Mike's Minute: Is National a victim of success?

Here is an irony for you. 

Could it be that the Prime Minister, the one so disliked by the media, is actually so good at his job that his numbers are a result of his excellence? 

The pollster David Farrar has broken down the NZ First poll numbers this week. 

Now, small warning – the NZ First poll numbers are not accurate given NZ First went up 4%, which is a 30%-ish swing in their favour. 

As I said this week, parties don’t go up or down at that rate ever. But it is true to say NZ First is on a bit of a roll. Multiple polls show a growth in support. 

Farrar's breakdown showed the majority of the new support has come from National. 

Why? Well NZ First for some will be what National aren't: straight up and down, hard arse and no nonsense. Winston Peters and Shane Jones tell it like it is and in a divided world there is an appeal to that. 

There was a good piece in the Sydney Morning Herald reporting the same thing. Major parties have cocked it up for decades, so Pauline Hanson comes along and it's her time to shine. 

Back here, what has Luxon got to do with it? Well, whether you support the Government or not, he has held together a very successful collab, with three parties for the first time ever in an official arrangement. 

They work together and get along together and that has brought faith in the idea that you can have MMP and small parties can not only survive but prosper. All three parties will go to the election this year in good standing. 

You have not been able to say that in the MMP era before. From the Alliance Party to the Māori Party, to the Greens, to NZ First themselves, all minor parties have previously suffered, if not vanished, while in Government or in Government arrangements. 

The Luxon CEO approach, open to much media derision, has in fact paid dividends, so much so that his own party might have bled support. Such is the confidence he has been able to foster in a mature and adult arrangement, whereas the election draws closer, it isn't every man for himself. 

Ironically, it's the downside to success. But as I said earlier this week, the days of major parties being well into the 30s is going, if not gone. You can't have 10-12% smaller players and hold 35%+. The numbers don’t work. 

If the left ever got a solid third player, Labour would face the same issue. 

National won't be enjoying this truth. But if you're an MMP fan, the maturity of what we have seen this past two and a bit years cements the future for potentially stable and adult Government. 

It's the model as to how it should be done. 

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
So here's an irony for you this Friday morning. Could
it be that the Prime Minister, the one so disliked
by the media, is actually so good at his job
his numbers are a result of his excellence. See the Polster.
David Farrer has broken down this week's pole the Courier poll.
He's broken down the New Zealand First pole numbers now
small warning the New Zealand First pole numbers are not
accurate in my humble opinion, given the New Zealand First

(00:21):
have gone up four percent, that's a thirty ish percent
swing in their favor parties. As I said this week,
don't go our poor down at that rate ever, but
it is true to say New Zealand First has been
this year on a bit of a role. Multiple poles
show growth and support. Fara's breakdown showed the majority of
that new support is coming from National Why well, New
Zealand First for some will be what National art, straight

(00:44):
up and down, hard ass, no nonsense. Peters and Jones
tell it like it is. It's a divided world and
there's an appeal to it. Good piece yesterday, by the way,
in the Sydney Morning Herald reporting the same thing major
parties are basically cocked it up for decades. Pauline Hansen
comes along, it's her time to shine back here. What
is like and got to do with this? Well? Support
the government or not. He's held together a very successful

(01:05):
collap three parties, first time ever in an official arrangement.
They work together, they get along together, and that has
brought faith in the idea that you can have MMP
and small parties can not only survive, but actually prosper.
All three parties will go to the election this year
in good standing. You've not been able to say that
in the MMP era before, from the Alliance to the

(01:26):
may Party, that the Greens to New Zealand first themselves.
All minor parties have previously suffered, if not vanished while
in government or in government arrangements. The luxe and CEO approach,
opened to so much media derision, has in fact paid dividends,
so much so his own party might have led support
such as the confidence he's been able to foster in
a mature and adult arrangement. Whereas the election draws closer.

(01:49):
It wasn't every man for himself as it has been
every other election. Ironically, the downside to the success but
for National. But as I said earlier this week, the
days of major parties well into the thirties is going,
if not gone. You can't have ten to twelve percent
smaller parties and hold thirty five plus. The numbers simply
don't work. If the Left ever got a solid third player,

(02:09):
Labor would have the same issue. National won't be enjoying
this truth, of course, But if you're an MMP fan,
the maturity of what we've seen this past two and
a bit years cements the future for potentially stable in
adult government. It's the model as to how it should
be done. For more from the Mic Asking Breakfast, listen
live to news talks that'd be from six am weekdays,

(02:30):
or follow the podcast on iHeartRadio