Perspective with Ryan Bridge: Is this National's election to lose?

So we've got an election date, and it's the date pundits have been picking since late last year - November 7th.

This election is National's to lose. The only question really is how much influence ACT and or New Zealand First will have in any future Government.

Don't get me wrong - it'll be a close race.

Here's some easy picks - National will get more votes than Labour, New Zealand First will outperform ACT, New Zealand First will steal from Labour and nip at their heels, Te Pati Māori's reputation is already in the bin so the Māori seats are anyone's guess at this point.

And Winston Peters, as always, will decide who actually wins the election. He's ruled out working with Chippy but not Labour.

Here's the crucial point. Winston Peters cannot, politically, enter a deal propped up by or supported by the Greens or Te Pati Māori. In pretty much every poll this term, Labour has needed both of them to get close to the magic 61 seats.

Now, you could argue that National might stumble and Labour could surge. But the chances of this happening - I would put at around 20-30 percent. So very unlikely.

The economic recovery's underway. Summer will be round the corner come November. But most importantly, people won't switch horses mid-stream when that recovery has been so hard fought.

The memory, particularly in Auckland, is too short for voters to forget about Labour's Covid mess and unbridled spending on outrageous and expensive things.

Chris Hipkins today also announced a date - his wedding. He says it'll be held in 2027. That means Toni is likely going to marry an unemployed bloke from the Hutt.

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
So we've got a date. It's the date the pundits
have been picking since late last year, November seventh, for
the election. This election, in my view, is Nationals to lose.
The only question really is how much influence ACT and
or New Zealand First will have on any future government.
Don't get me wrong, It's going to be a close race.
Here's some easy picks for you. National will get more

(00:21):
votes than Labour. New Zealand First will outperform ACT. New
Zealand First will steal from Labor and nip it their
heels to Party. Marty's reputation, as you know, is already
pretty much in the bin, so the Maori seats are
anyone's guests at this point. Winston Peters, as always, will
decide who actually wins the election. He's ruled out working

(00:43):
with Chippy, but not Labour. Here's the crucial point, though
Winston Peters cannot politically enter a deal propped up by
or supported by the Greens or to Party Mardy. It
would be political suicide. In pretty much every poll this
term has needed both of them to get close to
the magic sixty one seats. Now you could argue that

(01:05):
National might stumble and labor could surge. The chances of
this happening, I would say are probably around twenty percent
at this point, very unlikely. The economic recovery is underway,
summer will be around the corner come November. But most importantly,
people won't switch horses mid stream when that recovery has
been so hard fought. The memory, particularly in Auckland, is

(01:29):
too short for voters to forget Labour's COVID mess and
unbridled spending on outrageous and expensive things. Remember the seven
hundred and fifty million dollar bridge going across the White
Matar Harbor that wouldn't carry a single car, the bike bridge.
Come on, our memories aren't that short. Chris Hopkins today

(01:51):
has also announced a date his wedding. He says it'll
be held in twenty twenty seven, and I fear Tony
that means you are likely to ry an unemployed bloke
from the Hut. For more from Hither Duplessy Allen Drive,
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