Paul Spoonley: Massey University Sociologist on NZ's population increasing by 0.8% as the gap between birth and death rates narrow

The gap between the number of births and deaths is narrowing. 

Latest Stats NZ data shows there was about 15 hundred fewer births in the year ending in March, and 170 more deaths. 

The fertility rate has dropped from 1.58 births per woman to 1.53 and the infant mortality rate is also down.  

Massey University sociologist Paul Spoonley told Mike Hosking at some point the number of births will equal the number of deaths. 

He says that's never happened before, except for during one-off events like the Black Death in Europe. 

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Back to these population numbers. What a we got. We
grew a little bit in the last twelve months. Forty
three thy five hundred joined the gang. Five point three
six million ubers now fifteen hundred and twelve fewer berths.
We've talked about that before. Of course. Paul Spoonley as
massa University sociologist and is back with us. Paul, good morning,
Good morning. Make So zero point eight was the number?
Is that a lot historically or not? Really?

Speaker 2 (00:22):
No, it's not really. It's dipped and that's largely because immigrations.

Speaker 1 (00:26):
Is dipped and berths. We talked about that last time
you're on the program. This is for now what it
is that that's not changing?

Speaker 2 (00:34):
Is it? It is?

Speaker 1 (00:35):
No?

Speaker 2 (00:35):
Well it is changing. Make it's going down.

Speaker 1 (00:37):
So well that's what I me. It's like, we're not
y I glow with births.

Speaker 2 (00:42):
No, no, no, we're not. And the other thing that
came out yesterday is that the gap between births and
deaths is narrowing. So at some point the number of
births we have in New Zealand will equal the number
of deaths.

Speaker 1 (00:54):
Is that historically significant? Does that happen a lot?

Speaker 2 (00:57):
It has never happened before, so it is new.

Speaker 1 (01:01):
I mean apart from.

Speaker 2 (01:02):
Major events such as the Black Death in Europe. You
don't this is unheralded.

Speaker 1 (01:07):
Really wow? Do we worry about that? Or is that
just the way it is?

Speaker 2 (01:13):
It is the way it is because there's no reversing
the fertility decline as you and I have talked about before,
and of course the increasing deaths is a result of
an aging population. So what leavers do we have? And
immigration becomes the main lever in terms of population growth.

Speaker 1 (01:30):
So just on the macro level, there are certain countries
cultures who are having more children and there are countries
and cultures who are not. And so you do what
by way of immigration? You cherry pick the ones you
want and leave the ones you don't. And that's sort
of the role of wall everyone who wants more people,
I guess, isn't.

Speaker 2 (01:49):
It It is? Except most of Europe doesn't do a
point system. We do, so we can change our points
to indicate what sort of characteristics our migrants should have.
So if you've got a PhD, you get six points,
if you've got a master as you get five points.
So what we can do is is look at those
points and say, what do we want in terms of

(02:10):
a migrant, in terms of what they can contribute, and
use our point system to target them. That's unusual. Australia
and Canada are really the only other countries that do that.

Speaker 1 (02:20):
I would have thought it's the most obvious way of
doing it. The other part of that equation, though, is
the demand equation. So it's all very well to say
you get six points, have you've got this. They've got
to want to come here, don't they.

Speaker 2 (02:31):
Yes, they do. And whenever economic conditions are soft, as
they've been, then migrants won't move. I mean, it's a
big risk migrating to another country and you don't want
to do it when you know some of the key
indicators are not looking great. But it looks as though
we're coming out of that slump and the numbers are
picking up, So we're going to go back the population

(02:53):
only groups zero point three percent, but my calculation is
that it's looking more like one to one point two
percent over the next year, so we're getting back up there.

Speaker 1 (03:04):
Okay. In a point system, this brings in the election
and all the angst around it at the moment, how
do you handle the cultural side of it? So, yes,
you want to bring in a doctor, But where do
you want to bring that doctor in from?

Speaker 2 (03:17):
Well, what you want to do is you want to
do two things you want as the current current government
do and proposing, and that is say, well, you know
we need a certain standard of English, for example, so
we know that there are key factors that contribute to
good outcomes. So having a job and being successful in
that job is important, having a sense of well being,

(03:41):
able to speak colloquial English. You and I speak a
very unusual type of English, and some things we need
to learn. And then what we don't do is we
don't do much post arrival support for migration in New Zealand.
Canada is much better than us. Helping people adjust to
making sure that their settlement is successful is really important.

(04:07):
So the Canadians provide you with four hundred hours of
free English and French language instruction on arrival. We don't
do that, and we probably should do something like that.

Speaker 1 (04:17):
We ever will I no, no, because this is not news.
I mean that story is not I've heard this week
the eons.

Speaker 2 (04:25):
Yeah, no, no, no, it's not you. And the thing
is we attract very skilled, successful people by and large,
and so they make a pretty good fist of settling here.
So I'm you know, in one sense we could do better,
but in another sense we're probably doing okay. Anyway.

Speaker 1 (04:42):
Good stuff. Nice to dold you as always, Paul, Professor
Paul Spoinley, Messy University sociologist.

Speaker 2 (04:47):
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