Perspective with Heather du Plessis-Allan: Has Luxon entered 'dead man walking' territory?

Look, I know we’re all going to have different points at which we think the media reaction to a news story gets silly but for me, that point was this morning. 

Members of the media chasing the Prime Minister through Wellington Airport, asking whether he was considering resigning and whether he had the full support of his caucus seemed a little bit silly to me. Silly because it’s not as if he’s gone to ground for the past four days, is it?

He was on morning media today - two radio interviews and at least one TV appearance - and he’s also fronted a post-Cabinet news conference. So it’s not as though the media are starved of opportunities to talk to the Prime Minister without chasing him through a crowded terminal.

All it does is create the impression of drama where no real drama exists.

There is no coup. All of his ministers are backing him publicly. Privately, sure, maybe a little less so - but publicly, they are. Luxon remains the leader until he is talked out of being the leader and there’s no sign that’s happening. In short, nothing is happening in the short term.

Now, if I try to understand why the media wanted to chase him through the airport, perhaps it’s because they sense things have shifted - and that part is true. Since the poll on Friday morning that put National at 28 percent, two things have changed.

First, ministers who previously gave complete backing to Luxon are now doing so privately with a caveat: “Yeah, I support him… but.”

But he’s bad at taking advice, but he made a bad call with XYZ. Whatever the specifics, the point is the same: they’ve dropped their full confidence. That tells me something is going on in their heads.

Second, he has now entered what I’d describe as publicly “dead man walking” territory. Every bad poll from here, every major mistake - and there will be some - will reignite talk about his leadership. That is a slow bleed for any leader. It ends one of two ways - a spanking on election day, or the leader eventually calling it quits.

I think he’s now in that zone. I don’t think the coalition loses the election at this rate, but I do think National comes back as a mini version of itself - and that’s not great for them.

Maybe that electoral prognosis is what has the media so excited that they’re chasing him through the airport. But that’s a medium-term issue. Today? I think the brief excitement of the weekend is over and nothing is going to happen.

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Look, I know that we're all going to have different
points at which we think media reaction to a news
story gets silly. But for me, it was this morning
members of the media chasing the Prime Minister through Wellington
Airport asking him whether he was considering resigning and if
he has the full support of his caucus. To me,
seems a little bit silly. Silly because it's not as
if he's gone to ground for the last four days,
is it. I mean, he was on morning media this morning,

(00:21):
he did two radio interviews and at least one TV
appearance appearance, and is also going to front for a
post cabinet press conference which should be kicking off now,
so they're not starved of opportunities to talk to the
Prime Minister without chasing him through a crowded hall. It
also creates the impression of drama where really no drama exists.
There is no coupe. All of his ministers are backing

(00:41):
him publicly. Privately, yeah, maybe a little less so, but
publicly they are luxon is the leader until he has
talked out of being the leader, and there's no indication
that that's happening either. In short, nothing is happening in
the short term. Now, if I have to try to
understand why the media wanted to chase him through the airport,
maybe it's because they sense that things have sh and
that is true. Since the poll on Friday morning that

(01:03):
put the National Party at twenty eight percent, two things
have changed. The first is that ministers who previously gave
complete backing too Luxen are now privately doing it with
a caveat. Yeah, I support him, there's a butt, but
he is quite bad at taking advice. But he made
a bad call with XYZ whatever. They've dropped their full
confidence in him. That tells me something is going on

(01:24):
in their heads. The second thing is that he has
now entered I think publicly dead man walking territory. Every
bad poll from here on in, every big mistake that
he makes from here on in, and he will will
revive talk about his leadership. And that is a slow
bleed out for a leader. It ends in one of
two ways, a spanking on election day or the leader
finally calling it quits and going now. I think he's

(01:44):
in that space. I don't think the coalition government loses
the election at this rate, but I think the National
Party comes back as a mini version of itself, and
that's not a good thing for them now. Maybe that
electoral prognosis is what's got the media so excited that
the chasing him through the airport that, though, I think
is a medium term thing today, I think the brief
excitement of the weekend and just before the weekend is

(02:05):
over and nothing is going to happen. For more from
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