Perspective with Heather du Plessis-Allan: Anna Breman delivered a refreshingly boring OCR update

The Official Cash Rate has gone up by 25 basis points. This is the first rise we've seen in three years.

It was unanimous around the committee table that it needed to happen because of inflation. Even though petrol and diesel prices have fallen sharply since the Iran war ceasefire deal was struck, they're not back to pre-war levels yet and they won't be for some time. That, of course, is inflationary.

You know what struck me, though? Even though this is the first hike in the Official Cash Rate in three years and even though there wasn't consensus among high-profile economists that this should happen - I mean, plenty of them were calling very strongly for it to be held for the sake of the economy - there isn't nearly as much angst around this as there was around any of the decisions Adrian Orr made.

Even when they were decisions we wanted, we still got angsty because they were either too late, too early or whatever.

Instead, the news conference was boring. So boring, in fact, that it was refreshing.

Anna Breman slowly talked us through the decision with a slideshow. She let Paul, on one side of her, pipe up occasionally. Karen, on the other side, was also allowed to chip in. She took questions from journalists on video link. She explained really basic economic concepts to them.

The impression you got the whole way through was that Anna Breman is in control.

Because we knew this. This was not a surprise. We knew it was coming. It was very well signalled. Seventy percent of economists were expecting it. The market had priced it in. The NZIER Shadow Board was picking it. There was, as I say, consensus around the committee table.

It gives the impression that she's not the victim of a knee-jerk reaction but is instead being quite deliberate in the path she's taken.

You could argue that her job right now is every bit as hard as Adrian Orr's was, at least towards the end of his tenure. Because this Iran stuff is really mucking around with forecasts, isn't it?

That news conference was so boring - and so angst-free - that it gives me some hope.

The further we get away from COVID, and from the characters who were around during COVID, the more things might return to their boring averages. Maybe we'll get on with each other and get on with the jobs we're supposed to do a lot better.

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
So as I say, yep, the official cash rate has
gone up today by twenty five basis points. This is
the first rise that we've seen in three years. It
was unanimous around the committee table that this needed to
happen for the reason of inflation, because even though petrol
and diesel prices have fallen sharply since the Iran War
cease fire deal was struck, they are not back to
pre war levels yet and they will not be for

(00:20):
some time, and that, of course is inflationary. You know
what struck me today though, was that even though this
is the first hike in the official cash rate in
three years, and even though there is not at all
consensus among high profile economics economists that this should happen,
and plenty of them are calling very strongly for this
to be held for the sake of the economy, there
isn't nearly as much angst around this as there was

(00:42):
around any of the decisions that Adrian or made, even
when they were decisions that we wanted, because we got
angsty because they were either too late or too early
or too whatever. Instead, the press conference today was boring,
like so boring, it was refreshing and a Bremen slowly
talked us through her decision with a slide show. She
let Paul on one side of her pipe up. Occasionally

(01:04):
Karen on the other side was allowed to pipe up.
She took questions from journalists on video link. She explained
really basic economic concepts to them all. The impression that
you got the whole way through was that Anna Bremen
is in control because we knew this was This was
not a surprise. We knew this was coming. It was
really well signaled. Seventy percent of the economists were expecting this,

(01:26):
The market had priced it in the ends ends at
Ier shadow board was picking it. There was, as I say,
consensus around the committee table. Gives the impression that she's
not the victim of a knee jerk reaction, but it
is quite deliberate in the path that she's taking, when
you could argue that her job right now is every
bit as hard as Adrian ours was. Adrian Ows was
at least towards the end of his tenure. Because this

(01:47):
Iran stuff is really mucking around with predictions, Isn't it
That press conference was so boring and so angst free
again that it gives me some hope that the further
that we get away from COVID and the characters who
were in COD, the more things will return to their
boring averages, and we will get on with each other
and get on with the jobs that we're supposed to
do a lot better. For more from Heather Duplessy Allen Drive,

(02:10):
listen live to News Talks at B from four pm weekdays,
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