Matthew Schmidt: New Haven University National Security Expert on the ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran

A US national security expert believes Iran is gaining leverage out of the ceasefire, showing it can open and close the Strait of Hormuz at will. 

“The real question here is: what is Iran holding back?”, New Haven University's Dr Matthew Schmidt told Mike Hosking. 

“Can they restart their threats over the Strait of Hormuz six weeks from now, two weeks from now, right, six months from now?” 

Gulf states were “desperate” for the strait to open and to have Iranian drones and missiles under control.

"They're being fired directly at their oil and gas facilities, which are going to cost hundreds of billions of dollars - if they are taken offline - to restart.” 

The key question was what would happen in two weeks’ time - whether Iran would “flex their muscles” and threaten to close the strait, or control which ships could travel through. 

Schmidt believed the Iranian regime was weakened and would not last long-term, but it could still be in control for a decade or more. 

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Like so many Middle East conflicts. Of course, it was
all on till it wasn't you cease fire underway two
weeks initially, but it won't be the end of it
at that point of course. Doctor Matthew Schmidt is the
Director of International Affairs and national security expert at new
Haven University.

Speaker 2 (00:11):
Is back with us.

Speaker 1 (00:11):
Good morning to you, Good morning. So it started with
regime change, ended up with a body of water that
no one saw coming. Where do you reckon it goes? Now?

Speaker 2 (00:20):
I think we're in a holding pattern. This is a
classic sort of negotiate to pause install. The real question
here is what is Iran holding back? Right? Can they
restart their threat over this trade of Hormuz six weeks
from now, two weeks from now, right, six months from now?

Speaker 1 (00:38):
Where does the where do the Gulf States fit into this?
This is all about America the Iran, but the Gulf
States make a living out of this bit of water
where the base fit.

Speaker 2 (00:48):
They are desperate to have the states open. It's economically
vital to them. And they're also desperate to have Iranian
you know, drones and missiles under control because they're being
fired directly at their oil and gas facilities. Which are
going to cost hundreds of billions of dollars if they
are taken offline to restart. And so there's a huge

(01:11):
economic motivation here to end the war.

Speaker 1 (01:13):
Indeed, there is how much white do you give the
theory that Iran's basically exhausted America desperately needed an off
rent because there were too many cock ups involved. In
other words, they both happy this is over and they'll
sort of play out in peace talks.

Speaker 2 (01:25):
To some degree, I'm skeptical, and I'll tell you why.
That's why you have you on the show. I think
Iran is actually gaining leverage out of this, that they
are able to show that they are in control and
can close and open the street their will not according
to us, will or anybody else's in the region. And

(01:47):
we haven't seen that be proven to be untrue yet.
And so what happens in two weeks is really the question.
Will Iran flex their muscles and say we can close
the straight down again, or will Iran say that's fine,
we'll leave it open, but we control what ships come through.
Or will Iron say again in six months when something
else changes that they decide to flex their muscles and
close the straights down, so their hand is still, you know,

(02:10):
on the tiller as it were.

Speaker 1 (02:11):
What about the Ibrahamic colds and you spread the live
and you get a bit of revenue, and you spread
it a live of the region. It's the golden eyeges
Trump Woodside sit. Is there any possibility of that, Yes.

Speaker 2 (02:22):
But that doesn't necessarily change the calculus for the regime
in Tehran. I think the regime in Tehran is weakened.
I think that they're not likely to last in the
long term, but the midterm can be a long time.
It can be you know, a decade or a couple
of decades that they retain control that The calculus is
very difficult here because I Ran only needs some small

(02:46):
subset of thrones or missiles or speedboats right or artillery
on shore to be able to shut that straight down.
And we would have to be able to take out
all of it right in order to guarantee that those
shifts can go through. And all Iron has to do
is raise the insurance cost. If it makes Lloyd's of
London increase the cost of put tankers through that straits,

(03:09):
we're going to feel it at the gas pump.

Speaker 1 (03:10):
How politically, damaged. Is Trump? Do you think out of this.

Speaker 2 (03:15):
I think this was a huge political mistake for the administration.
I'm a farm kid from the Central US, and right
now this month, you have farmers who are putting on
fertilizer for crops wheat that's going to be harvested in July,
and those prices are up almost thirty I think thirty
eight percent when I last looked at it. And that's

(03:37):
not going away. And that's Trump's political base, and so
people in his own party are deeply worried that this
is locked in a really bad outcome for the November midterms.

Speaker 1 (03:48):
I'm not surprising, all right, matthe you appreciate your up
to Doctor Matthew Schmidt once again director of International Affairs
National Security at New Haven University. We've enjoyed a six
percise over the last six weeks. For more from the
Mic Housking Break, first, listen live to News Talks at
b from six am weekdays, or follow the podcast on iHeartRadio.