Mike's Minute: Week one of the war

Where are we at with the war? 

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard makes a very compelling case that this thing is over in four weeks because that’s about when the petrol reserves in America get drained. The Strait is closed, no LNG is getting through, Trump cannot tolerate $100 a barrel and so he will capitulate. 

China can hold out. The Iranians, if they have kept a bunch of attack drones back, can hold out too, then go for some fuel sites in Arab states. You see his theory? It's not to be dismissed. 

But that’s not the only scenario. Bluster aside, and there is plenty of that from the White House, it does seem, as far as these things go, to be going well. 

The navy is gone, commercial planes are slowly flying again, Israel seems devastatingly effective in Lebanon, and the Kurds are in place with CIA-supplied weaponry, ready to jump the border. 

Whether the people rise up, when that happens, I have no idea, which could lead you to believe that what we end up with is not a complete transition but more a half-baked mess with vacuums and disorder. But a country that looks radically different to what it looked like a year ago, and with a decimated ability to be a nuclear threat, could be sold by Trump as a win. 

Of course, the people could rise, alongside the Kurds, storm the barracks, get the Shah's son ensconced and it's what, loosely, you would call a complete victory, which would be historic if you’ve followed the story of American interventionism. 

The cold, hard truth though is Trump in election year cannot afford to lose. So as make-shift and spontaneous as this may appear to some, he is not an idiot and never underestimate his passion for self-preservation.  

It's why, by the way, for those who worry, Russia and China are nowhere to be seen for their Iranian friends. 

Self-interest is the greatest weapon and motivator of all. 

If this works though, as in the Iranian regime we have known with its killing and evil is wiped off the face of the Earth, then everyone from Macron to Starmer to Clark to Hipkins will be working hard to explain why sitting around for decades gasbagging about how unacceptable it is and yet achieving nothing, is somehow a more effective strategy than actually taking the problem and solving it. 

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
That's right at the war Where are we at? Ambrose

(00:01):
Evans Pritchard read. It makes a very compelling case that
this thing is over in four weeks, because that's about
when the petrol reserves in America get drained, the strait
is closed, No L and G is getting through. Trump
cannot tolerate one hundred dollars a barrel and will capitulate.
China can hold out. The Iranians if they have kept
a bunch of attack drones back, can hold out to
then go for some fuel sites in the Arab States.

(00:22):
You see as theory, it's actually not to be dismissed.
But that's not the only scenario. Bluster a site, and
there is plenty of that coming out of the White House.
It does seem as far as these things go, to
be going well. The Navy is gone, commercial planes are
slowly flying again. Israel seems devastatingly effective in Lebanon. The
Kurds are in place with CIA supplied weaponry ready to

(00:43):
jump the border. Whether the people rise up when that happens,
I've got no idea which could lead you to believe
that what we end up with is a well, not
a complete transition, but more a half baked mess with
vacuums and disorder, but a country that looks radically different
to what it looked like a year ago, and with
a decimated ability to be in US clear threat that
could be sold by Trump as a win. Have a

(01:04):
look at what Condoleeza Rice said about that yesterday. She
makes sense. Of course, the people could rise along with
the kurd storm, the barracks, get the Shah's sun ensconced,
and it's what loosely you would call a complete victory,
which would be historic if you followed the story of
American interventionism over the years. The cold hard truth, though,
is Trump an election year, cannot afford to lose. So

(01:26):
as makeshift and spontaneous this may appear to some, He's
not an idiot and never underestimate his passion for self preservation.
It's why, by the way, for those who worry the
reason Russia and China are nowhere to be seen for
their Iranian friends, self interest is the greatest weapon and
motivator of all. If this works, though, as in the
Iranian regime, we have known, whether it's killing an evil

(01:46):
is wiped off the face of the earth, then everyone
from Macron to starm at a Clark to Hepkins will
be working very hard to explain why sitting around for
decades on end gas bagging about how unacceptable it all is,
and yet achieving nothing is somehow a more effective stategy
than actually taking the problem and solving it. For more
from The Mic Asking Breakfast, listen live to News Talks

(02:07):
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