Gray is with us out of the UK at
seven past six and with us now as Nikola willis
the Finance Minister. Hi, Nikola, Hi, what do you make
of Winston's idea?
Speaker 3 (00:34):
Well, look, I think looking at structural solutions for the
supermarket sector is a good idea, but you've got to
be really careful about how you do it because obviously,
unless it delivers neat benefits to consumers, you know further ahead.
And so that's why I've been taking my time working
through proposals, looking very keerfully at costs very carefully. It
(00:54):
benefits reviewing that thinking about implementation because I agree with
Winston that the margins in our supermarket sector are very high.
It's not competitive enough and we need to work on that.
In the first instance. That's why we've introduced the fast
track legislation to make it easier to build competitive supermarkets.
So we're continuing on that work program.
Speaker 2 (01:15):
Okay, so did you look at breaking up one of
the supermarkets like he's considering.
Speaker 3 (01:20):
I've openly said that I have been given consideration to
structural solutions that reason that you did it in us
of the supermarket sector. Well, I haven't brought proposals to
cabinet yet hither because, as I just said to you,
I am working through potential proposals and looking at what
the benefits would be, what the costs would be, whether
they're implementable, whether they would actually deliver a better deal
(01:43):
for the consumer. And that work takes time. I'm obviously
not going to go out half cocked.
Speaker 2 (01:49):
When do you plan to take it to cabinet before
the election? Okay? Is this? Would you seriously consider this?
Because it's mental, Like it is completely an mental to
to have a fuced divestment and it's just not something
I can see a national party doing.
Speaker 3 (02:05):
Well. No, I don't think a forced investment is a
good idea.
Speaker 2 (02:08):
Absolutely, you won't be doing that.
Speaker 3 (02:11):
I won't be doing a forced investment But what I
do think is the case is that the current structure
in which we have essentially a duopoly operating in our
supermarket sector is not competitive enough, and structurally we do
need to look at are there things that could be
done to make it more competitive, while of course respecting
the property rights of those mums and dads and hard
(02:33):
working business people around the country who own their supermarkets,
operate them well, try and deliver a good deal for
their communities. But at the end of the day, it
is the case that the margins on groceries in New
Zealand are far higher than they are internationally, and that's
even when you account for our geographic distance and spread.
Speaker 2 (02:51):
Do you reckon that, because it's such a crazy idea.
Do you reckon that him saying that he will do
it before the election, he will actually do it after
the election, what do you actually follow.
Speaker 3 (03:01):
I think what he's doing is he's pointing out that
the problems in the grocery sector are so significant that
they weren't bold thinking now it is actually quite bold
that our government has said we're so worried about it
that we're going to put in a special piece of
legislation that if you want to open new supermarkets that
are competitive. Supermarkets in New Zealand will essentially roll out
(03:23):
the red carpet. That's how desperate we are for more competition.
But I'm continuing my work program because I'm not satisfied
that we have a properly competitive grocery sector in New Zealand.
And there are a number of ideas that are worthy
of further consideration, but you've got to get it right.
Detail really really matters. No point making a big color
balloo and a huge structural change and then you, the consumer,
don't end up na.
Speaker 2 (03:44):
I mean, if you're going to take something to the
election that will then be enacted after the election, you're
going to have to have something pretty awesome to beat
this idea because the punters are going to love it
day well.
Speaker 3 (03:53):
I think what New Zealand does want is more affordable
groceries and a sense that they're paying fair prices. And
so that's not just about what you say you're going
to do, it's about having evidence that it will deliver.
And that's why I've been taking my time to carefully
work through a range of proposals and to properly understand
the cause of the problem.
Speaker 2 (04:12):
Okay, now is Treasury's worst case scenario for inflation seven
and a half percent likes Vernon Small has said.
Speaker 3 (04:18):
It iss, Well, they have not presented me with their
forecast in that way to quote them. Instead, what they've done,
rather than present me a forecast, is they've given me
a framework for understanding possible outcomes based on a range
of different scenarios. And so what I'm going to do
in the next few days is provide another you can
(04:39):
onomic update because I understand that there's a lot of
people saying, well things have moved since you last gave
some numbers. We don't want to wait till the budget,
so I will give an update. But I want to
be clear that what they have it that when the
numbers that they have given me in their stylized scenarios
haven't actually been forecasts. It's just a way of understanding,
you know, if the conflict goes on for longer, and
(05:00):
if the price goes higher, obviously that means even highering. Okay,
so even.
Speaker 2 (05:05):
Lower grow cast in their worst forecast is they.
Speaker 3 (05:08):
Haven't given me a forecast either. They have not given
me a forecast.
Speaker 2 (05:11):
So in the framework, they've given you a bunch of scenarios.
Speaker 3 (05:14):
Yes, yes, they've given me a bunch of scenarios.
Speaker 2 (05:17):
In the worst scenario, what's the inflation prediction.
Speaker 3 (05:21):
I'm not going to give that to you out of context.
Why because I don't think it's useful and it's not
the normal practice for finance ministers and the lead up
to a budget to say, hey, here's all the scenarios
I'm talking about. I'm going to give you a different number.
I can point you to the IMF who last week
released the globals who took this.
Speaker 2 (05:41):
Is silly because when when, when COVID happened, there was
a range of forecasts, none of which eventuated. But they
were at least for all of their faults at least
completely transparent with people about the worst case scenario. Why
aren't that right?
Speaker 3 (05:53):
So that's what I am going to In a few days,
I'm going to give a fuller the economic scenario.
Speaker 2 (05:58):
So the number you just told me you're not going
to give me, you're going to give me in a
couple of days.
Speaker 3 (06:02):
I will give you some updated economic modeling and a
few days that will take into account more recent events,
noting that events that are moving around literally every day,
the oil price is leaping up and down by double
digit percentage figures. The scenarios for the conflict are changing
in confounding people, and so I'm not going to put
(06:24):
too much weight on one stylized scenario that wasn't even
a forecast. And I think you putting this much weight
on it is silly, particularly when I've said that I
am going to give.
Speaker 2 (06:32):
Can I tell you my defense in my defense Vernon
because you guys, because you in particular, refuse to release
it to press gallery journalists. It has caused Vernon Small
to write an article. I have asked Chris Bishop the number.
He refuses to tell me. So I'm only putting the
weight on it that you are putting. Its a counterweight
to your weight.
Speaker 3 (06:49):
Sure, Look, there are a range of numbers. I've seen
bank economists, No I'm not bank economists have put out
a range of numbers. Treasury have suggested a range of numbers,
and I'm going to provide an update in the coming days.
Speaker 2 (07:01):
Okay, now, I'm sorry to do this, But what is
the punishment that's going to be handed out to the
troublemakers tomorrow at caucus.
Speaker 3 (07:11):
Well, I haven't discussed punishment with anyone Obviously as a
caucus we discuss all sorts of things. That caucus. We
tend to keep that in private and behind closed doors,
and none of it. None of us like it when
people choose to make anonymous comments by way of the
media rather than talking face to face with their colleagues.
Speaker 2 (07:30):
Yeah. So, am I right in thinking though that there
are really for the Prime minister. It's not just tomorrow's
caucus that he has to get through, but it's in
fact this caucus tomorrow and then the caucus and the
Tuesday thereafter. Right, it's a two week sitting lock.
Speaker 3 (07:42):
Well, what do you mean he's got to get through?
He goes to caucus every Tuesday.
Speaker 2 (07:47):
Well, and this is pressure, right, pressures. The whole thing
is supposed to be a fortnight of pressure to try
to force him out of his job. That's what these
troublemakers are doing, isn't it.
Speaker 3 (07:56):
Well I don't think that they have succeeded that in
any way.
Speaker 2 (08:00):
Yes, but he's sleeping another Tuesday and another Tuesday to
get through it.
Speaker 3 (08:03):
Yeah. Yeah, And you know what, He's been coming to
caucus every Tuesday in a house sitting weight since he
became leader. And I can count dozens and dozens of
articles and headlines that have Seti's in trouble again and
again and again, and he soldiered on and so he
will continue to do so.
Speaker 2 (08:19):
So the huddle girls earlier who know their stuff with politics,
I think it might have been trishersonal joke one of
them said, what is the point at which you guys
stop the suffering? Like, at what point do you what
is the polling number at which you say, Chris, this
is not working. Do you have a number?
Speaker 3 (08:35):
Well, I think that presumes heither that you would get
a different number if you had a different leader. And
I don't presume that. Well that's your assumption.
Speaker 2 (08:47):
Well, but you would because surely to god, anyone else
won't be as bad in media interviews.
Speaker 3 (08:53):
Well here that I'm not of the view that he
does do a bad job in all of his media interviews.
Speaker 2 (08:58):
That's your view, Nickolay, thank you very much. I'll let
you get back to your day job, which we actually
need you to do. Nicola Willis, Finance Minister.
Speaker 1 (09:06):
For more from Hither Duplessy Allen Drive, listen live to
news talks it'd be from four pm weekdays, or follow
the podcast on iHeartRadio,
Keeping track of where the money is flowing. The business
hour with the head of Duple Clan and MAS Insurance
and Investments. Your future is in good hands, u storg Zvy.
Speaker 2 (00:13):
Even in coming up in the next hour, Shane solely
with the market reaction to the latest Iran drama. Over
the weekend, Consumer New Zealand will give us their take
on Winston Peter's plan to break up foodstuffs and then
Gavin Gray is with us out of the UK at
seven past six and with us now as Nikola willis
the Finance Minister. Hi, Nikola, Hi, what do you make
of Winston's idea?
Speaker 3 (00:34):
Well, look, I think looking at structural solutions for the
supermarket sector is a good idea, but you've got to
be really careful about how you do it because obviously,
unless it delivers neat benefits to consumers, you know further ahead.
And so that's why I've been taking my time working
through proposals, looking very keerfully at costs very carefully. It
(00:54):
benefits reviewing that thinking about implementation because I agree with
Winston that the margins in our supermarket sector are very high.
It's not competitive enough and we need to work on that.
In the first instance. That's why we've introduced the fast
track legislation to make it easier to build competitive supermarkets.
So we're continuing on that work program.
Speaker 2 (01:15):
Okay, so did you look at breaking up one of
the supermarkets like he's considering.
Speaker 3 (01:20):
I've openly said that I have been given consideration to
structural solutions that reason that you did it in us
of the supermarket sector. Well, I haven't brought proposals to
cabinet yet hither because, as I just said to you,
I am working through potential proposals and looking at what
the benefits would be, what the costs would be, whether
they're implementable, whether they would actually deliver a better deal
(01:43):
for the consumer. And that work takes time. I'm obviously
not going to go out half cocked.
Speaker 2 (01:49):
When do you plan to take it to cabinet before
the election? Okay? Is this? Would you seriously consider this?
Because it's mental, Like it is completely an mental to
to have a fuced divestment and it's just not something
I can see a national party doing.
Speaker 3 (02:05):
Well. No, I don't think a forced investment is a
good idea.
Speaker 2 (02:08):
Absolutely, you won't be doing that.
Speaker 3 (02:11):
I won't be doing a forced investment But what I
do think is the case is that the current structure
in which we have essentially a duopoly operating in our
supermarket sector is not competitive enough, and structurally we do
need to look at are there things that could be
done to make it more competitive, while of course respecting
the property rights of those mums and dads and hard
(02:33):
working business people around the country who own their supermarkets,
operate them well, try and deliver a good deal for
their communities. But at the end of the day, it
is the case that the margins on groceries in New
Zealand are far higher than they are internationally, and that's
even when you account for our geographic distance and spread.
Speaker 2 (02:51):
Do you reckon that, because it's such a crazy idea.
Do you reckon that him saying that he will do
it before the election, he will actually do it after
the election, what do you actually follow.
Speaker 3 (03:01):
I think what he's doing is he's pointing out that
the problems in the grocery sector are so significant that
they weren't bold thinking now it is actually quite bold
that our government has said we're so worried about it
that we're going to put in a special piece of
legislation that if you want to open new supermarkets that
are competitive. Supermarkets in New Zealand will essentially roll out
(03:23):
the red carpet. That's how desperate we are for more competition.
But I'm continuing my work program because I'm not satisfied
that we have a properly competitive grocery sector in New Zealand.
And there are a number of ideas that are worthy
of further consideration, but you've got to get it right.
Detail really really matters. No point making a big color
balloo and a huge structural change and then you, the consumer,
don't end up na.
Speaker 2 (03:44):
I mean, if you're going to take something to the
election that will then be enacted after the election, you're
going to have to have something pretty awesome to beat
this idea because the punters are going to love it
day well.
Speaker 3 (03:53):
I think what New Zealand does want is more affordable
groceries and a sense that they're paying fair prices. And
so that's not just about what you say you're going
to do, it's about having evidence that it will deliver.
And that's why I've been taking my time to carefully
work through a range of proposals and to properly understand
the cause of the problem.
Speaker 2 (04:12):
Okay, now is Treasury's worst case scenario for inflation seven
and a half percent likes Vernon Small has said.
Speaker 3 (04:18):
It iss, Well, they have not presented me with their
forecast in that way to quote them. Instead, what they've done,
rather than present me a forecast, is they've given me
a framework for understanding possible outcomes based on a range
of different scenarios. And so what I'm going to do
in the next few days is provide another you can
(04:39):
onomic update because I understand that there's a lot of
people saying, well things have moved since you last gave
some numbers. We don't want to wait till the budget,
so I will give an update. But I want to
be clear that what they have it that when the
numbers that they have given me in their stylized scenarios
haven't actually been forecasts. It's just a way of understanding,
you know, if the conflict goes on for longer, and
(05:00):
if the price goes higher, obviously that means even highering. Okay,
so even.
Speaker 2 (05:05):
Lower grow cast in their worst forecast is they.
Speaker 3 (05:08):
Haven't given me a forecast either. They have not given
me a forecast.
Speaker 2 (05:11):
So in the framework, they've given you a bunch of scenarios.
Speaker 3 (05:14):
Yes, yes, they've given me a bunch of scenarios.
Speaker 2 (05:17):
In the worst scenario, what's the inflation prediction.
Speaker 3 (05:21):
I'm not going to give that to you out of context.
Why because I don't think it's useful and it's not
the normal practice for finance ministers and the lead up
to a budget to say, hey, here's all the scenarios
I'm talking about. I'm going to give you a different number.
I can point you to the IMF who last week
released the globals who took this.
Speaker 2 (05:41):
Is silly because when when, when COVID happened, there was
a range of forecasts, none of which eventuated. But they
were at least for all of their faults at least
completely transparent with people about the worst case scenario. Why
aren't that right?
Speaker 3 (05:53):
So that's what I am going to In a few days,
I'm going to give a fuller the economic scenario.
Speaker 2 (05:58):
So the number you just told me you're not going
to give me, you're going to give me in a
couple of days.
Speaker 3 (06:02):
I will give you some updated economic modeling and a
few days that will take into account more recent events,
noting that events that are moving around literally every day,
the oil price is leaping up and down by double
digit percentage figures. The scenarios for the conflict are changing
in confounding people, and so I'm not going to put
(06:24):
too much weight on one stylized scenario that wasn't even
a forecast. And I think you putting this much weight
on it is silly, particularly when I've said that I
am going to give.
Speaker 2 (06:32):
Can I tell you my defense in my defense Vernon
because you guys, because you in particular, refuse to release
it to press gallery journalists. It has caused Vernon Small
to write an article. I have asked Chris Bishop the number.
He refuses to tell me. So I'm only putting the
weight on it that you are putting. Its a counterweight
to your weight.
Speaker 3 (06:49):
Sure, Look, there are a range of numbers. I've seen
bank economists, No I'm not bank economists have put out
a range of numbers. Treasury have suggested a range of numbers,
and I'm going to provide an update in the coming days.
Speaker 2 (07:01):
Okay, now, I'm sorry to do this, But what is
the punishment that's going to be handed out to the
troublemakers tomorrow at caucus.
Speaker 3 (07:11):
Well, I haven't discussed punishment with anyone Obviously as a
caucus we discuss all sorts of things. That caucus. We
tend to keep that in private and behind closed doors,
and none of it. None of us like it when
people choose to make anonymous comments by way of the
media rather than talking face to face with their colleagues.
Speaker 2 (07:30):
Yeah. So, am I right in thinking though that there
are really for the Prime minister. It's not just tomorrow's
caucus that he has to get through, but it's in
fact this caucus tomorrow and then the caucus and the
Tuesday thereafter. Right, it's a two week sitting lock.
Speaker 3 (07:42):
Well, what do you mean he's got to get through?
He goes to caucus every Tuesday.
Speaker 2 (07:47):
Well, and this is pressure, right, pressures. The whole thing
is supposed to be a fortnight of pressure to try
to force him out of his job. That's what these
troublemakers are doing, isn't it.
Speaker 3 (07:56):
Well I don't think that they have succeeded that in
any way.
Speaker 2 (08:00):
Yes, but he's sleeping another Tuesday and another Tuesday to
get through it.
Speaker 3 (08:03):
Yeah. Yeah, And you know what, He's been coming to
caucus every Tuesday in a house sitting weight since he
became leader. And I can count dozens and dozens of
articles and headlines that have Seti's in trouble again and
again and again, and he soldiered on and so he
will continue to do so.
Speaker 2 (08:19):
So the huddle girls earlier who know their stuff with politics,
I think it might have been trishersonal joke one of
them said, what is the point at which you guys
stop the suffering? Like, at what point do you what
is the polling number at which you say, Chris, this
is not working. Do you have a number?
Speaker 3 (08:35):
Well, I think that presumes heither that you would get
a different number if you had a different leader. And
I don't presume that. Well that's your assumption.
Speaker 2 (08:47):
Well, but you would because surely to god, anyone else
won't be as bad in media interviews.
Speaker 3 (08:53):
Well here that I'm not of the view that he
does do a bad job in all of his media interviews.
Speaker 2 (08:58):
That's your view, Nickolay, thank you very much. I'll let
you get back to your day job, which we actually
need you to do. Nicola Willis, Finance Minister.
Speaker 1 (09:06):
For more from Hither Duplessy Allen Drive, listen live to
news talks it'd be from four pm weekdays, or follow
the podcast on iHeartRadio,
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