Perspective with Heather du Plessis-Allan: You've got to respect Chris Luxon's courage

Well, blow me down - they had a leadership vote in caucus, called by Chris Luxon himself, and he survived.

Good on him for doing that. That is exactly what I said  he had to do if he wanted to shut this stuff down for the next week and a bit that Parliament has left to sit.

And even if you think sticking with Chris Luxon was the wrong call by the National Party - which, by the way, I do; I still think he needs to go before the election - you’ve got to respect the fact he had the courage to do this.

Leadership votes are always a big risk. They’re always a guess. It doesn’t matter what the MPs say to you. It doesn’t matter if they tell you they’re going to support you. When it comes down to it, and it’s a secret ballot, it’s always a roll of the dice. It takes real steel to do that and he had it.

Now the question, of course, is: is that it? Right - is it going to be quiet all the way through to November’s election?He’s going to be the leader, nothing more to say? Not necessarily.

I think this increases his chances of staying on because it has to have killed off any spill momentum his detractors might have had - at least for now. And it has to have lifted his confidence, which in turn has to lift his media performance, surely to God.

But ultimately, none of that really matters. It’s the polls that determine his future. If National keeps on this downward trend they’ve been on for two years, and if it drops another 2 percent and is sitting on 27-point-something in the next few weeks, all of this is just going to start up again. MPs will see themselves at risk of losing their jobs, they’ll freak out and the chatter will resume.

What this does do is, first, buy him a significant amount of time to lift those polls. And second, it has to earn him a grudging respect from his MPs, who now have to look at this and say he’s more of a formidable opponent than they might have thought.

Even if it’s just grudging respect for calling the bluff of the leakers, that’s what he’s done. It turns out they never had the numbers they pretended they had.

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Will blow me down. But they had a leadership vote
in caucus which was called by Chris Luxen's himself and
he survived. Good on him for doing that. That is
exactly what I said yesterday he had to do if
he wanted to shut the stuff down for the next
week in a bit that Parliament has left us sit.
And even if you think that sticking with Chris Luxen
was the wrong call by the National Party, which by

(00:21):
the way, I do, I still think he needs to
go before the election, you have got to respect the
fact that he had the courage to do this. Leadership
votes are always a big risk. They are always a guess.
It doesn't matter what the MPs say to you, doesn't
matter if they say they're going to support you when
it comes down to it, and it's a secret ballot,
it's always a roll of the dice and it takes
real steel to do that, and he had it. Now,

(00:43):
question of courses is that it right? Is it going
to be quiet all the way through to November's election?
He's going to be the leader, nothing more to say.
Not necessarily. I think this increases his chances of staying
the leader, because it has to have killed off any
of the spill momentum that his detractors might have had,
at least for now, and it has to have lifted
his confidence, and that in turn has to lift his

(01:04):
media performance, surely to God, but ultimately none of that
actually really matters, because it's the poles that determine his future.
And if National keeps on this downward trend that they've
been on for two years, and if it goes down
another two percent, let's say, and is sitting on twenty
seven point something in the next few weeks, all this
is just going to start up again because more MPs
will stand to lose their jobs and they will get

(01:26):
freaked out and they'll start the chatter again. But what
this does is number one, it buys them a significant
amount of time to lift those poles. And two, it
has to earn him a grudging respect from his MPs,
who now have to look at this and say that
he is more of a formidable opponent than they may

(01:47):
have thought he was. And even if it's just a
grudging respect for calling the bluff of the leakers, that
is what he has done. It turns out they never
had the numbers that they pretended they had. For more
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