January 22, 2026 • 7 mins
The new year is getting under way, but concerns have been raised over what investors should focus on for 2026.
There's risks impacting the tech sector and experts are hoping things will improve going forward.
Sam Dickie from Fisher Funds explained further.
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Bryan Branch.
Speaker 2 (00:01):
Can we go to Sam Dickey for a market update.
Equity markets a whisker off their all time highs, this
despite a few wobbles recently. So what about the risks?
Sam is with us now? Good evening, Good evening, Ryan.
We've talked a lot about the exciting sort of positive
catalyst for markets over the last few months. But what
are the key risks investors should be focused on this year. Yes,
(00:24):
there's been so many perceived risky headlines so far. So
far this year is kind of like drinking from a
fire hose. So we find it helpful to remember what
really drive stock markets, and that's three things. So the
direction of economic and corporating is growth, the level of
interest rates, and the valuational price of stocks. So if
we look at one key risk in each of those
buckets and ignore the rest of the noise, A key
(00:47):
driver of growth in the US has been the massive
build out of AI infrastructure. So the rubber meets the
road this year on where the big tech companies can
make a return on the hundreds of billions of dollars
they spend on AI and as is in the side, Ryan,
Remember we were speaking back in October November about how
bubbly things that God in Ailand. The good news there
(01:07):
is there's been a healthy correction in the riskier names
so Orackland call Weave, which were using tons of debt
to fund that a built out there, down forty to
fifty percent.
Speaker 1 (01:16):
Point there is. That's good news that investors are becoming
more discerning. The second one is on the level of
interest rates. Keep an eye on debt levels of particularly
OECD countries like Japan and the US. So take Japan,
for example, on the thirty year debt that the government borrows.
Only five to six years ago, the government used to
(01:37):
pay zero percent on that thirty year bonds. Government bonds
were at zero percent. Today it pays almost four percent,
and the interest rate has been going up rapidly. So
the point there is keep an eye on those longer
dated interest rates for the US and Japan for signs
of stress. And the final thing is markets have had
a very strong run since April last year. Equity markets
are up forty four percent eight months, which is astonishing,
(02:00):
and the headline valuation is elevated at twenty two times
simplistic price to earnings ratio. The good news there though,
is that's reflective of just some of those really big
top ten kick companies being fully valued, like Tesla trades
on two hundred times p which is pretty ritzy. The
good news is blue chip companies or quality companies that
(02:22):
sit outside of that top ten were left behind, and
twenty twenty five, in fact, some of those companies of
the most out of favor in thirty years, So that
bodes really well for focused, selective stop picking investors.
Speaker 2 (02:35):
What about picking particular markets like you know, Japan and Germany.
There's a lot of talk about their stimulus that you know,
pumping the cash and which often leads to the lift
in markets. Is that something that we should pay close
attention to or have we maybe missed the boat on
that already? That's what's the story there.
Speaker 1 (02:55):
I think that's important. That's one of the key lessons.
You and I spoke late late last year about what
were the key lessons of twenty twenty five. Well, the
key lesson is it's possible to make money outside of
the US, and for the third time in fifteen years,
non US markets outperformed the US, Japan, as you mentioned, China, Brazil,
emerging markets. There's some good places to make money. Japan
(03:20):
has had a specific stock market sort of stimulus package
going on. Apart from the fact they're trying to reflate
their economy, they've also told all of the companies that
are listed on their stock market that they must do
shareholder fenny things. They must use some of the lazy
cash on their balance sheet, they must pay higher dividends,
they must drive up return. So that's been really, really positive,
(03:41):
and I think there's still more to run there, notwithstanding
by the way that overriding risk of the price of
money there. I mean, just keep an eye on those
thirty year bonds. They moved very aggressively two days ago,
So we just want to make sure that the Bank
of Japan doesn't lose control of its bond market.
Speaker 2 (03:58):
Sam, if we were to have a Trump Liberation Day
outburst again tomorrow, this is just a hypothetical, but throw
it at you. Do you think the markets would react,
wouldn't react as dramatically as they did last year. Like
we kind of learned the lesson with him a little
bit that that he you know, he goes crazy, he
does the art of the deal thing, and then he
pulls back and does a deal.
Speaker 1 (04:18):
Yeah, I think it's it's a spot like one of
those diminishing marginal utility of the shock factor, right or
the out of the deal it is. I mean when
I talk about drinking from a fire hose to start
the year, that was most of those headlines were related
to Trump policies or tweets, should I say? And whether
it be captain credit card rates in the US. You know,
(04:43):
the Iran headlines have beenersuaded headlines, the Greenland headlines, and
I think he piled on so much, and those policies
came so thick and fast, and eventually the market did
link a couple of days ago. But then of course
he's already subsequently walked away from the Greenland threats to
an extent. The market had a big bounce overnight. So
I think you did right, Ryan. Is a diminishing marginal
(05:06):
utility of the shop factor.
Speaker 2 (05:08):
What about the Iran That's the next one on the
cab off the rank if we're to believe what's coming
out of the White House. We spoke to Marco Rubio's
former pres Sect today and he was saying, look, this
is the one you want to watch. This is coming next.
There's a troop build up or military build up in
the Middle East from the United States. Is that as
(05:28):
big a deal? Would it be as big a deal
to markets as say, the Greenland threats have been.
Speaker 1 (05:35):
I think these geopolitical you know, flare ups are always
concerning most not least, because there's a real human element.
Then we shouldn't forget about that. But what history does
tell us. You know, you can go back super long
term over one hundred and five years. You know, we've
had a couple of world wars, you know, a depression,
numerous recessions, and still markets are up, you know, hundreds
(05:59):
of fold you know. But then it even shorter term.
You go back to Ukraine and even if you'd had
tomorrow's newspaper yesterday wouldn't have made any money. People were
convinced that, you know, gas prices would saw, energy prices
would saw, grain prices would saw because you know, Ukraine's
a weak bowl of Europe. The factors the day before
(06:22):
Putin invaded was the highest price we saw for some
of those gas prices, the oil price, and some of
those food prices. So it's really hard to trade. The
point is it's really hard to trade around these geopolitical
events and politics as well the US midterm elections coming up.
That's the first point and the second point is, generally speaking,
and I don't say this lightly, the market fades these things.
(06:44):
They move on from these things fairly quickly. So I
would put that in the camp of not ultra important
for those three things the price of money or interest rates,
the price of stocks, and the direction of you know,
economic growth.
Speaker 2 (07:02):
Interesting. Thanks for letting me throw anything I can and
I want to hit you. Sam always appreciated the problem
you're inside. Sam Dicky Pusher funds with us Tonight.
Speaker 1 (07:11):
For more from Hither Duplessy Allen Drive, listen live to
news talks. It'd be from four pm weekdays, or follow
the podcast on iHeartRadio
Bryan Branch.
Speaker 2 (00:01):
Can we go to Sam Dickey for a market update.
Equity markets a whisker off their all time highs, this
despite a few wobbles recently. So what about the risks?
Sam is with us now? Good evening, Good evening, Ryan.
We've talked a lot about the exciting sort of positive
catalyst for markets over the last few months. But what
are the key risks investors should be focused on this year. Yes,
(00:24):
there's been so many perceived risky headlines so far. So
far this year is kind of like drinking from a
fire hose. So we find it helpful to remember what
really drive stock markets, and that's three things. So the
direction of economic and corporating is growth, the level of
interest rates, and the valuational price of stocks. So if
we look at one key risk in each of those
buckets and ignore the rest of the noise, A key
(00:47):
driver of growth in the US has been the massive
build out of AI infrastructure. So the rubber meets the
road this year on where the big tech companies can
make a return on the hundreds of billions of dollars
they spend on AI and as is in the side, Ryan,
Remember we were speaking back in October November about how
bubbly things that God in Ailand. The good news there
(01:07):
is there's been a healthy correction in the riskier names
so Orackland call Weave, which were using tons of debt
to fund that a built out there, down forty to
fifty percent.
Speaker 1 (01:16):
Point there is. That's good news that investors are becoming
more discerning. The second one is on the level of
interest rates. Keep an eye on debt levels of particularly
OECD countries like Japan and the US. So take Japan,
for example, on the thirty year debt that the government borrows.
Only five to six years ago, the government used to
(01:37):
pay zero percent on that thirty year bonds. Government bonds
were at zero percent. Today it pays almost four percent,
and the interest rate has been going up rapidly. So
the point there is keep an eye on those longer
dated interest rates for the US and Japan for signs
of stress. And the final thing is markets have had
a very strong run since April last year. Equity markets
are up forty four percent eight months, which is astonishing,
(02:00):
and the headline valuation is elevated at twenty two times
simplistic price to earnings ratio. The good news there though,
is that's reflective of just some of those really big
top ten kick companies being fully valued, like Tesla trades
on two hundred times p which is pretty ritzy. The
good news is blue chip companies or quality companies that
(02:22):
sit outside of that top ten were left behind, and
twenty twenty five, in fact, some of those companies of
the most out of favor in thirty years, So that
bodes really well for focused, selective stop picking investors.
Speaker 2 (02:35):
What about picking particular markets like you know, Japan and Germany.
There's a lot of talk about their stimulus that you know,
pumping the cash and which often leads to the lift
in markets. Is that something that we should pay close
attention to or have we maybe missed the boat on
that already? That's what's the story there.
Speaker 1 (02:55):
I think that's important. That's one of the key lessons.
You and I spoke late late last year about what
were the key lessons of twenty twenty five. Well, the
key lesson is it's possible to make money outside of
the US, and for the third time in fifteen years,
non US markets outperformed the US, Japan, as you mentioned, China, Brazil,
emerging markets. There's some good places to make money. Japan
(03:20):
has had a specific stock market sort of stimulus package
going on. Apart from the fact they're trying to reflate
their economy, they've also told all of the companies that
are listed on their stock market that they must do
shareholder fenny things. They must use some of the lazy
cash on their balance sheet, they must pay higher dividends,
they must drive up return. So that's been really, really positive,
(03:41):
and I think there's still more to run there, notwithstanding
by the way that overriding risk of the price of
money there. I mean, just keep an eye on those
thirty year bonds. They moved very aggressively two days ago,
So we just want to make sure that the Bank
of Japan doesn't lose control of its bond market.
Speaker 2 (03:58):
Sam, if we were to have a Trump Liberation Day
outburst again tomorrow, this is just a hypothetical, but throw
it at you. Do you think the markets would react,
wouldn't react as dramatically as they did last year. Like
we kind of learned the lesson with him a little
bit that that he you know, he goes crazy, he
does the art of the deal thing, and then he
pulls back and does a deal.
Speaker 1 (04:18):
Yeah, I think it's it's a spot like one of
those diminishing marginal utility of the shock factor, right or
the out of the deal it is. I mean when
I talk about drinking from a fire hose to start
the year, that was most of those headlines were related
to Trump policies or tweets, should I say? And whether
it be captain credit card rates in the US. You know,
(04:43):
the Iran headlines have beenersuaded headlines, the Greenland headlines, and
I think he piled on so much, and those policies
came so thick and fast, and eventually the market did
link a couple of days ago. But then of course
he's already subsequently walked away from the Greenland threats to
an extent. The market had a big bounce overnight. So
I think you did right, Ryan. Is a diminishing marginal
(05:06):
utility of the shop factor.
Speaker 2 (05:08):
What about the Iran That's the next one on the
cab off the rank if we're to believe what's coming
out of the White House. We spoke to Marco Rubio's
former pres Sect today and he was saying, look, this
is the one you want to watch. This is coming next.
There's a troop build up or military build up in
the Middle East from the United States. Is that as
(05:28):
big a deal? Would it be as big a deal
to markets as say, the Greenland threats have been.
Speaker 1 (05:35):
I think these geopolitical you know, flare ups are always
concerning most not least, because there's a real human element.
Then we shouldn't forget about that. But what history does
tell us. You know, you can go back super long
term over one hundred and five years. You know, we've
had a couple of world wars, you know, a depression,
numerous recessions, and still markets are up, you know, hundreds
(05:59):
of fold you know. But then it even shorter term.
You go back to Ukraine and even if you'd had
tomorrow's newspaper yesterday wouldn't have made any money. People were
convinced that, you know, gas prices would saw, energy prices
would saw, grain prices would saw because you know, Ukraine's
a weak bowl of Europe. The factors the day before
(06:22):
Putin invaded was the highest price we saw for some
of those gas prices, the oil price, and some of
those food prices. So it's really hard to trade. The
point is it's really hard to trade around these geopolitical
events and politics as well the US midterm elections coming up.
That's the first point and the second point is, generally speaking,
and I don't say this lightly, the market fades these things.
(06:44):
They move on from these things fairly quickly. So I
would put that in the camp of not ultra important
for those three things the price of money or interest rates,
the price of stocks, and the direction of you know,
economic growth.
Speaker 2 (07:02):
Interesting. Thanks for letting me throw anything I can and
I want to hit you. Sam always appreciated the problem
you're inside. Sam Dicky Pusher funds with us Tonight.
Speaker 1 (07:11):
For more from Hither Duplessy Allen Drive, listen live to
news talks. It'd be from four pm weekdays, or follow
the podcast on iHeartRadio
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