Full Show Podcast: 10 March 2026

On the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast for Tuesday 10th of March, we look at the share market and what will happen to prices at the pump after oil prices spiked.  

Finance Minister Nicola Willis discusses the potential for the Government to scrap the fuel tax next year, plus inflation pressures from the war. 

And Kiwi country up-and-comer Zac Griffith performs his new single and details his self-taught rise in the country scene. 

Get the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast every weekday morning on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts. 

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
You're trusted home for news, sport, entertainment, opinion and Mike
the Mic asking Breakfast with Ranger over Sport, sv the
Ultimate Performance, SUV News Togs dead by Welcome today.

Speaker 2 (00:13):
Do you want to play a game of let's freak
out about the petrol price? The Finance Minister on fuel stocks,
oversight committees and ComCom price gouging. Watch We've got good
news on multi vitamins. Zach Griffith and his guitar will
be an after ad to play us all the song
and show us how good he is. Catherines and France
rod Is in the UK asking welcome to the day.
Seven past six, will Ambrose Evans Pritchard, the Telegraph writer

(00:35):
who I alluded to last week, is having this theory
over epic fury tested as of now. So the premise
was Trump has launched this thing with low stocks of
fuel in America, an economy that's troubled, and the weekend's
job numbers made it even worse, and a set of
polls that has them, as they say in the States, underwater.
The consistent theme around Trump is the markets. No matter
how mad, whatever it is he's doing, appears, if the

(00:57):
markets tank, he panics. The Pritchard piece jested, Trump cannot
tolerate one hundred bucks a barrel, so after just one week,
the test is on can he. Trump's opening comments as
the triple figures were reached was it's a small price
to pay where if you follow these things? Have you
heard that before? And the answer is tariffs When they

(01:17):
got launched, he talked of a little bit of pain,
remember that, a little bit of pain before we get
so rich you can't believe it. Are They're not getting rich?
Of course in the ensuing period of the Supreme Court's
rule and the refunds are being organized. Meantime, any number
of people, including one blow from the New York Fed,
last week wrote a report based on research that told
us it's the Americans, of course, who've paid the price
for tariffs. Fast forward to epic fury, and now one

(01:40):
hundred plus a barrel is a price worth paying. Will
let me tell you, Let me tell you of a nothing.
It isn't nothing, But nothing freaks people out more than
watching their standard of living being blown up, and petrol
is at the core of everyone's standard of living. Pritchard
is right to the extent that this thing is over
in three weeks, we'll all move on ef it gets
bogged down, and one hundred plus settles and for the
long haul he can kiss them ad terms goodbye, and

(02:00):
essentially his presidency will be over. Which is not to
say that's what I think will happen, because I don't.
But one hundred plus came along awfully quickly, and all
the noise about the next stage and the big surprise
and the ramping up better happen this week or it
will start to look a lot like every other American incursion.
And what an irony if you think about it, given
all the energy the Dems and the various ags around

(02:22):
the country have put in through any number of court
cases and Epstein efforts to nobylin. If it ends up
being Trump himself who destroys himself.

Speaker 1 (02:32):
News of the world in ninety seconds.

Speaker 2 (02:35):
Right developments and epic fury. What have we got? Oil
stabilized thought of I'll come to that. The first of
the old blokes' son has been named supreme leader. Of course,
the remain thos in Iranu like that, and you go
meantime in New York at the UN they're still arguing
over the school bombing.

Speaker 3 (02:52):
We do not believe that the value effort was involved
in that incident.

Speaker 4 (02:56):
But we have totate very clearly we do.

Speaker 5 (02:58):
Not target civilians, they target the military infrastructure.

Speaker 6 (03:02):
David and resume they're doing exactly the opposite.

Speaker 2 (03:05):
Australia, of course, has been dragg didn't given a bunch
of these Iranian women's football team members have scampered on
the Gold Coast. Presumably they will apply for refugee status.
Trump of course has weighed in.

Speaker 7 (03:13):
He says they will most likely be killed.

Speaker 8 (03:17):
Don't do it, mister Prime Minister, give asylum.

Speaker 7 (03:20):
The US will take them if you won't.

Speaker 2 (03:23):
Meantime, Trump's busty starmer is giving a lecture on war,
oil and the economy.

Speaker 7 (03:28):
With looking cross departmental within government, assessing the risks, monitoring
and talking to our international partners as well about what
more we can do together to reduce the likely impact
on people here and businesses here.

Speaker 2 (03:44):
Is it just me or does he sound more useless
by the day. A couple of other things. One that's
Commonwealth today in that particular part of the world. So
the king has been out for the first time post
the Andrew business.

Speaker 8 (03:52):
So it's very clear yellow banners behind them saying, what
did you know.

Speaker 2 (03:58):
That's not my ideal.

Speaker 9 (03:59):
It's not great for the royal family.

Speaker 2 (04:01):
And two in Scotland a vape shop caught fire. It
happened to be next to the Glasgow Central Station, so
the whole place went up. Many business has now been decimated. Okay,
we don't have that. Finally, new report has found that
eliminating cancer would pay for itself many times over. So
in the US A line, it would deliver an estimated
one hundred and eighty five trillion dollars to the economy

(04:22):
in the next thirty years due to longer lifespans, increased
workforce participation in the higher taxes. And even if one
hundred percent elimination is impossible, lowering cancer rates by eighty
percent would bring a nearly one hundred and thirty twenty
So that as new as the world and hope in
ninety yeah, so I can. Fun fact for the morning,
the Hummer's closure is the biggest oil supplied disruption in history.

(04:44):
This is rapidian energy. This morning disrupted for nine days,
more than double the previous record. The previous record with
the sewers crisis back in nineteen fifty six. Meantime, as
I mentioned the oil's back below one hundred dollars. G
seven Finance ministers have been meeting literally in the last
couple of hours. There was a suggestion they could tap
the reserves put in three hundred million barrels, which is massive.
They don't do that, and they haven't done that very
often historically speaking. By tapping the three hundred million they

(05:08):
would alleviate the problem. They don't think, and have announced
as such. They don't think at this point they need to.
Twelve past six.

Speaker 1 (05:17):
The Mic Asking Breakfast Full Show podcast on iHeartRadio powered
by News Talks Evy.

Speaker 2 (05:25):
Yeah, very much, looking forward to catch up with Catherine.
Europe's very much on the move Macrons and Cyprus, and
he's sending the navy into her moose to try and
open the thing up, so he's active. Starmer appears not
to be interested Turkey. Meantime, who shot down overnight another
Iranian ballistic missile. They haven't invoked Article four NATO's Article
four yet, but Erdawan's getting pretty you know what. Fifteen

(05:45):
past I'm suring Partner's Andrew Callahagan morning, very good morning, Mike,
right our workers through what happened?

Speaker 10 (05:53):
Well, the situation is what I would describe as dynamic, Mike,
It's quite fluid. So we're in a very different situation
now than when we were when we closed our trading
session yesterday. So twelve hours is a very long time
in markets at the moment. So for a bit of fun, like,
shall we recap yesterday? Well started with what I would
call a melt up in the old price. Now I

(06:14):
talk about Brent Crew, there are other measures, but when
I sat down to make some notes yesterday afternoon, the
price was over one hundred and twenty US dollars a barrel,
So at one point that was a twenty five percent
move in one day, which had followed a twenty eight
percent lift last week, and the price had already jumped
sixteen percent in January mayde Of course, remember last week
we talked about saying, oh was the main mechanism transmission

(06:35):
of this mess into the global economy?

Speaker 4 (06:38):
So what we saw yesterday was a historically significant moved.

Speaker 10 (06:41):
It ranked right up there with the spike was saw
in response to things like the Ukraine conflict. The elevated
price spike was Sare in two thousand and eight. The
big question, Mike, of course, is which is still unanswered,
and no one really knows is this is a Ukrainian
type spike which corrected eventually, although I would note that
it did take months for that price to turn.

Speaker 4 (07:00):
It wasn't we weren't talking weeks there, or something.

Speaker 10 (07:02):
Like the elevated price levels that we saw after the
Arab spring back in two thousand and twenty twelve, which
we measured in years. And it all revolves around the
straits of hall was they are effectively closed. I think,
as you just mentioned, Mike, that is almost an unprecedented
situation for this thing to be closed as it is.
Once it is navigable, prices should subside, but no one

(07:25):
knows when that will be. So, to trot out another aphorism,
uncertainty is kryptonite for financial markets, and we saw that
during the day yesterday because sheer marks across Asia got
absolutely hammered. The nicket in the NFL over five percent.
Another measure of the topics there fell almost four percent.
The career market was down six percent. That was over

(07:46):
eight percent lower at one point. Just a few things
to consider, Mic that maybe haven't been sort of universally
talked about. You shut the straits of hormors You've got
these people producing oil on the downstream from the Strait
of Hall was they if they've got no empty ship's
coming in, they've got to store the oil. If they've
got nowhere to store the oil, they have to.

Speaker 4 (08:04):
Close down production.

Speaker 10 (08:06):
And the thing here is you can't restart production as
quickly as you can shut it down, so you've got
to put that into the timeline.

Speaker 4 (08:13):
A whole lot of uncertach around that.

Speaker 10 (08:14):
There's also an undercurrent of skepticism about the medium tom
prognosis here. Is it realistic to assume that in a
month as conflict will be effectively resolved and if not,
well there be a term geopolitical premium built into the oil.

Speaker 4 (08:28):
Price, you know, for some time.

Speaker 10 (08:30):
But now overnight, of course we've had the announcement about
potential tapping of strategure reserves.

Speaker 4 (08:35):
So everything has calmed down, Thank the Lord.

Speaker 10 (08:38):
Your share markets are lower, but nowhere near the degree
that we saw in the Asian marks yesterday, so that
carnage has sort of gone away, all settled back, as
you said, under one hundred dollars a barrel.

Speaker 4 (08:48):
So we will we will just work through another day
to day.

Speaker 2 (08:51):
Indeed, to bring it back here so I'm watching the
Prime Minister of the Finance minister. She's with us after
seven thirty, by the way, So we seem okay for
supply on water and on land, but fertilizer once again,
I know it's potentially an issue.

Speaker 10 (09:04):
Yeah, well, there are a number of issues we are
completely dependent on important supply. Of course, it's not just
petrol we tend to think about our cars. We've also
got jet fuel, you've got d's which sort of powers
the agricultural and the industrial economy.

Speaker 4 (09:18):
And there are a couple of boats on the way.

Speaker 10 (09:19):
As you say, we don't know the breakdown of what
types of fuel they are carrying.

Speaker 4 (09:23):
But yes, it's not just fuel.

Speaker 10 (09:24):
There's also fertilizer and the price of that is going
up because a whole lot of that comes through the
straits of hormones as well, so that will three through
potentially into food prices.

Speaker 4 (09:33):
At the moment, we don't have.

Speaker 10 (09:34):
A great bit of clarity on supply and demand situation there.
So we've got fuel, you've got food, you've got fertilizer.
Potential price issues at the same time possibly impacted on growth.
So what does that do that FeAs into what the
RB and Z has to think about now, Mike. The
local interest rate market went into absolute overdrive yesterday. So
swap rates, which are important for setting mortgages, they spiked.

Speaker 4 (09:56):
They were up over twenty basis points. That is a
massive move in one day. So and then I was
looking at where the market is pricing, what the RBNZ
is going to do.

Speaker 10 (10:05):
One point, the market was pricing more than two interest
rate hikes by September.

Speaker 4 (10:11):
By the end of the day, that is settled down
a bit.

Speaker 10 (10:13):
We were we're looking at two hikes by December. Of course,
the local share market fell over three percent.

Speaker 4 (10:18):
That is a very material move.

Speaker 10 (10:20):
You take out COVID March twenty twenty, it's only having
a handful of times. In New Zealand unsurprisingly got smacked
down on a state percent. Fishing, pike or healthcare big
part of the market almost five percent, Tourism holdings five
and a half percent.

Speaker 4 (10:32):
Let's just say it wasn't a lot of fun, yes,
tod Mike.

Speaker 10 (10:35):
No, everything is settled down there, And I just want
to close out with a note sort of investors in
key we save for people out that you've got to
focus on the long term here. This short term dissification
is part and parcel of what markets do, and Mike it.

Speaker 4 (10:48):
Too shall pass.

Speaker 2 (10:50):
It always does. What are the numbers?

Speaker 4 (10:52):
Okay?

Speaker 10 (10:53):
So the Dow Jones is down three hundred and eighty
seven points, which is point eight of a percent. Forty
one and fifteen p five hundred is down point three percent,
so these aren't huge moves. Twenty points sixty seven to
two oh and the nastiks a second ago, it's actually up.

Speaker 4 (11:07):
It's now down.

Speaker 10 (11:09):
Thirty points, which is point one four percent, so all
quite calm. Twenty two thousand, three hundred.

Speaker 4 (11:14):
And fifty five.

Speaker 10 (11:15):
The foot Sea lost point two percent in the end,
ten thousand, two hundred and sixty three, the Nick down
two thousand, eight hundred and ninety two points, quite a
big number, fifty two thousand and seven two eight. The
Shanghai compset down two thirds percent four O nine six.
The Aussi's yesterday had a pretty bad day, down two
point eight five percent two hundred and fifty one points
eight five nine nine. And then the Enzex fifty close

(11:36):
thirty one thousand and ninety eight.

Speaker 4 (11:38):
As I said, I think.

Speaker 10 (11:39):
Market should bounced back a little bit today.

Speaker 4 (11:41):
Kiwi dollar point five nine two seven.

Speaker 10 (11:43):
That's okay against the US point eight four against the
oussie point five one one against the Euro, point four
four to two two against the pound ninety three point
sixty six Japanese yen gold fivey one hundred and fifty
and when I last checked, Brent crew ninety nine dollars
and seventy four cents.

Speaker 2 (11:59):
Make catch up tomorrow. Andrew Calloho Share and Partners, asking
United Airlines interesting comments overnight. Scott Kirby is their boss.
He's seen like they all have a huge increase in
jet fuel. But that's meaningful. It will hit them in
Q two, he says, But demand is resilient. Are you
seeing regions he claims, like Australia where it's surge. No,

(12:20):
you're not going to the Middle East, but you're still
desperate to fly and you're flying other airlines in other places.
So he's bullish. Interestingly enough six twenty one and aha,
who remus to upset?

Speaker 4 (12:30):
Be good?

Speaker 1 (12:33):
The Vike Hosking Breakfast Full Show podcast on iHeartRadio powered
by the News talks at b.

Speaker 2 (12:40):
You watch the media with interest today. The story is
floating around in the digital media this morning till it's
still telling you that oil's over one hundred dollars a barrel.
It isn't, and so they're going to need to pick
up their act because this is a dynamic situation. Prediction
market betters increasingly expect the US economy to enter a
recession this year. This is the Kelsey market, so it's
the highest rate since November. Interesting thing about that is

(13:03):
that's why this thing's not going to last long, because
there's no way in the world a president of the
United States is going to be at war and not
doing particularly well with oil at one hundred dollars or
thereabout as he goes to the midterms. Obviously, Sex twenty five.

Speaker 1 (13:16):
Trending now with him as well, and your Home of
Sports and.

Speaker 2 (13:21):
Nutrition sort of related, the Putin is Onwell, rumors are back,
so you know the story he's had Parkinson's, He's had cancer.
I mean he hasn't, obviously, but people think he has.
He travels with the thyroid cancer surgeon wherever he goes,
and then he turns up in public and he's fine anyway,
So new rumors this morning comes after he did a
recording for State television to celebrate International Women's Day. He

(13:41):
had to redo it. Because he had a frog in
his throat, but his team accidentally they'll be shot dead
by now his team accidentally put out the wrong version
before correcting it. So is this a man clearing his
throat or a man who's unwell.

Speaker 3 (13:55):
Sprasnik snz Jen poster for assureds.

Speaker 2 (14:15):
Just a lot of throats through. Clearly to be fair,
isn't it? Jeez settled?

Speaker 11 (14:19):
There?

Speaker 12 (14:19):
It sounds about like a munty python's.

Speaker 2 (14:21):
Somebody go you want some water? Your want on water
gas B two sixty four for ninety one diesel two
oh nine ninety five at two eight two ninety eight
at three bucks in New Zealand's an issue interesting yesterday
and we've got Nicola Willis. As I mentioned to Andrew
a moment ago after, I think the government did really
well yesterday. If you watch the postcab press conference, which
of course you didn't but I did. H they came

(14:43):
out of as well. They painted the picture basically that
in difficult times what you want are sensible economic managers,
which is what I was trying to say to the
Prime Minister yesterday. If you're readily in Dan's piece over
the weekend, he was saying that bad economic times is
bad news for the government. It's actually, I think the opposite.
In difficult times, people lean into the idea that someone
might know what they're doing. And you very much got

(15:05):
that impressive impression from Willis and Laxon yesterday and the
moves they're making as much as they can around what's
unfolding in front of us. Anyway, she's with us. After
seven point.

Speaker 1 (15:13):
Thirty, the newsmakers and the personalities, the big names talk
to Mike the Mic asking breakfast with Bailey's real estate
altogether better across residential, commercial and rural news dogs head
been You know how some.

Speaker 2 (15:27):
People get and some people don't. So Macron, according to
Mashie Jules and Cyprus today, he is meeting the Cypriot president.
He's meeting the great Prime Minister. It's all to do
with the war, of course, and he's sending ships into
the Strait Upomers to escort through. So in other words,
he's stepping up at a time when people need to
step up. Meantime, Star has not even left the country
and he's busy arguing on the phone with Trump. Anyway.

(15:48):
Catherine Field shortly back home in the meantime at twenty
three minutes away from Seven City Council. Listen in christ
Church has come up with the idea of releasing partially
treated sewage into the ocean. This is all the result
of this Bromley wastewater mess. Of course, the concern is
over aquaculture, the potential and neurovirus outbreaks. Ben Winters, as
director of a Roman New Zealand and Aquaculture New Zealand
Member and as with has been good morning to you.

Speaker 11 (16:09):
Good morning Mike.

Speaker 2 (16:10):
This is animals. This is animals v people though, isn't it.
I mean, if you're in Bromley and you put up
with a stench for months on and and you're sick
of it, you'd probably go with the sewage in the water,
wouldn't you.

Speaker 11 (16:21):
My first things thanks having me on the show. I
would be putting my hand up being a local resident.
I mean obviously we're in the Bombley area as well. Yeah. Look,
I can feel for the disgrunted residents. As I say,
we've got our factory, we're employing sixty five locally. We
do put up for that stench as well. Unfortunately Bromley
has been tagged with that odor for some time. But

(16:42):
does you know by pumping sewage raw sewage. Is it
going to be treated into Pegas's Bay? Is that the
answer is that just going to cause another major issue.
And of course with greenland muscles on our doorstep, in
our backyard, which would potentially become very contaminated.

Speaker 2 (16:58):
Does it depend in any way shape form, how they
do it treated, partially treated, how much, et cetera, or not.

Speaker 11 (17:05):
To be honest, we don't want to see any sewage
in any form, filtered, drawering, you name it. It does
not need to go into pieces bay. This could be
a national disaster. Aquaculture is a big part of our
primary industry and to see just to turn the taps
on would be economic disaster.

Speaker 2 (17:21):
And when we say aquaculture, so when you say green muscles,
this is farmed muscles. This is not just the natural
habitat per se.

Speaker 11 (17:29):
No, Mike, We've got eight farms in the surrounding Banks Peninsula,
ranging from Port Levy right through to Mens's Bay Squally Base.
So we've got eight farms in the area. So approximately
one year we can harvest up to two thousand and
ten of live muscles. Aquaculture, but also it spills into
the fishing industry as well, I mean Littleton is littered
with fishing boats going out daily, So look at that's effected.

(17:52):
Then that it's going to spill into the fishing industry
as well.

Speaker 2 (17:55):
What about the business of Look they did it at
mower Point. I mean, I know, not deliberately, but nevertheless,
is the difference between Pegasus and the cook straight in
terms of how the nature would deal with it?

Speaker 11 (18:08):
Obviously, cooks straight to a large area. We're in a
very congested area. I mean, Peggas's Bay is right on
our doorstep. We're only a few kilometers away. They're coming
up all these scientific ferries where the current's going to go.
But we're in christ Church, we get the predominant easterly one,
so of course we're right in the firing line of
the Pegas's Bay outlet.

Speaker 2 (18:30):
Where does this go? I mean, is this going to happen?
Or are we still in the throes of scrapping about it?

Speaker 11 (18:35):
Yeah, good question, Mike. Look, we only just heard about
it like late last week. Is it going to happen?
This is the big question Mark. We've invited Phil to
come and see us personally. We'd love to take them
through our new factory. We've just invested in. We've got
obviously our new muscle boat. We'd love to fail to
come out and taste the fresh greenland muscles, which we
do with our clients on a regular basis. So look,

(18:57):
it's all here say at the moment, but obviously this
is our main bread and butter. We got pretty stirred up.
So I got pretty active on the on the media
channels over the weekend, and I do appreciate the time,
and I worry this will never happen.

Speaker 2 (19:08):
I wish you well. We'll still in touch. Ben Winters
and Film's a good guy filming the Mayor Christian's film major.
Of course, I've Ben Winter's out of his director of Aroman,
New Zealand. It's just quickly on the war, twenty minutes
away from seven. Trump's furious and rightly so so. Israel
bombed the Iranian oil. Now I don't know whether they
weren't supposed to do that or not, or they did

(19:31):
it without you know, who knows how that happened. But anyway,
you saw the pictures yesterday. The problem with burning oil
is Americans look at that and go, geez, that's a
lot of oil going up and smoking. I wonder I'm
paying five bucks a gallon, and so the White House
and a ropeable with Israel. There's a new Daily Mail
JL poll out Jail Partner's poll out this morning. His

(19:51):
approval rating Trump's is now down to forty four, which
is a four point drop since last week. So all
of this plays into the how long can he hold
out before he blinks? Nineteen to two The.

Speaker 1 (20:04):
Mic Hosking Breakfast Full Show podcast on iHeartRadio powered by News.

Speaker 4 (20:09):
Talks it be.

Speaker 2 (20:10):
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(20:32):
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games like do you think labor are regretting closing Marsden point.

Speaker 4 (21:05):
I don't know.

Speaker 2 (21:05):
They'll never admit it publicly. Peter's has been all over
it for the ensuing period of time and it's it's
a mistake, There's no question it's a mistake. But they
closed that and then close down the oil and gas
industry and Taranaki as well. Mike the new said government
postponing field tax heights is something they were going to run.
Look Thomas Coglin, I think it was him. It was
at the press conference yesterday. He was drawing a bow

(21:26):
that was so long. I'm surprised the bow didn't break
and snap them in the face. This is next year
it's next year, for god's sake. They haven't even addressed
the possibility of the legislation yet, so let's just tie
ho for a couple of moments. And if we get
to September or October and the war still going and
oil's one hundred and ninety seven thousand dollars a barrel,

(21:49):
then we'll talk about it then. But in the meantime,
nothing's happening.

Speaker 13 (21:51):
Fourteen to two International correspondence with Ends and Eye Insurance,
Peace of mind for New Zealand business.

Speaker 2 (21:58):
Now in France, Capital Field, Very good morning to you.
Good morning, make very ugly on the stock market, but
I think from what we're seeing this morning, it might
settle a little bit today. And yet G seven ministers
have been meeting, so it's all go.

Speaker 8 (22:10):
It is a very volatile day on the stock market.
You know, stock markets were down, but you're not done.
A lot of a bit across the board, less than
one percent, oil prices surging, oil still above one hundred
dollars a barrel. Yeah, we had the G seven Finance
minister's meeting. They were meeting to discuss the possible release

(22:31):
of stockpiles of oil. Now, let's not forget that European
Union in particular obliges all its nations to have ninety
days emergency stocks of oil. There wasn't an idea that
by releasing these it would stabilize the market, but they
decided against that for the time being. So all eyes
will then be on here in parents on Tuesday, when

(22:54):
there's going to be again a meeting on the sidelines
of an energy conference that's going on here. G seven
energy minastis will be meeting to decide whether they're going
to again release those stockpiles, So you keep an eye
on that. One might because there is a lot of oil.
The Americans are really pressuring the Europeans to release those

(23:15):
reserves as we're starting to see prices at the pump
really edge up.

Speaker 2 (23:19):
Yeah, I can't work out what you guys are more
worried about. I mean, obviously oil is an issue for
everyone around the world, but I think gases through the roof,
isn't it.

Speaker 8 (23:27):
It is going through the roof. But on the one hand,
we've had the Ukraine War for a long time going on,
and in the past the LNG France meticular is buying
that from the Russians, so they're resource now and they
buy a lot of that from the Norwegians, so it
is going up, but they're not as badly squeezed as

(23:48):
say when it comes to oil. When it comes to
looking at what's going through the street of horn Moves.

Speaker 2 (23:53):
What's the vibe on Macron? Because I'm looking at Starmar
and he seems an ep to me. But Macron's out
and he's supposing you have legitly has been in press
Ris and Cypress needs out there. And then you've got
some of your ships moving and he's talking about opening
up the straight up for moves with some military escorts.
Is he reading this well and this will play well
for him?

Speaker 8 (24:11):
Oh, it will play enormously well for him. Let's not forget.

Speaker 2 (24:15):
France has got.

Speaker 8 (24:17):
Probably these strongest and the only nuclear armed military in Europe.
So he's got a lot. He's got a lot in
the cupboard that could be used. Just in the last
couple of hours he has been on board that French
aircraft carrier then nuclear powered Child Gaul, and of course
that is in the East Mediterranean, it's nearby to Crete.

(24:38):
It is not just that an aircraft carrier, as we
all know, it is a strike group which has also
got other frigates alongside it. Now in Spain has sent
some frigates Ithaly and of course the Dutch. What he's
saying is and it's pretty much what all of the
Europeans are saying, is that they are just there to
protect their interest, their assets, to protect their citizen And

(25:00):
I mean if we look for example at Emmanuel Macrarar,
he spoke yesterday with the Uranian president and he said, look,
we're not joining in with Israel and America on this.
We are at the sidelines. We will defend our allies,
we'll defend our assets in the era, but we're not
getting involved.

Speaker 14 (25:17):
So let's not forget.

Speaker 8 (25:18):
France also has security arrangements with other areas that in
the golf your golf states, and let's not forget he
was in Cypress, which was your attack last week. So
he's saying that when it comes to straight upon this.
He was a little bit more pulling back a bit
on that. He was saying only when everything settles down.
He wasn't saying, you know, we're going to go in

(25:39):
there next week, We're going to make sure that all
the oil gets flown out. He was very clear saying
it would be a European force and only once everything
comes down, I know.

Speaker 2 (25:48):
One shot down, another missile over into you know, Eurozone.
Territory of turkisheer space. As you're worried that this thing
could spread geographically.

Speaker 8 (25:57):
It is worried, not so much that you know obviously
of course Turkey and NATO remember there is a concern
that everyone has to go and defend Turkey.

Speaker 11 (26:06):
What they are.

Speaker 8 (26:07):
Concerned about are attacks here in Europe that would be
carried out by proxies for Iran. So let's just look
at the last couple of days, US embassy and Oslo,
Norway was hit by an explosion. Police say, that's possible
terror motive there. And then what early Monday in the
eastern Belgian city of Liege there was an attack on

(26:27):
a synagogue there. No one was injured or killed, but
of course you're seeing that and just wandering around Paris
today you do notice a lot more security. It's not
just transport, hubs and churches and synagogue, so you just
feel that everyone is there ready wondering is there going
to be another attack here sometime soon.

Speaker 2 (26:46):
It's an edgy old world, doesn't Catherine appreciate it very much?
A number of texts saying the same thing. Mikey Nomaston
Point was not government owned. That's not the point. I'll
come back and explain that yet again. In a moment
nine minutes away from seven.

Speaker 1 (26:57):
The micsking breakfast with Range of a sport SV News,
Tom's ed V quickly.

Speaker 2 (27:02):
If we forget Marsden Point, Yes, was privately owned. We
all know that we had the conversation over and over
and over at the time. The government could have stepped
in in the national interest when the company said we're
it's too expensive, we want to get out, We're done.
The government could have stepped in in the national interest.
They chose not to. That was Megan Wood's Minister of Energy. Mike,
can you ask the next minister why the Europeans have

(27:23):
ninety days fuel reserves? Well, it's not fuel reserves, it's oil,
which is different to what we have, which is important,
refined petroleum. We've got twenty five I'll ask Nikola that
which is with us? Later, five minutes away from seven,
all the.

Speaker 1 (27:36):
Ins and the outs, it's the bizz with business timer,
take your business productivity to the next level.

Speaker 2 (27:43):
Yes, so oil this morning back below one hundred. So
if you just woken up and you were freaking out
about yesterday. It was a bit of an apparition for
now anyway, So under one hundred of barrels, so we've
had the G seven meeting. They're not triggering. They were
looking at three hundred million barrels. They're not going to
do that for now. But countries are reacting already. South
Korea they putting a price cap on the petrol products.
They may also increase the country's one hundred and thirteen

(28:05):
billion dollar financial market stabilization program if need be. They
also warned that any petrol companies attempting to take advantage
of the crisis will be quote unquote dealt with. That's
sort of outbusion of the comments Commission. I'm assuming Thailand
capping the price of diesel for fifteen days. Vietnam, the
finance ministry says they're putting together a plan.

Speaker 14 (28:25):
Cool.

Speaker 2 (28:26):
In the Philippines, they've brought in a full day working week,
so public offices will close on the fifth day. So
it's very muldoon. You remember cardless days, You old enough
to remember cardless days. Muldoon will stay at home. Universities
in Bangladesh are currently shut as of last night to
conserve energy. So it's a fascinating thing. And watching the
press conference yesterday with Willis and Luxen, you've got some

(28:47):
adults in the room, think God, because those sort of
questions were being asked, and there will be interesting or
fascinating to watch the way people handle this around the
world and what they were trying to explain as clearly
as they possible could as we could do a whole
bunch of things if you wanted to. We could cap
the price of petrol tomorrow. And who's paying for that?
We're all paying for that. And when that stops, then

(29:08):
what happens. Well, we've just added to the debt and
we're already paying nine billion dollars a year in interest only.
Do you want to add to that now? Do you
want to panic immediately? And one of the most remarkable
things for me is our reaction is so visceral. After
eight or nine days. This isn't Ukraine. It'll be over
in a month or so. They've said that, and I

(29:28):
believe it currently. And so the moment's something that we're
all it's like we've never seen this before. It's like
the market's never dropped and oils never gone up. It's
like we're goldfish in a bowl. It's the weirdest thing.

Speaker 15 (29:38):
But more shortly credible, compelling.

Speaker 1 (29:42):
The breakfast show you can't bess. It's the Mic Hosking
Breakfast with a Vita, Retirement Communities, Life Your Way News,
togs Head Bell.

Speaker 2 (29:50):
Seven past seven, So we're after the races here as
epic fury arrives on the markets and up ends a
few key we saber accounts. Our market fell over three
percent yesterday. We're down four and a half of the
month of Dow Jones is three a half down over
the past five days. Mark Lister is investment director for
Craig's Investment Partners and is back. Will this Mark, very
good morning to you.

Speaker 11 (30:07):
Good morning, Mike.

Speaker 2 (30:09):
Will today be a little more settled given yesterday seemed
to be an apparition in a series of bad days
because we're in the middle of a war or not.

Speaker 16 (30:17):
I think on the local sheer market, it will be
a little more settled. Remember that we needed to play
a bit of catch up because of what we saw
on Friday night in the United States when we were closed.
So New Zealand and Australia and Japan woke up on
Monday morning and played a bit of catch up overnight.
It's actually been a little more subdued. Oil prices obviously

(30:39):
got up to one hundred and twenty odd. Now they're
back in the nineties. So that's pleasing the US markets down,
but only slightly similar story in the UK and Europe.
So it might still be a difficult day, but I
suspect we will hold up better than we did yesterday.

Speaker 2 (30:55):
Is it all driven by oil? Literally? Oil price of
oil to stock market moves with it.

Speaker 16 (31:01):
I believe it is, yes, But the price of oil
is pretty important for the economy globally. Oil is a
component in just about everything we buy. So people are
looking at those oil prices. They don't know when they'll
come back down, they don't know when the disruption will
be relieved, and they're starting to think about inflation and

(31:22):
what the impact is there. What does that mean for
interest rates and therefore what does it mean for growth
and asset prices.

Speaker 2 (31:28):
Which was my second part of my question. So oil specific,
you can see the price of oil. What you can't
see is the price of uncertainty of people freaking out
too much.

Speaker 16 (31:36):
No, I don't think they are. Look it is something
we haven't seen in a while, and the disruption looks
like it could hang around for longer than we would like.
So remember sheer markets have had a pretty good run,
whether it's Japan or emerging markets or Europe. They were
all up pretty strongly if you go back a week

(31:57):
or two ago, so they probably have had a little
bit further to forward having had such a good run,
and markets are very sensitive about what we'll see on
the inflation front and how central banks will respond.

Speaker 2 (32:09):
What's your time frame trigger in terms of the length
of the war before the RB needs to do something,
say something, and we all start to take this a
little more seriously than perhaps we are at the moment.

Speaker 16 (32:20):
Well, I'm watching next week's announcements really closely. You've got
three big central banks next week. You've got the Reserve
Bank of Australia, the US Federal Reserve, and the European
Central Bank.

Speaker 14 (32:31):
So watch all of them.

Speaker 16 (32:33):
Very closely and see how they're reacting, what they're thinking about.
Our Reserve Bank has a luxury of not meeting until
the eighth of April, which is about a month away.
If this is still ongoing when they meet in April,
then that won't be looking God, so hopefully we do
see things settle down between now and then.

Speaker 11 (32:52):
I still think they're.

Speaker 16 (32:53):
Firmly on hold. But the longer it goes on, the
more upward pressure there is on inlation, and the more
potential downward pressure there is on growth. So it puts
them in a really awkward position, and it obviously isn't
what the government wants to see with an election looming either.

Speaker 2 (33:09):
That is true. Appreciate your expertise as always. Make Listener,
investment director for Craig's Investment Partners, ten minutes past seven.
Part of the problem, of course, of having no real
ability to work out what happens next is to what
extent we start to guess and make it up. So
the oil story you've just heard, we're back below one
hundred so and oil touches everything economically, of course, doesn't it.
So what's happening at the bows of Simon perim As,
the CEO Tomo Fuel? Good morning, Good morning, Mike. I

(33:32):
don't want to sound facetious about this, but is this
good for business at the moment or not? Are we
into this in lining up and getting as much petrol
as we can get our hands on well, we've.

Speaker 17 (33:41):
Certainly seen an increase in demand so over the last
week was seen of fifteen to twenty percent increase and
people filling up. They've obviously read the headlines and filling
up a little bit and often if they can. But
is it good for business the high fuel prices go.
I don't think it's good for anyone because it just
stampings to mart.

Speaker 2 (33:57):
Do you worry? The ComCom was instructed by the Finance
Minister yesterday to keep a BDI on how you guys behave?
Are you behaving?

Speaker 11 (34:05):
Oh?

Speaker 17 (34:05):
Certainly, And I think that's the ComCom feel that they
need to. Then I welcome it, and I think it's
a good opportunity to look at the entire supply chain
that imports wholesale and even the retail pump price because
I think New Zealand is in the cusp of a
very fragile economic recovery, so we don't need gold plated
pricing through the supply chain.

Speaker 2 (34:22):
A million texts so far going, the oil hasn't come through,
the ships are still at sea. Why am I paying
so much more? So quickly, the answer is what well the.

Speaker 17 (34:33):
Industry price is on a replacement cost basis? But for
the likes of what Tima, we buy on a wiki
basis and we wash through that product through our system
every sort of three to four days, so you know,
we're buying the more expensive product now. And I guess
when you've got a short sharp increase like this, there's
no escaping the higher fuel prices.

Speaker 4 (34:53):
Yeah.

Speaker 2 (34:54):
Do you concur with the Prime minister supply at the moment,
what we've got in the country, what's on the sea
at the moment?

Speaker 17 (34:59):
Where okay, yeah, I agree, I think we're okay. It's
not a supply ish at the moment. What we've got
is a price issue because there's a lot of geopolitical
risk priced into the market.

Speaker 2 (35:10):
Right, what's the byte point for punters where they can't
afford it and will catch a bus?

Speaker 17 (35:17):
I think that will get towards the three dollars three
dollars fifty mark, and I think on diesel about the
same and that's where economic activity will stop and then
people will just look at alternate and opportunities to transport.
So I think once it gets over that three dollar mark,
that's that's that's a point where things really do get tough.

Speaker 2 (35:37):
I think we need to say calm don't we, because
I mean, what you saw with oil yesterday at one
twenty and you're seeing it this morning at ninety nine.
I mean things change rapidly within a day. Ninety nine
is not one twenty or anywhere close to it.

Speaker 8 (35:49):
Is it? No?

Speaker 17 (35:50):
Absolutely, it dropped quite significantly overnight Brent crude, the Singapore
fats pricing that did close twenty dollars a barrel higher,
but obviously that market closed before the G seven country's
announcement about being ready to act if necessary around the
strategic reserve. So it is volatile and I think we've
only really been in this for a week and a half,

(36:11):
so it's short as sharp, and you know, we just
need to take it every day that it comes.

Speaker 2 (36:15):
I know everybody wants answers and they've all got the
questions crystal ball stuff. We don't know, do we? I mean,
isn't that the honest answer?

Speaker 17 (36:21):
We don't know, absolutely, And it's these commentators saying where
it's going to go. Then they should be doing oil
futures because they'll be making more money than commentating on
where it's going to go.

Speaker 2 (36:31):
Well, said Simon Perum, who's the CEO at why Timo Mike.
I appreciate you confident about the oil price issue. I
don't share your confidence. Damage refineries, export infrastructure. Make this
a prolonged issue. It's not just a shipping logistics issue.
The crackspread will be the next biggest issue, and we'll
see this manifest and shortages of middle distillate diesel and
jet fields. Cargoes of these two products already being diverted

(36:51):
from Africa Duasia while en route. The issue has a
lot of nuance. Appreciate it. Larry fourteen past.

Speaker 1 (37:00):
King Breakfast Full Show podcast on iHeartRadio, Howard By News.

Speaker 4 (37:04):
Talks that be.

Speaker 2 (37:06):
Nikola Willis after seventh thirty Zach Griffith. I'll explain more later.
He's in for a song and a chat after right.
I think you're going to like him. Seventeen past seven.
Your research out this morning suggests daily multi vitamins could
slow biological aging. So this trial found older adults on
multi vitamin showed slower changes to the DNA based epigenetic
clock now. Lisa Timidinger is a professor at the Center
for Public Health Research and Nutrition at MASSY, and as

(37:28):
will this lista morning to you. Good morning, this makes sense.

Speaker 18 (37:35):
I guess. So it's adding to a small but growing
body of of research suggesting that there's some value in
multi vitamins.

Speaker 2 (37:46):
My argument, My argument would be that if it counterbalances
things that you aren't getting throughout your life, then that
will inevitably help you. That it makes sense, wouldn't it.

Speaker 18 (37:58):
It makes sense. But it's not a magic pill that's
going to mean that you don't have to eat your
vegetables and do all those other things that we say
are healthy, and you probably won't notice the effects. The
effects so far are really tiny. And also it's only
changing markers of health risk. There's no evidence yet that

(38:20):
it actually helps you live longer. It's just changing things
that we think are associated with living longer.

Speaker 2 (38:26):
So it's pretty preliminary, right, And so this is where
we're into this longevity space and the world's fascinated by
this at the moment. If you went further in the
sort of research and you looked at people not on
multi's but on specific targeted vitamins to replace things they
weren't getting, is there a rich vein of research there
to be had?

Speaker 18 (38:47):
You know, I think we've been trying to do these
We've been trying to find the magic pill and the
magic diet for decades, and you know, mostly this sort
of research doesn't pan out to show really major important effect.
So all of it combines to show that, you know,
eating well, making sure we have lots of vitamins and
minerals that are important as good, that we haven't found

(39:09):
the magic pill.

Speaker 2 (39:10):
Yeah, but the problem with vitamins and minerals and all
of that sort of stuff is, and we know this
why we have an obesity epidemic is most people don't
know what they're eating or don't care, or accommodation of both,
so they afford it.

Speaker 18 (39:24):
Well, it could, but vitamins are still quite expensive, aren't they.
So what would be good is if you know, we
could all afford to eat healthy fruits and vegetables and
lean meats and whole grains and all of those things.
These these multi vitamins aren't particularly cheap either. And the
formulations that you buy in the supermarket, they're all different.

(39:44):
If you look at the backs of the bottles, they're
all slightly different. So we don't really know what we're
getting and we don't know for sure what they're doing.

Speaker 2 (39:52):
All right, appreciate at least at least a timiding. I
don't think it was a costing that the research did.
It was whether they were affective or not. Mike Buyer
tears like, look, I'm onto this more. Shortly seven twenty.

Speaker 1 (40:05):
The Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show podcast on iHeartRadio how
It By News Talks EP.

Speaker 2 (40:13):
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(41:16):
co dot inz PASKI now sevent twenty four I have
Luxon one media zero after no small effort on the
media's part to drum up this crisis on a bad poll.
So two important points and we can put this whole
stupid thing to bet one. Luxon doesn't have a coup brewing.
Despite all the all the conspiratorialists' best efforts, there is
no one counting numbers. The nearest they managed to get

(41:37):
as Christopher Bishop it was more interested in being India
over the weekend than lining up a new job. Also,
we don't vote for prime ministers. They are not presidents.
We vote for parties and policies and results. If you
like national, you don't not vote national because the leader
isn't to your taste. And two, the revelation from the
Courier Pole that on one hand they tried to tell
you yesterday how unpopular Luson was with his net negative

(41:59):
rating of minus nineteen. Turns out Bishops about as bad
at minus fourteen, Erica Stanford's minus sixteen. Everyone's underwater, Winston Seemore, Hepkins,
No one's in positive territory. And that tells you a
couple of things as well. We live in an era
where likability is irrelevant because we hate everyone post COVID,
We've never got over the funk. So as much as
you want to bang on about luxA not connecting, according

(42:21):
to the numbers, no one connects. It's all over the world.
Trump's underwater starms underwater, Albanese is underwater, Macron's underwater Mens
who runs New South Wales is popular currently because of
his handling a Bondai. Apart from that pickup politician, we
hate them all in the likeability numbers, the likes of
which we see on the tv I poles. If Hepkins
was fifty and Luxon was twenty, that's an issue, but

(42:43):
they're not. They're both stuck at about twenty and have
been forever, and all the others are below that. That's
why none of this matters. In the past, the poles
have shown an answer, a suitor, a name that drives
a bit of fizz. We have no such names.

Speaker 4 (42:56):
Now.

Speaker 2 (42:56):
You can debate the merits or otherwise of great leaders
with great personalities lack of them, but we are where
we are. None of the current lot will go down
as Churchill's to paraphrase Trump and Churchill, by the way,
for a lot of the time wasn't popular either. Irony
of ironies. So let's see this nonsense for what it is.
We're voting on the economy, not showman. There is no coupe.

(43:17):
This is but one pole, mountain, molehill, waste of time.
Let's all try and do a lot better. There's too
much at stake. Posking, Mike, how are you liking the
evs and Tesla Graham? Here's my problem with that.

Speaker 6 (43:33):
I will not.

Speaker 2 (43:37):
Deny that I was on the drive site on the
Herald this morning looking at EV's. I can't deny that.
And I was looking at pol I was looking at polestars.
Do you know what you get a poll star for
twenty twenty twenty two Polestar with about thirty thousand k
thirty grand. Now do you want to spend thirty grand

(43:58):
and cover yourself for the next couple of months. Then
of course you won't get a resol value on it.
But I do have one car park spirit home, and
I thought that there's any way if I can get
a car pass, Kadie, it could be this. I could
manufacture a crisis and go, we need this, this is
important right now. And I just might be across the

(44:20):
line on this. My other problem and she'll point this
out because she's brighter than me. Is I only travel
five k's to work each day, five there and five backs,
so I don't actually use a lot of peach jog,
not with the meniscus, Glenn, but nice thought anyway. News
in a couple of moments, then Finance Minister Nikola willis,
you're a newstalk.

Speaker 1 (44:38):
ZB no fluff, just facts and fierce debate, the Mic
Hosking Breakfast with Ranger of a Sport SV the Ultimate
Performance SUV News togs V.

Speaker 2 (44:52):
If you're going to like Zach Griffith, a young man
going places, I'll tell you a story later. And he's
bringing a guitar and he's going to sing us a song.
So he's from saying to n Known, which is a
place that we've never been to. You must know. But
that is amazing still to come twenty three minutes away
from it to the epic fury, to economic workings here
at the bottom of the world. The Commerce Commission's been
asked to keep an eye out for petrol price gouging.

(45:12):
Ministerial out of site committee has been set up fuel
stocks both here and on the water scene. Fine Nicola
willis as the Finance Minister and is with us. Good morning,
Good morning mate. I watched what you were trying to
do with the Prime Minister yesterday afternoon. Do you think
you got your message across?

Speaker 9 (45:27):
Yes, I did.

Speaker 19 (45:28):
I did.

Speaker 9 (45:28):
We very much of the view that this is a
time that calls for call heads. We could act in
haste and regret at leisure. We need to take decisions
consistent with the national interest and to have a strong
apprish pstful management and ensure that we are leading our
response to potential fuel security issues and the implications that
will have to the economy. We're doing that, we set

(45:51):
out for how we're doing it.

Speaker 2 (45:52):
I gave a list of countries that have reacted already
in fuel caps and prices and discounts in four day
weeks and universities being closed and very as parts of Asia.
How much pressure do you feel will come on you
for people who want a quick fix solution to their
problem of this drags.

Speaker 9 (46:10):
Well, we're very conscious that the price at the pump
is something that impacts not every New Zealander but also
our freight costs and costs across the economy. In the
first instance, however, we do need to see what unfolds internationally,
whether of course stocks are released but through the International
Energy Agency, what responses the US and others have. We've

(46:32):
seen you oil price has spiked but then come back again,
and so we're conscious that we need to understand what
that picture looks like before we overreact, and that any
money that we throw at this problem right now is
money that we have to borrow. And so we need
to be prudent about New Zealand's the school position.

Speaker 2 (46:50):
And do you think people get that.

Speaker 9 (46:52):
I think people understand that there are international events unfolding
at past and they wouldn't want to see the government
having a knee jerk reaction to be considered and clear
about the trade offs and opportunity costs that would exist
with any immediate response we had.

Speaker 2 (47:07):
Given this is early days, and given how fluid it is,
and we won't name names, but there was a person
questioning desperately yesterday for specifics and numbers and facts and stats.
Does that mentality worry you that we go into this
blind panic of guessing and second guessing, if not third
guessing what we can't possibly know.

Speaker 9 (47:28):
Yeah, look, I think these islanders will be realistic, which
is of course I can't tell you right now exactly
what this means for the precise inflation number in the
next quarter, nor can I tell you what it means
for GDP growth forecasts for the coming year. Because there
are many events unfolding at pace. We do have an
obligation to share information transparently with New Zealanders, to let

(47:49):
them know of the potential scenarios that can play out
and to assure them that we're positioning ourselves to respond
sensibly and we'll keep doing that.

Speaker 2 (47:57):
Are you comfortable? And how did we come to the
twenty five days plus whatever is on the water by
way of fuel supply When places like Europe have thirty
plus high thirties.

Speaker 9 (48:07):
In fact, well, that minimum stockholding obligation came into fourth
in twenty twenty five, and at the moment we have
around fifty days fuel combined onshore and very close to
arriving on the water, and fuel companies are not reporting
issues with supply chains currently, they're reporting healthy stock levels
and shipments preceding as scheduled. We're also members of the

(48:29):
International Energy Agency and that requires us to hold fuel
stock's equivalent to ninety days of demand, and we meet
that both through the domestic stockholding are just outlined, but
also through the use of stock reservation agreements that we
have with various suppliers and other countries. So we meet
that ninety day obligation that other countries have in a
combination of ways.

Speaker 2 (48:50):
The meeting the G seven finance ministers overnight, they didn't
pull the trigger on that is that in its own
way reassuring.

Speaker 9 (48:56):
Well, it tells us that they still think that there
are options. And of course the US Energy Secretary has
noted that one tanker has transited the straits that they
are looking to restore lows within weeks, not months. All
democracies around the world have an interest in fuel security
and not seeing the price of oil continued a spike,

(49:17):
and so we do expect partners around the world will
act sensibly in response to these issues.

Speaker 2 (49:23):
Do what level of I don't know, optimism do you
have that Trump, Hegseth, et cetera. Are right, this is
a three to six week deal and we'll be talking
about this in the past tenth in July.

Speaker 9 (49:35):
I wouldn't want to speculate. I'm conscious there's so much
information they have that I don't have. What I know
sitting down here in New Zealand is that looking at
a world with countries at war is disturbing, and we
can see that we're not immune from the impacts. This
may not a war, but we have a great interest
in peace and normal international relations resuming because we simply

(50:00):
can't make ourselves immune from the international economic effect.

Speaker 2 (50:04):
Indeed, we cannot. What was sort of missed yesterday as
you came up with your forecasts for GDP, forget the
war for a moment. At three percent this year, three
percent next year, that's about as good as we get,
isn't it. I mean, it's a good number, and let's
celebrate it. But that's I mean, that's that's peak times,
isn't it.

Speaker 9 (50:21):
Yes, Ironically, I got my preliminary budget forecasts last week
and they showed that we were running ahead of schedule.
You'll remember I released forecasts in December. Well, ever, thing's
been looking better since then, as those numbers had transpired,
with the on track to getting the books back in
balance sooner and net debt would be peaking at a
lower level. That was then this is now. Of course,

(50:45):
events internationally we have an impact on those forecasts, but
I simply shared that information to say, well, look, New
Zealand's coming into this a lot stronger than could have
otherwise been the case. We faced into these challenges from
a good position.

Speaker 2 (50:57):
What's Q four next week? Which comes out? Do you reckon?
If Q three was one point one? Is Q four
closesh I've been.

Speaker 9 (51:04):
Really reluctant to guess the quarterly GDP numbers because they've
been so volatile in recent times, and the Treasury, the
Reserve Bank, other bank forecasters haven't picked those numbers correctly.
Treasury are forecasting a zero point seven percent print for
the fourth quarter, but we'll wait and see.

Speaker 2 (51:23):
Okay, it's redundant, but I'll ask it anyway, because people
still raise at Marsden point, was that a catastrophic mistake.

Speaker 9 (51:31):
Well, it is the case that not having oil refinery
here does decrease resilience. It's also the case that was
decisions made under the policy settings of the last government.
There's no point looking back in anger. We are where
we are, and as I say, we do have these
minimum stockholding obligations and good arrangements with countries around the

(51:54):
world that allow us to assure New Zealanders there is
no immediate threat to fuel security.

Speaker 2 (51:58):
Appreciate your time as always, Nikola will as Finance Minister.
At no point looking back in anger. That's pretty much
what New Zealand First has done for the last three years.
Of course, they won't be letting that one go anytime soon.
Sixteen to two The.

Speaker 1 (52:10):
Vike Asking Breakfast Full Show podcast on iHeartRadio powered by
the News Talks.

Speaker 2 (52:15):
At b Caatie's just filled up with ninety eight It
was two eighty nine a liter. It's a very good
price given the Gaspe's got it on average at three
six weeks from now. Mike, last week you said four No,
I didn't what I said, and I was quoting Hegseth,
it was four to six weeks. The only other number
I've heard is eight. That was also Hegseth. Mike Nichola

(52:36):
Willis demonstrated a very good understanding of the matters discussed
issue the next Prime Minister. Mike clear coherent and articulate
explanation for Nikola. This is why I implore you in
interesting times to listen to these things live. So the
press conference yesterday post cabinet was forty eight minutes long
or thereabouts. You learn more in that time than you

(52:57):
will ever learn in a news bulletin, because the news
bulletins clipped up where their own agenda attached to it.
If you watch the whole thing unfold, you saw a
couple of very sensible, pragmatic practitioners telling you how things
are to the best of their understanding, what their plan was,
to the best of their understanding and information they have
at hand, and a reassurance that broadly speaking, things are

(53:19):
under control. And you came away reassured that there were
some adults in the room. Interesting two reports I've read.
One it was written before this thing started by the
National Intelligence Council. Their argument that a ground invasion may
not be enough to ask the regime. The regime, they

(53:40):
would argue, our come back to this later is so
embedded that there's nothing that the Americans in the Israelis
are going to do that's going to wipe that out.
What I'm assuming is going to happen now. And if
you're following the aviation side of the equation, some of
the big boys are landing in the British airbases, so
you're talking b ones, B twos and B fifty twos,
and once they leave and go, and I'm assuming this
is what heg Seth refers to when he talks about

(54:01):
ramping up. When these guys fly and they start doing
some bunker busting stuff, that's when it's all on and
we'll be presumably wrapped up in the next couple of weeks.
Other piece I read was a thing a company called
Dinacom Tankers, which is owned by a controversial Greek called George.
He's running his ship through her moves at the moment,
so to say the straight up her mercies closed is

(54:22):
not true. It has ships going through it, just not
a lot of them. His ships turn off their transponders
at one end. They disappear. Then they suddenly turn them
back on at the other end where they fill up
with oil, and then they turn them off again they
go back through. This of course, comes at quite a
lot of dollars. A smaller ship which is one of
his called Athena, that's seventy two thousand tons, that went

(54:46):
through on Saturday night, loaded up in Bahrain, went back
a couple of days later. He's got a bigger ship
called the Polar which is one hundred and fifty thousand tons.
That's one of the largest tankers able to use. Because
you've got to remember her merses only I can't remember
what it is.

Speaker 14 (54:58):
Forty eight k's wide.

Speaker 12 (54:59):
Of whatever shppinglanes only three case exactly, so that's.

Speaker 2 (55:02):
One of the biggest ships going to be able to
get through it. Anyway, Freight rates are running at seven
hundred and fifteen This is US dollars running at seven
hundred and fifteen thousand dollars a day, so you've got
to be prepared to pay for it, and people are
of course. Obviously seafarers have the right in their international
agreements not to sale, but if they do, it's under
what they call warlike operations, so enhanced protections. There is

(55:26):
one hundred percent bonus for staff, so if you work,
you get twice you pay, and if you work and
then get blown up, compensation for death or disability is
doubled as a result of that. So there is oil moving,
not a lot of it, But like in all things
in life, if there's an opportunity, if there's a dollar
to be made, if there's a gap in the market,
somebody in this case, George is going to take advantage

(55:49):
either way.

Speaker 1 (55:50):
The Hosking breakfast with Bailey's Real Estate news.

Speaker 2 (55:54):
Dogs they'd be it's even away from a National Intelligence Council,
confirmed by the Washington Post, so they had a look
before this strike what was the likelihood and what would
need to be done to get rid of the clerics
and clean that place out. So the report was completed
one week before outline succession scenarios from either a narrowly
targeted campaign against Iran's leaders or a broader assault against

(56:16):
its leadership and government institutions. In both cases, the clerical
of military establishment would respond to the killing of the
supreme leader by following protocols designed to preserve continuity of power,
which is exactly what we've seen unfold. Prospect of Iran's
fragmented opposition taking control of the country was described as unlikely.
So that then brings in the whole people rise up
and go get them. That's the part I can never understood.

(56:37):
When Trump stood there at two thirty in the morning
Mary Lago time and said he was often running and
the people could rise up and take the country back.
I thought, well, how the hell that is that going
to happen. Then they started talking about the Kurds being
armed on the other side of the border, and you thought, okay,
so the Kurd's role in the CIA had been handing
out the weaponry for months apparently, so they jumped the border,
start going for the institutions. The people then go, wahoo,

(57:00):
got Kurds got guns. What could possibly go wrong? And
they then go and I don't know, take their country back.
That part I've still not got to. But mainly I
think now it doesn't matter because that was not what
that was about. What this is about is bombing the
the Jesus out of the place, getting rid of the clerics,
getting rid of the establishment. Something happens posts that we know,

(57:23):
not what it looks like Afghanistan. It looks like Libya,
it looks like a raq It's a mess. It may
or may not come to anything, but the Americans go
home claiming a victory. That's how I see this thing unfolding.
A woman called Susan Maloney Iranian scholar vice president at Brookings.
She says this prediction that Iran's institutions would endure stems

(57:45):
from its rigorous knowledge of the Islamic Republic. It does
not appear that the intelligence report examined are the possible scenarios,
though one sending in US ground troops, which isn't going
to happen, or arming the country's ethnic Kurds, so that
bit the report doesn't cover. So maybe the Kurds play
a role. I don't know. But all I do know

(58:06):
is that there is nothing that drives a narrative stronger
than an oil price that your voters don't like, an
economy that's not going that well, prices that are rising,
a Supreme Court that has argued you've got to hand
back hundreds of billions of dollars you weren't allowed to
take in the first place, and a general unease about
the place when you've got these things called midterms coming

(58:27):
up in the end of the year. All of that
put together focuses the mind really fast and really clearly.
And if it doesn't go well fast, you watch how
quickly they try and untangle this thing. And that's believing,
of course, and I do. And that's why Rubio said
what he said. Whether deliberately or otherwise, this thing was
driven by Israel right from the get go. They saw

(58:49):
a week point in time, they saw a president who's
trigger happy, and they said, we have never had a
better time to blow them up, and in they went.
And where this goes from here is, of course, as
we've discussed at length this morning, anyone's guess. But it
can't last long because Trump can't afford for it too.
Using a couple of moments, then Zach Griffith will introduce

(59:11):
you to some new country music talent. Next a news
talk set.

Speaker 1 (59:17):
Asking the questions others won't the mic asking breakfast with
Bailey's real estate altogether better across residential, commercial and rural
news talks head.

Speaker 20 (59:27):
Been taken start everything that matters.

Speaker 21 (59:34):
As to Marros getting class way too fast.

Speaker 2 (59:42):
But it is seven past eight to our never ending
quest to present you with the country's greatest country music talent. Today,
we're going to meet and chat with Zack Griffith. He
is self taught. He is from Nelson sort of. He
won the Gold Guitar a couple of years ago at
just eighteen. He's toured with Kaylee Bell and got a
cassign from Laney Wilson. No less, his latest single dropped
over the weekend and he's off to aus Traders because

(01:00:03):
Country Music Festival as well. Zach Griffith is with it
with us. Good morning, good morning, and good to meet
you you too, mate. So Johnny Cash is where it
all began. He was the one favorite Johnny Cash song
is what Oh.

Speaker 22 (01:00:17):
Man, it'll be hard, but I guess you can't go
far wrong with you know the staple Falsehoom Prism, ring
a Fire or prison Blues.

Speaker 14 (01:00:23):
Or all the all the classics.

Speaker 2 (01:00:24):
I woke up Sunday morning, Sunday morning, Monday morning. I
love is that Chris Christopherson or John How much do you?
You can't out country met, mate? You can't out country meet? When?
When did you get into it?

Speaker 22 (01:00:40):
And why I was about I would have been about
seven years old, so a wee while ago now, and
it was the walk the Line movie about about Johnny Cash.
You know, it was with Workmen Phoenix and Reese Witherspoon,
and I saw a snippet of that on TV and
I thought, I want to be just like that guy.
I want he's the man, And yeah, I got got
a little guitar and tried to teach myself for two

(01:01:00):
or three months, couldn't do it. Through it in the
corner and picked it back up a few months later
and I've just been playing ever since. Really just self
taught listening. Can listen, Yeah, you know you listen to.

Speaker 2 (01:01:09):
You're clearly naturally gifted though, because one thing to teach yourself,
but it's one another thing to get to where you
are now.

Speaker 14 (01:01:15):
Yeah, yeah, I guess I guess you could. Yeah I
must be. I guess.

Speaker 2 (01:01:18):
So who's who's told you along the way that actually
there's some talent there?

Speaker 14 (01:01:22):
I guess yeah.

Speaker 22 (01:01:23):
Kayleie Bell she's been a big you know, she really
has boosted boosted my confidence, especially with taking me on
that tour that she did last year. And it's it's
you know, getting the the praise from people that you
look up to, people that are doing what you want
to be doing.

Speaker 2 (01:01:36):
Is it's what I like about country music. We've known
Kayley Bell for years and everyone's nice in country music. Yeah,
have you met any pricks yet? I've met a single?

Speaker 14 (01:01:44):
Oh you have.

Speaker 8 (01:01:46):
No.

Speaker 22 (01:01:46):
Most of the time, it's good, I tell you what,
it'd be the older ones, some of the older ones. No,
everyone's pretty good. You just everyone's on common ground and.

Speaker 2 (01:01:54):
There's a camaraderie about it and they want you to
do well.

Speaker 14 (01:01:57):
That's yeah, that's all, and that's you know, that's what
you want.

Speaker 22 (01:01:59):
You want the backing from the people, and it just
makes you feel even better when you do have people.

Speaker 2 (01:02:04):
The gold guitars you went I can't remember, but its
several years ago.

Speaker 4 (01:02:07):
You went to No.

Speaker 2 (01:02:08):
X number of categories. Yeah, you sort of won them all, Yeah,
including theluding, including the gold guitar.

Speaker 14 (01:02:15):
Yeah, the big the big one.

Speaker 21 (01:02:16):
Yeah.

Speaker 2 (01:02:16):
Did that change things materially for you?

Speaker 22 (01:02:20):
Well, I think that was probably something i'd definitely been
working up to. You know, there's there's there was a
handful of country music awards around the country in the
South Island that I did and managed to win a few,
you know, over the years, and then that was the
sort of main one. So so wanting that really was
was a testament to to me and was yeah, the
thing that made me go, okay, I must be must
be doing all right, doing this thing myself.

Speaker 14 (01:02:41):
You know, I've done this all my on my own.

Speaker 2 (01:02:44):
Terms, you know, because you're still only twenty one, which
is which is still pretty young.

Speaker 14 (01:02:47):
Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, just the young man.

Speaker 2 (01:02:49):
The song that you're going to play you wrote, Yeah, yeah,
that's right. Because when I heard that, I can't conceive
of the words coming from a twenty one year old.
It's way more sophisticated than a twenty one year old's experience.
So how do you explain that?

Speaker 22 (01:03:08):
I guess country music it makes you do, it makes
you do these things. And I guess there is a
little thing with songwriting where if it's not, you know,
you try.

Speaker 14 (01:03:15):
I feel like it is.

Speaker 22 (01:03:16):
It's always easy to write something that's true to you
and something that's happened to you, but you can always
make stuff up too, and people aren't going to know
as well.

Speaker 14 (01:03:22):
But I don't know. I guess I just did the
words come out, That's just I guess.

Speaker 2 (01:03:27):
I'm just that's do you have an understanding when the words?
People will know what I mean when they hear the song,
because it's brilliant when the words come out and you
write them down. Do you think, ye know there's something
here to do?

Speaker 22 (01:03:38):
Yeah, I think, I think, I guess yeah, because you
never know. Really, it's sort of you've got to play
it to other You've got to play your song to
other people too, to sometimes get a bit of a
gauge of where you're at. But you get a fairly
good idea if you've got a good one or this one. Ye,
throw that one out of the back of So where
are you?

Speaker 2 (01:03:51):
Are you professional yet?

Speaker 18 (01:03:53):
No?

Speaker 14 (01:03:53):
I don't know. I don't know. I was out there. Yeah,
I'm nearly going to go full time with this thing,
hopefully this year.

Speaker 4 (01:03:59):
This year old.

Speaker 2 (01:04:00):
Because you've been at that. You've been at the bakery.

Speaker 14 (01:04:01):
Yeah, yeah, the Wakefield Bakery down there and down there.

Speaker 2 (01:04:04):
What I love and didn't know about. I knew the
bakery story, But what I didn't know about the bakery
story was the girl on the bus.

Speaker 14 (01:04:12):
Yeah.

Speaker 2 (01:04:12):
So that's it's because I'm asking him before we go
to where I go, hawd you get the job at
the bakery? So the girls on the bus, Yeah, yeah,
the cool bus girl on the bus liked her and
yeah she got a job at the baker.

Speaker 14 (01:04:22):
I thought, well, I'd better try my hand there at
the baker.

Speaker 2 (01:04:24):
I want you wanted into the bakery?

Speaker 14 (01:04:26):
Not any good at bacon? Yeah, No, I wandered in
and got a job. Yeah. And it's sort of just
sparked like that.

Speaker 2 (01:04:31):
And you are together though too.

Speaker 20 (01:04:33):
Yeah.

Speaker 2 (01:04:33):
Yeah, so not only a job, but a relationship that
started on the school bus. How cool is that?

Speaker 14 (01:04:39):
Yeah, it's pretty It's pretty special.

Speaker 2 (01:04:41):
Man, is nanas? Is Nana still your manager?

Speaker 14 (01:04:44):
She'd liked to think. Yeah, she's she always will be,
but not not officially.

Speaker 22 (01:04:51):
Okay, Yeah, great supporters, you know, very supportive family, and
that's what you got to have.

Speaker 2 (01:04:55):
Couldn't do it without because I always asked the same
question because as a parent of five myself, some of which,
by the way, are older than you. So this just
makes me an old fart and asking these questions as
every parent goes through the when you do this and
most kids go through what you're going through, a bit
of guitar or a bit of music, or I want
to play the drums, or I want to be Ozzie
Osborne or whoever it happens to be. How do the

(01:05:17):
parents handle it? How did your parents handle it? Did
they back you said, just do whatever you want to do?

Speaker 22 (01:05:21):
Yeah, support from day doot. Really, I think it was
there was never any any holding me back. They never
never want and didn't want me to do this. They
never wanted me to go to university and get a
high paying job. It was do it makes you happy
and you're doing what you love.

Speaker 2 (01:05:36):
You just keep at it far out. Well that's working out. Well, Okay,
so the song you're going to sing. How much of
your material, by the way, is you versus covers? I
saw you do Kenny Rodgers.

Speaker 14 (01:05:46):
Yeah, I do do it, yeah, Kenny Rodgers.

Speaker 22 (01:05:47):
And yeah, I do a lot of covers really, but no,
that's what I used to do before I sort of
started songwriting about four or five years ago. So yeah,
I've written epes songs, really a lot of songs, you know,
like forty or fifty songs, but any of them are
just you know, unheard. You won't you won't hear them
because they're terrible. But yeah, I've got a good little
backlog of songs really, and it's good. That's yeah, just

(01:06:08):
got to keep writing them and we'll keep walking putting the.

Speaker 14 (01:06:10):
Good ones there.

Speaker 2 (01:06:10):
Well, I built this song up a bitter be good,
you better exactly more in a moment, Zach Griffith. It's
fourteen past.

Speaker 1 (01:06:18):
The Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show podcast on iHeart Radio
powered by News Talks.

Speaker 2 (01:06:24):
It be Talks seventeen minutes past. Zach Griffith is with us.
The song is.

Speaker 14 (01:06:30):
Called Sunday Sober, hit Me.

Speaker 6 (01:06:51):
Sick, Goodbye forever girl. I wes you well, I'd make
it all bitter. Don't know if you can tell.

Speaker 23 (01:07:07):
Strinking and smoking and helplessly hoping and everything under.

Speaker 14 (01:07:13):
The song.

Speaker 6 (01:07:15):
She's gone in her spot in my bed is still warm.
Just clean your head up song.

Speaker 20 (01:07:23):
But in the end we were dancing like you strangers
standing while.

Speaker 6 (01:07:28):
They played our favorite song. In my head. We were
laughing all the love and that happened down the road.

Speaker 5 (01:07:37):
Only we know.

Speaker 6 (01:07:41):
Weird, we go so wrong. God, she still looks so pretty.

Speaker 5 (01:07:51):
I wonder does she miss me?

Speaker 6 (01:07:53):
Keep this song that ain't so till this heartbreak song?

Speaker 21 (01:07:58):
Boo chasing after her shadow? Oh Lord, the trails gone cold?

(01:08:27):
Where the hell do I go on?

Speaker 20 (01:08:29):
Now?

Speaker 6 (01:08:30):
Every thought I've seen this load.

Speaker 20 (01:08:34):
Yeah, I've been drinking and smoking and helplessly hoping everything.

Speaker 6 (01:08:41):
Under the song, She's Gone, It's so long?

Speaker 14 (01:08:45):
What did I do so wrong?

Speaker 6 (01:08:48):
I hate the man I become.

Speaker 21 (01:08:51):
But indeed weaver dancing like you strangers, standing while they played.

Speaker 20 (01:08:57):
Our favorite song. But in my head weaver laughing all
the love and it happened down.

Speaker 6 (01:09:05):
A road only we know where we go, So roll God,
She's still so pretty? I wonder does she miss me?

Speaker 20 (01:09:21):
Keep this song?

Speaker 23 (01:09:22):
Day's soul? Still this hot break soulde. They say you
can't live in the path, but.

Speaker 20 (01:09:39):
As long as she's gone soul and I've gone live.
But in the end, we were dancing like you strangers,
standing while they played our favorite songs. In my head
Weaver laughing all the love, and it happened.

Speaker 23 (01:09:59):
Down only we know.

Speaker 6 (01:10:04):
Weird we go?

Speaker 14 (01:10:07):
So I don't know, Gussie.

Speaker 6 (01:10:12):
Still I'm so pretty?

Speaker 14 (01:10:14):
Won you know she missed?

Speaker 6 (01:10:16):
We keep this Sunday Solve till this heartbreaks.

Speaker 20 (01:10:21):
Sunday solve till this hardbreaks sol.

Speaker 2 (01:10:30):
Sensational. Well, mate, there's absolutely brilliant the way you play
that guitar. You're a natural, and just the moment that
you hit the big question from the text. A lot
of feedback on the text, everyone loves you also quest
question Mike's steak and cheese pies to die for at
the Wakefield bakeres.

Speaker 14 (01:10:44):
Oh mate, I'll have to bring you some.

Speaker 2 (01:10:45):
You are They're incredible anytime.

Speaker 14 (01:10:47):
Yeah, I'll go on.

Speaker 2 (01:10:49):
Nice to see good luck with it all come back.
It's very nice to see it. Zach Griffith. It's seven, No,
it's not day twenty two.

Speaker 1 (01:10:55):
So Mike Costing breakfast with Vida Retirement Communities News talks
head be now.

Speaker 2 (01:11:01):
If you're not aware of it, Hearing Health Awareness Month
on at the moment, which means you probably see quite
a few people offering free hearing tests at the moment.
Now that sounds good, but it's worth understanding what they
actually are.

Speaker 4 (01:11:10):
Now.

Speaker 2 (01:11:10):
Most free hearing tests very quick screening checks. They'll tell
you whether you can hear certain times in a quiet room.
What they don't tell you is how well you actually
hear in real life, and that's the bit the matter.
So most people who struggle with hearing don't struggle with volume.
They struggle with clarity and understanding speech following conversations and
noisy places of course, picking up the detail, all that
sort of thing. So quick screening simply doesn't explore those issues,

(01:11:33):
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(01:11:54):
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(01:12:16):
what a brilliant song? Love the guitar? Yeah, you can
tell when you've seen a lot of people come into
the studio the way they start a song, because asking
somebody to perform live in the studio with no sort
of band or backing your accompaniment, all that. The way
they hit the guitar when they start is indicative of
their talent. And he's a real talent. Good song, good

(01:12:37):
wishes to a Mike fabulous. Where do we buy this record?
You buy them? So it's all, well, it's it, it's
it there.

Speaker 12 (01:12:48):
How do I get this on my stick? Oh that's
from Mike Hosking.

Speaker 2 (01:12:52):
It's it's it's it's out there in the ether Goosebumps,
the Star is Born. Mike loved the song, downloading it
on iTunes. That's where you get the song. This guy's
awesome love and great voice. Yeah, no, he's cool.

Speaker 4 (01:13:05):
I like him.

Speaker 2 (01:13:06):
I liked the story that he was on the school
bus and he saw a nice looking girl and he
followed her into the bakery, and not only did they
end up in a relationship, but he ended up working
at the bakery.

Speaker 12 (01:13:16):
Because they could have gone differently, he could have been
arrested for stalking.

Speaker 2 (01:13:20):
I was arrested for said there's a song out though,
isn't it. Oh yeah, he still would have had a
great country music area exactly Newspeaker in a couple of moments,
and then we'll get to Britain. Rachel Reeves was part
of that G seven Finance Minister's meeting that was looking
at the three hundred million barrels of oil that they didn't.

Speaker 15 (01:13:36):
Release rod shortly, opinionated, informed, und apologetic the mic Hosking
breakfast with a Vita Retirement Communities, Life your.

Speaker 2 (01:13:59):
Way this cyber night. So the price of oil has
come back reasonably significantly overnight. Have you went to bed
thinking that it was one hundred and twenty dollars and
this was going to be some sort of disaster. It
is brins currently running at ninety four, so it's been
a material for the w wtis down to ninety so
clearer heads have prevailed. The G seven finance ministers met,

(01:14:23):
they were looking at tapping the reserves. There was the
possibility of three undred million barrels being tossed into the mix.
They decided not to. Rachel was at the meeting.

Speaker 24 (01:14:31):
Our contracts for difference are already protecting consumers, ensuring that
generators of low carbon energy pay money back into the
system when the wholesale prices are high, shielding bill payers
from fossil fuel price shocks. I can confirm to the
House that in the coming days we will publish the

(01:14:52):
Government's response to the Finkleton Review of nuclear regulation to
build nuclear power more quickly.

Speaker 2 (01:15:02):
I'm just not sure that nuclear power is going to
solve the immediate issue anyway. The Shadow Chancellor old mel
he had a word.

Speaker 19 (01:15:09):
Her gross mismanagement has left us far more vulnerable than
would otherwise have been the case. And the government, of
course is continuing to impose ruineously high taxes on our
oil and gas sector and choosing to rely on imports
instead of maximizing our own domestic energy supply. But as

(01:15:31):
the right Honorable Lady has just told us, there will
be no change in direction.

Speaker 14 (01:15:35):
That is the wrong choice.

Speaker 13 (01:15:38):
International correspondence with ends in eye insurance, peace of mind
for New Zealand business across it all.

Speaker 2 (01:15:44):
In the UK after Rod little morning make since we
last talked, Starmer's been on the phone to Trump and
he I mean, I gotta tell I mean, Macron's been
in Cyprus and he's sending warships potentially to her moves,
and he looks like he's actually part of this. And
I mean, if Starmers sit out to make himself look incompetent,

(01:16:05):
could he have outdone himself.

Speaker 5 (01:16:09):
It's very difficult to think how he could have done that.
It's so embarrassing. I just want to crawl into a
corner and curl up in the ball. You know, the
Spanish and the French are protecting our territory is in
the Mediterranean and con see Iranians, and it's bad both ways.

(01:16:30):
You look at it if you look at it from
the point of view that Sakir Starmer made a principled
and a kind of Harold Wilson ish decision not to
support America in this adventure against Iran, which is an
arguable position, you know, whatever, we may think, that's an

(01:16:51):
arguable position. That was one thing. But to then say, oh,
We're now going to allow Americans to use our naval base,
our our Air force Bass and We're going to send
a warship to the Gulf, all of that stuff is lost.
The whole moral position is lost. And so he loses
both the right in Great Britain, which thinks we should

(01:17:15):
be fighting Iran, and the left which thinks we should
have nothing to do with it, and the center, which thinks,
just how incompetent are you?

Speaker 4 (01:17:24):
Yeah?

Speaker 2 (01:17:24):
Exactly. Do we know what actually was said? I know,
I don't think Trump said anything about the call Starmer's
tried to do. We know what was actually said on
the call and whether it made any difference.

Speaker 5 (01:17:37):
No, No, we don't know the detail. I don't suppose
we will either. I mean it comes down to the
fact that I think that the US administration treats a
British government with contempt and it's got some point to
doing that. You see. It may have been better if

(01:17:58):
Starmar said, look, you're making a great mistake here. This
is going to be a war which is going to
block you down for years. We don't want to be
proud of it. We'll remember Iraq and that was a mistake.
That would have been a fine thing to say. You
may not agree with it, but it would have been
a fine thing to say. But he didn't even do that,
you know. He That's where we are.

Speaker 2 (01:18:22):
I'm not a tiny blasted over the weekend that when
the US needs to help, you better show up. And
I mean that's why Tony Blair, I mean, as much
as you might say about a rack and Tony Blair,
I mean that's why I guess, isn't it.

Speaker 5 (01:18:35):
Well, there is a point to what Blair says, except
that you know, he showed up and it was a disaster.
He showed up for George W. Bush and it was
a disaster in Iran. I think Tony Bair is possibly
the last person I would be taking advice from on
what to do in this situation. And you know, he's

(01:18:58):
got to the left of him that brings your party
and most of his backdventures saying color relations with the Americans.
And then he's got kind of the sensible tranche of
Middle Britain which says, well, hang on, this might work.
And this is a country which has been sponsoring terrorism
against US for years. He simply is incapable of making

(01:19:25):
a judgment.

Speaker 2 (01:19:27):
The anti Muslim hostilities are. So what are your qualifications
required if you're going to apply for this particular piece
of fun.

Speaker 5 (01:19:36):
I don't know. Well I've applied, Mike, I've actually applied
because I thought I thought it was the way it
was written, it looked as if it was someone who
was meant to whip up hostility against Muslim people, which
obviously we shouldn't do. It's just such a terrible, terrible

(01:19:58):
waste of time, money, and it will also have an
impact upon freedom of speech. There is going to be
a czar. Zars never work, you know, you read about
sars being appointed every few weeks and they never work.
There's going to be a czar who looks after what

(01:20:20):
implications are directed towards the Musmian community. I just do
not see.

Speaker 11 (01:20:26):
You know.

Speaker 5 (01:20:27):
The worst what it will do is prosecute British people
for saying, well, isn't Islam something to do with that attack?
When the next suicide detect occurs, and when some guy
has blown himself up saying the Alu snack bar stuff,
you know that they will be that they will be

(01:20:51):
punished for simply saying that it's it just doesn't work
and it's another genuflection towards the kind of far left
on this party which costs the country money, makes the
country a slightly worst place and lose this infloats.

Speaker 2 (01:21:09):
Yeah, very well, said all right, mate, we'll catch up
in a couple of days. Appreciate it very much.

Speaker 8 (01:21:12):
Rod.

Speaker 2 (01:21:12):
A little out of Britain this morning. I know the
mortgage rates have started in Britain to go up a
little bit by a quarter percent. Nationwide, HSBC UK and
the Country Building Society they're considering increases at the moment.
This is all out of the war, but nationwide the two, three,
five and ten year fix. We don't have ten year fix.
I don't know why we don't have ten year fix,
but they do. Mind you Americas at thirty year fix.

(01:21:33):
The average two year fixed in Britain now is four
eight four, the five years at four nine six, so
they're there or thereabouts as far as we're concerned. Trump
made a comment, when was it half an hour ago
something like that, that you don't want to worry about
the oil price. The oil price will come down quickly.
And people believe that the Nasdaq's gone through the roof
and the Dow Jones has come back considerably as well.

(01:21:55):
Oil's plummeting as we speak. Wties down at eighty six
and Brent's down at eighty eight. So from one just
think about it, from one twenty spiking yesterday down to
eighty eight now a thirty dollars swing in less than
twenty four hours shows you just how mad the world is.
But speaking of fewl I have news from in New

(01:22:17):
Zealand in a moment eight forty five.

Speaker 1 (01:22:20):
The like Asking Breakfast Full Show podcast on iHeartRadio powered
by News Talks at.

Speaker 2 (01:22:25):
B It's just so funny to watch this, I'm told
by the way journalists are staking out the building in Wellington.
They're looking at caucus day for the National Party. They're
staking out the building interviewing national MPs with the whole
and you'll have more of this tonight. I'm just honestly,
if the TV people don't I assume they don't look

(01:22:46):
at ratings, and I assume that no one in management
these days goes to them, Hey, look, we don't quite
have the audience we used to have, and part of
that might be that you sort of try and milk
a story beyond it. So they're interviewing it's caucus day
for the National Party, so are you.

Speaker 4 (01:22:58):
You're going to feel pretty silly.

Speaker 12 (01:23:00):
They've got footage of Luxon coming out with a file
box with all his belongings in because.

Speaker 2 (01:23:03):
He's yeah, I'm gonna yet that happens, Glenn, I'll be
happy to feel pretty foolish. Eighty six eighty two for
the WTI, the Nasdaq two to seventy six, up e
s and p UP fifty one, the down Jones up
to fifty three post Trump's comment, So that has just
fallen like a stone. The oil price and the time
that we've been on air on the markets completely flipped around.

(01:23:26):
It's no good for in New Zealand, though, they've now
just announced their suspending their inning guidance. Unsurprisingly because in
their report the other day, which was a loss of
whatever it was, fifty nine million bucks, they were going
forward suggesting they were assuming eighty five dollars a barrel
for jet fuel. That's no longer the case obviously, So
therefore they have no idea what's going on. So it's

(01:23:47):
going to meaningfully there would not mind meaningfully affect their
second half. They've implemented initial fair adjustments of the conflict
leads to continue to elevated jet fuel costs, although interestingly,
I can't remember who I was telling you about. It
was one of the American airlines, was it American? Who United?
Earlier on today they said, of this thing drags, not now,

(01:24:08):
but if it drags, it will affect Q two. But
they're seeing huge adjustment and demand from places like Australia.
So no, you're not going up through Emirates anymore, you're
going through the American airlines and up into Asia and
across America. People are not going to stop traveling, so
they're just going to do it on other airlines. So
you would have to think in that calculation, somewhere is
an upside for in New Zealand because the dollar is

(01:24:30):
certainly not doing anything. I can tell you that for nothing.
And so it's never been cheaper for an American or
a Chinese person, or an Indonesian or a singapore Ian
or a brit or a German to travel to the country.
So that's got to have some sort of I would
have thought material effect on the New Zealand's bottom line
to the positive nine Away from nine.

Speaker 1 (01:24:47):
The Mike Hosking Breakfast with Ranger of a sport SV
News togs dead V.

Speaker 2 (01:24:52):
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Asking the ratings. By the way, the biggest sport watched

(01:26:03):
in Australia just happened to be on Australian site yesterday.
If one wins, it beat the opening of course for
the NRL and the AFL season beat that AFL was second,
but the Sunday race day itself was number one. Despite
the fact that Oscar didn't even make the start line,
so shows you how big and popular. If one is
Mike listening to you while traveling over Drake Passage to Antarctica.

(01:26:26):
I think that's the first message I've ever got from
that particular part of the world.

Speaker 1 (01:26:30):
Five to nine trending now with Chemist Wells keeping Kiwi's healthy.

Speaker 15 (01:26:36):
All year round.

Speaker 2 (01:26:37):
Guy Ritchie new film. I'd go anywhere to see a
Guy Ritchie film. In the Gray so an elite extraction
specialist group tasked with recovering stolen billion dollar fortunes. There
are two versions of how this narrative plays out.

Speaker 14 (01:26:50):
Exhibit Hey, Gary ways patiently and quietly by the door.

Speaker 10 (01:26:53):
Exhibit beat, Gary stabs four and you spend the next
six hours sponging him off the walls.

Speaker 14 (01:26:58):
You know which version Gary would of her Garry.

Speaker 8 (01:27:04):
And this job on mistakes are made. You need insurance.

Speaker 2 (01:27:09):
Kids, don't say a word, follow me, tack.

Speaker 11 (01:27:13):
Every box, take every tuck, bloop, every wheelick, every step
three two one.

Speaker 24 (01:27:20):
They are right in the gray.

Speaker 16 (01:27:23):
If you give yourself enough runway, build up some speed,
and flap your arms like so.

Speaker 12 (01:27:29):
It should take the bump out of the landing.

Speaker 2 (01:27:32):
It's always the same isn't it, But I love it.
Gillen Hall, Gillenhall, Gillinghi, Jake, Henry cavill ISAA, Gonzalez, Rosamund Pike,
I love her and Fisher Stevens exclusively in theaters May fifteen.
By the way, Wall's over. Trump's just told CBS could

(01:27:53):
be over soon. I think the wall's very complete, pretty much,
very far ahead of schedule. No maybe no communications. They've
got nowhere for claims. Their missiles are down to a
scatter wrapping up ers.

Speaker 12 (01:28:03):
In my mind, I'm so looking forward to celebrating very complete,
pretty much day in a few two years exactly.

Speaker 2 (01:28:09):
So they said four to six for all the people
who've gone nuts for the last couple of days. This
this thing was never a thing.

Speaker 12 (01:28:17):
He's doing a news conference at about eleven thirty our time,
so well that'll be what twelve thirty now at eleven
thirty our time, five thirty that.

Speaker 2 (01:28:24):
Time, No, eleven thirty will be twelve thirty because he
he won't show up on time momentarily, don't don't tell
us what our schedule for actually when it really happens,
two different things. Anyway, back tomorrow morning from six, as always,
Happy days

Speaker 1 (01:28:42):
For more from the mic Asking Breakfast, listen live to
news talks it'd be from six am weekdays, or follow
the podcast on iHeartRadio