Shane Solly: Harbour Asset Management expert on how markets have reacted to the fractious ceasefire news in the Middle East

US President Donald Trump's accused Iran of completely violating its ceasefire agreement - with the Strait of Hormuz closed again.

Iran's fired shots at ships in the Strait over the weekend, and has warned it'll stay closed until the US lifts its blockade.

Harbour Asset Management expert Shane Solly revealed how these developments could impact markets.

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Shane Solly Harbor asted management is with us. Hello Shane,
hello here that how have markets reacted chained to that
fractious midd East cease fire development?

Speaker 2 (00:08):
It was, it's certainly fractious. We've seen a bit of
an unwhining of this unwinning of the CIS fire progress
is really creating a bit more confusion for markets. So
just to remind you, last week on Friday, we had
the USHAR market up one point two percent with obviously
on the CIS fine news and some really good company
unions results. So the US market is actually up four
and hour percent last week. Right now as we speak,

(00:32):
US futures are looking like they're going to be down
between half a percent and point six percent. So let's
say in the market expects the US market to be
low locally. We tried to radiately on on the same
news ce IS far and the stronger US markets, and
we hit some really good company updates today, but actually
using our market into the day flat and for it's
a little bit stronger and he wait for shrom Pike

(00:54):
or healthy a little bit weaker. So yeah, tough day.

Speaker 1 (00:57):
Now, what is the market expecting from the CPI? The
inflation data tomorrow.

Speaker 2 (01:01):
Yeah, look the consumer price inflation data for the first
quarter twenty twenty six. The market's picking zero point eight percent,
which is up from zero point six the previous quarter.
Now zero point eight percent, that would mean the annual
number will be two point nine percent. Now we know
that that data is kind of a history already given
the Mid East conflict has already changed the outlook for inflation,
but it will influence whether the market thinks the Rezero

(01:24):
Bank needs to accelerate the pace or actually get on
with increasing the official care rate. And if you look
at where the markets are, we're pricing and the official
cares rate to be at three and a half percent
by June next year. That's one point two five percent
up from where it is now. Whatever, we're headwind for
the economy, which is of course what the why the
IRBNZ would rate increase rates to try and slow the

(01:45):
economy down. The other thing here is we've got the
quarterly Serve our Business Opinion out from NZII tomorrow and
that will be the first real indicator of the post
Midias conflict on how business confidences really formed. As a Yeah,
big data tomorrow for economic indicators, and.

Speaker 1 (01:58):
We had some okay, more okay New Zealand company announcements
out today, didn't.

Speaker 2 (02:02):
We Yeah, we did. Look. Fletcher Building, Genesis and Channel
all came out with worksually good, good announcements. Fletcher Building
has got Overseas Investment Office in ComCom approve or to
sell its construction businits to Lindsey. It's a head of
expectations that releases about thread of million and really helps
with Fletcher Buildings balance sheet. That shap price is up
two percent the day to two ninety three. Genesis announced

(02:25):
a financial investment decision on second stage of some more
battery storage at its Hompany plant. There's another one hundred
legal watts of BES, which is really helpful to firming
up electricity storage one hundred and six million dollars. It's
a pretty good price versus the first stage, so that
was a good outcome. Genesis ship price up zero point

(02:45):
four percent to twenty six and Channel agreed to contractual
terms of the New Zealand government for another ninety three
million leaders of diesel storage out till December twenty seven,
and that's helpful. That certainly generates about just a million
bucks a month for and or ship us slightly down
on the day to two ninety fours. Every point trinks
it down all.

Speaker 1 (03:05):
Right, Sean, Thanks as always, good to talk to you.
We'll talk to you again next week. Shane Solly, Harbor
Asset Management.

Speaker 2 (03:10):
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