Perspective with Heather du Plessis-Allan: National's in a worst of all worlds situation now

Chris Luxon stared them down and survived again.

Now, it sounds like both contenders, or at least both people who thought they were contenders, Erica Stanford and Chris Bishop, were reasonably confident they had the numbers to roll Luxon yesterday afternoon.

But then things swung Luxon's way early in the evening. About 8pm, I got a text suggesting the coup was falling apart and Luxon was shoring up his numbers. The people who had defected from him were defecting back to him.

By this morning, the confidence had shifted back to Luxon's camp. It looks like, if I can put this really simply, the coup fell apart because of egos.

Neither Chris Bishop nor Erica Stanford was prepared to go second on the ticket. They needed to work together if they wanted the numbers. They needed to coalesce around one candidate but they couldn't because both wanted to be leader.

So, in the end, neither of them became leader.

Now, I can't say the caucus has made the wrong call by backing Chris Luxon because, as I said, either choice was risky and difficult.

But the situation the National Party finds itself in is the worst of all worlds. For a second time, the party has signalled to the country that it does not fully back its leader, and then left him there to do the job anyway.

No one is going to believe the false show of unity that saw them standing behind Chris Luxon for 75 seconds while he told us his caucus was unified. It doesn't take three hours in a caucus room to establish unity. It takes five minutes.

Three hours is what it looks like when there isn't enough unity.

The people behind this coup, and this time it appears to be Erica Stanford rather than Chris Bishop, should reflect on what they've done. They have effectively blown the arms and legs off their Prime Minister, then pushed him out there to try to win the election for them again because they couldn't get past their own egos long enough to execute a coup properly.

There's only one thing worse than a coup against a Prime Minister, and that's a failed coup. You do all the damage and end up with nothing shiny and new to show for it.

This is going to hurt National. Mark my words, this is going to hurt National.

The party will probably bleed votes to its coalition partners in the next three months. I'm still not convinced it will cost National the election but it certainly makes that outcome more likely.

They only have themselves to blame for what comes next.

LISTEN ABOVE

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
So Chris Luxon stared them down and survived again. Now
it sounds like what happened is that both contenders, both
of them who thought they were contenders, Erica Stanford and
Chris Bishop, were reasonably confident they had the numbers to
roll Luxeon yesterday afternoon. But then things swung Luxon's way.
Early evening, about eight o'clock, I got a text that
suggested the coup was falling apart and Luxon was shoring

(00:22):
up his numbers. The people who were defecting from him
defected back to him, and by this morning, the confidence
the camp that had the confidence was his. The confidence
had shifted back to him. It looks like, if I
could put this really simply, it looks like that coup
fell apart because of egos. Because neither Chris Bishop nor
Erica Stanford was prepared to go second on the ticket.
They actually needed to work together if they wanted to

(00:43):
have the numbers, they needed to coalesce around one of them.
But they couldn't because both of them wanted to be
the leader. And so what happened in the end is
neither of them got to be the leader. Now I
cannot say to you today the Calcus has made the
wrong call to back Chris Luxon because, like I said yesterday,
was a really risky choice and a very difficult choice

(01:03):
to make. But the situation the National Party is in
today is the worst situation of all, which is that
the National Party has again for the second time, told
the country that they do not fully back their man,
and then they've left them there to do the job again.
No one is going to believe the false show of
unity of them all standing behind Chris Luxan for seventy
five seconds while he told us his caucus was unified.

(01:26):
It doesn't take three hours in a caucus room to
establish that you unified. It takes five minutes, three hours.
It is what it looks like when there is not
enough unity. The people behind this coup, and this time
it is actually Erica Stanford not Chris Bishop. The people
behind this coup should reflect on what they've done here.
They have just blown the arms and legs off their
prime minister and then they have pushed them out him

(01:47):
out there to try and win the election for them
again because they couldn't get past their own egos to
do a coup properly. You know, there's only one thing
worse than a coup on a prime minister, and that
is a failed coup on a prime minister because you
do all the damage and you've got nothing shiny and
bright to show for it. This is gonna hurt National,
Mark my Woods, this is gonna hurt National. National will
probably be bleed votes to their coalition partners over the

(02:09):
next three months. I'm still not convinced it loses National
the election, but it makes that more likely, doesn't it.
They only have themselves to blame for what comes next.
For more from Heather Duplessy Allen Drive, listen live to
news Talks. It'd be from four pm weekdays, or follow
the podcast on iHeartRadio.