Full Show Podcast: 09 April 2026

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Opinion, Edit, Informed, und apologetic, The mic Hosking Breakfast with
A Veda, Retirement, Communities, Life, Your Way, News, togs Head,
be alling.

Speaker 2 (00:09):
And welcome Today it seased by our plumber and oil
new Hope or not. The Finance Minister on the state
of the place, the Reserve Bank Governor on the state
of the place. Maddy Paine is in ahead of supercars
doublehead of this weekend, Joe McKenna in Italy and Rod
Liddle rolls in from Great Britain as well. Pascar we go,
firstday morning, seven past six. So it was four to
six weeks then, wasn't it. Why Because from the earliest

(00:29):
of days Iran had little of anything to retaliate with
America would be able, in one way or another to
claim at some point victory. The specifics of the victory
were not important, the same way Gaza, now long forgotten
and its ten trails were not important either. The war
ends We move on. What went wrong was, of course
the strait, a stunning miscalculation, but one nevertheless that has
been sorted hopefully. At all times, As we said over

(00:52):
and over, America needed out. The pain was too high,
the markets were too low, the midterms were too close.
All these sort of conflicts end in a mine moment.
The amount of drama attached to the moment varies. In
this case, you had a regime that would happily have
been pummeled if only they could re emerge from the
rubble and say they'd survived against a regime that essentially
won the military bit within a week, but had miscalculated

(01:15):
a couple of details that bogged them down. Trump's desperation
was shown over the past forty eight hours in a
press conference in a social media post, So desperate the
panic has rolled out the twenty fifth Amendment argument. This
whole thing never had the legs to go past six weeks.
America was never invading Iran was never giving up. But
it was always fairly clear that both positions would be
established and exhausted fairly quickly. For those who argue this

(01:38):
is a cease fire, not the end, you probably argue
this was going to expand as well and become World
War three. It wasn't, It isn't. This will be it
the same way Iraq was, that Syria was that pick
you war, pickure attack. It always ends the same way.
The world is not ready to end itself as hapless
and hopeless as parts are.

Speaker 3 (01:56):
Self.

Speaker 2 (01:57):
Destruction is beyond us, except possibly people like the Uranians,
who with the right weaponry may well not care. But
then that's why this whole thing started in the first place,
wasn't it. Both will claim victory and indeed are. There
may be skirmishes or two for the following few days,
but the strait is open ish. The signs of a
relief are real. The clock ticked at thirty days and
then stopped five weeks three days. As mad as the

(02:20):
Americans might have seemed at times, you don't say four
to six if you don't have a plan and a timeline,
and if you don't know, you don't promise.

Speaker 1 (02:31):
News of the world in ninety seconds.

Speaker 2 (02:33):
Now when you are claiming victory, and as I say,
everyone is, who better to roll out than Pete? We
kick their ass.

Speaker 4 (02:39):
Hexcept and overwhelming victory on the battlefield, a capital v
military victory by any measure. Epic fury decimated Iran's military
and rendered it combat ineffective for years to come.

Speaker 2 (02:55):
The Iranians fairly bullish on the strait.

Speaker 5 (02:57):
They do believe that you can arrange.

Speaker 6 (03:01):
You're realistic.

Speaker 7 (03:03):
The factual mechanism for safe passage through the state of formals.

Speaker 2 (03:11):
There are reports in the past couple of bounds that
these strides a bit sticky, given arounds concerns have a
libing on still being bombed, very.

Speaker 8 (03:16):
High a number of casualties.

Speaker 9 (03:19):
The most recent number coming from the Ministry of Health
is more than an eighty killed and hundreds injured.

Speaker 8 (03:27):
This number is definitely increasing.

Speaker 2 (03:30):
By Feminine Zukiya who's in Saudi Arabia, he's upbeating.

Speaker 10 (03:33):
There's work to do, and I'm here in Saudi Arabia
and neighboring countries now to carry out that work and
support what we're all seeking. Witches that this CEASPI should
be not a temporary ceaspar but a permanentya.

Speaker 2 (03:47):
Spar Now there's also a fairly long line of people
who have questions about what was actually achieved.

Speaker 11 (03:52):
So on those four issues, there's four main issues for
the United States, they've got nothing like what they have wanted.
In fact order, those issues are more or less where
they were, or in the case of regime change, if
it worse than they were.

Speaker 2 (04:04):
Yeah, oil of course is falling. So everyone's asking when
do we see that at the pump of the airport.

Speaker 7 (04:08):
It has some parally effect, but you know, getting back
to where we were need to be will check a period.

Speaker 2 (04:17):
Of so don't think it's got enough new weeks that
references airlines particularly, I've got more on that in the moment.
By the way, finally, something for something for the pull
room for you. When the French restored the Eiffel Tower
back in the eighties, they pulled out some stairs to
put in the new elevators. Now twenty of these sections
were sold off. But now the Pistar oh is still
section number one fourteen steps spiral ay fourteen step Who

(04:39):
doesn't love a spiral stepcat connected the second and third floors,
expectation three hundred thousand dollars. But but section number thirteen,
which was auction back in twenty sixteen threet a million.
So that's news of the world of ninety. Yeah, the
airlines Delta this morning. They are meaningfully their word, not mine,
reducing their capacity growth plans in the near term. So

(05:00):
they join United and Jet Blue saying basically the same thing.
So it's a good news bad news day. But Indigo,
which is India's largest airline, they were running three hundred
and fifty flights a day into the Gulf curtailed heavily
during the war itself. Of course, that their shares are
up more than eleven percent, they're very bullsh on what's
happened in the last twenty four hours. So glass half
full or glass half empty? Twelve past six.

Speaker 1 (05:23):
The Mike Asking Breakfast Full Show podcast on iHeartRadio powered
by News.

Speaker 12 (05:28):
Talks evy.

Speaker 2 (05:31):
Anna Braman, who's the Reserve Bank governor and will be
with us later on the program. Wasn't the only Reserve
bank governor at yesterday? The Indians held their cash rate
that remained unchanged at five to five. Fifteen past six,
I'm sure, and partner Sandra Kella had good morning, Very
good morning, Mike boy. Aren't we off to the races
this morning?

Speaker 13 (05:50):
Eh?

Speaker 14 (05:50):
It's been a very eventful twenty four hours, hasn't it.
I mean it's exhausting keeping up yesterday, Mike.

Speaker 2 (05:57):
Just from the point of view of New.

Speaker 14 (05:58):
Zealand markets, we had the preseas fire market, we had
the post cease fire market, and then we had the
post RB and Z market, so it was three markets
in one day.

Speaker 2 (06:08):
When we went to bed last night.

Speaker 14 (06:10):
The parties had agreed the two parties in the Middle's
conflict to suspend attacks for two weeks subject to the
reopening of the straits. The film wasn't according Asrael as
though the ceasfire didn't apply to Lebanon. That could still
be a bit of a fly in the arment. But
last mic last night Mike I was writing some notes.
I said, Look, the agreement seems fragile. It doesn't seem
to preclude the terror and toll booth.

Speaker 2 (06:30):
But at the end of the.

Speaker 14 (06:32):
Day, we just need to look through all of the
rhetoric and just ask the question, our ships with oil
in their bellies actually moving through the strait, So the
proof will be in the passage of ships, all the
movement of oil. From an economic point of view, And
I'm not going to join in this morning the inexhaustible
debate over what has been achieved geopolitically. Financial markets did

(06:54):
and have reacted, and the screens this morning are shown
an absolute sea of green numbers. As we stand, the
Dow Jones is up, you know, two point nine percent,
the S and P five hundred and two and a
half percent, the nasdac's up over three percent. Look news
in the last hour that maybe all is not well
in the seas. Fire may way into the close, but
we are absolutely we are not out of the woods MIC,

(07:17):
but the trees are definitely clearing. US interest rates.

Speaker 2 (07:22):
I'm looking at the US ten year eight.

Speaker 14 (07:23):
It's at four point two eight. It's stable, MIC, but
I do note that at the end of February and
winter this that rate was at three point ninety five percent,
so there is there's some lingering issues there that will
have to resolve over the next couple of weeks. Oil
is the big mover on the day. As I look
at it now ninety four dollars and thirty four cents.
It's down almost fifteen percent. Did hit ninety bucks at

(07:44):
one stage. The whole forward curve has fallen right out
into twenty twenty seven. But prices, if I look at
that Ford curve MIC, are still higher than pre conflict,
and I suppose my concern that a geopolitical premium will
still be built into all for sometime. I think that's
still valid. Local markets and Asian markets they joined the rally.
Asian markets, I would say enthusiastically, some markets up over

(08:08):
five percent. European markets as well, but Germany was up
over five percent. Kiwi dollar straight away went up. It
was up over fifty eight cents. The local share market
up one hundred and eighty four points. Looked still below
levels from our share market than we were when February closed,
so it was one point four percent lift. Local interest
rates on the ceasefire they fell quite quite a bit,

(08:30):
but that was.

Speaker 2 (08:31):
Before the rbn Z mic and that changed. That changed
the scenario and the workers through. She's with us after
seven to thirty, So work us through how you saw it.

Speaker 14 (08:38):
Sure, nothing to see in the ocup. It was unchanged.
But as we talked about yesterday, the underlying approach of
looking through the first round effects that was precage in
the March twenty fourth speech. That was confirmed. So a
tip for transparency for the rbn zaid there. But the
markets might have taken a view on associated commentary and
forward assumption. So I think if you had to apply

(08:59):
a a short fifty verdict, a hawkish hold would be
the would be the description the summary of the meeting,
which we always look at. That was consistent with the
points raised in the March twenty four meeting. Inflation is
set to increase, growth weakened in the NEARTO that was
probably expected, but what's happening now. They did stress this
it's different from twenty twenty two because of the economy

(09:21):
is now starting in a weaker place, We've got higher
levels of excess capacity. The inflation forecast might that's a
little bit scary. Q two four point two percent that
isssumans do by all drops below the US one hundred
by end of June.

Speaker 2 (09:36):
So I think they'll get that.

Speaker 14 (09:37):
So the markets are though a little bit concerned about
that four point two percent inflation forecast, but also the
fact that they referred to being vigilant about second round effects.
They really hammered this home with the statement that if
the conditions aren't met for ensuring that inflation comes back
from that four point two to the two percent, that

(10:00):
means that wage inflation, wage growth, core inflation has to
remain contained and inflation expectations have to remain anchored. If
they don't get that, then decisive and timely increases to
the OCR will be required. So that night we'd seen
interest rates before they went back up on the back
of that, and it pushed the New Zealand dollar even higher. Look,

(10:21):
the market is still pricing OCR hikes before the election,
but at least we've got But what I would say,
Mike is they're happy to wait, but ready to act.
Numbers please right, So one thousand, two hundred and thirteen
point rise in the Dow Jones.

Speaker 2 (10:38):
I've been waiting for days to say that.

Speaker 14 (10:41):
Two point six percent rise forty seven eight hundred and six,
the S and P five hundred, one hundred and sixty
nine points two point five six six seven eight six
the Mark, and the Nasdaq is up six hundred and
fifteen points twenty two thousand, six hundred and thirty four.
That's a two point eight percent rise. The FT one
hundred and two and a half percent as well, ten thousand,
six hundred and eight.

Speaker 2 (11:01):
Check this out.

Speaker 13 (11:02):
The nick A five point.

Speaker 14 (11:04):
Three nine percent lift on the day fifty six thousand,
three hundred and eight.

Speaker 2 (11:07):
That's two thousand, eight hundred and seventy eight points up.

Speaker 14 (11:10):
The Shanghai Composite game two points sixty nine percent three
nine nine five, the A six two hundred up over
two and a half percent eight ninety five one. As
I said, the NZX fifty one point four percent gain
one hundred and eighty four points thirteen thousand, two hundred
and fifty three Kiwi dollar point five eight two seven
against the US, point eight two sixty three against the Aussie,

(11:32):
point four nine nine two against the Euro, point four
to three four four pounds ninety two point three five
Japanese en gold is trading at four thousand, seven hundred
and forty dollars and as I pointed out, Brentkrud at
ninety four bucks. So we're in a better place than
we were.

Speaker 2 (11:49):
And praise the Lord for that. Andrew Geller, who's sure
and partners, we will see you tomorrow. By Strauss, we
love the denom top and bottom lines beaten, higher price,
strong growth and higher prices. They simply put their us
is up and people said, do I prepare? Am I
prepared to puy? Yes? Revenues up fourteen percent? This is intonationally,
this is Glovely. They're expecting sales rise is to continue
some way between five and a half and six and

(12:09):
a half percent. So we can't get enough. DNUM revenue
at one point seventy four billion, will take it all
day long. Caun't lead a good peer Gene six twenty
two at Newstalk Z.

Speaker 1 (12:17):
But the Mike asking Breakfast Full Show podcast on iHeartRadio
powered by News.

Speaker 13 (12:23):
Talks it be.

Speaker 2 (12:25):
This is what American victory sounds like.

Speaker 8 (12:27):
United States has achieved and exceeded those core military objectives
in just thirty eight days. The US military destroyed Iran's
defense industrial base, crushing the regime's ability to manufacture weapons
that they and their proxies used to maim and kill
Americans and terrorize the world. The Iranian Naval Navy was

(12:49):
completely annihilated, Iran's ability to fund and support its terrorist
proxies has been greatly reduced, and most importantly, Iran will
not be able to acquire nuclear weapon Then.

Speaker 15 (13:00):
Trending now with as Wales book in your flu vaccination Today.

Speaker 2 (13:05):
Now The Baby Ryan Dear creator Richard Gador's Beck writer
and Starr and his new one new One's called half Main.
Childhood friend Wright shows up at his MIT's wedding thirty
years later.

Speaker 16 (13:15):
That is hello, for those that don't know me, I'm
Ruben Pallister and I'm going to tell you about now Kennedy.
I remember the first time I met him.

Speaker 6 (13:29):
He was only a kid's.

Speaker 12 (13:30):
Moved into your room.

Speaker 17 (13:32):
No way, He's a psychle Are these guys bothering you?

Speaker 2 (13:35):
Why? Do you care?

Speaker 17 (13:37):
We're family now.

Speaker 6 (13:41):
Really, it's the best and worst thing.

Speaker 2 (13:46):
All at once.

Speaker 16 (13:50):
I didn't think, I see you again.

Speaker 2 (13:53):
Everything about you, the way you live your life, But
that doesn't stop me wanting every Wileser's that sounds exciting.
Jamie Bell's The Other Star. It's out on HBO and
HBO Max. April twenty third. Watched a couple of episodes
of Scrubs last night, And the funny thing about that
is they've remade Scrubs, and I sort of once I

(14:15):
started watching, I thought, I think I know about that.
But anyway, the nineteen year old came around and said, hey,
have you seen Scrubs? And we hadn't, And so it's
one of those under the radar type things. I don't know,
maybe if you're on social media. They've done a lot
of stuff with it. But first episode, I thought to myself, Yeah,
I think you've got to have seen Scrubs first time round.
Have you coming to it fresh? You'll be going, oh,
is this the thing? If you saw it first time

(14:36):
round and you loved it like I did and many
people did. First episode, you thought, ooh, could be a
bit woke, could be a bit modern. They might have
lost in Edge, but a couple of episodes and they're
only twenty minutes long each. Quite good. Well a bit
of escapism by the way, quick question, have you acted yet?
Just reading the hell yesterday for the cyclone? Have you
acted yet? More on this shortly for you your trusted home

(15:00):
for news, Sport, Entertainment, Opinion.

Speaker 1 (15:03):
And Mike the Mic asking Breakfast with Ranger of a
sport SV the Ultimate Performance SUV News togs Head V.

Speaker 2 (15:11):
There been Governor in an arm Mattie Paynes, part of
the super cars who are coming to the country, Tampo
and class back to back. So he's back on the
program with us after eight o'clock twenty three to seven
to Education, where the unions this morning are back for
another scrap with the government, this time over this new
smart assessment till basically they're claiming less than sixty percent
of schools have signed up. They don't like the look
of it, they don't like the pace of that. Eric
of Stanford is of course the Education Minister and as

(15:34):
well as good morning, good morning, make did you see
this coming or we got a problem here?

Speaker 9 (15:39):
Well?

Speaker 7 (15:40):
I saw the unions coming, of course I always do.
I mean this is what they do right. This is
a bumbling attempt at some kind of weird political hit
job by a union. You know, I've had to give
themselves a new name because no one takes the NCDII
seriously anymore. I mean, actually, we have quietly reached a
massive milestone in our first term that no other government
in history has managed to achieve, despite the Education Review

(16:02):
Office asking for it for years, a nationwide consistent monitoring
of student progress and reading, writing and maths twice a
year using a cutting edge international tool with New Zealand content,
so that we can report to parents and tell them
how their kids are doing.

Speaker 6 (16:16):
It's huge.

Speaker 2 (16:16):
So it's sixty percent or not.

Speaker 7 (16:18):
Well, that's not the number, Mike. There are three hundred
and sixty thousand students in year three to eight who
are required to be assessed twice a year in reading,
writing and maths, and in nine working days, two hundred
and fifty thousand students were signed up into this new
smart tool that we've acquired, and another number that the

(16:39):
union didn't mention or fudged. There are actually three assessment
tools that schools can choose from. There's pat Astol and
the smart tool, so spread evenly it's about one hundred
and twenty thousand per tool, but Smart got two hundred
and fifty nine days. That is a ringing endorsement from
a sector who know the importance of assessment to raising achievement.

Speaker 6 (17:02):
I mean, it's a huge milestone.

Speaker 2 (17:03):
Does this union actually represent teachers or not?

Speaker 7 (17:09):
I don't think that they do. I think look a
really embarrassing part of their claim that they said, you know,
there was a number of principles who've signed up for
this tool without any intention of using it. I mean,
what's that number? They should tell us a number?

Speaker 9 (17:23):
Is it?

Speaker 2 (17:24):
One?

Speaker 6 (17:24):
One's a number.

Speaker 7 (17:25):
Apart from the fact, I absolutely refuse to believe that
any hard working principle in the last two weeks of term,
when they're so overwhelmed and so busy, that they would
take their time or a staff member's time to upload
all of their student data out of enroll and into
the new smart tool and then select which assessments are
going to do it which level, take all of that time,

(17:47):
essentially faking student enrollments to prove some kind of weird
political point when they're so busy. I've got more respect
for our principles and our educators than to believe that
the Union may have a very dim view of principles.

Speaker 6 (18:00):
But I do not share that.

Speaker 2 (18:01):
Is it the union or is it this Liam Rutherford
guys he particularly a problem? Or does he represent the
whole union view of the world.

Speaker 7 (18:08):
Oh lo, here is the Union. I mean he has
the lead negotiator, so they're one and the same. I
mean it's the Union and drag rights. But as I
said earlier, they don't have any respect anymore, so they've
got to use a new name in a new vehicle.
But really, as I said, this is an embarrassing, bumbling
attempt when actually we should be focusing on parents and students.
The number that I care about is three hundred and
sixty thousand primary school students, and there's seven hundred and

(18:30):
twenty thousand parents who are going to be receiving high
quality data showing where their how their kids are tracking
in the basics, so that they don't fall behind without
parents knowing about it. You often hear parents going, oh
my gosh, my children have got to high school. They
don't know their timestables, they don't know their basic facts,
they don't have instant recall of those really important facts.
To be able to solve problems, and I never knew.

(18:51):
Now they will know.

Speaker 6 (18:53):
Because we will be reporting to them with this new tool.

Speaker 2 (18:55):
Good quick word on social media if you wouldn't mind,
I know that grease is the latest to join a line.
Are you on to Are we going to do actually
going to do anything on this or do we not
believe that it's working.

Speaker 7 (19:05):
No, I've got papers that are going through cabinet at
the moment, and I am a huge believer that we
need to change the behavior of.

Speaker 6 (19:11):
The social media companies.

Speaker 7 (19:12):
The ban is the the age restriction is only a
very small part of it.

Speaker 6 (19:17):
It's not the silver bullet.

Speaker 7 (19:18):
The silver bullet, in my opinion, is all countries joining
up with very similar regulatory systems to say to social
media companies, you need to change your behavior. You need
to be reporting on what are the harms and how
are you mitigating them. That's what we are proposing and
that's what we will be introducing before the term is up.

Speaker 2 (19:40):
Good to catch up, Erica Stanford, who's the education industry?
I reference Greece this morning there as of January next year,
under fifteen's are out. But I also what drove that
was an article there was a newsroom the other day
were apparently are looking now to Europe more than we
are looking to Australia, because Australia started all this. But
as I tried to explain on the program a number
of times, deeply flawed what Australia was doing. It was

(20:01):
all for headline grabs and clickbait. It doesn't work. It
isn't working, It hasn't worked, and what's the point of
putting in law that doesn't work. So presumably we'll get
something a little bit better out of Europe by the
time we get around to actually doing it.

Speaker 1 (20:13):
Nineteen two The Mic Hosking Breakfast Full Show podcast on
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Speaker 2 (20:20):
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(21:23):
one Jantinetti morning. Mike Erica is very impressive. Mike Erica
is hiad and shoulders above all the other New Zealand MPs.
How good is she? Mike? And can I just ask
this this ligaanm Rutherford guy, I mean if we never
hear from him again? And the reference to the changing
the name the NZDIA whatever they were, they're now called
our Tierrower Education or something or other. I put the
press release in the bin. But who would you back?
Would you back a unionist or a minister of education

(21:45):
like Erica huh?

Speaker 12 (21:46):
Six forty five International correspondence with ENSI Eye Insurance Peace
of Mind for New Zealand Business McKenna in.

Speaker 2 (21:53):
A spring light rhyme, good morning to you, Good morning
lay Now this Lebanon thing that we got a little
bit sticky this morning, where are we at with you guys?

Speaker 18 (22:02):
Well, I mean, it was interesting that the first part
of the day we saw a joint statement by Prime
Minister Georgia Maloney and the other EU leaders welcoming the
ceasefire that now looks, of course, very shaky between the
US and Iran. Late today the same Prime minister issued
a statement strongly condemning an incident in southern Lebanon where
an Italian convoy of UN peacekeepers they're there as part

(22:26):
of the UN clearly identifiableor was fired upon by the
Israeli army. So she was not happy about that, and
the Foreign Minister Antonio Taiani has summoned Israel's ambassador to
discuss what happened.

Speaker 2 (22:38):
Okay, did she say, Maloney say anything when Trump went
ballistic yesterday and civilizations ending and stuff like that, lot
of leaders around the world was sort of aghast. Did
she have anything to say at all?

Speaker 18 (22:49):
Look, I think she's putten pretty cautious about what she
wants to say about it.

Speaker 6 (22:54):
And yeah, I mean this statement was.

Speaker 18 (22:57):
Really putting herself in there with the other leaders and
strongly encouraging progress towards some sort of settlement, calling upon
all sides to implement the ceasefire and so on. But
I think she's been very cautious about saying anything terribly critical.

Speaker 2 (23:11):
And is Italy on board with this windfall tax? Soo so?
And how does a windfall tax work with the oil company?
So you're making a lot of money, now you get
tax ex percent when you're not making money, then what happens?
It just stops.

Speaker 18 (23:23):
Yeah, I know, I mean it sounds a bit vague
to me. But Italy did join four other EU countries Germany, Spain,
Austria and Portugal asking for a windfall tax on the
profits of these energy companies. That would of course affect
Italian energy companies that are very close to the government,
So I'm not sure that that's going to come into
any kind of fruition.

Speaker 2 (23:44):
No, indeed not she was. It was a surprise, wasn't it.
She went to Saudi Arabia. I know that star is
there today, but she went the other day to Saudi
Arabia and nobody see what was the point of that,
in the sense that no one announced it.

Speaker 18 (23:56):
Yeah, well, I think part of it was to take
attention away from her shaky situation after the referendum and
to try and play the role of the stateswoman again.
But she did fly to Saudi Arabia on Friday, then
Kata and the UAE for urgent talks on energy that's
still a major issue for Italy, shoring up that supply

(24:17):
of oil and gas.

Speaker 2 (24:19):
Did you get anything out of it? Materially pretty vague.

Speaker 18 (24:22):
I'd say looked good standing next to the leaders and
shaking hands, mainly showing support for the golf partners, but
it was all about protecting Italy's own energy supplies.

Speaker 2 (24:34):
Interesting, Hey, George's intown? Does he come around to stay
at your place when he rolls into the city from
Lake Cano. Sadly he's not in Rome.

Speaker 18 (24:43):
He showed up at an event in Cuneo, up near Turin,
up in the north of Italy, part of his foundation,
talking to young students, trying to encourage them about all
sorts of opportunities in life. But he did manage to
say that he was a little ashamed to be an
American and wasn't too proud of what Donald Trump was
doing these days.

Speaker 2 (25:02):
No kidding, these restaurant regulations in Rome, So what's the problem.
You've just spilled out into the foot path and you're
out of control and the whole things are shambles.

Speaker 18 (25:11):
Well, anyone coming to Rome would see just how much
these tables, the outside tables are mushrooming everywhere, and that's
been happening since COVID ended.

Speaker 6 (25:20):
Now we've got all sorts of chaos.

Speaker 18 (25:22):
And I was just out on the street a short
time ago and there are so many tourists smike out there.
You can hardly walk down the street. And the Rome
here says that we had more than a million overnight days,
around five hundred thousand people came to Rome for Easter.

Speaker 2 (25:37):
Wow.

Speaker 18 (25:37):
But this restaurant overhaul, is it really going to make
a difference, Will it really be policed?

Speaker 6 (25:41):
I'm not so sure.

Speaker 2 (25:42):
About that. So the tourism thing just endlessly fascinates me
post COVID and of course with the last couple of
weeks in this war and stuff. So you would look
at the tourism sector in Italy and you'd say, there's
no fall off. People are prepared to pay through the
nosebery tickets. Rome is as busy as it's ever been,
if not more so.

Speaker 18 (26:00):
Yeah, I mean, I think it's just so accessible for
people coming in from other parts of Europe. Hearing a
lot of different languages on the streets. Still a lot
of Americans too, by the way, the weather's beautiful, around
twenty to twenty five degrees, and it's still relatively cheap
compared to other European cities once.

Speaker 6 (26:16):
You get here.

Speaker 2 (26:16):
Yeah, that American dollar helps, I suppose, isn't it, Joe.
Nice to see you have a good time seeing exist
day Germany. By the way, just before we leave that
particular part of the world, you know, we were telling
Catherine telling us tuesday about this bizarre thing that they had.
If you were a man of under forty five and
you were leaving the country for a sustained period of time,
you needed to get clearance because the Germans are trying

(26:37):
to build up their military presence, and you might be
called up at any given moment. That wasn't that. It
was part of the Military Service Modernization Act came into
force at the beginning of January. Seemingly no one read
the fine print, and then finally a newspaper got on
to it, told the world and everyone went what so anyway,
As a result of that overnight, the Defense Minister suspended it.
So it was on till it's off nine away from seven.

Speaker 1 (27:00):
For the Mike Cosking Breakfast with Bailey's Real Estate news talks.

Speaker 13 (27:04):
There'd be next.

Speaker 2 (27:04):
Couple of days will tell the full story, I guess,
but a lot of them said. I mentioned a couple
of airlines in America. As things sort of get sorted
out at the other end of this and some sort
of normality returns around the world in all sorts of
different areas, you wonder how many decisions that are being
made will be regretted. I didn't realize this, but the
fuel cost thing in Australia, I think it's broadly accepted
that Australia's made a much worse job of it than

(27:26):
we have in terms of government instruction, but the Workplace
Minister yesterday, woman called Amanda, issued a draft determination that
basically trucks and small trucking firms shouldn't have to pay
for the increased cost of cartage. So if prices go

(27:48):
up beyond a contracted price, the company sending the goods
would have to cover the cost, as opposed to a
small truck and logistics operator. So you've got a deal
until you haven't got a deal until the government steps
in to tell you your deal is no longer a deal.
I mean, what sort of mental economic management is that?
How do you run a business when you think you've

(28:10):
got an arrangement but suddenly elbow and Cambri goes, no,
We're going to do it differently. How do you run
an economy like that? Five minutes away from seven polly
In and the Ouse.

Speaker 1 (28:21):
It's the fizz with business fiber take your business productivity
to the next level.

Speaker 2 (28:26):
Now, the market, as we've alluded to this morning with Andrew,
is so hot right now. So they've cracked the Trump routine.
Here here's how it works with the Magnificent seven. These
are all your big players, your big tech companies. X
escalation a war sparks market stress pressure builds and de
escalation a ceespire ultimately drives a sharp rebound in risk assets.

(28:46):
No kidding. So tech is often the worst hit when
the market stress starts and the rebound is on this morning.
So you've got your metare, you've got your amazons, you
got your alphabets and videos and stuff. They're leading the
way to magnificent seven. Metas up nine percent, So you
just imagine what nine percent of metas share prices. Chip
makers are semiconductors leading the way in Taiwan, they've beig
on the semiconductors. They're up six points or six percent.

(29:08):
Intel's up nine on the back of the truth. So
it's all you know, it's down till it's up. It's
up till it's down. And that's why they always say
when it comes to things like four oh one ks
and key we says, you ride these things out. You
don't panic, you don't freak out and go buy an ev.
You just you hold the course because it will eventually
come right. It always does. But for now, some choppy

(29:30):
water is still to navigate. I mean, how quickly does
it come right? So when the Reserve Bank yesterday goes
four point two percent for the Q two period. Well, one,
do they know that or are they guessing that two's
four point two? Can we handle it? Does it drop
down quickly out the other side? What's it mean for
the so called recovery? How much growth has actually lost?
So fascinating display yesterday. I'm not sure you're ware of

(29:52):
it normally. On what they did yesterday, which is a review,
not a statement, they don't talk publicly, but they did
talk publicly yesterday and that was insightful. So Anna Breman,
the Reserve Bank Governor. After seven thirty, but in a
couple of moments, the Finance Minister Nikola willis for.

Speaker 1 (30:07):
You, the newsmakers and the personalities, the big names talk
to Mike the Mic asking breakfast with Bailey's real estate
altogether better across residential, commercial and rural news.

Speaker 2 (30:20):
Togs Head been falling seven past seven, so big day
for New Zealand in because the ceasefire kicked in and
the Reserve Bank gave their take on where we're at.
Oil's down, of course, cash right unmoved the rb DOC
Inflation now peaking at four point two for Q two,
but it was a review, not a statement, so forecasts
some forecasts were missing. Nikola Willis, Finance Minister, back with us.
Good morning, good morning. I tell you what the saner
breman I like the cut of a jib. What do

(30:41):
you say?

Speaker 19 (30:42):
She's very good at her job. We've made a good
appointment there. She communicates clearly, succinctly. She knows what she's
talking about.

Speaker 2 (30:50):
She is slightly hawkish. I thought yesterday she's prepared to
see through some stuff, and I think that's wise, isn't it.

Speaker 19 (30:56):
Well, Look, I think central banks around the world learned
some lessons during COVID, and many of them did look
through initial shocks, but then didn't respond fast enough when
inflation became more embedded into expectations and core inflation and
inflation hung around for a long time, and in New

(31:17):
Zealand's case, we were thirty three months outside our target band.
That's a long time. That creates a cost of living crisis.
So I wouldn't be surprised if the central bank here
was reflecting on all of that.

Speaker 2 (31:28):
I'm optimistic about the ceasefire. I think it'll hold ish
and things will ish come right. Therefore, the secondary inflationary
issues that she may or may not be worried about
may not come to pass.

Speaker 19 (31:40):
What's your read, Well, my read is pretty much exactly
what you're saying, which is this all depends on what
happens in the Middle East. And if that conflict, that
ceasefire does get sustained and the straight up hor moves
opens and ships are moving fast, then the inflationture looks

(32:00):
a lot better. But there's a lot of ifs there.
And one of the things that I'm particularly conscious of
is even when the straight reopens, you've still had disruption
to the energy market in a big way. That's going
to take a little while to unwind. There's been destruction
of energy assets throughout the Middle East, and so there
will be some residual and lingering effects. But with the

(32:21):
straight open, everything is a heck of a lot better
than the opposite.

Speaker 2 (32:26):
So let's assume the positive and this was a six
week less than blip and it will come right incoming. Right.
Are you seeing yet worrying signs that people have flipped
on that cost to the consumer as fast as they
possibly could, and may may may have been able to
hold their powder a little bit longer than they did have.
But we've got trouble here or not.

Speaker 19 (32:45):
Well, Look it's a mixed picture. I'm hearing some different
things from businesses and consumers. On the one hand, you
are seeing that many firms have already put a fuel
adjustment factor on their goods or their services, and that
factor has been charged week not monthly, so they've been
increasing that a lot. Some businesses have said to us, look,
we actually think some of the companies are taking the

(33:07):
mickey a bit. They've passed on so much so quickly.
Then on the other hand, I've heard from some businesses
who are saying, look, we just can't pass on the
cost because we cannot recover that from our customers or
they will stop being our customers. So it is a
mixed picture, and that's where you've just got to see
the data to know what's really going on.

Speaker 2 (33:26):
I know you're not going to beg Australia, but there
was a poll out yesterday eighty three percent of Australians
love taking that tax off the petrol, even though they're broke,
even though they've got a trillion dollars worth of debt,
even though it's economically irresponsible. When you do it, they
love it. The pressure must have been on you to
do something more than you've done.

Speaker 19 (33:43):
Tell you what they don't love, Mike, and that's when
you put it back on again. And that's why Anthony
Albanesi and Jim Chalmers.

Speaker 6 (33:50):
Will have to do.

Speaker 19 (33:51):
It's what they've said they'll do, and that will both
be unpopular. At the time Chris Hopkins went through it,
I think he's even reflected that, you know, the last
government tries, I had to put it on for three months.
It ended up being fifteen months, I think, and I
think he reflected at the time that putting it back
on was not easy because of course it is. It
also hurts people, but it also leads to a little

(34:13):
blippin inflation as well. So to me it's yes, of course,
short term gain, but you never avoid the longer term pain.

Speaker 2 (34:20):
No, you do not nice to talk with. Nichola Willis
the Finance Minister. Doctor Anna Bremen is with us after
seven thirty it's eleven pass. Like so many Middle East conflicts,
of course, it was all on till it wasn't you
cease fire underway two weeks initially, but it won't be
the end of it at that point of course. Doctor
Matthew Schmidt is the Director of International Affairs and national
security expert at New Haven University is back with us.
Good morning to you. Good morning. So it started regime change,

(34:42):
ended up with a body of water that no one
saw coming. Where do you reckon it goes? Now? I
think we're in a holding pattern.

Speaker 20 (34:49):
This is a classic sort of negotiate to pause install.
The real question here is what is Iran holding back?

Speaker 2 (34:57):
Right?

Speaker 20 (34:58):
Can they restart their threat over this trade of horror
moves six weeks from now, two weeks from now, right,
six months from now?

Speaker 2 (35:05):
Where does the where do the Gulf Stites fit into this?
This is all about America the Iran, but the Gulf
Sites make a living out of this bit of water
way to base fit.

Speaker 20 (35:15):
They are desperate to have the states open. It's economically
vital to them. And they're also desperate to have Iranian
you know, drones and missiles under control because they're being
fired directly at their their oil and gas facilities, which
are going to cost hundreds of billions of dollars if
they are taken offline to restart. And so there's a

(35:36):
huge economic motivation here to end the war.

Speaker 2 (35:40):
Indeed, there is how much white do you give the
theory that Iran's basically exhausted America desperately needed an off
rent because there were too many coal cops involved. In
other words, they both happy business Iburn. They will sort
of play out in peetooks to some degree.

Speaker 20 (35:55):
I'm skeptical, and I'll tell you why. That's why you
have you on the show. I think Iran is actually
gaining leverage out of this, that they are able to
show that they are in control and can close and
open the strait their will not according to us, will
or anybody else's in the region. And we haven't seen

(36:15):
that be proven to be untrue yet. And so what
happens in two weeks is really the question. Will Iran
flex their muscles and say we can close the straight
down again, or will Iran say that's fine, we'll leave
it open, but we control what shifts come through. Or
will Iron say again in six months when something else changes,
that they decide to flex their muscles and close the
straights down, so their hands is still on the tiller

(36:38):
as it were.

Speaker 2 (36:38):
What about the Ibraham colds and you spread the love
and you get a bit of revenue and you split
it alive of the region. It's the Golden eyedes trump
Woodside sit. Is there any possibility of.

Speaker 20 (36:47):
That, Yes, but that doesn't necessarily change the calculus for
the regime in Tehran. I think the regime in Tehran
is weakened. I think that they're not likely to last
the long term, but the midterm can be a long time.
It can be you know, a decade or a couple
of decades that they retain control. That like, the calculus

(37:09):
is very difficult here because Iran only needs some small
subset of drones or missiles or speedboats right or artillery
on shore to be able to shut that straight down.

Speaker 2 (37:22):
And we would have to be able to take out
all of it.

Speaker 20 (37:25):
Right in order to guarantee that those shifts can go through.
And all Iron has to do is raise the insurance cost.
If it makes Lloyd's of London increase the cost of
put tankers through that straits, We're going to feel it
at the gas pump hell.

Speaker 2 (37:38):
Politically damaged? Is Trump? Do you think out of this?

Speaker 20 (37:42):
I think this was a huge political mistake for the administration.
I'm a farm kid from the central US, and right
now this month, you have farmers who are putting on
fertilizer for crops wheat that's going to be harvested in July,
and those prices are up almost thirty I think thirty
eight percent when I last looked at it. And that's

(38:05):
not going away. And that's Trump's political base, and so
people on his own party are deeply worried that this
is locked in a really bad outcome for the November
midterms and not surprising.

Speaker 2 (38:16):
All right, Matthew, appreciate your update. Doctor Matthew Schmidt, once
again Director of International Affairs National Security at YOUW Haven University.
We've enjoyed as expertise over the last six weeks fifteen past.

Speaker 1 (38:27):
The like Asking Breakfast Full Show podcast on iHeartRadio, powered
by News.

Speaker 2 (38:32):
Talks at B Supercars, Taupo christ Churched back to back,
very exciting, many pains back in the countries with us
after right seventeen past seven. Now I've got some depressing
new drug stats for you. There's something wrong with us
in this country. More drugs were seized at Auckland Airport
in the first four months of last year than all
airports combined across twenty twenty four. Can you believe that's
so the first week's nine weeks of this year, we've

(38:53):
got so far more than twelve tons of cocaine in
the Pacific A line. So Steve Simon is the chair
of the Ministerial Advisory Group for Organized Crime. Back with
there's Steve, morning to you.

Speaker 21 (39:02):
Good morning again.

Speaker 2 (39:03):
What does that Auckland thing mean? Does that mean security
is super hot and where yes, there's more of it
but we're grabbing it all or we just don't know, But.

Speaker 21 (39:12):
At both it means that it's a vulnerable port because
you've got so much going through it, and clearly it's
seen as a target for organized crime. And of course
we've had this problem with baggage handlers, which the authorities
are trying to work on, but even once to deal
with that, they'll find organized crime will find other ways

(39:32):
to get it through.

Speaker 2 (39:33):
Are they literally flooding the market because we're suckers and
we pay so much for it, so if they send
in ten tons, eight gets grab they get too through
it a profit margin they're laughing at.

Speaker 21 (39:43):
Yes right looking at stockpiling. So what they're doing is
getting enough drugs so that if there is any interruption
to supply, they can still control the markets, still control price.

Speaker 2 (39:56):
What's your sense of this, Are we in any way
shape perform on top of it or not.

Speaker 21 (40:04):
And we're certainly doing some great work, you know what,
the police and customs are doing. The effort they put
to stop that quantity of drugs is really impressive. But
we just on the same position in terms of not
cracking the back of it. We're not getting in front
of organized crime. And as our Ministry Advisory Group suggested

(40:25):
that the only way you can do that is having
a truly coordinated effort by pulling up together all the
government agencies to work together.

Speaker 2 (40:32):
And is the specific thing a weak link or not.

Speaker 21 (40:35):
Yes, Geographically they're an incredibly vulnerable position. We've got drugs
coming from South America, North America, crossed down through the Pacific,
targeted towards Australia and New Zealand, and sadly that's had
very catastrophic effects for the Pacific nations.

Speaker 2 (40:53):
All right, Steve listen, good to catch up. I mean,
you're a nice guy to just keep bringing us the
bad news every time, Steve Simon, who's the chair of
the Ministerial Advisory Group for Organized Crime. So yes, owner Brahman,
I thought it was fascinating some thoughts on that in
just a couple of moments and spiting questions. Also out
of the war for you next seven to twenty.

Speaker 1 (41:10):
The mic Asking Breakfast Full Show podcast on iHeartRadio, how
it by News talks Eppy.

Speaker 2 (41:18):
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So get your business running on the business fiber paskingee four.

(42:29):
Do you think we will learn some lessons or change
our mind now that the war is essentially over? Do
we need to be more oil independent or overall? Is
the way we do it? For good reason? It is
cheaper to buy a refined product. Do we need to
seek out new markets for products that have previously been
brought blindly through this thing called the strait? You know,
your plastics, gases, stuff like that. Seeing Canada, the left

(42:52):
leaners are in a lather at the moment. The NDP,
the new Democrats, they've got a new leader, very green,
very pro climate change. He's in trouble because as party leader,
and places like Alberta and Saskatchewan, they're riding the oil wave.
At the moment, Alberta's deficit has been literally wiped out
as oil money rolls in in a way they never forecast.
So you see, you can be a lefty but still
understand the economic reality of not necessity of fossil fuels.

(43:14):
You may not like them, but they work and they're needed,
and they pay the bills. See here's surely, if we've
learned nothing else, it's just how dependent we are still
on that, this stuff that we allegedly hate, that we
can't get rid of fast enough. Thought we were living
without power, fortunately for us is renewable. Broadly, that's good.
But cars, very quickly was determined are no such thing.

(43:37):
And more importantly, nothing that carried anything was an ev. Trucks, cranes, diggers.
Industry generally is a fossil fuel game, and it's not changing.
Would we not be better to accept that and get
on with it rather than wrestling clearly hopelessly with an
ideology that when push came to shof got found wanting badly.
Quote of the week for me came from plastics New Zealand.

(43:59):
Plastics are in everything, she said. Whoops thought getting rid
of the straws and the supermarket bags? Was it small
problem though? With the down pipes, pipes in general, not
just through the strait, but plastic I mean, are we
making pipes out of paper as well? Are we where
are the renewable pipes? So how about we accept that
as well. Plastic is real. It isn't going anywhere. Covid

(44:21):
Seas sort of gave us a taste of this when
we closed the place down, a mission started dropping. But
the war has been a better wake up call. I
think our actions don't match our words. The conversation has
been hijacked by zealots. We are doing our bit for
climate and that's good, but we are not getting rid
of plastic, and we are not moving on from oil.
We are not giving up the stuff that makes the

(44:42):
world go round in life actually work. In these past
five and a bit weeks, reality has had its mic
drop moment Mosking. The Iran war was never about regime change.
It was to stop the missile expansion so they could
not develop a nuclear weapon. That's technically not true because
one of the first things Trump said was you'll be
able to go grab your country. It will be freely

(45:03):
available to you. And I do remember asking on the
program it is what were they going to grab it with?
And then there was the thing that the old radicals
over the border were being armed by the CIA but
that clearly came to nothing. Mike is a farmer. Our
costs are immediately rising. We just put in our maize
sigloge and that went up one and a half cents
a kilos another five and a half grand with zero

(45:24):
ability to recoup that, and that's going to be across
the board. So extrapolate that out. Yeah, but wasn't that necessary.
I was told there was enough fertilizer in the country
to last the season. So why price is going up
when you see what I'm saying, or you're doing the
past thing on a replacement cost anyway, Reserve Bank Governor, next.

Speaker 15 (45:42):
Credible compelling the breakfast show you count missed.

Speaker 1 (45:45):
It's the Mic Hosking Breakfast with Vida, Retirement Communities, Life
Your Way News, Togstead, be.

Speaker 2 (45:52):
Border, the Mattie Payin Catch Up, Penright Racing, Grove Racing
of courser In Tapo and christ due for the double
header for the supercars coming to the country first time.
The SUPs a head of double header and they're on
a bit of a role at the moment. Anyway, that's
still to come back here at twenty three minutes away
from the Reserve Bank and their task of working out
what sort of shape the joint is and then where
we're heading in these choppy, turbulent times. So cash rate

(46:13):
on hold that that wasn't really the news. Of course,
inflation and the June courter looks to be peaking at
four point two and that dense growth. Reserve Bank Governor
doctor Anna Breman is with us, A very good morning
to you.

Speaker 9 (46:23):
Good morning.

Speaker 2 (46:24):
Now, can I congratulate you, first of all on what
you did yesterday the press conference. You guys don't normally
front on this review via statement. Did you drive that?
Is that part of your I need to be more
open and public.

Speaker 9 (46:39):
Yes, but everyone agreed on it. So the whole Monetary
Policy Committee was fine with having a press conference, and
we're going to do that at every meeting now, not
just when we have a Monetary policy's statement, but also
when we do the monetary policy reviews.

Speaker 2 (46:52):
Good Is that normal internationally? From your experience, it's just
I've always thought it was weird that we didn't.

Speaker 9 (47:00):
So a lot of countries do that, but not all countries,
so it differs a little bit.

Speaker 2 (47:05):
Okay, some of the journalists, I thought, interestingly didn't seem
to understand what a review was versus a statement, which
does lead our thought to the broader question because some
of the things in what you did yesterday aren't contained
in terms of forecasts. Could you should you be doing
more to keep us more informed with more information.

Speaker 9 (47:26):
Well, it is what we try to do. Even when
we have what we call the reviews, we don't have
a full forecast because we have less data to go on,
but we do try to describe the developments and point
to recent data and what that means. So we did
that yesterday and did add some numbers and on inflation
because so much is happening in that area. So we

(47:47):
did do a preliminary forecast, and then the next time
we'll do the full forecast because then we have much
more information to go on.

Speaker 2 (47:55):
If this ceasefire is contained, if we take the optimistic
view and ultimately has turned out to be a six
week ish thing for the world, how different do you
think the world looks? In my Phoenix meeting.

Speaker 9 (48:09):
I still think the world looks different. I mean, this
is a severe supply disruption. It's not just oil, it's shipping.
You know, New Zealand gets not the exporters need the
shipping coming to be able to get their goods out.
We need it for the imports, of course, so we
will see some disruption lingering even if this hopefully is
resolved in the near term. But it does mean that,

(48:32):
you know, the effects on inflation would be less severe
if it gets resolved now, and that would be very
welcome of course.

Speaker 2 (48:39):
Of course, and give them that answer. How much hard
data do you actually have as a central bank on
what's been damaged, what doesn't move quite as freely as
it used to, how slow things will be versus how
much is just perception?

Speaker 9 (48:53):
Well, I think, you know, I've been traveling to meet
businesses around the country and so does my staff, and
we talk to other people who we've looked at all
the most recent surveys. I think that there is a
concerted effort now in New Zealand to understand this because
we know how important it is to us. But then
we have to collect it and you know, it's not perfect,

(49:16):
but we are getting information and people are really you know,
they're really trying to share because they also understand that
it's important for everyone to have good data right now.

Speaker 2 (49:25):
What's your read on the psychology of the country, the
business consumer confidence? There was some consumer confidence data as well.
Basically it fell off, a cliff war started, we freaked out.
Can it potentially I mean, can it potentially bounce back
as quickly or not?

Speaker 12 (49:41):
Well?

Speaker 9 (49:42):
I understand the psychology of this. You know, we had
three years of pretty weak gross some corporated done well,
some had really been struggling, and you get hit by this.
So of course people feel really bad because it's a
severe shock. So I do understand that. I do think
we can bounce back pretty quickly if we see that
there's this result and you see shipping coming working better again,

(50:05):
and the supply changes start to work. But I do
think people will also be a bit cautious in terms
of exactly how the plan going forward. You might want
a bit more resilience in terms of your supply change, etc.
Because unfortunately it's a big hit.

Speaker 2 (50:20):
It is the inflation spike that you see coming. If
once again this model works and things are broadly speaking
getting back to normal, does it disappear as quickly.

Speaker 9 (50:30):
Well, I think that we will see some effects staying
on for a while, just because it's not only oil,
it's some of the supply change. They get hurt by this.
But I do think we can see a nice spike
and then inflation falling again. But we will have to
follow all the data and then continuously update those kinds
of forecasts. But I do think that we can see

(50:53):
a nice fall down in inflation if we see that
this sees fire holes. And as you know, it's a
very complex world right now. Right now.

Speaker 2 (51:01):
What fascinates me about the surveys you do in the
businesses you talk to, and you talk to this a
little bit yesterday, this price setting stuff. You know, who's
going to pass it on, who can't pass it on?
Do you believe them because people say a lot of
stuff that they don't do.

Speaker 9 (51:15):
Yeah. Yeah, it's an extremely good question, actually, something that
you have to consider it all times, because you know,
of course, some people will say, oh, we'll hike prices,
and then they realize we can't because our customers just
won't buy anything. And others will say, oh, no, we're
being cautious, and then we will still try to high
prices depending on you know, their situations and the customers,

(51:37):
et cetera. So I think it's important to not only
look at survey data. You have to see, you know,
the hard data as well, as we call it. So
We'll be looking at the CPI numbers very carefully, and
we get some partial CPAN numbers when we get not
all the consumption basket as we call it, we get
half of it every month, and we look very carefully
at those numbers.

Speaker 2 (51:57):
What I've got from the retail banks so far, roughly,
you didn't come out with us yesterday Q two. They
see a drop in GDP, it goes backwards for a while,
but they still come out with something like one point
four for the year. Does that feel about right to you.

Speaker 9 (52:14):
I'm going to be a little bit cautious, given that
we haven't done a full forecast for the full year yet,
but I do expect to see growth this year still,
because what we saw in January and February was actually
the growth was picking up in the high frequency data,
so it was looking pretty good. And then, as you say, March,
people starting being worried, but it was a little bit

(52:34):
business as usual. I think April is going to look
a bit worse because then you stop some of the
activities you were planning. But again, if we see the
sea ceas fire hoolding, if we see the fuel prices
coming down, I think businesses will pick up and we
can see some good numbers this year.

Speaker 2 (52:51):
Good you know the replan, Sure, yeah. Do you have
a view on the government's role in spending. I mean
they've been extreme compared to many government around the they've
been extremely limited in what the largest if you like,
does that eventually play well for us?

Speaker 9 (53:07):
Well, you know, what we've seen after COVID is that
the recommendations have been to do timely and targeted measures
and focus on the most vulnerable parts of the population.
That's what we've seen now and from our perspective, we
don't expect that to add to inflation in this environment.
Then what happens later on, that's a decision for them.

(53:29):
Of course.

Speaker 2 (53:30):
Nice to talk to you as always, doctor Enner Roman.
Who is the Reserve Bank? Government?

Speaker 13 (53:34):
This one just a.

Speaker 2 (53:35):
Couple of things, just to reiterate this was new yesterday
they held a press conference. They should hold a press
conference and you heard they will do from here on
and every time the Reserve Bank speaks, they should hold
a press conference. Why because we're better informed, because it's live,
it's streaming. Otherwise you're just relying on journalists too maybe
or maybe not pick out bits that maybe maybe not
relevant And you won't truly get to make up your

(53:55):
own mind. And the reason I say that is it
became very clear to me yesterday fortunately, that there were
journalists in that press conference it was done largely via
zoom that didn't understand the difference of what they were
seeing between at an update and a statement, a review
in a statement, and they were asking questions of the
Reserve Bank governor that they shouldn't have been asking because

(54:16):
there wasn't the data there, because that's not what they
put out on the day. Now, that worries me that
there are journalists who allegedly cover the Reserve Bank and
don't understand how it works. Also worrying me yesterday but
also amusing me, were the journalists who didn't understand how
to use zoom. And I would have thought COVID once
and for all well and truly taught us how to

(54:38):
use zoom. But the opening question, I can't remember who
it was, and I don't want to embarrass them, but
they went to the first person. The first person was
Brian Brian from Reuter's Silence, Hello, Hello, can you hear me?
And I'm thinking, come on, people are watching this from
around the world, and that's before you got to poor
old Bernard Hickey. Bernard Hickey, Bernard your question, silence, Bernard,

(55:01):
You're on mute. And so it went. I mean, fourteen
away from eight.

Speaker 1 (55:05):
Come the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show podcast on iHeartRadio
powered by News Talks at.

Speaker 2 (55:12):
Be right eleven away from eight. I don't know if
you're aware of it. You should be, because the digital
media has gone mental on it over the past week.
As far as I can work out, we are, of
course in for a cyclone this coming Sunday. Whether it's
actually a cyclone on Sunday by the time it gets
out of the tropics and into this particular part of
the world is still yet to be determined. In fact,
the entire exercise, as far as I can work out,

(55:34):
is still yet to be determined. In other words, they
still don't know where it's going to land, and so
they then placed the entire North Island under a watch yesterday,
which quite rightly is Brian Mercer from the Forecasting Service
said yesterday, I don't think we've done that before. No,
you haven't, and that's because we've become this lily livid, spineless,
ballless society in which we fester on becoming scared and

(55:59):
angsty days in advance of something that may or may
not happen. Now, if there's a cyclone on Sunday, no problem.
When you know when it's arriving and in what ferocity,
please let us know. That's what your service is and
the media go here now. Do not spend the next
several days building up to something that you don't know
what it is at the moment quote unquote, it's too

(56:23):
soon to say. Various models are still showing different tracks. Cool,
then don't say anything. When your model says what it
is and where it is and when it is and
whide is and how it is, let us know in
the meantime. Shut up. Mercer said, although different tracks were
being shown and modeling, it was very you cannot make

(56:45):
this up. I quote once again, it is very likely
somewhere in the North Ireland would get strong winds in
heavy rain. That's a specialist who knows nothing at this
particular point in time. Therefore, why is he in the
news nine away from eight.

Speaker 1 (57:04):
The Mike Hosking Breakfast with a Vita Retirement Communities news
dogs head been.

Speaker 2 (57:09):
One I'm reading in the hera when it says yesterday
Wednesday for something that might be coming Sunday. When that says,
act now, literally, what do you want me to do?
I mean literally, what do you want me to do
on Wednesday? To act now? Now, they might say clear
the gutters? So is that everyone in the North Island?
You want to clear the gutters? Everyone in the North

(57:31):
Island ties down to trampoline. I mean, for God's sake,
JD's on the tarmac. He saved the election for Auburn
or has he any Other's a story for another day.
The ten point planned JD.

Speaker 22 (57:42):
So, in the past couple of days, I've seen a
lot of reporting from the American media about the ten
point proposal that the Iranians have made. Now, as I know,
because I've been involved in this, there are three different
ten point proposals at least that I've seen floating around.
The first ten point proposal was something that was admitted
and we think, frankly was probably written by chat GPT

(58:03):
that was submitted to Steve Whitcoff and Jared Kishner that
immediately went in the garbage and was rejected. There was
a second ten point proposal that was much more reasonable,
that was based on some back and forth between us.
That is the ten point proposal that the President was
referencing in his truth yesterday. And then frankly, I've seen
a third ten point proposal that's even more maximalist than

(58:23):
the first ten point proposal that's been floating around various
social media channels.

Speaker 2 (58:27):
Right, So, a lot of ten point proposals, But what
JD about the breaches.

Speaker 22 (58:31):
Ceasefires are always messy. An hour after the President announced
the ceasefire, the Iranians launch a bunch of missiles. Then
the Israelis responded, Then some of the golf Arab states responded,
this is the nature of a ceasefire. No ceasefire ever
goes without a little bit of choppiness.

Speaker 2 (58:47):
I tend to agree with them. Actually, you know, if
you know the Middle East, that's exactly this thing is
playing out like every other Middle East conflict. It means
a little more exacibated, a little more tense, but generally
speaking it's the same story. Anyway, this libing on thing
what Lebanon.

Speaker 22 (59:00):
I actually think that is a reasonable misunderstanding. But neither
us nor the Israelis said that that was going to
be part of the ceasefire. Again, We're working with people
to try to get through some of these things, but
it's really fundamentally we're on the right track.

Speaker 2 (59:16):
We got a lot more to do. Yeah, Mike, you
sound like you believe the wall's over. Your opening comments
and the way you ended the interview earlier on that
was the interview with Matthew Schmidt. I wish I had
your confidence. Well, I guess what, small insight, you can
actually have my confidence if you want. All you need
to do is read a lot, understand and come to
a conclusion. And when you've come to the conclusion that

(59:39):
I've come to, I'm reasonably optimistic. So therefore you can
in fact be optimistic if you want to be, and
you can in fact have confidence if you want to.
That's how life works. Matt Payne is in the country.
He's back with the supercars this weekend. We got the tower,
but I mean the whole North Island cyclone on Sunday.
What's the cyclone going to do to the racing on Sunday?

(01:00:00):
And twerpo should they act now?

Speaker 1 (01:00:03):
He's next asking the questions others won't the mic Hosking
Breakfast with Rainthrow of a Sport SV The Ultimate Performance
suv News togs end v.

Speaker 2 (01:00:17):
A seven plast eight Supercars is back and not just
back but back here double hitter first time Taalpa, then
followed by christ to Corossbath is when a Matt Pain
is looking to repeat last year's efforts when he won
in two of course, Mat pains with us. Matt, good morning,
how am Ike?

Speaker 21 (01:00:32):
You good?

Speaker 2 (01:00:32):
I'm extremely well work us through the season so far?
Fourth with a bunch of fourth and points with a
bunch of podiums. Are you traveling well? Do you think? Yeah?

Speaker 23 (01:00:44):
I think look season, you know it's it was a
little bit of a shame at the last two races,
obviously with a couple of DNFs, but all and no,
I think we've been We've been a little bit better
than last year. Our qualifying speed has improved for a
little bit, which is good, and our consistency was there
last year, which is which is going to help for
the championship. So yeah, fourth is probably not a not

(01:01:06):
a good showing or where we should be, but you know,
still on the top five, which is which is where
you need to be for the championship.

Speaker 2 (01:01:12):
Okay, random question given you haven't had a win so
far or a poll would you rather have wins or
points to win the championship?

Speaker 3 (01:01:22):
To win the championship, I'd rather have wins. If I was.

Speaker 23 (01:01:26):
Going to win the championship regardless, I'd I'd rather Yeah,
I'd rather wins for sure. But podiums, if that's going
to mean I'm going to be there that all are
I'll do with that too.

Speaker 2 (01:01:37):
What about the value of poles outside of bragging rights
and on certain tracks where pole really counts, what's the
value of poll.

Speaker 23 (01:01:47):
It's pretty big for us because it's a it's a
meaning that you know your your car is the fastest
out of out of everyone's, which is which is huge,
and that's a pretty strong statement to carry in to
the race, especially when if you get a good start
and you're out in front, you know there's the possibility
of people thinking that you're just going to pull away

(01:02:09):
and drive away, which which you know you always hope
is going to happen. But for us, it's it's about
giving us ourselves the best opportunity to score as many
points and hopefully grable when and the process of doing that.

Speaker 2 (01:02:23):
What have you been doing in the last time we
saw you out was Melbourne, and there's been the gap
of course, but do you drive in that time at
all or not?

Speaker 3 (01:02:32):
No, we can't do a lot of testing.

Speaker 23 (01:02:34):
We only get we only get the two days a
year unfortunately, so we're pretty limited in terms of that.
We've got a pretty pretty good simulator at the workshop
that we use.

Speaker 3 (01:02:45):
Kai and I, so we've been on that a lot.

Speaker 23 (01:02:48):
We've actually got Royal Perna on that as well, which
has been cool to figure figure that place out. It's
pretty interesting. But yeah, just you know, it's it's a
little bit hard not.

Speaker 3 (01:02:59):
Being able to drive car all the time. Obviously it's
been a few weeks since it was our last outing,
but for us, we're pretty used to just getting any
in going and not having much time to turn it up.

Speaker 2 (01:03:11):
So what's this going to? What's this mean for you
these next two weekends in that sense, do you get
us sort of a rhythm and momentum going when you
got back to backs like this?

Speaker 3 (01:03:20):
Yeah, one hundred percent.

Speaker 23 (01:03:22):
You know, it's been a long time since we've had
back to backgrounds, especially for us in New Zealand.

Speaker 3 (01:03:28):
It's a little bit different logistically.

Speaker 23 (01:03:30):
And you know, we obviously run out of the container here,
so that's a little bit of a different process for
all of us, even the boys unpacking packing it back up.
It's all a little bit different. Everyone gets used to it.
But for everyone, I think it's good to stay on
the roll. I know everyone will be pretty tired by
next Sunday, but we do get a little bit of

(01:03:53):
a break fortunately while the cars are being shipped back,
so when there's no cars in the workshop, there's not
too much to do.

Speaker 3 (01:04:00):
But yeah, for us as drivers, it's really cool.

Speaker 23 (01:04:02):
We obviously the more racing we can do, the better,
and two weekends in New Zealand is yeah dream untrue
for me for sure.

Speaker 2 (01:04:10):
You mentioned do you have no experience at all?

Speaker 23 (01:04:13):
On No, the only relapse I've ever done was taking
some of the Crusaders for hot laps and a Mustang,
so I've never raced there. I didn't get to go
to the South Island and my cars and my car's
journey in New Zealand, so yeah, probably Andre and Ryan
have the most experienced there. But yeah, for us it's

(01:04:35):
new track. We're always not too bad at getting to
grips with it, so yeah, hopefully we'll be all right.

Speaker 2 (01:04:42):
Good on you and of course you own TAPO. You're
the man.

Speaker 3 (01:04:46):
Yeah, Yeah, I like to think of it that way.

Speaker 23 (01:04:52):
You know, we've been fortunate that we've we've had a
pretty competitive Carvin, We've been there both years and last year,
you know, for me to get out and have two wins,
you know, my first.

Speaker 3 (01:05:03):
Time having more more than one win in a weekend
was was bloody unreal.

Speaker 23 (01:05:09):
And just to get the trophy also to win on Sunday,
I think it was very very special for a lot
of people.

Speaker 2 (01:05:15):
What do you make of the Toyotas so far? What's
the feedback in the paddic of the Toyotas and their arrival.

Speaker 23 (01:05:22):
Oh, look, to be honest with you, I think they've
actually done a pretty good job. You know, we're obviously
three years in development now with the cars just to
chassis alone, so that obviously helped string things along. But
especially for a new eero kit, new body kit, new motor,
I think they've done really well.

Speaker 3 (01:05:42):
The startup looks pretty good.

Speaker 23 (01:05:44):
They look pretty competitive on tires as well, which is
the main thing for us. So I think they could
be pretty dangerous by halfway through the year, towards the
end when they really start firing, I think.

Speaker 3 (01:05:54):
They could be They could be pretty quick tell.

Speaker 2 (01:05:57):
You what I read last night since we last had
you on the program. There was some ratings in Australia.
They were talking about motor Nothing grew in terms of
ratings on television, streaming and all that stuff. Nothing grew
more than motorsport. And you guys, supercars were part of it.
If one grew, you guys grew. So it's obviously on
the up and up. Do you feel that on any
given weekend?

Speaker 23 (01:06:19):
Yeah, Look, it's a good good question to ask because
I noticed last year compared to the two years that
I've done before, that there was a lot more people
at the track. There was a lot more engagement with
our fans. There was a lot more hype around the sport.
It's probably the biggest change we've had obviously with the
final stuff now, that was pretty highly anticipated, especially for

(01:06:43):
some of the battles, and to be honest with you,
the drama and the action that turned out was everything
I think or more than what people expected, and it's
exactly what the sport wanted. I guess if you're a
brock Feeny didn't want it no because it was bad
for him, but for everyone else, I think it was

(01:07:04):
the perfect recipe for action, and that's what people want
at the end of the day.

Speaker 2 (01:07:08):
Exactly, hold on there two seconds, mate, more in a moment.
Matt Payne is with us from Tapau this morning, fourteen.

Speaker 1 (01:07:13):
Past the Mike Asking Breakfast Full Show podcast on iHeartRadio
powered by News Talks.

Speaker 2 (01:07:19):
It be News Talks. It'll be sixteen pasta Matte Pains
with us ahead of the weekend in Taipa, then the
weekend in christ Of course, your performance Matt as a driver.
I referenced this question because Reynolds is out there for
the five hundredth time this weekend, which is quite something.
Not many people do that many Your performance as a
driver in terms of growth, What are you learning and

(01:07:41):
what does experience bring for you?

Speaker 23 (01:07:44):
I think for us we're always learning, you know, every
time we jump in the car, and basically when you're
back at the workshop, you're always trying to You're always
trying to find that that next thing that's gonna give
you half a percent or give you not even that.
You're trying to find every advantage you can get. And

(01:08:05):
for us, that's that's a lot of work, you know,
and for someone like like Dave has been in the
spot a long time, he's obviously seen a lot and
and uh and being been through a lot, and it's
very very interesting, you know how that could that that
makes a huge difference to your kind of view on
on on a race weekend or you know, he obviously

(01:08:27):
will do things differently to how I do things and think.

Speaker 3 (01:08:30):
Of things differently. And it's very interesting what you learn
over the years.

Speaker 23 (01:08:34):
And you know that till that all helps you in
the end when you when you want to guard onto
the track and drive.

Speaker 2 (01:08:40):
What's your what's your assessment of what you think your
sweet spot is in terms of development versus age? Does
age offset you know, so like some hot headedness early on?
Or do you need to be young and crazy to
take the risk that the old guy who's been there,
had done it before and put it in the wall
would not do anymore?

Speaker 23 (01:09:00):
I think you I think there's an element, you know,
a couple of tracks what you have on the calendar
that you need to be young and crazy Gold Coast
and BETHI is probably being some of those where you
just you almost need to blank out what can and
can't go.

Speaker 3 (01:09:15):
Wrong and and just drive. And that's that's not easy
to do for some people. I really enjoy that part
of it. But but for me, I'm always trying to keep.

Speaker 23 (01:09:27):
My trajectory in terms of improvement and learning, you know,
on a linear scale and constantly improving the moment of flatlines.
And you're not you're not trying to improve yourself is
when you can be worried about going to the weekend
and not getting the results you want. So for me,
it's it's in terms of just trying to keep that

(01:09:47):
upwards as age slowly creeps up on me.

Speaker 2 (01:09:51):
Do you know are you of great value? Is this
a specific skill the car itself, Knowing the car, knowing
what you want from the car and can get out
of a car, and what's possible dovetailing in with your
ability to drive it.

Speaker 3 (01:10:07):
Yeah, looks it's a super car.

Speaker 23 (01:10:10):
Is an interesting racing car, quite a lot different to
a lot of other cars in the world, and it
does take a certain set of certain set of skills,
I must say, to probably drive it to one hundred
and one.

Speaker 3 (01:10:26):
But also it's.

Speaker 23 (01:10:28):
About you know, giving the right feedback when you're coming
off the track, knowing sort of what you need and
don't need for the next session, knowing the racecraft.

Speaker 3 (01:10:37):
There's a whole lot that goes to it.

Speaker 23 (01:10:40):
And obviously, now that you know I've been doing this
for it for a while now, it feels like, you know,
I sort of feel like you get into a bit
of a sweet spot where you kind of know and
don't know where your limits are, and that's kind of
you know where you want to operate, and obviously you
know and you're driving really well, and you know when

(01:11:02):
some laps there's a little bit left on the table
and I kind of know where to hit my spots
and on the track, and I know that, you know,
that was that was basically all I had.

Speaker 3 (01:11:12):
You know, that's what I want to be able to
say when I come off the track.

Speaker 2 (01:11:14):
Good on you. Full of expectation this weekend, I'm assuming.
I mean, you can't think any other way, can you.

Speaker 12 (01:11:21):
Now.

Speaker 3 (01:11:22):
We're always trying to go and we're always trying to win.

Speaker 23 (01:11:25):
That's how that's our goal, you know for us, you know,
second in the team's championship where where we've developed into
a pretty pretty front running team, which is pretty cool
over the last couple of years. So you know, that
step we made last year was awesome. I just hope
we can we can continue that and try and you know,
stay up the front and really, you know, I would say,

(01:11:47):
would you know, challenge Red Bull, but they're behind us
at the moment.

Speaker 3 (01:11:50):
As well, So exactly.

Speaker 23 (01:11:51):
It's everyone's as competitive as as as they've ever been.

Speaker 3 (01:11:55):
That's that's how I see.

Speaker 2 (01:11:56):
It, that Red Bull. If you looked at it, I mean,
if they got all the pieces back on it from Melbourne,
because most of it fell apart.

Speaker 3 (01:12:03):
It was a little bit of a nasty crash.

Speaker 23 (01:12:05):
But those guys they run a pretty high, highly classed operation,
so I'm sure they would have nailed everything.

Speaker 2 (01:12:12):
Is it You're at Kinlock beautiful this morning? Is it fantastic?

Speaker 3 (01:12:15):
Yeah, unreal.

Speaker 23 (01:12:16):
It's probably one of the coolest courses I've been to
this Unfortunately, I'm not going to be able to able
to do it justice with my swing, but I'm sure
it'll makes.

Speaker 3 (01:12:26):
Some good video.

Speaker 2 (01:12:28):
Well, go well this weekend and the next weekend. Always
good to catch up with you, Ertie. Thanks Mike Real,
nice to talk. Matt Payne, who was with the Super Cows,
is coming weekend. He's at Kinlock has in the golf
course on a beautiful Twerpoe morning, eight twenty two.

Speaker 1 (01:12:43):
So myke Costing breakfast with Ranger of a sport sv News,
Togs Dead.

Speaker 2 (01:12:48):
B rod Little and Britain. I know it's been very
warm forecast, nice, nice spring day, one of the warmest
days of the year. They always do this in Britain.
It's been one of the warmest days of the Year's
got about twenty four to twenty six degrees in certain
parts of Britain. So we'll catch up with shortly now.
My concern here is this having talked to Nichola Willis
this morning and also the Reserve Bank Governor Anna Brayman,
who by the way, good feedback on her. She seems

(01:13:09):
to be good stuff. That was a refreshing insight unto
the Reserve Bank thought process, not something we used to
but certainly something we need more of. Couldn't agree more so.
She's done the right thing with the press conference. Each
and every time they speak, they get ahold of press conference.
I once again recommend that you watch the fourth thing.
You get full context, you get a better understanding of
how this country is being run to a degree. But
also she seems to be materially different from the other

(01:13:33):
bloke who did what you know what he did. She
seems to see through potential trouble. So so far, so good,
so I'm very encouraged. But then I read yesterday the
cost of residential building is going up at as fastest
pace in two years. Now, You've got to be very
careful with statistics when they do at larmist headlines like
fastest pace in two years. What are the actual numbers, Well,

(01:13:54):
they're not actually that bad. This is the Cordell Construction
Cost Index one percent in the three months to March. So,
in other words, costs have gone up one percent in
three months. So if you annualize that, out's four percent
a year. Not ideal, but not the end of the world.
Zero point nine for the December quarter. Fifty percent of
materials are a part of that makeup of that particular index,

(01:14:17):
forty percent on wages and ten percent on other expenses.
Annual cost growth at three long term average at four.

Speaker 16 (01:14:24):
Now.

Speaker 2 (01:14:24):
The reason for this is they're moving. So the sector
is moving, which is good because lots of consents, and
you always point out to me the consent is not
a building. That is true, but we are seeing building. Now.
What worries me at this particular point is if we
are seeing momentum building. Let's hope it continues, but does
that automatically? In other words, the moment we start swinging

(01:14:44):
a hammer, prices start rising, and is that of concern?
So twelve percent lift in masonry? Why five percent lift
in wallpaper? Why led lights are up five percent? Why
these are all reasonable? Questy? Though I do note ironically
PBC piping down in prices or that may well change
because of the war. Of course, it's good to stay vigilant, though,

(01:15:06):
isn't it.

Speaker 1 (01:15:06):
News is next Opinion edit, informed, und apologetic, The Mic
Hosking Breakfast with Bailey's real Estate altogether better across residential,
commercial and rural news togs Head be Mike.

Speaker 2 (01:15:19):
I find it very amusing that the Green Party are
so concerned about the cost of fuel. Doesn't this go
against their own idealistic policies wanting everyone out of their vehicles?
Yet does? And as I referenced earlier on, it's worth
looking up at the moment. There's a great, big scrap
going on in Canada in the NDP, the New Democrat Party,
who are essentially the Greens. They're a left leaning pro
climate party. They got spanked in the recent elections. They

(01:15:41):
were once the second biggest party and are now trailing
badly at the tail of the field. They've got a
new leader. He's very pro climate, and of course the
whole argument around the climate has had its rug pulled
out from under it due to this war. As soon
as we almost instantly recognize that the world does, in
fact run on oil, always has, probably rightly or wrongly,
always will. And there are certain regions of Canada, Saskatchewan

(01:16:04):
and Alberta being a couple of examples where the leaders
of that particular Green Party or climate pro party see
so much oil revenue coming into their provinces at the
moment that there's a fight within the party as to
what they should actually do about it, because the national
leader goes, right, we've got to get back to the
climate business, and they're going, well, hold on, we've never
seen more money coming in here. And know we don't

(01:16:25):
like oil, but look at the money. Look at the money.
Can you look at the money? And so they're in
a quandary. So a couple of a couple of home
truths have been brought to bear in this conflict. Twenty
two minutes away from.

Speaker 12 (01:16:35):
Nine International correspondence with ends and eye Insurance, Peace of
mind for New Zealand business.

Speaker 2 (01:16:41):
In Britain, we go ron little, good morning, Good morning
to make I'm reading from Bournemouth to London, Weymouth to Maidenhead.
It has been hot. It has been twenty six degrees.
Have you had a lovely day? And son Chuck, if
only that.

Speaker 13 (01:16:54):
Were true from Bournemouth to Maidenhead may be up where
I am. There was a frost this morning. But it
is true that it has been unseasonably warm in most
of the country and people are thoroughly enjoying it. I've
still got the oil heating on, which will cost me
a packet. But it is unseasonably warm in the south here.

Speaker 2 (01:17:14):
But not as much as it would have cost you
if the war had continued, which it appears not to
for now. Starma is in the Middle East looking to
do exactly what.

Speaker 13 (01:17:22):
Well, sort of replace Trump as an ally who the
Middle East countries can have some conviction in given that
this has been a date bark, hasn't it. I mean
I would have thought most people agreed that it had
been a date bark, and that Starma has improved his

(01:17:47):
position in this country, and I think has probably improved
his position in the Middle East. As well by being
very wary of Trump's ambitions, and so he's meeting Saudi Arabia,
probably also going to take in the UAE and Qatar,
all countries which we desperately depend upon as allies, and

(01:18:10):
we'll be saying, look, there will be some sort of
normality to this in the end. The question which the
question which remains is this slightly vague suggestion that he's
going to do anything about keeping the straight of horn
Muzz open. My feeling is that if the Americans can't
do it, then us, with our three pedalos and a canoe,

(01:18:31):
are going to be even more hard stretched.

Speaker 2 (01:18:33):
That's sort of what I was sort of wanting to
ask him if I had the chance. I mean, it's
all very well being in the Middle East and being
in Saudi Arabia, and I feel sorry for the Gulf
States at the moment because they do need the straight
and they're being constrained dreadfully. What literally can Starmer do
to alleviate the problem.

Speaker 13 (01:18:49):
Well, we have one of our what do you call
the aircraft carriers there. I do know what use that is.
I don't know if they're going to be used. So
far as we know, the peace deal between America and Iran,
allows Iran to continue controlling the straight amumas, which, as
many American politicians saying, it is absolutely catastrophic, catastrophic for US,

(01:19:11):
catastrophic even more so for the Gulf States. So literally,
what he's going to do. I have no idea that
there was a suggestion there might be some kind of
pan European force which might police the straight performers, but
all of that is off. It has seems to be
the case. Trump has signed over the straight offormans to Iran.

(01:19:37):
It is perplexing and I think very worrying.

Speaker 2 (01:19:40):
Indeed it is now I take it this goes back
to the BI election. Gordon and they had a look
at this so called family voting, which we've never heard
of in this country. It's an unusual thing and Farage
was all over it, and I thought they had an
investigation whereby they found none of it, to which he
decried the result. But what's the Electoral Commission warning against
and does it actually exist?

Speaker 13 (01:20:01):
Well, it does exist. An independent and in fact left
of center pressure group monitored what happened in the in
the Goldlan Denton di election and found out that twelve
percent of votes casting in the polling stations that they
monitored had bits of family voting taking places as that

(01:20:25):
they went on, which is basically men accompanying women into
the polling booths and telling them what way to vote.
I mean, I've tried that with my wife just work.
But there was a kind of police inquiry which said
that no crime had been committed, which is questionable, but

(01:20:48):
it's certainly true that this happens, and it's well known
to happen within particularly Pakistani Bangladeshi communities within the country.

Speaker 2 (01:21:00):
If you threaten the husband jail time, you'd need to
prove it in court. And to prove it in court,
what's the wife going to go? Yes, he did and
he's guilty. I don't think so.

Speaker 13 (01:21:08):
Well. Rather, that's rather the point, and I think that
the only thing you could do is an actor law
which stopped more than one person going towards the polling blush.
But we kind of have that law anyway, and it
didn't know one took any notice of it in the
last by election, but it has led to a number

(01:21:29):
of articles today saying that the police will be on
the watch out for husbands telling their wives what way
to vote, which who come as a shock to the
nation's husband's I think both those in the Asian community
and those beyond.

Speaker 2 (01:21:45):
Mike, you have a good one and we will catch
up next week. Rod a little out of Britain. The
other couple of things you need to know about Kimmy Bednock.
They're in the doctors strike at the moment, of course,
six days. I think this will be the second day technically, anyway,
she would upon becoming Prime Minister being doctors. I don't
know whether she can do that technically, but she's claiming
she can. Meantime, the BBC remember that BAFT nonsense where

(01:22:06):
the Turette syndrome campaign had yelled out a racial slur
involuntarily because he's got turets. They had a look at that.
The ECU, which is the executive Complaints Unit at the BBC,
had a look and they've upheld the complaint should never
have happened. The point being it wasn't edited out, so

(01:22:27):
it aired on BBC one or on a two hour delay,
and they still didn't get to it, and it remained
available on iPlayer the morning after and they still hadn't
got to it. So I think I probably agree with
them to be fair. Church of England. Actually, I'm surprised
this isn't getting more news around the world this morning.
The Church of England is planning to istion an apology
for their forced adoption. This happened three decades after w
W two, so there were tens of thousands of these

(01:22:49):
babies in Britain born to women who were unmarried. They
ran about one hundred mother and baby homes across England.
Of course the words they haven't issued it yet, but
BBC has seen it. We are deeply sorry. So it's
taken them a time to get there. I think I
read yesterday In fact, Britain, Britain, it could well become
the sauna hub of Europe. More about that in the

(01:23:09):
Moments eight forty five.

Speaker 1 (01:23:12):
The High Asking Breakfast Full Show podcast on iHeartRadio powered
by News Talks at b The other.

Speaker 2 (01:23:19):
Weird thing I didn't have time to talk to Rod about.
No might another time, but the up to turn and
fifty schools in Britain. See knives are a huge problem
in Britain. Britain's gone to Hell and a handcart. It
really is not what it once was, tragically for a
huge variety of reasons. But knife crime is one of
their biggest social problems. Anyway, up to Turner in fifty
schools in knife crime hot spots are going to receive

(01:23:41):
specialist training in a bit to divert children from serious violence.
So this is costing them millions. The government promises they're
going to have knife crime within a decade. How are
they going to do that? Anyway, this is the point
they're going to train school leaders on the risks of
knife crime. I thought one of the risks would be
if you're in a room with a person with a knife,

(01:24:02):
things could get ugly, but that might be simplifying it
a bit. Anyway, they're going to develop quote unquote local
solutions to improve pupil safety and prevents here's violence. More
intensive and tailored support will be provided around these fifty
of the two hundred and fifty schools because they've got
now listen to this and see if this makes sense
to you. They've got a new hyper local mapping technology

(01:24:24):
that apparently pinpoints knife crime hot spots down to the
nearest ten square meters. Is that the biggest load of
pile of crap you've ever heard? Or what is that?
Even bigger crap than Act now when I note the
cyclones down to a category too. By the way, how
do you pinpoint a knife crime hot spot two within

(01:24:47):
ten square meters? So, in other words, on the other
side of your house, they could get that's a hot
spot right there. Then they're going to have some intensive training.

Speaker 17 (01:24:56):
Next to the calorie draw exactly.

Speaker 2 (01:24:59):
I reckon they made that up now. Saunas, so there's
a lot of saunas opening in Britain, six hundred public
saunas across the UK. Of course has been big in
Europe for years, but you go to Finland, den Mark,
Sweeden and stuff that everyone's got a sauna. Every house
has got a sauna. It's not a thing. It's just
like having a laundry. You have a laundry and a sauna.
And you know my view on saunas. I love saunas.
I sauna literally every day and it's absolutely fantastic. But

(01:25:22):
this boom in public saunas. I draw the line at
public saunas, I can't do it, couldn't do it, wouldn't
do it. There's something different being in my own sauna
by myself, having a word with myself. Putting the world
to rights at ninety degrees. That's one thing being in
there with other people that to me is abnormal Or

(01:25:44):
am I abnormal?

Speaker 3 (01:25:46):
I mean sort of.

Speaker 17 (01:25:47):
I mean it wouldn't be that different to what you're
doing right now, but I'm naked and hotter. But other
than that, people would just have to sit there listening
to this kind of thing.

Speaker 2 (01:25:58):
But at the moment it's cool and I got my
clothes on, it's a whole different thing. Nine minutes away
from nine.

Speaker 1 (01:26:04):
The mic Hosking breakfast with Bailey's real Estate Newstalgs.

Speaker 2 (01:26:07):
They be right. We're dealing with the fuel, have been
dealing with the fuel of late, haven't we fueled prices?
They're high around the world right now they're heading home.
Everyone's affected by this, So guess who's feeling it the most?
Every day KEIW is of course just trying to get
to work or rub dropping the kids off at sports
or every day qyw is just trying to make a living.
The other ones I really feel sorry for at the moment,
the diesel uses. So here's a thought fuel up with
a company that gets at that company as why Timo,

(01:26:28):
they've been around for eighty years. Best part of that
there one hundred percent key We owned by the same
family and we like that way. Timo's right here in
it with us, and that matters, especially at the moment
because Waitomo's always fought for fairer prices for us. So
keeping those fuel costs down where it counts every single day.
The next time you're run staring at the pump ordering
the bulk fuel for your business, if you're into that,

(01:26:49):
or needing fuel delivered to the work site, if that's
a bit of you, ask yourself, who are you backing,
Who's always going to supply you with the fairer fuel prices,
And the answer will be why Tomo. And honestly, it
doesn't get much more Keywi than that pasking Finland, Mike,
three to three and a half million saunas to a
population of fiverishgre It's you never look back on getting

(01:27:10):
a sauna, the health benefits. I could rave endlessly about it, Mike.
I've met some wonderful people in the sauna. Public is great,
although I'd love to own one. I've met some lovely
people in the sauna.

Speaker 17 (01:27:26):
You've never been tipped by one of those ones. You
know that park next to the beach and people just
come up from the beach.

Speaker 2 (01:27:32):
It's a thing. I agree, it's a thing. There's one
in Queen's Sound that's opened on the end of the
wharf and you just steer out at the Wakatipa and
that's fantastic. It's why I didn't play team sports either,
because that that post practice slash game communal shower. You
know what I'm saying in the ice bath to get.

Speaker 17 (01:27:47):
Sounding like you've got something to hide.

Speaker 2 (01:27:50):
You know, when you're at school and you had to
do the school swimming and no one wanted to get
changed in the changing shits? Am I going down memory?

Speaker 12 (01:27:56):
Like?

Speaker 17 (01:27:56):
I mean that that is very cold water.

Speaker 2 (01:27:58):
You're dealing with it worse than a swimming pool. School
swimming pool five minutes away from.

Speaker 15 (01:28:03):
Nine trending now with gimmers Where house book in your
flu vaccination today?

Speaker 2 (01:28:09):
What's more stupid getting kids to swim in September and
christ Juch in a pool that's not heated, or telling
people five days before a cyclon into wake now.

Speaker 15 (01:28:19):
Trending now, will gimmu square house book in your flu
vaccination today?

Speaker 2 (01:28:24):
Oh my lord, I've got Andy Wilman. Andy Willman. I
love Andy Wilman. He's the producer of course of Clarkson's Farm.
Listen to this, We've got good news.

Speaker 5 (01:28:31):
There's a scene in the news series coming up. It's
almost a bit like a It happens at Christmas time,
so there are in a lot of farming going on,
because there isn't a lot of farming going on, but
there's Christmas at the pub and it's a little bit
Vicar of Dibley Christmas specialsh in that the stories are there,
but generally wants to make a grotto, Santa's grotto. So

(01:28:55):
he has a meeting with Charlie sort of talking about
how he wants to do it. And I think that's
the best scene I've ever ever ever seen them do.
And I remember gem and Id the editor, we were
looking at it going you know that this is just
the best television to make over.

Speaker 2 (01:29:11):
If you want to see it's on Extraordinary Life Stories podcast.
He does a lot of podcasts standing and when he
told it when he was on the program here a
couple of months ago, he was saying that this could
go forever because he wants to pull the pin on it.
But every time they do it, and this sort of
extrapolates that story. Every time they do something they go,
this is better than it's ever been. This is just brilliant.
So the fifth season, this is the really good news.

(01:29:32):
By the way, the fifth season could be released as
early as the first weeks of next month. Amazon Prime.
You were thinking of canceling it, weren't you. You've seen
the Madison Have you seen that? Oh my lord, that's crap.
Avoid that at all. Public saunas and the medicine. Avoid
both the happy Days.

Speaker 1 (01:29:55):
For more from the mic Asking Breakfast, listen live to
news talks they'd be from sixth Sam weekdays, or follow
the podcast on iHeartRadio.

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