August 12, 2026 • 11 mins
Tonight on The Huddle, Trish Sherson from Sherson Willis PR and Child Fund CEO Josie Pagani joined in on a discussion about the following issues of the day, and more!
Luxon's held on as Prime Minister after this latest leadership challenge - but what does this all mean going forward? Why couldn't Luxon's opponents get this across the line? Does this put them in better or worse shape for the election? Is the whole leadership kerfuffle good for Labour?
LISTEN ABOVE
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Listen
Watch
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
The Huddle with New Zealand Souderby's International Realty a name
you can trust locally and globally.
Speaker 2 (00:06):
All right, the ATMs with us Tris Shurson, Sharson, Willis
pr and Joe Spagunny Child Fund Chief Executive. Hello you too?
Speaker 3 (00:11):
Hello?
Speaker 1 (00:11):
Hello?
Speaker 2 (00:12):
How do you sum up to day?
Speaker 1 (00:13):
Trish?
Speaker 3 (00:14):
I think National have achieved something quite remarkable even for politics,
and that is to achieve both cock up and conspiracy.
Speaker 2 (00:26):
So well, you know is obvious, don't need to explain that, and.
Speaker 3 (00:31):
The conspiracy is what went on in the back end.
This is absolutely unprecedented. So first of all, this is
not a fractious first term opposition that's blood letting because
they can't get support and the lead into an election
to roller government. This is a first term governing National Party. Secondly,
(00:55):
this is now the third attempt at a coupe to
roll luxeen And because are.
Speaker 2 (01:00):
You counting the November one?
Speaker 3 (01:02):
So I'm counting the November one even though it was
called an embryonic co So in my view.
Speaker 4 (01:08):
If they've all been embryonic as well.
Speaker 3 (01:10):
If you are, if you are in particularly in cabinet
of a political party, one of the things that you
need to be able to organize is to roll the
leader if things aren't working, and I think this demonstrates
the issues in the National Party if they can't hold
an effective coup. And the other point is for National
(01:30):
they are now at consistently historically low polling levels. My
question after today's coup is where do those swing voters
go now? The risk is I think for National that
we know voters are grumpy and they are looking around
for alternatives, so they won't necessarily go to Labor who
voters are equally grumpy about. But they're going to be
(01:53):
looking around at Act New Zealand first, potentially even someone
else like the Opportunity Party.
Speaker 2 (02:01):
Okay, well, see the Opportunity Party, Trish is a problem
because that is a vote for the center left. So
are you of the opinion that they lose vote share
like that the center right government is returned but the
National Party loses votes to either side or are you
of the opinion that they lose the election.
Speaker 3 (02:16):
No, I think they are still going to win. That
center right will still take the election. It's on a
knife edge. It's close, absolutely, it's very very close. I
do think though they're in danger of vote share don't
forget that the Nats historically lose about four points on
polling going into an election, So if they're currently on
what even you know, twenty nine, that's going to put
(02:37):
them down to about twenty five percent.
Speaker 4 (02:39):
Yeah, I think start preparing for a labor government. I
think they've just garing change of government. Yep, I think it.
Speaker 2 (02:46):
How does that look practically? So where does explain to
me how a voter is going to where they switching
to to make that happen. But just look at what
it looks like.
Speaker 4 (02:56):
So I think you're right that. I don't think they'll
necessarily go to Labor. I think they'll go to Opportunity Party,
They'll go to hold their nose and go to New
Zealand first. Some will go to Act. Even if they
do scrape in though heather On a say a twenty
eight or a twenty nine or twenty seven or whatever,
and it's a weakened National led government or barely national
(03:18):
lad then it's going to be all on afterwards. I
just think, look, everybody looks bad from this, so Luxon
looks self serving. I mean, clearly, the best thing to
do for the National Party was to do a dignified
exit and put a new face on what are we
left with Now, It's going to still be no Luxe
(03:40):
and face on the billboards because they know he's not
an election vote winner. It's going to be the same campaign,
which is how awful all the other side is, and
not about the big thing that Luxon hasn't been able
to do, which is articulate a plan, a vision, a
sense of what his theory is of politics and how
he's going to grow New Zealand out of this hole
(04:02):
and deal with the world where we've got, you know,
the US threatening to invade Greenland and stuff like that.
So and the coup, you're absolutely right. I mean, if
you come at the King, you better not miss. And
they look weakened as well. I mean, for goodness sake
that they've attempted this coup and failed dismally. So either
they couldn't decide between Erica Stanford and Chris Bishop and
(04:24):
they just lost their nerve. But what they should do now,
if they want to take the high ground and not
look self serving, is I think they should resign, go
to the back benches and say, yep, we try to
coop because weera Stava Erica Staffan and Chris Bishop, and
I think the pink panther should have done it, should
have done it before.
Speaker 2 (04:42):
He got rolled that way you look better.
Speaker 3 (04:45):
Well, that's not going to happen. I think that's not
going to happen, but it should completely de stabilizing the issue.
I think for Chris Luxon from here, I keep getting
this image in my head today he's like one of
those balls at the end of a bullfight, mortally wounded
and ultimately the end is going to come. We just
don't know when it's going to come. The bigger issue,
(05:06):
I think that the problem that this didn't solve today. So, Okay,
Luxon got the numbers, but fundamentally, the problem that National
needs to solve is that it it currently can't connect
with voters. And how is Luxen continuing as a leader
going to change that now in the lead up to
the election.
Speaker 4 (05:26):
And it won't change Trius, Well, it won't change.
Speaker 3 (05:28):
But also even in the what was it fifty six
seconds of the stand up press conference when Christopher Luxean
came out to say, look, it's all good here and
we're all nothing happened, he repeated at least three times
this line where fixing the basics and building for the future.
What National haven't learned over three years is every time
they have come up with a slogan like that, whether
(05:50):
it's this, whether it's growth, growth, growth, whether it's getting
New Zealand back on track, saying something doesn't mean it
comes true. You have to actually do the work to
affect the challenge.
Speaker 2 (06:01):
Hanging a take, let's take a break, come back shortly.
Speaker 1 (06:04):
The huddle with New Zealand Southeby's International Realty the only
truly global.
Speaker 2 (06:09):
Brand, twelve away from sixty back of the huddle, Tricious
and Josepigani Trishman. You were just talking there. It sounds
like you think Josie already said she thinks this, but
it sounds like you think he should have quit today.
Speaker 3 (06:18):
I did think that well, if I were Christopher Luxe
and heading into today and effectively, this was the third
time that my leadership had been seriously challenged, and that
my ability to lead effectively had been a consistent negative
theme for this government and a drag on my party's popularity.
(06:39):
If it had been me today, I would have said, guys,
I hear it.
Speaker 2 (06:44):
You take it from here for the benefit of the party.
Speaker 3 (06:46):
The benefits of the party and for the country.
Speaker 2 (06:49):
Yeah, okay, yeah.
Speaker 4 (06:50):
I spent the afternoon failing, dismally trying to get Claudes
to create a picture of luxe and stand up with
bish and Erica Stanford standing behind him, and put Christopher
Hapkins in there, because if there's one person that's really
celebrating luxem staying on, it's the Labor Party, and it's
Chris Hopkins, and actually it's probably all the small parties.
Speaker 2 (07:11):
Would it have been like because everybody, if we're a
hot minute there yesterday it seemed Josie that the numbers
were coalescing around Erica Stanford and the offers were being made.
Mark Mitchell is her deputy, Chris Bishop is her finance right,
the thing was firming up for a minute there. If
she had taken it, would she necessarily have been better?
Speaker 1 (07:30):
Though?
Speaker 4 (07:31):
Oh? Look, immediately though that you would have got this
image of a strong woman that some don't like. And
I think her unlikability for some wasn't necessarily a negative
for her, because I got phoned up by CNN last
night to say, oh, is Erica Stanford the new Jacinda Adurn?
And I said no, they have completely different theories of politics.
(07:52):
You will never hear the words be kind coming out
of Erica Stanford's mouth, and that I think would be
a plus for her. So you have a strong woman.
You'd have Chris Bishop, who reaches out into a labor seat,
has won a labor seat before, so he can win
over some of those labor voters. You'd have Mitch Mark Mitchell,
who who is the sort of Rory Stewart of the
(08:14):
National Party, a decent conservative guy. So you would have
had this lineup that looked really new and different, and
we would be talking about, Wow, that's a big change.
So no longer would Opportunity inhabit the area of change.
It would be this new National Party. And they could
have campaigned honor much, done much more to do much
(08:35):
to risk.
Speaker 2 (08:37):
Problem was would have looked good. But problem was a
big risk, isn't it, Tritch? Because you never know if
somebody is going to be good at the job, will
suck at the job until they're in the job. They're
saving grace at the moment. Is they still win the
election because the center left sucks?
Speaker 3 (08:47):
Well, that's right. I mean, it was a terrible choice
that they were confronted with today and really, there was
no great there was no perfect answer, and we can't
tell whether the counter a counter narrative would have been
the better thing. I think the saving grace for the
center right and National particularly at the moment is that
(09:09):
Labor particularly are in such a frail state. Not only
have they failed to announce any sort of significant policy.
My view is that you know, we all said after
the Arduan government was elected surprisingly in twenty seventeen, when
Winston sort of picked them to govern, that they were
unprepared for government. In my view that despite being in
(09:30):
government for six years and on opposition for three, a
Labor Party under Chris Hopkins would be even more unprepared
for government. And there is very thin bench depth within
that Labor Party. So I think that is National saving
grace today.
Speaker 4 (09:46):
But I think you'll see the smaller parties. I mean,
already we've seen this flush towards Opportunity Party, which is
a kind of it's a kind of protest vote against
National and Labor. So I think you'll see more going
to Opportunity. I think you see some National voters going
to Opportunity saying you know, look, you guys have had
an absolute cluster of a day. You all look self serving.
(10:09):
You know that the coup makers couldn't decide who was
going to be first and second in the interests of
the party in the country. Trish and Luxon looks like
he's just put himself before everybody. So I wouldn't be
surprised if the smaller parties go up and you end
up with a sort of center left block led by
maybe a weekend labor but some of them can cobble
(10:31):
together a huge coalition.
Speaker 3 (10:34):
I actually I'm going to take a different take here.
I think one of the winners out of this may
be ACT. I think that David Seymour the line that he.
Speaker 2 (10:40):
Has become so statesmanlike, isn't he.
Speaker 3 (10:43):
He's been very clever. He's stayed out of the coalition
squabbling and in fact, through this whole thing today he's
focused on the messages for New Zealand and in fact
I saw him briefly this morning. You see, look all
of this aside. The one thing this government has to
focus on is getting through the RIMA reforms, which are
the most important thing we can do. So I think
that that ACT may be the winner here, especially if
(11:05):
they are those center center right voters who are frustrated
with National.
Speaker 4 (11:09):
Today fully and holy sick of politics.
Speaker 2 (11:12):
Yeah, I agree with you, guys. Thank you so much
for coming in. It's wonderful to see both of you.
Is Tris Sharson and Joe speganny Our a list huddle
who got called in for an emergency huddles for.
Speaker 1 (11:21):
More from Heather Duplessy Allen Drive. Listen live to news
Talks it'd be from four pm weekdays, or follow the
podcast on iHeartRadio
The Huddle with New Zealand Souderby's International Realty a name
you can trust locally and globally.
Speaker 2 (00:06):
All right, the ATMs with us Tris Shurson, Sharson, Willis
pr and Joe Spagunny Child Fund Chief Executive. Hello you too?
Speaker 3 (00:11):
Hello?
Speaker 1 (00:11):
Hello?
Speaker 2 (00:12):
How do you sum up to day?
Speaker 1 (00:13):
Trish?
Speaker 3 (00:14):
I think National have achieved something quite remarkable even for politics,
and that is to achieve both cock up and conspiracy.
Speaker 2 (00:26):
So well, you know is obvious, don't need to explain that, and.
Speaker 3 (00:31):
The conspiracy is what went on in the back end.
This is absolutely unprecedented. So first of all, this is
not a fractious first term opposition that's blood letting because
they can't get support and the lead into an election
to roller government. This is a first term governing National Party. Secondly,
(00:55):
this is now the third attempt at a coupe to
roll luxeen And because are.
Speaker 2 (01:00):
You counting the November one?
Speaker 3 (01:02):
So I'm counting the November one even though it was
called an embryonic co So in my view.
Speaker 4 (01:08):
If they've all been embryonic as well.
Speaker 3 (01:10):
If you are, if you are in particularly in cabinet
of a political party, one of the things that you
need to be able to organize is to roll the
leader if things aren't working, and I think this demonstrates
the issues in the National Party if they can't hold
an effective coup. And the other point is for National
(01:30):
they are now at consistently historically low polling levels. My
question after today's coup is where do those swing voters
go now? The risk is I think for National that
we know voters are grumpy and they are looking around
for alternatives, so they won't necessarily go to Labor who
voters are equally grumpy about. But they're going to be
(01:53):
looking around at Act New Zealand first, potentially even someone
else like the Opportunity Party.
Speaker 2 (02:01):
Okay, well, see the Opportunity Party, Trish is a problem
because that is a vote for the center left. So
are you of the opinion that they lose vote share
like that the center right government is returned but the
National Party loses votes to either side or are you
of the opinion that they lose the election.
Speaker 3 (02:16):
No, I think they are still going to win. That
center right will still take the election. It's on a
knife edge. It's close, absolutely, it's very very close. I
do think though they're in danger of vote share don't
forget that the Nats historically lose about four points on
polling going into an election, So if they're currently on
what even you know, twenty nine, that's going to put
(02:37):
them down to about twenty five percent.
Speaker 4 (02:39):
Yeah, I think start preparing for a labor government. I
think they've just garing change of government. Yep, I think it.
Speaker 2 (02:46):
How does that look practically? So where does explain to
me how a voter is going to where they switching
to to make that happen. But just look at what
it looks like.
Speaker 4 (02:56):
So I think you're right that. I don't think they'll
necessarily go to Labor. I think they'll go to Opportunity Party,
They'll go to hold their nose and go to New
Zealand first. Some will go to Act. Even if they
do scrape in though heather On a say a twenty
eight or a twenty nine or twenty seven or whatever,
and it's a weakened National led government or barely national
(03:18):
lad then it's going to be all on afterwards. I
just think, look, everybody looks bad from this, so Luxon
looks self serving. I mean, clearly, the best thing to
do for the National Party was to do a dignified
exit and put a new face on what are we
left with Now, It's going to still be no Luxe
(03:40):
and face on the billboards because they know he's not
an election vote winner. It's going to be the same campaign,
which is how awful all the other side is, and
not about the big thing that Luxon hasn't been able
to do, which is articulate a plan, a vision, a
sense of what his theory is of politics and how
he's going to grow New Zealand out of this hole
(04:02):
and deal with the world where we've got, you know,
the US threatening to invade Greenland and stuff like that.
So and the coup, you're absolutely right. I mean, if
you come at the King, you better not miss. And
they look weakened as well. I mean, for goodness sake
that they've attempted this coup and failed dismally. So either
they couldn't decide between Erica Stanford and Chris Bishop and
(04:24):
they just lost their nerve. But what they should do now,
if they want to take the high ground and not
look self serving, is I think they should resign, go
to the back benches and say, yep, we try to
coop because weera Stava Erica Staffan and Chris Bishop, and
I think the pink panther should have done it, should
have done it before.
Speaker 2 (04:42):
He got rolled that way you look better.
Speaker 3 (04:45):
Well, that's not going to happen. I think that's not
going to happen, but it should completely de stabilizing the issue.
I think for Chris Luxon from here, I keep getting
this image in my head today he's like one of
those balls at the end of a bullfight, mortally wounded
and ultimately the end is going to come. We just
don't know when it's going to come. The bigger issue,
(05:06):
I think that the problem that this didn't solve today. So, Okay,
Luxon got the numbers, but fundamentally, the problem that National
needs to solve is that it it currently can't connect
with voters. And how is Luxen continuing as a leader
going to change that now in the lead up to
the election.
Speaker 4 (05:26):
And it won't change Trius, Well, it won't change.
Speaker 3 (05:28):
But also even in the what was it fifty six
seconds of the stand up press conference when Christopher Luxean
came out to say, look, it's all good here and
we're all nothing happened, he repeated at least three times
this line where fixing the basics and building for the future.
What National haven't learned over three years is every time
they have come up with a slogan like that, whether
(05:50):
it's this, whether it's growth, growth, growth, whether it's getting
New Zealand back on track, saying something doesn't mean it
comes true. You have to actually do the work to
affect the challenge.
Speaker 2 (06:01):
Hanging a take, let's take a break, come back shortly.
Speaker 1 (06:04):
The huddle with New Zealand Southeby's International Realty the only
truly global.
Speaker 2 (06:09):
Brand, twelve away from sixty back of the huddle, Tricious
and Josepigani Trishman. You were just talking there. It sounds
like you think Josie already said she thinks this, but
it sounds like you think he should have quit today.
Speaker 3 (06:18):
I did think that well, if I were Christopher Luxe
and heading into today and effectively, this was the third
time that my leadership had been seriously challenged, and that
my ability to lead effectively had been a consistent negative
theme for this government and a drag on my party's popularity.
(06:39):
If it had been me today, I would have said, guys,
I hear it.
Speaker 2 (06:44):
You take it from here for the benefit of the party.
Speaker 3 (06:46):
The benefits of the party and for the country.
Speaker 2 (06:49):
Yeah, okay, yeah.
Speaker 4 (06:50):
I spent the afternoon failing, dismally trying to get Claudes
to create a picture of luxe and stand up with
bish and Erica Stanford standing behind him, and put Christopher
Hapkins in there, because if there's one person that's really
celebrating luxem staying on, it's the Labor Party, and it's
Chris Hopkins, and actually it's probably all the small parties.
Speaker 2 (07:11):
Would it have been like because everybody, if we're a
hot minute there yesterday it seemed Josie that the numbers
were coalescing around Erica Stanford and the offers were being made.
Mark Mitchell is her deputy, Chris Bishop is her finance right,
the thing was firming up for a minute there. If
she had taken it, would she necessarily have been better?
Speaker 1 (07:30):
Though?
Speaker 4 (07:31):
Oh? Look, immediately though that you would have got this
image of a strong woman that some don't like. And
I think her unlikability for some wasn't necessarily a negative
for her, because I got phoned up by CNN last
night to say, oh, is Erica Stanford the new Jacinda Adurn?
And I said no, they have completely different theories of politics.
(07:52):
You will never hear the words be kind coming out
of Erica Stanford's mouth, and that I think would be
a plus for her. So you have a strong woman.
You'd have Chris Bishop, who reaches out into a labor seat,
has won a labor seat before, so he can win
over some of those labor voters. You'd have Mitch Mark Mitchell,
who who is the sort of Rory Stewart of the
(08:14):
National Party, a decent conservative guy. So you would have
had this lineup that looked really new and different, and
we would be talking about, Wow, that's a big change.
So no longer would Opportunity inhabit the area of change.
It would be this new National Party. And they could
have campaigned honor much, done much more to do much
(08:35):
to risk.
Speaker 2 (08:37):
Problem was would have looked good. But problem was a
big risk, isn't it, Tritch? Because you never know if
somebody is going to be good at the job, will
suck at the job until they're in the job. They're
saving grace at the moment. Is they still win the
election because the center left sucks?
Speaker 3 (08:47):
Well, that's right. I mean, it was a terrible choice
that they were confronted with today and really, there was
no great there was no perfect answer, and we can't
tell whether the counter a counter narrative would have been
the better thing. I think the saving grace for the
center right and National particularly at the moment is that
(09:09):
Labor particularly are in such a frail state. Not only
have they failed to announce any sort of significant policy.
My view is that you know, we all said after
the Arduan government was elected surprisingly in twenty seventeen, when
Winston sort of picked them to govern, that they were
unprepared for government. In my view that despite being in
(09:30):
government for six years and on opposition for three, a
Labor Party under Chris Hopkins would be even more unprepared
for government. And there is very thin bench depth within
that Labor Party. So I think that is National saving
grace today.
Speaker 4 (09:46):
But I think you'll see the smaller parties. I mean,
already we've seen this flush towards Opportunity Party, which is
a kind of it's a kind of protest vote against
National and Labor. So I think you'll see more going
to Opportunity. I think you see some National voters going
to Opportunity saying you know, look, you guys have had
an absolute cluster of a day. You all look self serving.
(10:09):
You know that the coup makers couldn't decide who was
going to be first and second in the interests of
the party in the country. Trish and Luxon looks like
he's just put himself before everybody. So I wouldn't be
surprised if the smaller parties go up and you end
up with a sort of center left block led by
maybe a weekend labor but some of them can cobble
(10:31):
together a huge coalition.
Speaker 3 (10:34):
I actually I'm going to take a different take here.
I think one of the winners out of this may
be ACT. I think that David Seymour the line that he.
Speaker 2 (10:40):
Has become so statesmanlike, isn't he.
Speaker 3 (10:43):
He's been very clever. He's stayed out of the coalition
squabbling and in fact, through this whole thing today he's
focused on the messages for New Zealand and in fact
I saw him briefly this morning. You see, look all
of this aside. The one thing this government has to
focus on is getting through the RIMA reforms, which are
the most important thing we can do. So I think
that that ACT may be the winner here, especially if
(11:05):
they are those center center right voters who are frustrated
with National.
Speaker 4 (11:09):
Today fully and holy sick of politics.
Speaker 2 (11:12):
Yeah, I agree with you, guys. Thank you so much
for coming in. It's wonderful to see both of you.
Is Tris Sharson and Joe speganny Our a list huddle
who got called in for an emergency huddles for.
Speaker 1 (11:21):
More from Heather Duplessy Allen Drive. Listen live to news
Talks it'd be from four pm weekdays, or follow the
podcast on iHeartRadio
Popular Podcasts
Stuff You Should Know
If you've ever wanted to know about champagne, satanism, the Stonewall Uprising, chaos theory, LSD, El Nino, true crime and Rosa Parks, then look no further. Josh and Chuck have you covered.
Betrayal Weekly
Betrayal Weekly is back for a new season. Every Thursday, Betrayal Weekly shares first-hand accounts of broken trust, shocking deceptions, and the trail of destruction they leave behind. Hosted by Andrea Gunning, this weekly ongoing series digs into real-life stories of betrayal and the aftermath. From stories of double lives to dark discoveries, these are cautionary tales and accounts of resilience against all odds. From the producers of the critically acclaimed Betrayal series, Betrayal Weekly drops new episodes every Thursday. If you would like to share your story, you can reach out to the Betrayal Team by emailing them at betrayalpod@gmail.com and follow us on Instagram at @betrayalpod and @glasspodcasts. Please join our Substack for additional exclusive content, curated book recommendations, and community discussions. Sign up FREE by clicking this link Beyond Betrayal Substack. Join our community dedicated to truth, resilience, and healing. Your voice matters! Be a part of our Betrayal journey on Substack.
Dateline NBC
Current and classic episodes, featuring compelling true-crime mysteries, powerful documentaries and in-depth investigations. Follow now to get the latest episodes of Dateline NBC completely free, or subscribe to Dateline Premium for ad-free listening and exclusive bonus content: DatelinePremium.com