Paul Spoonley: Massey University Sociologist on the evidence showing the number of Kiwis moving to Australia is falling

There’s more evidence the mass exodus to Australia appears to be turning a corner. 

Latest Stats NZ figures show net migration from New Zealand to Australia last year was down 8.4% compared to the year before. 

Newstalk ZB analysis of official Australian data has revealed a similar trend. 

Massey University sociologist Paul Spoonley told Mike Hosking there's a feeling the tide is turning, which can in turn prompt more people not to go. 

He says the perception, feeling, and media coverage all play into whether people choose to move to Australia. 

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Immigration stats encouraging by the way they stamped out the
door to Australia seems well and truly over new figures
NET lost twenty eight and a half thousand. That's down
on the forty five ish thousand that set records. Paul
Spoony as the University sociologists back with this morning Paul,
Good morning, Mike. In your expert opinion, how material is
the perception the perception now as things are turning for
New Zealand and Australia and some sort of tide is moving.

(00:22):
Is perception a big player on this when it comes
to immigration numbers.

Speaker 2 (00:26):
It is huge and it's always interesting because obviously economics
push and pull people across the Tasman so whenever we
get an economic downturn, we see that spike in people
going to Australia. But the perception is really the psychology
of migration, and the psychology of migration is do I

(00:48):
want to go? Do I want to take the chance?
Is it better over there? I'm hearing things are better,
sometimes worse, And so the perception, that feeling, the media
coverage all play into do I want to go?

Speaker 1 (01:03):
Is there a percentage of people historically who are the
sort who will go or not. In other words, you know,
I've never considered leaving the country and I never will.
You may well be the same. But there are people
in there. Is there just a sort of a makeup
of people who do that.

Speaker 2 (01:18):
Yes, And of course we get people coming here. And
migrants are people who are going to going to migrate
to another country, often for their children, so there's a
family thing that are going on there. So that's why
migrants come to New Zealand. Very often it's to get
a better life and to get better chances for their children.

(01:41):
But Mike, we've got a pattern that began in the
nineteen seventies of overseas experience. We have a ritual of
going overseas when you lose school or when you graduate.
That is never going to change. But what we need
to add on top of that as the people who
are feeling that the chances aren't here in New Zealand,

(02:01):
the chances are better in Australia. So we get this
traditional trickle of people leaving. Pre COVID we lost about
on average three thousand people more going to Australia than
coming from Australia. And of course, at the moment it's
much much higher than that, but it'll come back as
the economic conditions are changed, it will come back.

Speaker 1 (02:21):
And what's the relationship with Australian versus anywhere else in
the world. If I'm leaving Australia just simply because it's easy.

Speaker 2 (02:29):
Well, no. Back in nineteen seventy three, we beg we
established a pat with Australia and as part of that
pact that has it evolved, we gave Australian citizens' right
to live and work in New Zealand and vice versa.
So the normal rules of engagement and requirements of migration
between the two countries are different to everybody else. John

(02:50):
Howard changed that in two thousand and one when he
started calling us bludges. And it wasn't until I Do
and Albanezi a few years ago reversed some of those
conditions that Howard imposed upon New Zealanders traveling across the Tasman.
Australia is literally the only countries that are an unskilled,
uneducated New Zealander can go to and settle there and

(03:14):
work permanently. So we see very high skilled migrants going
to Australia, but we also see people who are less
skilled going as well to fill a range of roles
in a way where the sort of the Philippines of
the Australian economy we go and fill the jobs that
the Australians don't want.

Speaker 1 (03:33):
To do well. It's a bit of a reality checker, right,
said Paul Spoonley, sociologist. For more from The Mic Asking Breakfast,
listen live to news talks that'd be from six am weekdays,
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