Keir Giles: Chatham House Senior Expert on Russia on Ukraine's need for security on the border for a ceasefire deal

There's scepticism over whether European countries would be willing to provide more security in Ukraine. 

US President Donald Trump has warned of imposing high levels of sanctions, taxes and tariffs on Russia to try to force a ceasefire deal. 

Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelenskky says any deal would need at least 200,000 peacekeepers on the border. 

But Keir Giles —a Russian expert with international think tank Chatham House— told Ryan Bridge countries are worried about how much taking an interest in their own defence would cost them. 

He says that's been one of the main concerns in Europe with Trump's re-election, and his promise he may not meet the US's NATO commitments when called upon. 

LISTEN ABOVE 

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
So Trump is threatening tariffs overnight, He's threatening sanctions against Russia.
He wants the war with Ukraine ended, he wants it over.
And there was a real casual exchange yesterday in which
he said that Vladimir Putin appeared to be not doing
so well when it comes to dealing with the war
in Ukraine. And Kiir Charles is a senior expert on
Russia at Britain's Prestigiou Chatham Houses with us this morning.

Speaker 2 (00:22):
Good morning, hello, good morning.

Speaker 1 (00:25):
Is this threat going to work?

Speaker 2 (00:27):
Well? We have to see what Trump actually does as
opposed to what Trump actually says as always, and at
the moment, people are clutching at straws. They're trying to
guess exactly which way Trump might jump and what he
may or be able to do to fulfill his promise
of bringing this war to an end. They've towursted. Its
encouraging for those people who feared that what he was
going to do was put maximum pressure on Ukraine to

(00:48):
knuckle under and bring the major fighting to a close
by effectively trying to force a surrender of Ukraine. This
looks like a more even handed approach to trying to
get both sides to find some way of ending the fighting.
But this still the danger that people fear that he
may try to bring off some kind of ceasefire that
doesn't address the underlying conflict. So it just gives Russia

(01:08):
a chance to rebuild its forces for another go, which.

Speaker 1 (01:10):
Is why overnight you hear Zelenski talking about the need
for two hundred thousand Allied troops at the border. Should
there be a piece steel done.

Speaker 2 (01:19):
There are lots of ideas being thrown around for how
exactly Ukraine could perhaps some kind of security guarantees, some
way of deterring Russia from attacking again. And the way
this has worked across that western frontier of Russia, the
way NATO has ensured this is by having multinational contingents
in those forward NATO agents. It's the same formats that's

(01:40):
being proposed for Ukraine. Of course, the other question is
how many European countries are actually likely to sign up
to that, and that's a far harder issue. Who exactly
is going to guarantee the security of Ukraine against Russia?

Speaker 1 (01:52):
Well not President Trump.

Speaker 2 (01:55):
Absolutely not. And that's really focused the minds of Europe,
particularly West in European countries where there's been a bit
of a wave of panic after Trump arriving because they're
suddenly faced with the reality that they have to take
an interest in their own obligations to defend their own
countries instead of, as Trump quite rightly points out, freeloading
on the United States for the last few decades, and

(02:16):
so because that is such a huge challenge to their
own economies, because they've not been willing to do that
for so long. That of course has really been one
of the main things that has caused people concerned with
Trump arriving and this promise that he may not meet
the United States's NATO commitments if called on to do so.

Speaker 1 (02:34):
Fascinating stuff. Kea, thank you so much for your time. Kijiles,
the senior expert on Russia at Britain's prestigious Chatham House.
For more from The Mic Asking Breakfast, listen live to
news talks it'd be from six am weekdays, or follow
the podcast on iHeartRadio.