Jeffery Pryce: Foreign Policy Institute Fellow on Trump's latest Iran threats

Trump's latest threats in the war with Iran are targeted towards Iran's energy fields. 

The threat comes with a deadline demanding Iran reopen the strategic Strait of Hormuz by Monday night (tomorrow morning NZT).

Foreign Policy Institute Fellow Jeffery Price told Mike Hosking he's not convinced the threat is anything other than a negotiation tactic. 

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
So fast moving developments as epic fury in as it's
fourth week, the forty eight our ultimatum will expire early
afternoon tomorrow our time the strike opens, or Iran's power
plants will be obliterated. Apparently. Jeffrey Price, Senior Fellow at
the Foreign Policy Institute John Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies,
is beck, Well, it's Jeffrey morning.

Speaker 2 (00:17):
Good morning, and good morning to everybody in New Zealand.

Speaker 1 (00:19):
So this forty eight hours is that brought about from
Prissia or is it part of the plane.

Speaker 2 (00:25):
So it's I don't want to predict exactly what President
Trump's strategy is, but he has used this strategy before
of using a deadline and as a pressure tactic in negotiations.
So we will see in pastic experiences sometimes the deadlines
are extended. But clearly he has focused most recently on

(00:47):
opening the straits of horror moves. But if you look
at his truth social people have noted that just the
day before he had a different post which was about
conditions that might lead to the winding up of the
military operation. Those included a lot of military objectives protecting
our allies, and not a lot about say, regime change

(01:12):
or or changing the sort of the conduct of the
Iranian regime within its borders. So it might just be
a negotiating strategym we'll see. There's just hours left on
that clock, but it might it might well get extended.

Speaker 1 (01:28):
What's your thinking on the strike? It seems inexplicable to
me they didn't think of this or is this just
turned into a bigger mission than they thought it could
ever turn into?

Speaker 2 (01:39):
That is the question you always think of the straits
of horror movies. I mean, I think one analysis is
that in previous hostilities with Iran, the objectives have been
more limited and Iran's response has been more limited. When
we took out General Sillimani there was a very limited response.
Even Operation mid Night Hammer last year, where we took

(02:01):
out some of their nuclear facilities, there was a very
measured response. But as you say in the Pentagon, the
enemy gets a vote, and this operation seemed to be
maximums aimed at regime change and got a furious response
from Iran. And they've shown they're able to respond symmetrically

(02:22):
when they want to. When Israel hits a gas field,
they hit a gas field and gutter when Israel strikes
a nuclear facility. They just recently hit a nuclear facility
in Israel, but also asymmetrically taking advantage of their own
unique situation, and the Straits of our MOUs is definitely
a major pressure point. So I think that, you know,
the conclusion of this conflict will have to take account

(02:46):
of the of the incredibly important part that straight place
in global energy markets.

Speaker 1 (02:51):
I'm assuming these marines that are coming on the Tripoli
will grab cog and they'll squeeze them. That wise that
you're thinking or no.

Speaker 2 (02:59):
We will see that it would be a new step
because once you put troops on the ground, you are
facing a whole new level of risk. There's a number
of things that people have speculated that marines might be
used for. There's carg Island, which is very important for
Iran's energy exports. There's the potential of further securing the

(03:20):
Straits of Horror moves, and there's also you know the
issue of the Iranian nuclear sort of the nuclear material
that they have stalked about some four hundred and forty
kilos of that. I mean, it seems to me that
the best outcome on that is it's much easier to
secure that nuclear material if we reach some sort of agreement.

(03:41):
I'm hoping it comes to that. I'm hoping it does
not come to troops on the ground.

Speaker 1 (03:45):
You and me, boys, Jeffery, appreciate it. We'll stay in touch.
Jeffrey Pross, who's out of John Hopkins worts this morning.
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