Full Show Podcast: 15 July 2026

Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
No fluff, just facts and fierce debate. The My Hosking
Breakfast with Alveda Retirement Communities, Life Your Way, news togs
had been.

Speaker 2 (00:09):
Lolling a welkim Today visitors and migrant stats. They look
increasingly promising for New Zealand. Thinks scale up tells us
the secret, given they're booming in America and the tariffs
haven't made a jot of difference. Paul Henry on his
act call Mark and Jenny Politics Wednesday, Richard Arnold Murray
olds they do the big wide.

Speaker 3 (00:23):
World as well.

Speaker 2 (00:24):
Pascal, Welcome to the middle of the week, seven past six. Yes,
Paul Henry and I go back a long way decades.
In fact, he used to read news on a show
of mine many years ago. I can't say I saw
politics in his future, but then again, I can't say
I couldn't have ruled it out either. So why not him.
He's retired, he could be a bit bored, I guess,
or he could be driven to make a contribution, if
hanging out in Wellington is a contribution you want to make.

(00:44):
He's good fun, he's bright, he's worldly. I don't think
he'll fit well into the system. He's a free spirit,
and those sort of people don't tend to operate well
in teams with instruction. He spoke passionately if you saw
it yesterday about his country could be age. But I
feel exactly the same way. I don't have to live here,
I choose to because I love the place. He's in
the same sort of position, so why not try to
lend a hand. He spoke singularly about our debt. He's

(01:08):
indisputably right. Of course. He could have stolen those lines
and concerned from me if you listen to this program regularly.
Maybe all blokes sixty ish years of age worry about
our debt at our country. Maybe it's because we're old
enough to remember better days and see no reason why
we can't re engineer the place to look like it
once did. But politics is about more than debt. The
other issue is, if you're going to go to Wellington

(01:29):
to save the country, you really need to be in
a position to power, and national has more power than act,
so this clearly is also a philosophical or ideological decision.
He likes the cut of their libertarian jib. In terms
of performance, the place will be better for him. He's
fun he's quick. You might want to watch the line
between serious and clown entertaining and nutty, professional and self indulgent.

(01:51):
The big game changer for him will be accountability. Once
they vote for you, once they pay for you, they
own you, and boy will they let him know about it.
But I like people who don't have to do stuff
doing stuff. They're generally there for the right reasons. David
Seymour told me yesterday, it's just the shot in the
arm they need right now. And I think he's right.

(02:12):
News of the World in ninety six, the strike tolls off.
L Zady of Iraq is in the house on the
yellow chairs Baghdad.

Speaker 4 (02:21):
I think, and I and this country we're going to
make some tremendous music together.

Speaker 5 (02:28):
Iraq has tremendous potential.

Speaker 2 (02:31):
Because of their oil. You know how this works. He
then goes, yeah, whatever he said.

Speaker 6 (02:36):
The thirtieth of September, the US forces will be out
of it right here, while these companies will be inside.
The right relations is about like economy, is not like
about like military relations.

Speaker 2 (02:49):
No, he's an interesting bloke, actually brand new consensus choice.
Given they couldn't agree on anything, so he's got no
political experience. At all, so what could possibly go wrong?
Then to Britain, where the Whittickam cage continues to unfore.

Speaker 7 (03:00):
It is clear that this was a targeted attack.

Speaker 8 (03:05):
We are still working to.

Speaker 7 (03:06):
Understand the extent of any planning.

Speaker 2 (03:09):
Or preparation and the motivation that sits behind that attack. Yeah,
police are handling increasing criticism over their line that it
wasn't TIRA until of course it was. Big vote this week,
by the way, on what they call the Hillsborough Law,
three decades in the making. It will make it a
legal duty for public officials to tell the truth to inquiries.
This woman credits Bournham know List forgetting this and.

Speaker 9 (03:29):
He's the person that brought our campaign group together. He's
so passionate about correcting injustices and you know he's just
He has been the backbone of our campaign group.

Speaker 2 (03:41):
More revelations from the COVID inquiry in Britain. Mess of
waste on Ppe.

Speaker 3 (03:45):
It is a.

Speaker 10 (03:45):
Start fact that are the approximately fifteen billion pounds spent
on Ppe. Nearly two thirds almost ten billion pounds was wasted.

Speaker 2 (03:57):
And and SMI finals time to Mars as they realer
of England v Argentina. Last time this bloke was on
the field. Obviously we're a bit unfortunate.

Speaker 11 (04:04):
The decision went against us and we rallied at the
end and.

Speaker 7 (04:08):
We nearly got back on.

Speaker 11 (04:11):
Level plan field, but unfortunately, fortunately for us the day
one the day hopefully we can get our revenge this time.

Speaker 2 (04:18):
Well, we'll see. That's Luneka of course. Finally updates on
the auction for gas. This is the t Rex we're
talking about. Yesterday soud'lly's thought somewhere between thirty five and
fifty two million. I mean, how do you price the
t Rex? We didn't take anyway, went Brady six point
two million, new record there obviously no word on the
buyer News of the world in ninety what can I
tell you? They got a little bit of inflation in
the States CPI read this morning. Interesting, it's down. That'll

(04:40):
be the war and the gas price going down. They're
expecting zero point two They got zero point four, are
three point five annually, so it's not bad. And Egene
Carroll she's happy this morning. She actually got her five
million at last from mister Trump, the five million plus interest,
so he's finally coughed twelve pass six.

Speaker 1 (05:00):
The Mike asking breakfast full show podcast on iHeartRadio powered
by News TALKSB.

Speaker 2 (05:08):
A couple of international reads to pep up your morning.
China exports at their fastest paced since twenty twenty one,
so they seem to be back to some degree. Singapore
keeps on keeping on GDP read they thought five and
a half percent came in at five point seven. Oh
to be there a fifteen past six monem sure in
partner's Andrew kellaher good morning, God morning. So I've got

(05:30):
a theme here, the manufacturing, the services, and now you're
going to roll out the old business opinion. Eh.

Speaker 12 (05:34):
Absolutely, So this is the New Zealand Institute of Economic
Research yesterday released their latest quarterly survey of Business Opinion. Now, Mike,
it's one of the more important business surveys. It's eagerly
awaited and it certainly forms part of the Reserve Bank
sort of suite of information that informs their monetary policy decision.
So what's in this survey counts the key issue headline

(05:57):
issue here. We've seen a lift in business confidence that's
consistent with those other recent surveys, the numbers that went
to plus.

Speaker 7 (06:04):
Twelve from plus one. And an important factor is which
is consistent across all these as well.

Speaker 12 (06:08):
You saw that fall in fuel prices, saw that towards
the end of the survey prid sort of late June
early July. It also reveals that there's an element I'm
going to call it resilience in firm's own trading activity
in the second quarter.

Speaker 7 (06:22):
When I say.

Speaker 12 (06:22):
Resilience, the activity wasn't strong, still quite subdued, but it
didn't get any worse.

Speaker 7 (06:27):
And then we were all worried about the Q two
things getting a lot worse. Well it didn't.

Speaker 12 (06:31):
But from the point of view of implications for monetary policy,
the reserve bank and interest rates, what it revealed about
pricing intentions was notable. There was a big lift in
pricing intentions. Now, I've been doing a lot of talks
around the country recently. One of the things I've been
pointing out is that we've seen at least three years

(06:52):
of business profitability sort of being chipped away at. We
can see evidence of margins being squeezed, and I've sort
of postulated that once we see some growth, businesses will
look to reclaim some of that lost margin. In other words,
they're going to be They're going to be tempted to
put their prices up. So in the survey we saw
reported selling prices rose to plus thirty seven plus twenty

(07:15):
three on a seasonal adjusted basis, But more importantly, firm's
pricing intentions lifted to plus fifty four from plus forty three. Now,
one of the pieces of analysis that came out yesterday
might from the B and Z. They suggested that those
sorts of levels in those two pieces of data there
will be consistent with annual inflation around five percent, So

(07:39):
those numbers are inflationary potentially. Some of the other numbers,
domestic trading activity plus one from zero.

Speaker 7 (07:45):
That was that resilience I was talking about.

Speaker 12 (07:47):
Expected trading activity actually fell a little bit, plus ten
from plus thirteen. Business sets was the most pessimistic, or
though slightly less pessimistic than the previous quarter. Reported employment
declined and ten percent of firms reported that they had
reduced staff numbers. To sort of sum it up, mike,
business activity fair a bit better than maybeing expected some

(08:09):
sectors feeling the pain like construction, but pricing intentions raised
concerns about potential inflationary.

Speaker 2 (08:17):
Pressures, which is ironically of what Paul Conway was on
about yesterday as well.

Speaker 7 (08:21):
Wasn't it absolutely So context was important.

Speaker 12 (08:23):
Now I'm not sure whether there was any timing thing here,
because in tandem yesterday we had the chief economists of
the Aarbiens. Paul Conway, gave an on the record speech yesterday.
It was entitled Finding Signal and the Inflation Noise. He
was looking at how inflation expectations and price setting behavior
will influence the path of interest rates.

Speaker 7 (08:42):
I did note in there he sort of highlighted that they.

Speaker 12 (08:44):
Had reduced their forecast inflation numbers. At one stage they're
at four point two and four point three percent for
the Juna September quarter. They're now three point nine and
three point three. But in the face of that, we're
seeing interest rates going up. There could now be some
upside to that three point three because what's happening in
the last few days with the all price going up.
But the key message of this speech was, Mike, and

(09:06):
I'll try to sort of simplify this was the potential
for persistent inflation. He's basically saying that we the sort
of general public and businesses, we pay more attention to
inflation when it's high. When it's low, we don't sort
of care about it, but when it's high, that has
the potential or tendency to then increase our inflationary expectations.

Speaker 7 (09:27):
And this is the problem at the moment. So that's
what they have to manage.

Speaker 12 (09:30):
Means they have to act firmly to bring those inflationary
expectations down. I just want to quickly Mike Kylo, what's
happening in wholesale interest rates at the moment. They spiked
up yesterday the two year swap rate, sort of that
wholesale rate. If I go back to June, it was
around three and a quarter. I think three point twenty
seven was the low. It's now at three point seven percent,

(09:50):
so it's up significantly. The five year rate and June
was around three point six it's now.

Speaker 7 (09:56):
Over four percent. So we're seeing wholesale rates going up.

Speaker 2 (10:00):
Numbers, please sure.

Speaker 7 (10:01):
So the Dow Jones are being dragged down by IBM.

Speaker 12 (10:05):
We've had banks overnight, they've had wonderful results with the
Dow jones. IBM dragging that down. It's down eighteen points
fifty two thousand, four hundred and eighty, the S and
P five hundred up thirty points point four percent, seventy
five to four to five, the Nasdaq up over one
percent two hundred seventy seven points twenty six thousand, one
hundred and sixty the foot Sea one hundred overnight game

(10:25):
point three percent ten thousand, five hundred and twenty nine.
The Nicke up five hundred points three quarters of percent
six seven seven four to three. The Shangho composite gained
one point three six percent overnight three nine sixty seven.

Speaker 7 (10:38):
The Aussi's yesterday barely moved eight eight eight was the
close there.

Speaker 12 (10:42):
The Internet's fifty lost half a percent seventy two points
thirteen thousand, six hundred and fifty one. The key we
dollar is reacting to our higher interest rates point five
eight one one against the US point eight three two
nine against the Ossie point five eighty five euro point
four three four to two pounds ninety four point two
to Japanese yeen. The gold is trading at four thousand

(11:03):
and sixty three dollars and Brent krude, even though Trump,
as we inevitably thought he worked, backed off that initial
theme of charging people to go through the strait, hasn't
brought Brent crude down much, though it's eighty four dollars
and fifty eight cents catch up.

Speaker 2 (11:17):
Tomorrow, mate. Andrew Keller has Sure and Partners cosking everything,
and I mean everything I read semifinals to day to
day for France, Spain, Argentina or England tomorrow as I mentioned,
but everything I read about the football means in toms
of business and bottom line. It's been a smash it
everywhere you go as far as the host city is concerned.
This is new information out this morning from the Bank
of America Institute. Every US host city has seen an

(11:39):
economic lift, if not a boom. Kansas City Philadelphia seemed
to be the big winners. Kansas City spending is up
fifty percent between June tenth and July five, so they
are rolling in at six twenty one. There are news talks.
There'd been.

Speaker 1 (11:58):
The Hosking Bread first full Show podcast on iHeartRadio powered
by News Talks at me.

Speaker 2 (12:05):
I'll come back to it. But Elbow's got a big
speech today on AI. No one's been able to work
out whether he's just going to sort of oversell it
in terms of this is my vision for how it
should look, or whether he's actually going to introduce a
bit of legislation make it a bit of law, but
there's a lot of anticipation around that, especially given as
failure around the social media business. Burnham, by the way,
fun fact, he'll be Prime Minister as of Monday in Britain,
but he's got three hundred and forty nine MP's nominating

(12:28):
him for the job, which now makes it mathematically impossible
for anyone else because you need the eighty one. Of
course you need twenty percent of the numbers, and it's
now mathematically impossible for anybody else to get a nomination.
So that's officially a done deal.

Speaker 1 (12:42):
Six twenty five Trending now with Chemist Warehouse, your one
stop shop this winter.

Speaker 2 (12:49):
Also in Australia, Carl Steffanovick. You remember him. He's milking
the matship for all that's worth at the moment. So
his first podcast. If you've never caught up on any
of this you got sacked from Channel nine to Breakfast Show.
I'm sure you were of that podcast post is second
was with Piers Morgan. Now Piers Morgan's invited Carl onder
his podcast. So you see how all this works anyway.
The full things out later this week. But to warm

(13:10):
you up.

Speaker 13 (13:11):
I do think that the only way through and there's
a lot of issues in the UK. Now discourse is
the way through, and I think you've got to hear
these voices. We've got to have, you know, a media
landscape now that does present these stories and however you
present them.

Speaker 7 (13:26):
If you don't like my shirt, then don't watch.

Speaker 13 (13:28):
If you don't like the interview, then don't watch.

Speaker 2 (13:29):
But I'm going to.

Speaker 13 (13:30):
Continue interviewing people because I want to hear what they're
made of, what makes them so popular, why they can
be a driving force in the place like the UK.
I stand by Tommy Robinson. I've got too much to do,
too much I want to do. Those people aren't working
in the industry anymore, so they can Yeah, you know.

Speaker 8 (13:48):
What I'm saying, They can do you want to.

Speaker 13 (13:53):
I really want to say it. Well, they can go themselves.

Speaker 10 (13:59):
There we go.

Speaker 2 (14:00):
He was also flipping the bird at the end too.
I don't know if any of this is. The more
I listen to him, the more I worry about whether
it's made the right decision.

Speaker 8 (14:06):
But there you go to you're about to stand for
the ACT Party.

Speaker 2 (14:09):
He could be about to stand for the ACT Party.
Next stop is the next stop is the Parliament by
the way. The numbers yesterday immigration good and tourism good
will go through the tourism for you very shortly. Then
the immigration numbers after a seven o'clock. But the gap
is closing the turnaround design. As far as Australia is concerned,
I have interesting numbers around Australia. The average Australian is

(14:29):
going to collectively end up by twenty thirty six. And
this is why the turnaround's happening. The average Australian collectively
is going to end up paying an extra three hundred
and thirty six billion dollars in the next decade. That's
what a labor government does for you in terms of taxation.
And that's before you get to the fact that the
housing market's crashing in front of our eyes. But we'll
come back to all of that as the my costing

(14:51):
breakfast rolls off for this Wednesday morning. We have the
news next well.

Speaker 1 (15:04):
Asking the questions others won't the mic asking breakfast with
Defender Trophy, Epic Adventure, Greater Purpose news talks there'd be Darling.

Speaker 2 (15:13):
Graham's just been sworn into the Senate, which is, as
far as I can work out, an unusually American business
when the family member dies, you can nominate somebody turns
out it's his sister, and you can be a senator
for a period of time until they hold an election. Anyway,
Richard Arnold shortly stateside twenty three minutes away from seven
big data dump on immigration and tourism. Immigration next, how
for you? But as regards visitors were a tad down

(15:34):
on the month, but significantly up on the year, up
six point seven percent. In fact, we're back to ninety
three percent of the pre COVID number. China's behind a
lot of this growth. Grunt Webs, the chief executive of
Tourism Holdings is back with us. Grant, very good morning
to you. So as far as they dip on the month,
is concerned as that? I mean it's seasonally adjusted as well.
Is there anything to worry about or no.

Speaker 14 (15:53):
No, that's a blurt and as we know, the around
situation has had some impact obviously, but no, nothing to
worry about that.

Speaker 2 (16:01):
Okay, China driving the growth? Do you see that? And
is there more where that came from? They're only back
to seventy seven percent of where they were pre COVID.

Speaker 14 (16:08):
Yeah, there's a lot more where that came from. Absolutely
see that in the lights of Waitomo. Not so much
on the rental side of things. But I think that
again that we've talked about before, the visa changed with
Australia is part of what's driving that. But I think
there's more that can be done in that space as well.

Speaker 2 (16:24):
See Australia the US are now over one hundred percent.
In other words, we're growing once again, which is fantastic.
Is there more where that came from or not?

Speaker 14 (16:32):
Yeah, No, absolutely there is. We've we've got to realize
that tourism was growing well before COVID, right, and we're
just back to that growth path. So we know that
it's important to the economy. We know, as you said
this morning, we want to drive debt down. We've got
to do it through growth, not through cutting costs. Oh
you can't. You know, you can't cut your way to prosperity, right, So, yeah,
there's more to come.

Speaker 2 (16:52):
Okay, as far as the dollars concerned, as that helping.

Speaker 14 (16:56):
Yeah it does. It doesn't necessarily make a difference to
a destination decision, but it certainly changes what people spend
on the ground.

Speaker 2 (17:04):
Okay, what do you make? So christ your chairport's up
twenty two percent, Queenstown twenty Auckland up zero point seven.
Is that where they land doesn't matter or it does matter?

Speaker 7 (17:16):
Oh?

Speaker 14 (17:16):
I know, I don't think it matters overall. I mean
christ Hitch comes off a lower base, right, but that
done a good job and the South Island's obviously attractive.
Dispersal of customers across the country is good for the
regions and good for economics spread so it is good
to see that spread more evenly. But at the moment
for South on the ground, that's fine indeed.

Speaker 2 (17:37):
And how much of that's about capacity, I mean it's
are the brains full, the seats full as Auckland maxed out?
What's going on there?

Speaker 14 (17:44):
I think I think you've just you've seen Christich do
a good job of increasing capacity and that's flown through.
You've seen a lot come out of Australia from that
perspective as well. But Auckland will continue to grow and
I think we'll see more capacity growth here over the
coming twelve months without it out.

Speaker 2 (17:59):
Okay, you mentioned them least. Do people just different route
or are people not traveling because of the Middle East?

Speaker 14 (18:06):
I think you had a couple of things going on,
so air prices definitely increased. With the reduced capacity that
was in the total market, you had a degree of uncertainty,
and those things are coming right now. So I don't
think we're going to this coming summer be quite where
we could have been had the war not occurred. However,
I think we're still going to be in great and

(18:27):
I think we're going to hit that pre COVID number.
Good to steal your saying from somewhere else, this is
our yet.

Speaker 2 (18:35):
Where are you at with your takeover offer? By the way,
what's the timeline on that? Is this a good time
to be you?

Speaker 14 (18:41):
We are deep in due diligence, as you know. We've
got two different parties that are conducting DD on the
business at the moment, so we're just deep in that timeline.
We're just going to see from here. It's a few
months yet before we know exactly we will end up,
so we just focus on growing the business at the
same time.

Speaker 2 (18:57):
Good stuff. Nice to talk to you as always. Grant Webster,
who is the executive of Tourism Holdings, if you're not
following the last question, they've had a couple of offers
from two different people, and as you said, they're looking
at the books as we speak. Yeah, that three thirty
six billion. Just quickly from Australia. There's out new numbers
out this morning from actually from the Parliamentary Budget Office.
So it said there's no political spin on it. They're

(19:18):
getting surplus earlier, but the amount of tax and they
will tell you, oh, we're cutting the tax, We're cutting
the tax. They're doing no such thing. An extra three
hundred and thirty six billion dollars of tax from the
Australian taxpayer in the next ten years. So welcome to Australia.
Albanesi Styles Murray olds with us after Raight thirty nineteen to.

Speaker 1 (19:36):
Two the Mic Asking Breakfast Full Show podcast on iHeartRadio,
powered by News Talks EP.

Speaker 2 (19:45):
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(20:28):
en z forward slash business, t's and c's apply pasking. Mike,
you realize that Paul Henry is going to finish luxenof
here we go, start it already, Hey, fizzing up already.
He's going to call them out for being way too
soft and all that vote will go to ACT in
New Zealand first. Either way, National will lose voters Henry
and Laws will speak for the largely unspoken and seemingly
unpolled working population in New Zealand. Ding Ding, It's begun

(20:54):
six forty.

Speaker 15 (20:55):
Five international correspondence with enzed Eye Insurance, Peace of Mind,
New Zealand Business.

Speaker 2 (21:00):
Would you know the morning to you morning, Mike, God,
it's trying keeping up with US, isn't it?

Speaker 4 (21:05):
Isn't it full of the bouncing ball? Just hours after
he's threatened to impose a twenty percent fee on all
ships going through the oil channel, Trump says there will
be no fee and said he says the Gulf States
have agreed to make massive investment deals in the US
of A. What deals when Who's benefit? None of that
is clear, says Trump.

Speaker 1 (21:24):
You have Sodi, Radio, Ee, Guitar, Bahrain and Kuwait primarily
and then others.

Speaker 16 (21:34):
I spoke to all of them, and they would love
to invest more money in the United States at record amounts,
and that would be very acceptable.

Speaker 11 (21:42):
And this way there's no fee.

Speaker 2 (21:44):
I don't like the concept of the fee.

Speaker 11 (21:46):
Yeah.

Speaker 4 (21:46):
The Trump team, especially Rubio and Advance, has been claiming
for weeks and weeks that fees were illegal when it
comes to international waterways. Trump then said the US Navy
would become quote the guardian angels of the Straits. The
Pentagon moved to restart the US a blockade of running
ports that sort of takes effect about an hour from now.
Oil prices soared as the war is seen to be

(22:07):
flaring significantly with those titfittat military strikes in recent days,
and the ten ships went through the strait yesterday, the
lowest level in more than one month. Before the war,
the number would be around one hundred and thirty a day.
Oil prices spiked now with this latest Trump reversal, though
for that's somewhat still the challenges. The challenges remain the same,
don't they. The US is trying to restore oil traffic

(22:28):
to the way it was before the war began. Richard Hass,
former diplomat, says, while the talks appear to have collapsed
for now, some sort of negotiation really is the only
effective course, not continuing military actions.

Speaker 5 (22:40):
The ships aren't safe. You can't do it. It just
is not a workable thing. At some point we need
to reach some accommodation with the Straits, and I think
after four months we ought to have learned we can't
bomb around into capitulation.

Speaker 4 (22:52):
This has discussions around's nuclear developments and not even being
carried on. The focus to begin with seems to be
an attempt to return things to right where they were
before the drones, missiles and bombs began to fly.

Speaker 2 (23:04):
Right UPDT me on mine. Where are we at well?

Speaker 4 (23:07):
For the second time in less than a week, we
have an innocent man who's been shot dead by ICE
immigration agent. So now ICE is reversing policy, putting their
traffic stops on hold. Forbitz's former FBI official Andrew.

Speaker 7 (23:19):
McCay, it's about time.

Speaker 4 (23:20):
Yeah, these latest shootings are shocking. Really, Texas lawmaker, why
King Castro caused them? Quote cold blooded murder. Twenty six
year old one Guerrero from Columbia's latest victim. He worked
at a veterinary practice in a small center in Maine
near Portland, has had a three year old daughter. He
was authorized to work in this country and the Trump

(23:41):
administration meets he wasn't even the target of the ICE operations. Instead,
he was out driving when unmarked ICE vehicles moved to
stop him. His car was seen turning in slow circles.
Then citing threats to public safety, and ICE agents shot
him through his windscreen. This is graphics, so let me
caution folks. As a witness recorded those gunshots. Yeah, witness

(24:06):
Daniel Bouche says of what he saw in this situation.

Speaker 17 (24:11):
Put him on the ground, and I heard the young
man say I tried to stop, clearly hurt him.

Speaker 4 (24:17):
Say that Bouchet then says, in terms of what he witnessed, I.

Speaker 17 (24:21):
Could no longer see any movement in which Schmidt that
he aspired. His head was bloody, his face was bloody
and was awful.

Speaker 6 (24:31):
It was awful.

Speaker 4 (24:32):
Threat to public safety? What was the threat to public safety?
You know, if police do traffic stops, they'll typically alert
colleagues to stop a fleeing vehicle later on down the road.
They do not open fire a traffic stops, killing the driver.
While in Houston last week, another man was shot dead,
fifty two year old Lorenzo Rojo. He also was not
the intended target for the arrest warrant. All this reminiscent,

(24:54):
of course, of what happened in Minneapolis when Renee Good
and Alex Petty were killed by ICE agents, and Christy
then lost her job as head of Homeland Security. After
the killings in Minneapolis, US lawmakers gave Ice twenty million
dollars US to pay for body cams that must, they said,
be worn by ICE operators. Five months later, in these
deadly traffic stops in mainland Texas, no body cams.

Speaker 2 (25:18):
All right, we see you in a couple of days.
Richard Arnold, the other couple of interesting things. Trump says
he's going to speak to the nation on Thursday evening
his time, nine PM, which is one o'clock Friday afternoon.
The suggestion is some new d declassified intelligence he's got
reveal of foreign nation's plans to interfere with the twenty
twenty presidential election. He's going to be joined by Ratcliffe,
Cia Cash Bettel FBI, and the Homeland Security Secretary Mark

(25:42):
Wayne Mullen. So that's Friday afternoon. Meantime, Justice Barrett, Supreme
Court Amy Coney Barrett, and along with Elana Kagan, they've
been in front of a House subcommittee talking about the
threat level to their lives and against other federal judges
is really high. They're asking for more money, basically two
hundred twenty eight million, which is a ten percent increase

(26:03):
higher spending on security related measures. The threat level against
her and other federal judges is quote unquote really high.
Ten away from seven.

Speaker 1 (26:13):
The Mike Hosking Breakfast with Bailey's Real Estate News tog ZB.

Speaker 2 (26:18):
Actually, the other thing I noted in America this week
will be voted on. Are the Congress going to vote
on whether to end daylight saving That twice yearly. Changing
of the Clock. Sunshine Protection Act is what they call.
It's been around for decades. DST permanent default time across
the nation extend sunlight later in the evening during winter. Sunrise, though,
is going to be a problem in some parts of America,

(26:38):
could be as late as eight thirty in the morning.
It's across the House thirty four co sponsors in the House,
three of them Democrats, eighteen and the Senate eight to Democrats.
Trump loves it, wants it nineteen. American states have already
passed laws that would see them switch to permanent daylight
saving time if Congress allows them. Everywhere from Florida, where
the sun allway shines, of course, Tennessee, Delaware, Maine, Georgia, Minnesota, Alabama, Texas,

(27:00):
State of Washington. IFDST was made permanent, the sunrise in
Seattle would be nine in the morning. Can you live
with that? The sun doesn't come up till nine in
the morning. In fact, if you're in Grand Rapids it's
nine point fifteen. In Williston, North Dakota nine forty five,
it doesn't get light till nine forty five. So obviously

(27:20):
they're not voting for it. Five minutes away from seven.

Speaker 1 (27:24):
B, the ins and the ouse. It's the fizz with
business fiber, take your business productivity to the next level.

Speaker 2 (27:31):
I don't use from Westpact this morning. The majority of
us are still a bit worried about the war and
how it affects our finances. So this is a research
the interesting thing that wrapped up last week, and you
know what happens since then. Anyway, sixty percent is still
worried about the fighting impacting the old bottom line, which
is an improvement, by the way, on the previous two months.
It used to be eighty and seventy six, so it's
gone down to sixty. Of that sixty, nineteen percent say

(27:55):
they're very concerned. Forty one percent say they have some
level of concern. It's sort of like a pointless survey,
isn't I mean for yes, I mean, I purse, I'm
on dangerously close to not giving a monkey. I couldn't
care less. But do I have some level of concern? Yes,
I'm thinking of going to Dubai for Christmas, so on
that radar, I'm thinking, you know, I mean maybe, but

(28:17):
really it's not going to change my life. Five percent
no concerns at all. Eight percent say they brought a
smaller or more fuel efficient car because of it the war.
That is forty four percent they drive the car less.
Thirty one percent change the supermarket shop. Twenty five percent
put big purchases on hold, which goes against the stats

(28:41):
the other day that said that we're spending more on
discretionary things and big purchases. So I don't know what
it means. It means it depends on which pole you're reading.
By the way, I've got a new polar polls this morning.
If you're interested in that. The Herald of not listening
to me. The Herald have gone and stuck opportunity with
national again. Unless they stop it. I'm going to stop
covering the polar poles because it's not happening. Therefore, stop
wasting my time. Eleven percent they stocked up on fuel.

(29:04):
That's crap. One in ten people in New Zealand have
stocked up on fuel. Give me a break. I mean,
what did you do do your ninety one for an
extra five liter fear with a snipper? I mean, I've
got that, I've got two cans for the with a snipper,
But it's hardly stocking up as if fifteen percent have delayed, changed,
or canceled both international and domestic treble plans. Whatever you're

(29:26):
seeing the airport these holidays, there's no one at worked.
Go out to you like, go out to your office today,
if you would work, go out to your office and
see if anyone's there. There's no one there. Everyone's away.
There's three people. This company employs eleven hundred and twelve
hundred people. There are currently three in the building. There's me,
Sam and Glenn.

Speaker 8 (29:45):
And you could make a pretty sad argument that I'm
not really here exactly.

Speaker 2 (29:48):
There's two and a half people in the building, the
other guy, Sam and me. News for you in a
couple of moments. Then we'll get into the business of
immigration and the latest stats.

Speaker 1 (30:00):
Make Casking Breakfast Full show podcast on iHeartRadio, Howard buy
News talks at be here yourself. Think it's the mic
costing Breakfast with Bailey's real Estate. Your local experts with
national and global reach used talks head.

Speaker 2 (30:15):
Be falling seven past seven, So brings us back into
the eighties, but down a little bit on where it
was earlier. On this morning, after Trump put a toll
on but then took the toll off almost as though
he's got no idea of what he was doing. So
how long? How do we dig ourselves out of this
particular hole. Jared Lyons is back whetherus he was cheap
chief economic advisor to Boris Johnson, candidate for Governor of
the Bank of England. Gired morning to you, good morning.

(30:37):
How do you navigate around this mess?

Speaker 7 (30:40):
Yeah?

Speaker 18 (30:40):
Well, it's very difficult. The key message really from President
Trump's comments is continued unpredictability. A few weeks ago, the
markets and indeed economists generally were quite upbeat about the
prospect of the war ending that would have allowed inflatory
worries to ease or prices down. Now we've seen more
volatility in the market, and I think, unfortunately, this is

(31:02):
likely to continue. It's important to say, though, Mike, that
this is only one of a number of factors at
the moment, and even though today's and the last couple
of days news from President Trump regarding the war in
Iran has been unpredictable, at the same time, the markets
have been very focused on some relatively good news from
the US in terms of inflation, and also testably by
the new Faed Sherman wash and that has eased some

(31:25):
of the worries about inflation. So the worries about inflation
easing in some respects have superseded the unpredictability of President
Trump Today.

Speaker 2 (31:35):
Glass half full. If it's a problem and the bombing continues,
the strait in its state won't be as bad this
time as it was last time. Is that fear or not.

Speaker 18 (31:47):
Well, it's fair in the sense that we've had four
months or so for economies and markets to adjust. There
still is naturally some impact. But also another key factor
is there Back at the end of February when the
war began, there were worries about the US and about
the globe economy. Since then, there's been a lot more
resilience shown in terms of the data out in the

(32:09):
US and indeed globally, So there's more confidence that the
world economy, including the US, can cope with a setback
in Iran. But also at the same time, there's an
expectation that even though there's unpredictability, we're not going to
have the worst case scenario that people were fearing a
few months ago. So resilience in the face of continued
problems and continued volatility and all prices.

Speaker 2 (32:32):
It's one of the great lessons we learned in this country.
Is a very good example that we went out and
got oil from other places, and a lot of other
countries went out and got oil from a lot of
other places and made it work. So I suppose that
too is glass ow fall, isn't it?

Speaker 18 (32:44):
Well, it takes time to adjust. One of the big
news stories this week has been the fact that in
the Gulf there is now moves under way to actually
remove that sort of dependency on the Straight of Horror
moves by putting port and other facility is elsewhere, but
that does take some time. Obviously, the US economy, while

(33:05):
it is the world's most important one in some respects,
is less reliant on some of the oil coming through
the Strait of hor moves and say other economies, say India,
and indeed some respects even China. So there is resilience.
It's glass part fall, coming back to your point, but
is also important to put it in the wider perspective
that we have seen strength in economies despite the war.

(33:28):
And the latest news on inflation, whilst it's not easing
all those inflation fears, it's far better than people thought.
US inflation today was down to three and a half
percent in the year to June. It was four point
two percent in the year to May, and it was
a bigger fall than the markets expected. But let's see
how much volatility there is in coming days. If what

(33:49):
President Trump said today is repeated tomorrow, that is, he's
not putting the tariff on, then it's possible that all
prices might start to fall further and that would help
the situation.

Speaker 2 (33:58):
Grand Inside is always pret Jerry Jerry lyons once we're
with Boris Johnson. Eleven minutes past seven. Our SKI immigration
stat's encouraging. By the way, the stamped out the door
to Australia seems well and truly over new figures NET
lost twenty eight and a half thousand. That's down on
the forty five ish thousand that set records. Paul Spoony
Mass the University sociologists back with this morning. Paul, good morning,
make in your expert opinion. How material is the perception?

(34:20):
The perception now as things are turning for New Zealand
and Australia and some sort of you know, tide is moving.
Is perception a big player in this when it comes
to immigration numbers.

Speaker 19 (34:30):
It is huge and it's always interesting because obviously economics
push and pull people across the Tasman so whenever we
get an economic downturn, we see that spike in people
going to Australia. But the perception is really the psychology
of migration, and the psychology of migration is do I

(34:52):
want to go? Do I want to take the chance?
Is it better over there? I'm hearing things are better,
sometimes worse, And so the perception, that feeling, the media
coverage all play into do I want to go?

Speaker 2 (35:07):
Is there a percentage of people historically who are the
sort who will go or not? In other words, you know,
I've never considered leaving the country and I never will.
You may well be the same. But there are people
in there. Is there just a sort of a makeup
of people who do that?

Speaker 19 (35:23):
Yes, And of course we get people coming here, and
migrants are people who are going to going to migrate
to another country, often for their children, so there's a
family thing that are going on there. So that's why
migrants come to New Zealand. Very often it's to get
a better life and to get better chances for their children.

(35:45):
But Mike, we've got a pattern that began in the
nineteen seventies of overseas experience. We have a ritual of
going overseas when you lose school or when you graduate.
That is never going to change. But what we need
to add on top of that as the people who
are feeling that the chances aren't here in New Zealand

(36:06):
the chances are better in Australia. So we get this
traditional trickle of people leaving. Pre COVID, we lost about
on average three thousand people more going to Australia than
coming from Australia, and of course at the moment it's
much much higher than that, but it'll come back as
the economic conditions are changed, it will come back.

Speaker 2 (36:26):
And what's the relationship with Australia versus anywhere else in
the world. If I'm leaving Australia just simply because it's easy, well, no.

Speaker 19 (36:34):
Back in nineteen seventy three we begin we established a
pat with Australia and as part of that pact that
has it evolved, we gave Australian citizens' right to live
and work in New Zealand and vice versa. So the
normal rules of engagement and requirements of migration between the
two countries are different to everybody else. John Howard changed

(36:56):
that in two thousand and one when he started calling
us bludges until I do. And Albanezi a few years
ago reversed some of those conditions that Howard imposed upon
New Zealand as traveling across the Tasman. Australia is literally
the only countries that are an unskilled, uneducated New Zealander

(37:16):
can go to and settle there and work permanently. So
we see very high skilled migrants going to Australia, but
we also see people who are less skilled going as
well to fill a range of roles in a way
where the sort of the Philippines of the Australian economy
we go and fill the jobs that the Australians don't

(37:37):
want to do.

Speaker 2 (37:38):
Well. That's a bit of a reality checker, right Paul Spoonley, sociologist,
While I'm just on the broad issue of numbers. The
Triple CI, the Cordell Construction indexes out this morning. Does
it cost a lot to build a house? Yes, but
it's not as bad as it was because for the
quarter three months to June we're up one point one percent,
which is up from one so we're still increasing, but
it's not bad. It's three and a half percent for

(37:59):
the year, which it could be better, needs to be better,
but it's still below the long term average of four percent.
So that means broadly, I think consummation slowly, but surely
we're getting there. Quarter past few sticks be Paul Henry
in about fifteen minutes seventeen past seven red tape alert
for you've got to teach with more than twenty years experience.
Can't get full registration in this country after losing her

(38:20):
original South African degree certificate while moving here. Teaching counsel
won't accept a copy version. Their idea is to complete
another post grad qualification. So how does that work. She's
just gone, so we're not going to any of you her.
Don't worry about it. Poll of polls this morning. Let's
have a look at this and see what we've got.
This is where it gets slightly ropy because the pole
of poles, and you know, just to reiterate, that's sort

(38:42):
of the only pole thing I'm doing anymore. But fifty
percent probability that the Opportunities party get to five percent,
so it's fifty to fifty toss a coin that's added
up as a result of yesterday's radio and news even
read research poll. Once again, they're not at five percent,
so they've never been at five percent. And despite the
fact they've never been across the threshold, they're still fifty

(39:03):
to fifty, which strikes me as odd. But then again,
I wasn't that good at school sert maths, so it
could be my problem, not theirs. Sixty two point nine percent,
let's call it sixty three, sixty three percent probability that
national et cetera of the current government are going to
be returned, the probability of labor leaving the next government
to seven point six percent. Those numbers are changing, not
materially but as each pole comes along. But the likelihood,

(39:25):
and this is where I'm sort of it's starting potentially
to become a bit of a waste of time. So
the likelihood of a National New Zealand First Act and
Opportunity combination is eighty eight point one percent as far
as a maths calculation is concerned, fabulous. Do whatever you
like with numbers, but it isn't real. So therefore, if
it's not real, why inclute it? As I said the
other day, it's like saying the chances of a New

(39:48):
Zealand first National Labor government might be ninety eight percent
for all I know, but it isn't happening, So why
I bother with it? The left block chances including Opportunity
twenty eight percent. We all know Opportunity isn't going national
National art going with Opportunity, and that's before you get
to New Zealand first and next. So the whole thing's
not real. But as it stands the poll of polls,
it looks once again like the government is going to

(40:10):
be re elected.

Speaker 1 (40:14):
The Mic Hosking Breakfast Full Show podcast on iHeartRadio powered
by News Talk Seppy.

Speaker 2 (40:23):
Now. Chemists Warehouse twenty twenty six Charity Drive It's in
full swing. We've been telling you about this this year.
There's supporting Life Flight, of course, amazing work. They're delivering
rapid era medical and rescue services across the country, often
reaching people, of course in those remote and hard to
access communities where they help would otherwise be ours away.
So you can help by donating instore or online. Chemist
Warehouse dot co, dot and z Ford Slash Donate shop.

(40:47):
Selected products got a bunch of people on board as well.
Participating brands got go Healthy Swiss Colgate rex Oona Masashi.
Ten percent of all proceeds go directly to Lifelin. In
store you can pick up a limited edition Charity Drive
re usable tote. You'll pay just a buck ninety nine.
All those proceeds go to life Flight. Fundraising will directly
support life lights, critical operations and emergencies. Of course, every

(41:09):
minute matters. You've got more than eighteen hundred people across
the country each year helped premiature babies stroke patient's. Life
Flight provides a vital link to urgent medical care when
time is of the essence. So each saving mission requires
approximately four thousand bucks in communities supports. So through the
Charity Drive, the final donation will play a direct role
in helping deliver urgent life saving care by air. So

(41:31):
you can make a difference and support life Flight and
you can reach anyone anywhere when it matters most But
those donations closed Wednesday next Wednesday, So do the good
business with Chemist Warehouse twenty three. The stats are all there.
If you want proof in what's turning out to be,
It's only Wednesday. It's a very solid week for good
Old New Zealand Inc. We've got the manufacturing back and

(41:51):
root health. We've got the services sector back in expansionary territory,
we've got business confidence lifting as we mentioned them this morning,
and now we have an ongoing drop off in those
lead for Australia, as we talked about with Paul a
couple of moments ago. Now, historically, just to give you perspective,
we've always had more leaving than arriving. The real test
is what is the deficit now? Recently, of course it's
been shocking. Its best number was between twenty fourteen twenty nineteen.

(42:15):
Now why is that significant Because that was the National
led government, that was the rock star economy, the very
simple connection between success and success people like to be
where the action is of late post labor and the
calamitous years of ruin and debt. People bailed in record numbers. Now,
two things are happening here. One, Australia is hitting a
wall of sorts economically and while we are finally resurrecting

(42:37):
the prospects of what might well turn out to be
a pretty decent run of economic news, and with that
cycle will come the change in the numbers that we're
currently seeing. Important to ruin of course, that for the vast,
vast majority of us. None of this change is anything.
I mean, I haven't left. I'm not going to leave.
This is my home. I love it. But our kids
don't see it the same way. Currently three of our
five are off shore and at least two won't be back.

(42:58):
Hope I'm wrong, but as I see it, currently at
least who won't be back. They're part of the worrying
side of this migration story. A country has to offer
hope and it has to offer prospect. A country has
to have a fizz about it. The trans Tasment thing
has got a lot of tie kicking going on, a
lot of tryhards and a lot of chances taking advantage of,
you know, perceived gain by hanging out in cool and
gatter and Malulabah. They're not the real issue. The real

(43:19):
issue are the nurses and the coppers and the graduates
who perceive either country is having the edge. We will
never beat Australia on size, but we can beat them
on lifestyle an opportunity. We know that because we have
done it. The numbers show it. Twenty fourteen to twenty
nineteen were those golden days? Maybe the stats this week
in manufacturing and services and confidence suggest the new Zealand

(43:41):
fizz is back brewing. Tasking the other thing that's going
to get them going in Australia today. So there's the
AI announcement coming today from Elbow. As I mentioned earlier
on the program, we don't know it's a headlining speech.
They've made a big deal of it. We don't know
whether he's announcing legislation and law or just his high
flute idea of how things should work when it comes

(44:02):
to AI. But basically it's sort of a structure around
rules around AI and what should or shouldn't happen within Australia.
It's about time somebody got on top of it because
it's a runaway train, of course. And the other thing,
of course is the tax business, all of which will
cover with Murray Olds later on in the program, but
also today from the CSIRO. The first time ever they've
mapped this out. Investing in more fossil fuels and limiting

(44:27):
the role out of wind and solar could cut five
percent from the electricity costs in Australia by twenty fifty now.
Obviously the trade off is that have to abandon all
the climate commitments, but they would have cheaper power, so
first time modeling. It's the National Science Agency. By the way,
the csiros not something you would expect from them. If

(44:49):
you do it with coal, you can do it for
one hundred and twenty four dollars per megawatt hour. If
you do it with wind and solar, it's one hundred
and thirty one dollars. So you asked your average Australian
which would you rather have? Would you rather have cheaper
power or more expensive power to save the planet. I
think I know where many Australians would go. So that's
the other thing we'll cover with Murray in about an

(45:11):
hour's time after the news, though, the new act candidate,
the question I should ask him is should we be
even interviewing him? Didn't interview Tane Randall, didn't interview Michael Laws.
Why are we interviewing Paul Henry? Why is Paul Henry different?
Is just another candidate and a wider election anyway. Paul
Henry as with us after the.

Speaker 1 (45:30):
News, Tough on Power, Sharp on Insight, the My Costing,
Breakfast with a Vita, Retirement, Communities, Life Your Way News, togs.

Speaker 2 (45:41):
Head be Pollo six Wednesday after date twenty three minutes
away from a very good day for actors. Their Paul
Henry announcement dominated the news. In the middle of a
quiet cycle at school holidays, he joins the doesn't have
to but wants to brigade in trying to drag this
country by its bootstraps, kicking and screaming back to the
place of some real pride, and Paul Henry's with us.
Good to see you. How are you, Mike, I'm extremely well.

(46:01):
I did ask before the news whether we should be
interviewing you, because I didn't interview Tane Randall, I didn't
interview Michael Laws. You're just another celebrity on the train
to Wellington, so why am I interviewing you.

Speaker 20 (46:13):
Well, for a start, I won't be taking a train.
I don't think either of us are trained people.

Speaker 3 (46:17):
Are we?

Speaker 20 (46:19):
I think because you appreciate that I am genuine, that
I really want to make a difference, and also you
appreciate how important it is that a difference has made.

Speaker 2 (46:30):
Here are the concerns I have for you, having known
you for many, many years. Converting yourself into a public representative,
it's a different thing. Being entertaining and witty is one
thing but being paid for by the public is different,
and they'll come for you.

Speaker 20 (46:47):
I've shaken three hands today I wouldn't normally have shaken.
You know, it changes you. You know it changes, and
I've changed already. This is my first full day as
a candidate for ACT. I mean, perhaps that's a bit
of a concern for me too, is it? Well, well
it should be. We are loaners, aren't we. When I say,
well and you're moving.

Speaker 2 (47:06):
Well, don't drag me. And but I feel uncomfortable room,
you know, to be fair to us, I said I
couldn't do. What I admire about what you've done is
I couldn't do it, and you and I are in
similar positions. We don't have to be here. We do
it for the love of it or whatever the thing is.
So so you are you have gone a step further
than I could ever do, because one, I'm not interested

(47:27):
in Wellington and the crap that comes with it. The
crep to fund ratio is wildly one side way out
about it. You're you're aware of all of this, I'm assumed.

Speaker 20 (47:38):
But yeah, but I haven't thought too much about it.
Maybe I should have thought more about it. I mean,
I have thought about the phenomenal commitment of years of life.
Because when you get to our age and we're ballpark
the same age, you know, you do look at your
own expediency. You know, you do look at mortality. And
if I'm looking at this, I'm looking at six years,
you know, looking forward, I've got to be prepared. If

(48:01):
this goes well, and I'm intended to, I've got to
be prepared to give up six years.

Speaker 16 (48:06):
Right.

Speaker 2 (48:06):
So what do you think you can do tangibly?

Speaker 20 (48:10):
I think with ACT I can tangibly affect change. I
think with ACT it is the only party that I
think can genuinely steer this country in the right direction.
By right direction, I mean create policies that inspire growth
of our economy, because our economy is perilously small, cut,

(48:31):
wasteful government spending in so many different ways, and hopefully
create an environment where by New Zealanders, I mean your
introduction was spot on. When New Zealanders aren't angsting, they're
not suspicious of everything all the time, I mean the
thing that holds New Zealand back. Because both of us
travel a lot, we can both see New Zealand with
a bit of perspective from offshore. What a brilliant country

(48:53):
with extraordinary resources and potential it is, so why is
it not being realized?

Speaker 2 (48:57):
Do you reckon? You have to get to an agent
stage to understand that.

Speaker 20 (49:00):
I think to a degree, I think that certainly helps.

Speaker 2 (49:02):
It's interesting, isn't it. Why not national? Because here's you're
on the problem. I know, why not national? But the
bigger party gives you the opportunity potentially to affect more change.
Well it should.

Speaker 20 (49:13):
The reason it doesn't is that they are paralyzed with
the fear that they will offside a voter who may
one day vote for them. They can't accept that, actually,
you need to get empower and you need to take
that advantage to actually affect change, to actually improve the
country for the long term. I mean, both of us
think about our children and grandchildren. Do you have grandchildren?

Speaker 2 (49:35):
Because I'm younger than you, Paul.

Speaker 20 (49:37):
Perilously, perilously small difference, But you will have grandchildren for
some reason, because you know you can protect your children.
You do think a little bit more about grandchildren. And
I seriously looked at the twins so two year old
birthday about a week ago, and I seriously looked at them,
and I thought, you know, just the backdrop to your upbringing.
The country that you're being brought up in is not

(50:00):
championing your success. It is not providing you with a
platform on which you can easily succeed and then congratulating
you for success and the hope that that will breed
success in others.

Speaker 2 (50:10):
It's very true. Part of the problem I have with
ACT at the moment, and the reason I think they're
stuck a bit in the polls is that what they
do is indisputably effective, but it's in a niche area
that the wider world isn't interested in, a political environment
in which headlines grab the attention and potentially the boats.
You know what I mean. Seymour will tell you a well,

(50:31):
look I fixed regulation and people go who keys.

Speaker 20 (50:34):
As soon as you say regulation.

Speaker 8 (50:36):
The audience is just.

Speaker 2 (50:37):
Exactly you know what I'm saying. Is that ACTS problem?

Speaker 20 (50:39):
Do you think I think there is a perception problem.
I think ACT has been working very, very hard in
this coalition and has achieved a huge amount, but they've
maybe spent a little bit more time working than actually
crowing about what they've achieved. And also, I would agree
with you that a lot of the very important things
that they've achieved that have at least nudget us in

(51:00):
the right direction and convinced national they should actually do something.
I think they are things that perhaps are not uppermost
in people's mind.

Speaker 2 (51:08):
What's your rules of engagement with with Seymour and co?
And the party in general? Because you will do something
moderately insane, possibly idiotic. I don't know that they thought
that through, right, So do you have a plan or
do they have a plan.

Speaker 20 (51:23):
Or well, just see how that goes. Let's see how
it goes. Do you think this is everyone's along for
this ride? Yes, But what I can tell you is
like this is this is my first full day as
a candidate. I am not fully o fay with every
single policy ACT has now has ever had. What I've
brought into is the philosophy. And the thing that I

(51:44):
love about ACT is that they have a very true
philosophy that they are rock solid and consistent with and
have always been. You know, there is no divergence between
my philosophy and their philosophy politically, do.

Speaker 2 (51:58):
You know the other players in the ACT party?

Speaker 20 (52:01):
Not really?

Speaker 3 (52:01):
No?

Speaker 2 (52:02):
Does that matter? Well, David, I know very well well
of course, But I mean do you know Karen Children?

Speaker 20 (52:07):
No?

Speaker 2 (52:08):
Does that matter? What do you think they'll make of you?

Speaker 20 (52:10):
I don't think well, I think they'll appreciate me.

Speaker 2 (52:13):
Is the no, they won't. To see the politics. The
politics of it is that you know you're walking into
a sniper's nest in Wellington, aren't you.

Speaker 20 (52:24):
Well, but I just saw Chloe just a few moments ago,
and she's.

Speaker 2 (52:28):
Nice, She's well nice, and she's nice to your face.
You's welcome, nice to she's nice to your face, welcome
to the circus team. Exactly what about your relationship with
the media. Is the media a problem?

Speaker 20 (52:40):
No more with me than they would be with In fact,
probably less with me than with other people. Because I
do understand the media. You think they'll turn Possibly? Yeah, possibly,
I mean you know I would hope not, because I
am beyond reproach. And the reason I am. Both of
us are now smiling. The reason I am beyond reproach
is that I'm doing it for all the right reasons.

(53:02):
You know, I know that I'm doing it for all
the right reasons. So if you want to have a
go at me, if you want to criticize me, you're
criticizing all the right reasons for me to be doing and.

Speaker 2 (53:10):
So in that see, I like people who do it
that don't have to joyce. As a very good example. Yes,
well Luckson's another example you would argue not doing as
well as perhaps not doing as well.

Speaker 20 (53:20):
I think Luckson's a great guy. I think as a
person really like, really like him, he hasn't resonated as
much as he should. I mean the numbers that Nationally on,
I mean it's their first term. This is totally unacceptable.

Speaker 14 (53:33):
The numbers.

Speaker 2 (53:33):
Well you say that, but I've got a thirty ten
and ten thing. So in other words, to get to
the government, you need about fifty percent. So you guys
will be on ten thereabouts. Peters will be on about ten.
Nationals on thirty. There's your numbers. I mean, so instead
of freaking out about National on thirty, that's probably in
an MMP environment where they should be because thirty, ten
and ten equals fifty.

Speaker 20 (53:52):
What I would not like to see is a really
strong New Zealand first in the coalition. You know, we
need some consistency, we need we really need to drive
home a change in direction. We've got to start, We've
got to start paying off debt. If this is a
vital Now, every election is vital, but some are more

(54:12):
vital than others. We really cannot sustain this country, Our
economy cannot sustain another left leaning government because we know
it will be a tax government, it will be a
borrow government, it will be a separatist government, and we're
in shitter's ditch at the moment financially.

Speaker 15 (54:28):
Good.

Speaker 2 (54:28):
Always good to see you.

Speaker 20 (54:29):
Great to see well. You say that we hardly ever
see each other.

Speaker 2 (54:32):
No, we don't see each other. But I enjoyed it.

Speaker 15 (54:33):
Well.

Speaker 2 (54:33):
I think it's a quality over quantity experience. Anyway, good
luck with it. He fourteen to two.

Speaker 1 (54:41):
The Mike Asking Breakfast Full Show podcast on iHeartRadio powered
by News Talks.

Speaker 2 (54:46):
It'd be Mike yes or no answer, and one you
don't have to answer on air while I kill Is
there a little piece of you wondering whether entering politics
could be an opportunity for you in the future. After
talking to Paul no dan No, I thought I made
that clear in the interview. What I admire about what
is done given where similar people have known each other
for decades and in similar situations. I can't do what
he's going to do and I think for me it

(55:10):
would be a mistake. I cannot be constrained by the
sort of environment that Wellington would see me constrained by.
I would end up saying something ridiculous and probably be sacked.
And I'm not ruling out the fact that Paul's not
going to end up in exactly the same position.

Speaker 8 (55:23):
Sure, he's set a stat of clock. I mean, it's
only a matter of time, show well.

Speaker 2 (55:28):
I mean, the interesting thing about Paul is he's got
the right party in terms of being able to get
elected high up the list or selected high up the list.
So if this government is he is going to parliament,
so he will become an MP. If he's an MP
within the government, if they get returned as government, he
will be a cabinet minister. So there are many parties
that you could join that you couldn't say the same thing.

(55:49):
So he is on a pathway and we wish him
the best with that pathway. But he's also got a
track record, and I think we all know what the
track record is.

Speaker 8 (55:55):
I mean, did he already do it? Like when he
said this.

Speaker 20 (55:57):
What I would not like to see is a really
strong New Zealand first in the coalition well, I love.
We need some consistency, we need we really need to
drive home a change in direction.

Speaker 2 (56:10):
All you can do is wish him well because he's
bruttally honest. What you hear is what you get, and
what you get is what you're hear. Very honest and
frank interview one hundred percent understand Mike, where Paul is
coming from. Mike, listening to your excellent interview with Paul
this morning gives me some hope he's entering for all
the right reasons. Mike, nothing new from Henry. We've heard
it all before. So the EO. He's dividing people, and
when you're dividing people, you know you're winning. A nine

(56:31):
away from eight.

Speaker 1 (56:32):
The Mic asking, Breakfast with a Vida, Retirement, Communities News,
togs Head bes Light.

Speaker 2 (56:37):
Six away from eighth. Scaler Up gave us all good
news yesterday. They lifted their annual profit forecast. The reason
seems to be America demand's robust and Terriffs didn't really
seem to make that much of an impact. Ground Leving
as the scaler Up CEO. He's back with us. Graham,
Morning to you.

Speaker 14 (56:50):
Good morning, Mike.

Speaker 2 (56:51):
Terriff's talk us through why haven't they affected you? Have
you sold through them?

Speaker 8 (56:57):
Yeah?

Speaker 7 (56:57):
A couple of things, Mike.

Speaker 21 (56:58):
I guess firstly, when we last gave our guidance in February,
the terraffs was still at a higher rate than they
are now. So in fact, the staff we released our
half year results, they dropped back to ten percent when
the IPA terrafts were reduced or removed and replaced whether
what they called the section one two two terrafts. So
terrats were a little bit lower, but also demands held

(57:20):
up more strongly in the market than we thought it might.
We thought the teriff impact the Middle East in conflict,
they might drive inflation and might dampen demand for US
in the US market, but that hasn't materialized.

Speaker 6 (57:31):
Demands continued to.

Speaker 21 (57:32):
Remain main strong and the nature of what we manufacture
and sell is often pretty critical to our customers, and
so we are able to adjust prices in response to
tariffs and raw material crist increases as well.

Speaker 2 (57:44):
That's interesting because we got an inflation readout of America
this morning. What's your read on America as I mean,
it seems fantastically resilient.

Speaker 21 (57:55):
Yeah, certainly that's the case for US, Mike, it's our
largest market and our farthest growing market for a number
of years, so it's one that we've continued to put
more people into, more resources and at the front end.
In the US importantly, I think we're viewed as a
US business, which is quite important, and the range of
applications and products that we sell are often very important

(58:18):
to the applications that our customers using.

Speaker 2 (58:21):
Them in our dollar helping.

Speaker 21 (58:24):
Yeah, at the margins, the dollars helped a little bit.
Of course, it's a risk that we heat, so the
hedging we have in places is slightly above what the
spot rights have been, but neat net at the margins.
It's been a slightly positive factor for us in twenty
six as well well.

Speaker 2 (58:41):
Congratulations and made the good news keep on coming. Ground
Leaming who is a scale up so they do? I
mean everyone thinks of scale up as gum boots, of course,
which is true they are, but they do potable water
and waste water and dairy and marine applications. So they've
got a lot of stuff going on these days, which
is encouraging.

Speaker 3 (58:56):
Mike.

Speaker 2 (58:56):
I like Paul Henry at least you'll never die wondering
what he thinks that part's true, and I think that
could be just the subtle difference. This is why a
lot of people had a lot of hope for Luxon,
because when you don't need to be somewhere, you just
you give it a crack, you go and give it again.
You know, you don't die wondering. And yet he hasn't
quite translated. And I think Luxon ran into trouble because
he didn't turn out to be Key. Key's a generational politician,

(59:20):
and Key had that lars a fair I'm here for
the right reasons, and I am what I am. Take
me or leave me, and people respond well to that.
I don't think Luckson's quite cracked the same trick. Henry
may well do, depending on how high up that the
totn Polly goes. But of course you got to argue,
as far as actors concerned, on day one and day
one and a half, if you want to make a splash,

(59:41):
if you want to get a headline, if you want
to get coverage, ten out of ten they didn't go wrong.
What about a bit of advice given potentially he's directly
into cabinet. What advice would Mark and Jinny give them
about being in cabinet and being in government More politics
Wednesday shortly.

Speaker 1 (59:56):
Opinion ed it informed, unapologetic, asking breakfast with Defender Trophy,
epic adventure, greater Purpose, news talks.

Speaker 7 (01:00:05):
There be I know we've never met, but you think
you know my name?

Speaker 2 (01:00:10):
Didn't you hear? Think about me? If that would be
a clad shame?

Speaker 7 (01:00:14):
Help to my as the.

Speaker 2 (01:00:16):
Fear and to my best?

Speaker 7 (01:00:17):
Can you think the scene about?

Speaker 2 (01:00:19):
Don't have to be something about these guys I love.
I never really followed them. I don't own any of
their music, any albums. Any see these and he screams nothing,
but I do love the Rolling Stones. Quarantines is the
new album. There's a couple of podcasts about the place
that you want to prevail yourself of At the moment, Mick,
Jagger and the Ron would all talk Heath, which is
I haven't seen as yet. Anyway, they knocked it out

(01:00:41):
in just a couple of weeks. A guy called Andrew
what was back? He did Hackney Diamonds with them. It
sounds admirably live and finishes with a question could they
go on forever? This album is just good enough to
make you imagine they could fourteen tracks over an hour
even after all these years, over an hour, one hour

(01:01:02):
and two minutes and twenty three seconds of the Rolling Stones.
It is eight minutes past say time for politics Wednesday,
and Mark Mitchell's with us along with Ginny Anderson. Morning
to both of you.

Speaker 16 (01:01:11):
Morning, Mike, Morning, Jinny, Mink you both.

Speaker 2 (01:01:14):
Yep, he's going to be told now now, Jinny, I
detect a I detect a hint of something in your voice.

Speaker 14 (01:01:24):
There, no no, just you know.

Speaker 22 (01:01:26):
I'm just reminiscing on my journey from out beat of
my parents' house in the taxi to your studio with
a bottle of wine when I got that call sing
to turn the taxi around and go back to my house.
That's what I was thinking about that.

Speaker 2 (01:01:38):
Super Now, Mark, you've turned up. It is your fault,
so you need to may a copper.

Speaker 16 (01:01:44):
Yeah, mere copper. So I was told we were going
to delay for a week, but obviously the message didn't
get through. So Ginny you apologized for that, right, But
we will reconvene in the studio again. Don't worry about it.
You're not going to miss it.

Speaker 22 (01:02:00):
I think there's like a little boy conspiracy going on here,
little kind of Mason's handshaken and not in a wink.

Speaker 2 (01:02:07):
No, I can assure you there is no conspiracy. Now listen,
let me get some advice from you Mark you first,
Paul Henry, So he will be potentially if you guys
get re elected, he'll be jettisoned and most likely into
cabinet straight away. So a bloke who's never been in
politics will potentially end up in cabinet. Your advice is what, Yeah,
I think that.

Speaker 16 (01:02:28):
Look, I mean he's got lots of life experience. The
bed a better democracy in New Zealand anyone can ever go. Yeah,
and that's a good thing. It's helpful. I think that
you should put some life experience when you become a
law maker because you've got to understand the impacts and
the effects that you have in people when you change laws,
and life experience helps you be equipped with that. You know,

(01:02:48):
it's not We have had people come into cabinet, you know.
Casey Costello is a good example, Stephen Joyce, who is outstanding.
He went straight into cabinet. So it does happen.

Speaker 2 (01:02:57):
Karen Shaw, Karen Shaw, Yes.

Speaker 16 (01:03:00):
I think she's a minister outside keebinet, but you.

Speaker 2 (01:03:02):
Know, well, yeah, but she's well The reason I'm asking
is the workload. Does he have any idea of what
he's in for.

Speaker 16 (01:03:08):
I think that you need to. You'll learn very quickly
exactly what's involved with the workload. It's a huge privilege
to be a minister. You go into politics to be
in government so that you can make positive change for
the country. But the reality is at seven days a
week and you just accept that and get on with it.

Speaker 22 (01:03:26):
What do you say, Ginny, i'd they read all of
your cabinet papers, not just the ones that pertain to
your portfolios. I think that makes a real difference between
a cabinet minister because there's so much reading to do.
If you really want to go as he sees and
make a difference and get in there, that's a huge opportunity.
But you get the opportunity to comment and have influence
over all of those papers at cabinet, not just the

(01:03:47):
ones that you bring, And if you invest the time
to understand what they're proposing, then you get a whole
lot more opportunity than what you would if you just
did your own.

Speaker 2 (01:03:56):
See that's the encouraging thing about that. That's just a
basic discipline. Reading is something thing anybody can do. What
about the massinations and the inner workings of a political
environment when you've never been in it.

Speaker 22 (01:04:07):
Well, I think that's going to be tricky to navigate
for him. And I think always when someone had a
really high profile outside of outside of parliament and then
comes into it, they do struggle a little bit. So
I think that will be the big challenge for him
to be able to show some discipline within his party,
because it's those relationships with your own colleagues and with
your own leader that are critically important to your success.

Speaker 2 (01:04:30):
What about the way you get into your party? If
I join your party tomorrow, Mark, and I go to
Luxon and I go, look, I'll get into politics, but
you've got to give me a decent spot on the list.
I'm not standing in an electorate and I need a
cabinet place. Is that possible within your party or do
you have a series of rules and regulations?

Speaker 16 (01:04:48):
Well, I mean if you're if you're expressly an interest
and we can.

Speaker 2 (01:04:50):
Find now, I believe that would be very popular. It's
it's just an interesting way to act operate, doesn't It's
the boards take your the less bang, yourate.

Speaker 16 (01:05:00):
No one hundred percent, and so every party's got a
list and every party will try to bring If they
see a gap and experience that they want and they
think they need in government, then they can use the
party list to do that. But outside of that, there's
a very robust process that happens to the national Party
where people have to put themselves up. They have to
convince delegates and delegates and normally members have been members
of the party for a long time and heavily invested

(01:05:22):
in the governments of the country, and it's not easy
to become a national party candidate.

Speaker 2 (01:05:26):
It's hard, and same with you, Jinny, Yeah it is.

Speaker 22 (01:05:30):
I mean we have on the ones I can think
of as someone as Margaret Wilson. She was part of
president first but then she went straight to tebnet. But
we know there is a process where it's regress and
I think it's got more regress as times got by
and as people have a history on social media that
needs to be checked and seeing what you've said and done.
So there's a big process to be in that position.
But of course, if someone represents a community really strongly

(01:05:53):
and that's an asset to the party and growing the
party wrote vote, then that's taken into.

Speaker 2 (01:05:57):
Account, And what about the celebrity side of it?

Speaker 16 (01:05:59):
Mark?

Speaker 2 (01:06:00):
In that sense, do you think that being a name
Tane Randall's another one, Michael laws is another one, Paul
Henry's the current one. Does it make any difference at.

Speaker 16 (01:06:08):
All on the margins? Maybe? But no, fundamentally, I don't.
I think that most quis actually sit down and have
a serious look and decide who's going to be the
best person to represent us. I mean, you know, especially
for a literally in P. I'm not trying to diminish
the role that listimps have. They have a role to
play without a doubt, but when you're literally in P,
people need to look and say, are you going to
actually seriously represent us in advance our needs as an electate?

Speaker 2 (01:06:31):
So what about you, Jinny?

Speaker 6 (01:06:33):
I don't know.

Speaker 22 (01:06:33):
I think someone who's got profile. New Zealand a small
place and we don't need a huge amount of people
who are well known. So I kind of think that
having a public profile before we go in helps is
an extra factor that gives you a bit.

Speaker 2 (01:06:46):
Of a lift. Would be a classic example of that.
I mean, any any old has been can turn up
on a council. I mean, if you've got a profiles.

Speaker 22 (01:06:57):
Bit rough, but yes, if you've got a public pro
file or you've been on TV before, your chances have
been elected a much higher. And I think too, what's
interesting is that we've seen quite a lot of that
this election from some of the smaller parties, that there's
been a bit more of a tendency, I would say
than previously of actually head hunting or getting new candidates

(01:07:19):
which who already has public profile.

Speaker 2 (01:07:21):
Hold that thought. Mike will take a brief break more
in a moment. Jinny Anderson fourteen past.

Speaker 1 (01:07:26):
The Mike Asking Breakfast Full Show podcast on Ihard Radio
powered by News Talks.

Speaker 2 (01:07:32):
It be News Talks at Me. Sixteen minutes past Ginny Anderson,
Mark Mitchell with US Politics Wednesday, the Opportunities Party, Ginny
five percent or no, I don't think we've done this,
and I think I've been meaning to do it. Five
percent or no.

Speaker 22 (01:07:46):
Unlikely but not impossible.

Speaker 2 (01:07:49):
No, that's probably true.

Speaker 16 (01:07:50):
What do you say, mate, It's just very hard to
reach it five percent through shot. You know it's showing
that if you get a literate seat then yes, you
know it doesn't matter so much, you don't need it.

Speaker 2 (01:07:58):
But have you talked Juny within the party of a
deal in Mount Albert. No, we have not done that.
Would you know if you had? Maybe?

Speaker 22 (01:08:10):
But no, I don't think we have.

Speaker 2 (01:08:12):
No, because that's the way in for the Opportunities Party.
If you wanted to coalesce with them, isn't it give
the giver Mount Albert she's and then say you get
three percent, she wins the seat three percent, maybe two
or three seats there in the Parliament. You've got two
or three to add to your maybe one or two
for the Marray Party and whatever Green's that up and
then bang your government.

Speaker 22 (01:08:31):
Yes, but that the uncertainty is that they could go
with each side.

Speaker 2 (01:08:34):
So you believe that, do you?

Speaker 22 (01:08:38):
They say that, Well that's what their leader says. So
that's what I mean.

Speaker 2 (01:08:42):
What part of land tax and universal income speak? It
speaks to a coalition with the actors and the National Party?

Speaker 16 (01:08:52):
Is it the at least Galloway running the show? An
ex slaver minister.

Speaker 2 (01:08:57):
Whose wife the people keep texting me, excuse me, is
Hipkins partner in the Opportunities Party?

Speaker 22 (01:09:05):
I don't think so, know.

Speaker 2 (01:09:06):
Okay, so that's just an urban myth.

Speaker 22 (01:09:09):
I no, I just no.

Speaker 2 (01:09:13):
Suddenly this is this is a spur of the moment
radio program. It just suddenly came back to me. So
is Hipkins's partner in the Opportunities Party? You don't think
she thinks?

Speaker 22 (01:09:21):
I really don't think she has not.

Speaker 16 (01:09:23):
So there was speculation that that she was partners with
or yeah, business partners with.

Speaker 2 (01:09:29):
So she's got a business.

Speaker 16 (01:09:30):
Well I do with in these Galloway.

Speaker 2 (01:09:33):
Yes, so Hipkins partner has a business with Ian Lee's gallery.

Speaker 16 (01:09:36):
That's what that's true.

Speaker 2 (01:09:38):
So that's not true. Genny says, that's not true. Mark says,
that's what's been reported. It could be an how Mark
made up?

Speaker 16 (01:09:48):
Mark?

Speaker 2 (01:09:49):
Mark made that up? So sorry, Mark? Where were you?
So it's hard to get five percent? Would you do
a deal in an in an electorate in that sense?
I mean you've done it with Seymour for example. So
would you look to Mount Albert and go, you know,
welcome in Joel?

Speaker 16 (01:10:03):
I mean again, that's you know that that is a
that's a decision for the Labor Party. So yes, we
did it with that. I think it was back when
I first came back from overseas. I remember it pretty
clearly because I remember the teapot tapes Yea and the
Huha and I spent two years, yeah, delivering the regional
elections there and over there they just put roadside bombs

(01:10:24):
and blew each other up. But you I came back
and we had the teapot tapes going. I thought, wow,
we live in paradise before we can talk about as
a teapot you know exactly.

Speaker 22 (01:10:34):
We've never typically done We've never typically done deals because
of what they did as well. I stidn't know how
to you in my first election in twenty fourteen where
I've got Peter done there in the national candidate say
his name. I can get up at debates and he
would just say hi. Everybody wouldn't say his names, but
no one knew to vote for, which was amusing.

Speaker 2 (01:10:52):
I'll watch it.

Speaker 16 (01:10:54):
I'm quite curious to see how count Vin Face goes
in the UK election.

Speaker 2 (01:10:57):
Yeah, that's your Vio election with runing Nigel for Nigel Faraj?
What are you going to do?

Speaker 5 (01:11:02):
Mark?

Speaker 2 (01:11:03):
About the list? So the list is interesting and a
hurry once again, it just reminded me. So Nicola is
not standing in a hurriu. No she's on the list. Well,
there is no hurry now, no sorry, I'm just going
back in time. But whatever a hurry is now, so
she's not standing, she'll presumably be number two or whatever
on the list. If you win enough electorates, there is
no list.

Speaker 16 (01:11:22):
No wells, the list will get sorted out by the party.

Speaker 2 (01:11:24):
We have a listen, no, no, no, I know that. But
if you win enough electorates, you won't go to the
list because you'll have the you know you'll have, say
you win thirty six electorates, you won't need to go
to the list because you've got to have your thirty
six and if you're only entitled to thirty six seats,
there's no list.

Speaker 16 (01:11:37):
Well that's I mean, that's crystal ball stuff. But at
the end of the day, we'll be running a very
very strong and hard party vote campaign because at the
end of the day, if you want a strong center
right government, then you need to give your party vote
to National.

Speaker 2 (01:11:50):
Well, hold on. I think Paul Henry just told me
that before, he said, if you want to I'm getting
mixed messages.

Speaker 16 (01:11:57):
Here will be theretic Act will be there, say off,
this will be there. But if you want a strong, stable,
center right government, then party vote National.

Speaker 2 (01:12:04):
Okay. In these Galloway has taken up a temporary role
as lead organizer for the New Zealand Nurses Organization, the
unit he worked out before becoming a politician. Started a
business venture called Here's Good. The venture, which he founded
with Tony Grace, has made it to the final of
the Innovative Startup Business competition. So there you gain all,
get on, there you go. So that's the story. Not
quite a scandal, Ginny. Now we'll put that one to bed.

(01:12:28):
Must to see both of you go well, and apologies
once again Jinny for the Come on.

Speaker 22 (01:12:33):
I think it's morning. I'm looking for wild flowers.

Speaker 2 (01:12:36):
Wine that might. Oh yeah, you came in with guests.
We can all go spearfishing. You want to come spearfishing
with Jinny.

Speaker 22 (01:12:46):
You put me in the water with you. That's a
great idea.

Speaker 2 (01:12:50):
Nice to talk to you, Jimmy Anderson, Mark. Nice to
see you as well. And you brought your winners in too,
which was nice to meet them. So they had a
there they see, they see happy with preceding starts. Absolutely,
that've worked all well. Have you brought them so many food?
And have you taken them out for breakfast?

Speaker 21 (01:13:05):
Oh?

Speaker 16 (01:13:05):
There you get breakfast?

Speaker 2 (01:13:06):
All right?

Speaker 16 (01:13:06):
Go the huge fans of yours so huge to be
able to come into the studio see how it all goes.
It's awesome.

Speaker 2 (01:13:12):
They're lovely people. Nice to see politics Wednesday Back next Wednesday.
It is eight twenty two.

Speaker 1 (01:13:17):
The Mic Hosking Breakfast with Defender Trophy, News Talks EDB.
The Mic Hosking Breakfast Full Show podcast on iHeartRadio powered
by News Talks EDB.

Speaker 2 (01:13:31):
Now, think about what most people spend the ninety bucks
a month on. Without a lot of thought. You could
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Hosking Spain v. France, Spain up to Nils.

Speaker 12 (01:14:24):
Although catch up to.

Speaker 2 (01:14:30):
It's happy to Spain.

Speaker 19 (01:14:37):
Look at those wild eyes.

Speaker 13 (01:14:44):
The world is opening up for this glittering Spanish cohort.

Speaker 2 (01:14:53):
You don't come back from that, do you?

Speaker 22 (01:14:55):
So?

Speaker 2 (01:14:55):
Spain's in the final. You have to say Spain's in
the final. And tomorrow it's England and Argentina. Let's go
to Australia. Shortly, Murray Olds is next here at Newstalks Zedby.

Speaker 1 (01:15:07):
You're trusted home for news, sport, entertainment, opinion and Mike
the Mic asking breakfast with Bailey's real estate. Your local
experts with national and global reach used talks.

Speaker 2 (01:15:19):
He'd be interesting business. AI will come to it in
the moment. Sixty nine percent of Americans poll out this morning,
sixty nine percent of Americans think forcing AI firms to
transfer fifty percent of their stock to a public sovereign
Wealth Fund. As from versite the tech playoffs are mounting.
Of course, they want to hold corporations to account. It's

(01:15:42):
a tool, they argue to distribute the games from the
AI industry back to broader society. I told you in
Australia the union that was asking for a twenty eight
hour week. Some of the ports are going increasingly techy,
driven by AI. So they're saying, well, if you're going
to if we're going to lose our jobs, give us
a twenty eight hour a week job, plus, don't give

(01:16:03):
us a cut and pay. The American version of sixty
nine percent of Americans think that AI firms should be
putting fifty percent of their stock into this public sovereign
wealth fund, and that money from AI and its success
gets distributed around the place. Twenty two minutes away from nine.

Speaker 15 (01:16:16):
International Correspondence with endsit Eye Insurance, peace of mind for
New Zealand business.

Speaker 3 (01:16:21):
Harry Oldens, Will it tell you, ma'am wedding Mike, Yeah,
very good morning. AI is a big, big story, isn't
it right now? It is?

Speaker 2 (01:16:28):
And what I can't understand with this big headline speech,
and they've made much of it today, they've sort of
built it up in a wool stand by. This could
be something. Is he going to do, we know, outline
what he sees as the law or what the law
will be, or is it just a generic kind of
here's what I'm thinking currently vibe.

Speaker 3 (01:16:44):
Well, look the only the best sauce I can find
that this yarn. It comes from the ABC and on
the service. It looks like a fairly standard boilerplate speech.
But you'd have to think for the Prime Minister to
step up at a major speech today, he's going to basically,
we understand, map out the government's plan to harness AI.

(01:17:05):
I don't know how you start doing that, I really don't,
but to harness AI to you know, there are things
like data centers that are things like media, like music,
like copyright jobs. All these things are now apparently under threat.
I don't pretend to understand what the heck's going on.
I'm too bloody old. But it's a brave new world
and it's scary for a lot of people. You know,

(01:17:28):
the federal government wants to wants to basically rain this
beast in to try and harness what it can provide
to benefit the economy, to benefit the country. Now that's
a hell of a big task.

Speaker 2 (01:17:40):
Mic, Yes it is, and no one else has cracked
it thus far. And he also does he not have
credibility issues because there's no shortage of people saying, well,
your social media thing didn't work either, And that's before
you get to American tech companies and Trump and tariffs
and anger and all that sort of stuff. So he's
got his work cut.

Speaker 3 (01:17:55):
Out, sure, does, no doubt about it. And you know,
as you say, credibility problems, not the least of which
is a bunch of broken budget promises. So yeah, look,
I mean he's got a huge margin in the parliament.
We've discussed this before, ninety four seats in the one
hundred and fifty seed parliament. Is he going to start
spending some of that capital? Looks like he is.

Speaker 2 (01:18:14):
Yeah, Well he started spending it in the budget that
didn't go well from either these numbers this morning from
the Budget Office, three hundred and thirty six billion dollars
of personal income tax more over the next decade. Do
Australians realize their pockets are being raided to quite this extent?

Speaker 3 (01:18:30):
No, of course, not absolutely not, And you know it's
it's all slight of hand. I mean most of us
just continue to live our lives like little mushrooms. You
pay to Axiom, you know, you pay the price at
the petrol pump, you go down to the you know,
the duopoly that really is supermarket shopping over here. You
know a leg of lamb and one and one said

(01:18:52):
market not much different in the other. So there's a
lot of stuff we don't understand and we don't care too.
I suspect most people don't get it. But you're right.
The Parliamentary Budget Office over here said, listen, you are
going to be completely rejigging. For example, the ndis the
National Disability Insurance schepe. You're going to be drowning in

(01:19:14):
cash when you try and save it. What and what
are you going to do with it? Well, Labour's plan.
It could be handing back some of that money in
tax cuts, or it could be paying it down for
future when you can bank that as Peter Costello did
all those years ago. I mean he started a super
ambitious program and you know, hey, presto, winding back government spending,

(01:19:37):
saving money where you can, and all of a sudden
he was in surplus as well. And it was you
know back then it was a signal achievement and it
was it was praised. My memory tells me pretty much
by everybody, both sides of the political divide. Whether the
charmers can do that, pull that rabbit, it remains to
be seen. But you know, surplace is always good. But
at the same time, you have to fund government programs

(01:19:59):
and the end is a huge one.

Speaker 2 (01:20:01):
Miney, that is true. The Telstra boss back from holiday
in front of the center. I mean, what are they
going to do? Your Senate hearings operate the same way
they do in America, where the senators just go You're useless,
and you're being useless forever. I ask questions.

Speaker 3 (01:20:16):
There are some significant, some very significant questions he has
to ask. Telstra made billions and billions of dollars in
profit last year. The boss of Telster earned six point
seven billion Australian dollars a year. If you believe what
was spelled out after that the outage last week all

(01:20:38):
over the country. Telstrap knew it has this, it's about
a twenty thousand dollars component and it stopped working. It
blew up, and what happened It sent every digital clock
back twenty years and that's what the cause of the
outage was. Yeah, they got it back online. But here's
the question. If you're drowning in that sort of cash,

(01:20:58):
if you can pay your chief execut him six point
seven million dollars, why are you not investing? Why is
all your money going to your shareholders and not to
the tech up grades? And that's what this was. It
was a tech upgrade that went wrong, and there's going
to be There'll be some fireworks on Friday.

Speaker 2 (01:21:13):
I can assure you that is true. Noted the ratings
were yesterday in radio Land. I'm sure. I'm sure you
did very well there at a two GB Murray. But
the I noted that Sandalin's old station, Kiss, they're down
to a He was like a twelve thirteen, you know
when he was there, and he's down to a seven.
So he's killed the place. But I'm just interested because

(01:21:35):
I'm following Carl Steffanovic with a great deal of interest,
and he I don't know if you know, but he
doesn't from what I've seen of his podcast, so he
doesn't strike me as engaging. He's not I mean, say
whatever you want about Kyle, he's moderately entertaining, you know,
what I mean, you might, Yeah, you know what I'm saying,
And so you think I might tune into that guy Carl,
He's just like, he's got nothing to say.

Speaker 3 (01:21:55):
He's a winder. He's a winder. And you know the
tap got turned up by Channel nine. Well more, a
much bigger tap got turned off for Kyle Sandalands. But
as you say, he's mildly entertaining. He's getting on with life.
He's got a couple of things on the go. We
understand as a series being shot up to six episodes.
We're told at Home with Kyle. It takes us deep

(01:22:16):
into the heart of the Kyle Sadalanz family and we
see the real Kyle. Okay, he's also got a Kyle
Sandalans Live. It's a it's a streaming show. Now, none
of these programs is going to generate a fraction of
the cash he was on. But he did get fifteen
million dollars to walk away, so I don't think too

(01:22:36):
many people are going to be too upset for him,
Poor old Kyle.

Speaker 2 (01:22:40):
Nice to see mate, We'll see Friday appreciate it. Murray Olds. Yeah,
the Raisings of Australia. So they've crashed basically, so they've
got a twofold problem. The problem number one is he's
got to find work and make a living. Problem number
two is they've got to find a replacement for him,
and to this point they haven't, and so they're losing
audience left, right and center. And along with the one
assumes a lot of advertising revenue. Murry olds back on Friday.

(01:23:00):
It's eight forty five.

Speaker 1 (01:23:03):
The Like Asking Breakfast Full Show podcast on iHeartRadio powered
by News Talks at.

Speaker 2 (01:23:08):
BAH twelve from nine. If you want to read an
interesting piece, it does come from the leftish leaning media
in Australia. This was out of the polling this week
where the shine's gone off Hanson. We talked to Murray
about it a couple of days ago. As a result
of that, if Hanson fades, this four week stretch will
be remembered for the mistakes that brought her down. It's
a bit early to write the article. It's an interesting observation,

(01:23:29):
probably worth following if you're following the overall story. In
other words, the theory of it is is that she
was a rock star. It was all going fabulously well
un till she turned up at the Press Club in
Australia opened her mouse said a lot of random stuff
and people went, oh is that what she's about? Oh, well,
then mine, And so ever since the poll number has
been going backwards. But of course, given the media, or
so much of the media in Australia, they want her
to fail, so they leapt on the numbers this week

(01:23:52):
and milk them for all their worth. National you want
an election policy, why not, I've got for you this morning,
fresh off the National Party press release machine qualified engineers.
This is all to do with building. They've done quite
a bit in building. The government has done quite a
bit of building. I don't know how much is National,
how much is Act, how much is New Zealand verst
or a commodation of all three. But they made it

(01:24:13):
easier to build buildings. You can put a little granny
flat in your house and you don't need a whole
lot of council people wandering around the place, and you
can put it a bit closer to the fence than
you used to and stuff. All of that stuff makes
perfect sense, and good on them today's movers in the
commercial space. Qualified engineers are going to be able to
sign off certain building without needing a council inspection. Good.
Fewer council people on your property, the better it might.

(01:24:34):
That's just a bit of life advice. If I ever
ran for Parliament like Paul Henry, the first thing I'd
say is what we need a fewer council people on
your property and if not anywhere, if not anywhere, and
that would immediately make me popular. I think also designate
a specialist building Consent authority to engage through a single
nationally consistent pathway for consents. Now there's your key, single
nationally consistent pathway for consents. It is a minefield depending

(01:24:59):
on where in the country you're dealing with the authorities,
so they can make that a one stop shop. Brilliant
construction sector employees about ten percent of the workforce in
this country, six percent of the GDP. So they've done
a bit in the domestic space. They're doing now more
in the commercial space, and on that we wish them
the best night away from nine the.

Speaker 1 (01:25:18):
Light Losking Breakfast with Bailey's Real Estate News dog z'd be.

Speaker 2 (01:25:22):
You know, in this country, we like backing our own
local hairdresser, local cafe knows your coffee order trade year
you've used for years. We like dealing with people who
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And at Milford are the people managing that key We
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Everyone at Milford is personally invested in growing the wealth
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(01:26:04):
future performance. Investment involves risk and returns can be negative
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disclosure statement tasking what you think of AI changing the
way the world works? What about diamonds to Beers have

(01:26:25):
overnight announced the suspension of their biggest mine in South
Africa for two years. Fewer people are buying diamonds. Why
because they're buying lab grown diamonds. This is the niche
of mine far north of South Africa accounts for more
than forty percent of the country's diamond production. So you
have to employs four thousand people. So you imagine the
economic impact of simply taking the largest mine in South
African Going, guys, we're closed, Thank you very much for

(01:26:46):
becoming Everyone's buying lab grind and lab grime's a fraction
of the cost of the real diamond, and so the
diamond industry is in complete and utter turmoil. Rough diamond
price has basically harved in the last three four years
because you can go out and buy a lab grind
for just literally a fraction of the price. The times
they are a changing. That's the other thing I'd say

(01:27:08):
if I entered into politics like Paul Henry, I'd open
up with I tell you what, folks, the times they
are a changing, and people would not go He's one
for the future. Five minutes away from nine Trending.

Speaker 1 (01:27:20):
Now Warehouse your home of winter essentials.

Speaker 2 (01:27:24):
Now pop quiz, what is the longest running number one
single by a British act on the UK charts. You
know the funny think about the song I couldn't have
named who did it? I mean, obviously I know I

(01:27:45):
know the song. Then it's love actually, but it's wet, wet,
wet wet. If they made a comeback, would it be wet, wet,
wet wet.

Speaker 8 (01:27:56):
It'd be a sweet little mystery, that's what it'd be.

Speaker 2 (01:27:58):
Wet again. That was number one for sixteen weeks back
in nineteen ninety four. Jeez, it was on there for
that record's been held for thirty two years. And you
know where I'm leading here? I mean, there's no falling
here was there? You know where I'm You know where
I'm head here. That's right. There is a new that's right,
there's a new record holder. Guess what. I've a fascination

(01:28:27):
with Olivia Dean at the moment. That's just slightly out
of Kilton. I think it was just a on a
fascination slash talent quotient. I just don't see it's such.

Speaker 8 (01:28:37):
A Wendy winey New Zealand tool poppy fingers say, but.

Speaker 2 (01:28:41):
We're going to change that once we're in government, Glenn.
The times are changing, The times are changing. Sam Fender
and Olivia Dean rain me In. That's now been number
one for seventeen weeks on the UK charts. That puts
it now actually interestingly tied for the all time record
by any artist. Cheers Brian Adams. Everything I do I

(01:29:04):
do for you. I wonder if that was a time
and play song. You know good?

Speaker 8 (01:29:09):
Yeah, a good wedding songs, as is the Wet Wet
Wet one. And I know that the Wet Wet one
is because I used to it at my.

Speaker 2 (01:29:17):
Wedding thirty years ago.

Speaker 3 (01:29:19):
Yep.

Speaker 2 (01:29:21):
Would you use it again?

Speaker 8 (01:29:22):
Well, I wouldn't use the Olivia Dean sam Fender one.
I don't rain me in. I don't think that's a
message you want.

Speaker 2 (01:29:27):
To damn right. Would you also sing again like you
did at your last wedding? Would you do that? And
would you break out the.

Speaker 8 (01:29:32):
Karaoke probably the same song again?

Speaker 2 (01:29:35):
Back tomorrow morning from six as always.

Speaker 1 (01:29:43):
For more from the Mic Asking Breakfast, listen live to
news talks. It'd be from six am weekdays, or follow
the podcast on iHeartRadio

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