April 20, 2026 • 11 mins
Tonight on The Huddle, Trish Sherson from Sherson Willis PR and Child Fund CEO Josie Pagani joined in on a discussion about the following issues of the day - and more!
Everyone's waiting for the National Party caucus meeting in Wellington tomorrow morning. What do we think will happen here? Is Luxon on the way out?
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
The huddle with New Zealand Southeby's International Realty, a name
you can trust locally and globally. Well.
Speaker 2 (00:06):
Thus this evening we have Tris Shurson Shirson, Willis pr
and Joseph Garaney Child Found Chief Executive. High Ladies. Hello, okay, Trish,
do you have any idea what's going to happen in
caucus tomorrow?
Speaker 3 (00:17):
I do not have any idea what's going to happen?
Speaker 2 (00:19):
Can you call it on your vibes tomorrow?
Speaker 3 (00:23):
Last week I went to the Helen Clark play Helen Clark.
Was it a nice heard?
Speaker 2 (00:28):
I heard from the person who went with you that
it was wonderful.
Speaker 3 (00:31):
I tell you what that I am absolutely not a
live theater person, but that was great. And I think
what I loved about it is because I'm obviously a
bit of a political geek, and it really had a
good look inside a lot of the events we all
know about, one of which was the historic moment for
Helen Clark as a leader when her leadership vote was
on two percent, Labour's vote was on fourteen percent, and
(00:52):
senior males in her caucus went into her office late
at night and said, Helen basically, it's over. You're done.
You know you haven't got the support and we want
you gone. Helen looked at them and said, I will
see you in the caucus room in thirty minutes. You
will move a motion of no confidence and we'll see
(01:15):
where we get to. Thirty minutes later, the vote was
held and she won. She eyeballed them and stared them
down and that was it. That was the end of
the run.
Speaker 2 (01:24):
This is how you have to flush him out. So Luxon,
if he believes that he can retain it, needs to
call it tomorrow and put an end to it.
Speaker 3 (01:31):
So there's two options. I was listening to you and
Barry earlier and this and this also came to mind.
So you would think, yes, you would steer them down
and you'd say, once and for all, guys, this is it. Yeah. However,
there is a there is another way. It's a it's
a slightly softer way, maybe more Luxen. You go into
caucus tomorrow and you say to them, guys, you have
(01:52):
put me on notice today. I am putting you on notice.
Either you stop the leaks and you you back me,
or we will have a vote. I'll give you a
week to test it. Out and that's the second option.
Speaker 4 (02:07):
So you're a little bit scared of you at the moment.
Speaker 3 (02:11):
Well that is that is actually the second option. He
can also put them on notice, I tell you, because.
Speaker 2 (02:17):
That's a hairy week, Trish, because then that's a week
where the white anting goes nuclear.
Speaker 3 (02:21):
Well and well it totally is away, but it totally is.
But from everything I've heard from Luxen today, he is
not going to I don't think he's going to go
in and put a motion. I just I think if
he was going to do that, he would have done
that a few weeks ago. So what I'm trying to
think there is what is the second way here? And actually,
you know, national MPs also need to think through what
(02:43):
this is, what this is doing.
Speaker 2 (02:44):
Every week this.
Speaker 3 (02:45):
Goes on, they are also putting themselves at risk. So
it's not just Luxeon. Okay, performance hasn't been up to snuff,
but what they are doing now is putting votes even
more at risk and.
Speaker 2 (02:56):
They're going to lose their seats anyway, that's why they're
doing it.
Speaker 4 (02:58):
So the other way of looking at that is it
exactly that that you could say, right, you've got to
move quickly. The reason why he's going to survive tomorrow, Heather,
is that no one else has the numbers. They cannot
They cannot coalesce around Chris Bishop, who they think is
a bit too lefty and I know you guys don't
like him because he did his intensified housing. And they
can't consolidate around Mitch because he's a little bit too
(03:19):
much like Luxon. And they can't consolidate around Eric Stanford
because she's seen as not ready right, so he'll be
safe tomorrow. The problem is it's not going away, right,
That chatter is not going away, and what.
Speaker 2 (03:32):
Is he going to do exactly?
Speaker 4 (03:34):
So you could actually say the other alternative, Trish, is
that one of them, you know, grows some balls and spine,
you know, shiver, shiver, looking for a spine to grow up.
If they actually showed some courage and said right, I'm
going to go for it, and I'm going to get
the numbers and I'm going to work it. At the moment,
I think they're all too terrified to actually try and
(03:54):
do it. And look, the big problem with Luxen, you
know I've said this before. I think he's got the
work ethic of a prime minister. I don't think he
has the character of a prime minister. And if you're
asking him, what is he going to do differently from tomorrow?
You could say, just be more yourself. Well what of
being yourself as someone who walks into a room and
(04:15):
the room doesn't go wild, It goes semi domesticated at best.
He just doesn't inspire people. He cannot articulate a vision
for New Zealand. So none of that is going to change.
Budget is going to be a Bill Birch budget. It'll
be hand safe hand on the tiller. No, Lollie's missionary.
So what changes between now and the election? Thank you
(04:35):
for putting that in my mind. Now that's it's the
missionary budget, it's a missionary position budget.
Speaker 3 (04:42):
What is the artwork for that?
Speaker 2 (04:44):
Completely derailed here?
Speaker 3 (04:45):
But also I think those are all great points, Josie.
I think what I come back to is what we
always forget. So we're all talking about national, what are
voters thinking right now? They are thinking I was already
had question marks over National. I'm already looking around and
I'm seeing other people connect with me. Better talk straight,
(05:06):
even if it's well, even if it's yeah, if it's
if it's out.
Speaker 2 (05:10):
There, stuff.
Speaker 3 (05:12):
And that is National's problem that voters look at this
stuff and they go, how can I trust you if
you can't get your shit to get.
Speaker 2 (05:20):
Hold the thought, Hold those thoughts because I'm not finished
with this, and we'll come back to this after the break.
Speaker 1 (05:24):
The Huddle with New Zealand Southeby's International Realty the only
truly global brand.
Speaker 2 (05:29):
Right, you're back with the huddle, Josephgani and tricious and right. So, Josie,
what needs to happen here? Because we've discussed the troublemakers
as being selfish, you know, is it not possible we
could flip it and we could say the Prime minister's
continued ongoing determination to hold the role is also selfish
and he may need to let go for the sake
of the party and there'd be a coronation, don't you think?
Speaker 4 (05:51):
How low does it have to go? That's the question.
So the polling does it have to go to twenty nine,
twenty twenty eight, consistently, twenty seven, et cetera.
Speaker 2 (05:58):
It's not far off. The fall colors took it to
about twenty four.
Speaker 4 (06:02):
So you know, if it gets what is the point
that it has to get to? Where he does the
decent thing, takes it on the chin and says I
am stepping aside. I've done my best, and then there
could be a coronation, so you don't get the disunity story.
And then you know, as we've talked in the break,
it's either betweens might Mitchell Mitchell, or it's between someone
(06:23):
like Chris Bishop, and my money would be Erica Willis. Actually,
well you imagine I reckon a Chris Bishop. Erica Stanford
combo would be the one that would appeal to people,
you know, on the sort of center left like me
as I know you guys, you know you think mucked
it up on the housing intensification in Auckland, But he's
(06:44):
popular with those in the center, those who are drifted between.
Speaker 2 (06:47):
You're conservative for your conservative voter because now you've got
too liberally.
Speaker 4 (06:50):
He's got well, Erica Stanford. You've got Nicola Willis in
you know you continue her as finance minister, so you've
got Erica Stanford. Well, you know, really.
Speaker 2 (07:02):
But here are the voters.
Speaker 3 (07:03):
Here's a missing bit. And this is also National's big r.
Kelly's heel right. They not only have they lost support
and there is an argument that says, hey, thirty years
on under MP, and I think the PM even ran
this this morning. Perhaps the large parties from here are
going to always sit at around thirty percent. That could
(07:24):
be a new reality. But the voting block that we
are missing and that National is really struggling with the
center right overall, is the women vote. Speaking to an
ex Cabinet minister recently, he made the excellent point that
in New Zealand, the Auckland voters critical, but the women's
vote wins or loses elections. Right now, Let's not forget
(07:45):
that when National and Act and News invers secretly rolled
back pay equity, that really was a massive hit to
the women's vote for them. So even if you weren't
so much into pay equity, there was a general sort
of an eck feel for women voters. And as my
read on polling, the center left has been out polling
(08:08):
the center right in the critical eighteen to forty nine
women's vote consistently at about.
Speaker 2 (08:13):
Four to one.
Speaker 4 (08:14):
Massive massive issue there, though, Trisha, I think it's yes,
you know, you can kind of segment segment the voters.
You know, women voters here, you know New Zealand first
voters are hoovering up national votes at the moment. But
a bigger question is you know, if elections are an exam,
then voters set the question and when parties decide to
(08:36):
answer another question, they get punished. Right, So you know,
I look at the rise of Winston Peters at the moment,
and he's talking about the things that people are talking about,
cost to living power, prices, supermarkets, you know. So on
the problem for Luxe and I think is that he's
talked about growth. Now, no one uses the word growth.
They talk about jobs, they talk about you know, new
(08:58):
businesses setting up and whatever. They talk about. My community
is doing really well. No one talks about infrastructure. They
talk about the state of the roads and roads, but
don't just not talking to voters.
Speaker 3 (09:09):
I totally get that, and we've talked about that with
New Zealand First rally recently. They are the only party
at the moment really connecting with their voters. But here's
the reality of that that New Zealand First are running
the Nigel Farage reform playbook.
Speaker 2 (09:23):
Right.
Speaker 3 (09:24):
It is exactly the same thing where you are all about.
Their strategy is getting little pockets of very disaffected voters
and disparate voters, anti vax anti woke, anti treaty, anti immigration,
anti and you cobble them all into into a voter
block New Zealand First, and they have all of the
same hallmarks. You have these headlines that don't have any
(09:48):
policy prescriptions sitting behind them, and you have overall a
platform that is about what we're against, not what we're for.
Speaker 2 (09:57):
And that is.
Speaker 4 (10:00):
Because if you think that like between eleven and fifteen
percent now for New Zealand First right, I would argue
that actually, you know, whether we like it or not,
they're coming up with policies are separate supermarkets, break up
the energy, gent tailors and so on. So they are
actually coming up with some substance which is a little
bit more than just the looney fringe groups that you
just talked about. It's also pulling over from labor, pulling
(10:22):
over from national and that's why they're succeeding, not because
they're being Nigel Faraji.
Speaker 3 (10:27):
No, but it is the same farage thing because they're
tapping into that voter anger and there's a hallmark behind
all their policy announcements where there is a headline but
there is nothing else behind it. And in my view
the risk we're getting into in New Zealand politics, and
this is why it's so important that National if they
(10:49):
can get their shit together, they need to because this
is a critical election for New Zealand. This is the
election where we need to be focusing thirty to forty
years ahead. We need to be looking at the big stuff,
So like, how are we not going to fall over
the Fystal fiscal cliff that we're driving towards a guy
we haven't.
Speaker 4 (11:06):
Talked about who we haven't talked about labor.
Speaker 3 (11:09):
Well because we don't know what they're doing.
Speaker 2 (11:11):
So we will pick this up next week, I suppose.
Speaker 1 (11:13):
Guys.
Speaker 2 (11:13):
It's lovely to chat, do you. Thanks so much, Trus Shurson, Sharson,
Willis pr Jo Spaghani with Child Fund.
Speaker 1 (11:18):
For more from Hither Duplessy Allen Drive, listen live to
news talks. It'd be from four pm weekdays, or follow
the podcast on iHeartRadio
The huddle with New Zealand Southeby's International Realty, a name
you can trust locally and globally. Well.
Speaker 2 (00:06):
Thus this evening we have Tris Shurson Shirson, Willis pr
and Joseph Garaney Child Found Chief Executive. High Ladies. Hello, okay, Trish,
do you have any idea what's going to happen in
caucus tomorrow?
Speaker 3 (00:17):
I do not have any idea what's going to happen?
Speaker 2 (00:19):
Can you call it on your vibes tomorrow?
Speaker 3 (00:23):
Last week I went to the Helen Clark play Helen Clark.
Was it a nice heard?
Speaker 2 (00:28):
I heard from the person who went with you that
it was wonderful.
Speaker 3 (00:31):
I tell you what that I am absolutely not a
live theater person, but that was great. And I think
what I loved about it is because I'm obviously a
bit of a political geek, and it really had a
good look inside a lot of the events we all
know about, one of which was the historic moment for
Helen Clark as a leader when her leadership vote was
on two percent, Labour's vote was on fourteen percent, and
(00:52):
senior males in her caucus went into her office late
at night and said, Helen basically, it's over. You're done.
You know you haven't got the support and we want
you gone. Helen looked at them and said, I will
see you in the caucus room in thirty minutes. You
will move a motion of no confidence and we'll see
(01:15):
where we get to. Thirty minutes later, the vote was
held and she won. She eyeballed them and stared them
down and that was it. That was the end of
the run.
Speaker 2 (01:24):
This is how you have to flush him out. So Luxon,
if he believes that he can retain it, needs to
call it tomorrow and put an end to it.
Speaker 3 (01:31):
So there's two options. I was listening to you and
Barry earlier and this and this also came to mind.
So you would think, yes, you would steer them down
and you'd say, once and for all, guys, this is it. Yeah. However,
there is a there is another way. It's a it's
a slightly softer way, maybe more Luxen. You go into
caucus tomorrow and you say to them, guys, you have
(01:52):
put me on notice today. I am putting you on notice.
Either you stop the leaks and you you back me,
or we will have a vote. I'll give you a
week to test it. Out and that's the second option.
Speaker 4 (02:07):
So you're a little bit scared of you at the moment.
Speaker 3 (02:11):
Well that is that is actually the second option. He
can also put them on notice, I tell you, because.
Speaker 2 (02:17):
That's a hairy week, Trish, because then that's a week
where the white anting goes nuclear.
Speaker 3 (02:21):
Well and well it totally is away, but it totally is.
But from everything I've heard from Luxen today, he is
not going to I don't think he's going to go
in and put a motion. I just I think if
he was going to do that, he would have done
that a few weeks ago. So what I'm trying to
think there is what is the second way here? And actually,
you know, national MPs also need to think through what
(02:43):
this is, what this is doing.
Speaker 2 (02:44):
Every week this.
Speaker 3 (02:45):
Goes on, they are also putting themselves at risk. So
it's not just Luxeon. Okay, performance hasn't been up to snuff,
but what they are doing now is putting votes even
more at risk and.
Speaker 2 (02:56):
They're going to lose their seats anyway, that's why they're
doing it.
Speaker 4 (02:58):
So the other way of looking at that is it
exactly that that you could say, right, you've got to
move quickly. The reason why he's going to survive tomorrow, Heather,
is that no one else has the numbers. They cannot
They cannot coalesce around Chris Bishop, who they think is
a bit too lefty and I know you guys don't
like him because he did his intensified housing. And they
can't consolidate around Mitch because he's a little bit too
(03:19):
much like Luxon. And they can't consolidate around Eric Stanford
because she's seen as not ready right, so he'll be
safe tomorrow. The problem is it's not going away, right,
That chatter is not going away, and what.
Speaker 2 (03:32):
Is he going to do exactly?
Speaker 4 (03:34):
So you could actually say the other alternative, Trish, is
that one of them, you know, grows some balls and spine,
you know, shiver, shiver, looking for a spine to grow up.
If they actually showed some courage and said right, I'm
going to go for it, and I'm going to get
the numbers and I'm going to work it. At the moment,
I think they're all too terrified to actually try and
(03:54):
do it. And look, the big problem with Luxen, you
know I've said this before. I think he's got the
work ethic of a prime minister. I don't think he
has the character of a prime minister. And if you're
asking him, what is he going to do differently from tomorrow?
You could say, just be more yourself. Well what of
being yourself as someone who walks into a room and
(04:15):
the room doesn't go wild, It goes semi domesticated at best.
He just doesn't inspire people. He cannot articulate a vision
for New Zealand. So none of that is going to change.
Budget is going to be a Bill Birch budget. It'll
be hand safe hand on the tiller. No, Lollie's missionary.
So what changes between now and the election? Thank you
(04:35):
for putting that in my mind. Now that's it's the
missionary budget, it's a missionary position budget.
Speaker 3 (04:42):
What is the artwork for that?
Speaker 2 (04:44):
Completely derailed here?
Speaker 3 (04:45):
But also I think those are all great points, Josie.
I think what I come back to is what we
always forget. So we're all talking about national, what are
voters thinking right now? They are thinking I was already
had question marks over National. I'm already looking around and
I'm seeing other people connect with me. Better talk straight,
(05:06):
even if it's well, even if it's yeah, if it's
if it's out.
Speaker 2 (05:10):
There, stuff.
Speaker 3 (05:12):
And that is National's problem that voters look at this
stuff and they go, how can I trust you if
you can't get your shit to get.
Speaker 2 (05:20):
Hold the thought, Hold those thoughts because I'm not finished
with this, and we'll come back to this after the break.
Speaker 1 (05:24):
The Huddle with New Zealand Southeby's International Realty the only
truly global brand.
Speaker 2 (05:29):
Right, you're back with the huddle, Josephgani and tricious and right. So, Josie,
what needs to happen here? Because we've discussed the troublemakers
as being selfish, you know, is it not possible we
could flip it and we could say the Prime minister's
continued ongoing determination to hold the role is also selfish
and he may need to let go for the sake
of the party and there'd be a coronation, don't you think?
Speaker 4 (05:51):
How low does it have to go? That's the question.
So the polling does it have to go to twenty nine,
twenty twenty eight, consistently, twenty seven, et cetera.
Speaker 2 (05:58):
It's not far off. The fall colors took it to
about twenty four.
Speaker 4 (06:02):
So you know, if it gets what is the point
that it has to get to? Where he does the
decent thing, takes it on the chin and says I
am stepping aside. I've done my best, and then there
could be a coronation, so you don't get the disunity story.
And then you know, as we've talked in the break,
it's either betweens might Mitchell Mitchell, or it's between someone
(06:23):
like Chris Bishop, and my money would be Erica Willis. Actually,
well you imagine I reckon a Chris Bishop. Erica Stanford
combo would be the one that would appeal to people,
you know, on the sort of center left like me
as I know you guys, you know you think mucked
it up on the housing intensification in Auckland, But he's
(06:44):
popular with those in the center, those who are drifted between.
Speaker 2 (06:47):
You're conservative for your conservative voter because now you've got
too liberally.
Speaker 4 (06:50):
He's got well, Erica Stanford. You've got Nicola Willis in
you know you continue her as finance minister, so you've
got Erica Stanford. Well, you know, really.
Speaker 2 (07:02):
But here are the voters.
Speaker 3 (07:03):
Here's a missing bit. And this is also National's big r.
Kelly's heel right. They not only have they lost support
and there is an argument that says, hey, thirty years
on under MP, and I think the PM even ran
this this morning. Perhaps the large parties from here are
going to always sit at around thirty percent. That could
(07:24):
be a new reality. But the voting block that we
are missing and that National is really struggling with the
center right overall, is the women vote. Speaking to an
ex Cabinet minister recently, he made the excellent point that
in New Zealand, the Auckland voters critical, but the women's
vote wins or loses elections. Right now, Let's not forget
(07:45):
that when National and Act and News invers secretly rolled
back pay equity, that really was a massive hit to
the women's vote for them. So even if you weren't
so much into pay equity, there was a general sort
of an eck feel for women voters. And as my
read on polling, the center left has been out polling
(08:08):
the center right in the critical eighteen to forty nine
women's vote consistently at about.
Speaker 2 (08:13):
Four to one.
Speaker 4 (08:14):
Massive massive issue there, though, Trisha, I think it's yes,
you know, you can kind of segment segment the voters.
You know, women voters here, you know New Zealand first
voters are hoovering up national votes at the moment. But
a bigger question is you know, if elections are an exam,
then voters set the question and when parties decide to
(08:36):
answer another question, they get punished. Right, So you know,
I look at the rise of Winston Peters at the moment,
and he's talking about the things that people are talking about,
cost to living power, prices, supermarkets, you know. So on
the problem for Luxe and I think is that he's
talked about growth. Now, no one uses the word growth.
They talk about jobs, they talk about you know, new
(08:58):
businesses setting up and whatever. They talk about. My community
is doing really well. No one talks about infrastructure. They
talk about the state of the roads and roads, but
don't just not talking to voters.
Speaker 3 (09:09):
I totally get that, and we've talked about that with
New Zealand First rally recently. They are the only party
at the moment really connecting with their voters. But here's
the reality of that that New Zealand First are running
the Nigel Farage reform playbook.
Speaker 2 (09:23):
Right.
Speaker 3 (09:24):
It is exactly the same thing where you are all about.
Their strategy is getting little pockets of very disaffected voters
and disparate voters, anti vax anti woke, anti treaty, anti immigration,
anti and you cobble them all into into a voter
block New Zealand First, and they have all of the
same hallmarks. You have these headlines that don't have any
(09:48):
policy prescriptions sitting behind them, and you have overall a
platform that is about what we're against, not what we're for.
Speaker 2 (09:57):
And that is.
Speaker 4 (10:00):
Because if you think that like between eleven and fifteen
percent now for New Zealand First right, I would argue
that actually, you know, whether we like it or not,
they're coming up with policies are separate supermarkets, break up
the energy, gent tailors and so on. So they are
actually coming up with some substance which is a little
bit more than just the looney fringe groups that you
just talked about. It's also pulling over from labor, pulling
(10:22):
over from national and that's why they're succeeding, not because
they're being Nigel Faraji.
Speaker 3 (10:27):
No, but it is the same farage thing because they're
tapping into that voter anger and there's a hallmark behind
all their policy announcements where there is a headline but
there is nothing else behind it. And in my view
the risk we're getting into in New Zealand politics, and
this is why it's so important that National if they
(10:49):
can get their shit together, they need to because this
is a critical election for New Zealand. This is the
election where we need to be focusing thirty to forty
years ahead. We need to be looking at the big stuff,
So like, how are we not going to fall over
the Fystal fiscal cliff that we're driving towards a guy
we haven't.
Speaker 4 (11:06):
Talked about who we haven't talked about labor.
Speaker 3 (11:09):
Well because we don't know what they're doing.
Speaker 2 (11:11):
So we will pick this up next week, I suppose.
Speaker 1 (11:13):
Guys.
Speaker 2 (11:13):
It's lovely to chat, do you. Thanks so much, Trus Shurson, Sharson,
Willis pr Jo Spaghani with Child Fund.
Speaker 1 (11:18):
For more from Hither Duplessy Allen Drive, listen live to
news talks. It'd be from four pm weekdays, or follow
the podcast on iHeartRadio
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