Emma Higgins: Rabobank Senior Agricultural Analyst on New Zealand holding its position as the world's largest single-country dairy exporter

New Zealand's milking it in the dairy market, holding our place as the world’s largest single-country dairy exporter. 

Rabobank’s World Dairy Map shows we accounted for 22.1% of global exports last year. 

It highlights global dairy trade grew by 11% across this time frame. 

Rabobank Senior Agricultural Analyst Emma Higgins told Mike Hosking that China is still the biggest customer in the global dairy space, but it’s no longer the only growth story. 

She says that new growth markets are emerging in places like the Middle East, and closer to home in Southeast Asia. 

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
How about these stats. We are still the dairy capital
of the world. This is the Rabobank report latest. We're
account of a twenty two point one percent of global
dairy last year. Emma Higgins is the Rabobank Senior AG
analyst and is with us. Emma, very good morning to you.

Speaker 2 (00:12):
Good morning mate.

Speaker 1 (00:13):
Fairly consistent story, isn't it. Twenty one twenty two billion
ish kg's to the world a year, has been that
way for a long period of time.

Speaker 2 (00:20):
Yeah, that's right. We're in a little country of about
five million people, but we certainly pack a lot of
punch when it comes to a dairy trade. More than
one and every five kilograms of dairy traded around the
world sits with us. So certainly a continuation of that
good news story in the dairy space.

Speaker 1 (00:35):
If you go back far enough, though, so go back
to twenty seventeen, you're looking at China and their role,
and this whole story is being a little bit more
prevalent than it is currently. Does China need to come
back more or is this the new normal?

Speaker 2 (00:47):
Yeah, that's an interesting question. It's one that every exporter
is thinking about right now, because China still is the
biggest dairy customer in the global dairy space, but it
is no longer the only growth story. So when it
comes to a fund milk price, we do still rely
on China very heavily in terms of really moving that
needle in a really positive way. But what we have

(01:08):
seen is that there are some new growth markets that
are emerging, absolutely in the New Zealand space. We're looking
at those markets as well, and certainly places in the
Middle East for example, where their appetite for milk powders
is pretty strong, and then also closer to home as
well around Southeast Asia.

Speaker 1 (01:24):
What about the protein story? That protein side of the equation,
is that demand forever increasing, your middle classes, health eating
all that sort of stuff.

Speaker 2 (01:34):
Absolutely, So that's one of the biggest trends that we've
see that's driving the global dairy demand story right now,
and we've seen that coming through in the GDT. We've
got another one coming up this week, and that protein
story has been driving up that stim milk powder price
and ultimately it is playing into farmer's hands here in
New Zealand because it's helpful in terms of hopefully helping

(01:54):
to keep their milk price at a competitive level.

Speaker 1 (01:57):
I haven't. I mean, that's all volume, and I get
that cheese. I hadn't looked at that in terms of growth.
The growth in cheese is amazing, isn't it.

Speaker 2 (02:05):
Yeah, it's huge. That's the story right now, and particularly
when it comes to the United States, which is playing
a huge role in that, and that's probably our biggest
competitive threat if we think about it from a New
Zealand lens as well. The United States is producing a
heck of a lot more milk. They've got a lot
more hoofs on the ground. I've got about two hundred
thousand extra cows at this point in time compared to

(02:26):
last year, so they're pumping out more milk that I've
invested really heavily, and processing capacity and also the export capability.
So twenty twenty five saw a massive increase in terms
of their global export share from eleven percent in twenty
seventeen to about thirteen and a half last year. Most
of that was cheese, and we are seeing certainly those

(02:48):
similar trends already for twenty twenty six.

Speaker 1 (02:50):
Fantastic good insight him. I appreciate Emma Higgins out of
Rabobank this morning. Our daughter's working in the States at
the moment, and the cheese is all orange and it's
not really cheese, of course, and so we need to
see more New Zealand chooses in that particular market. For
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