Tony Alexander: Economist and Property Commentator chats survey showing 44% of real estate agents see prices falling in their areas

Independent Economist and Property Commentator Tony Alexander regularly surveys real estate agents. 

His latest survey found that 44% feel prices are falling in the area, 51% see fewer people that open homes, and 50% are seeing fewer investors.

Alexander contributes this to a number of reasons including global conflict and job instability, but first-home buyers are remaining strong. 

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Start read into our housing market, Tony Alexander, As you
know regularly polls agents later stat show forty four percent
fuel prices are falling in the area, fifty one percent
see fewer people at open homes, fifty percent of seeing
fewer investors. Tony Alexander's with us, body.

Speaker 2 (00:13):
Mate, Yeah, good morning, MIKEL.

Speaker 1 (00:15):
Is this all war related? We're in a funk and
no want to do anything.

Speaker 2 (00:18):
Mainly year it's war related. But when we look at
the monthly indicators that I gathered here, things were already
starting to turn around a bit before the invasion on
February twenty eight, as people started to get newly worried
about interest rates going up, in particular because the wholesale
rates bottomed out in October last year, they've been coming up,
and mortgage rates are already rising before February twenty eight.

Speaker 1 (00:40):
And we still have high stock levels, don't we.

Speaker 2 (00:43):
Year thirty four thousand or so properties listed for sale.
It's a heck of a change from twenty twenty one,
when for a while there were fewer than fourteen thousand.
So you know, people have a lot that they can
pick and choose from, and it is solidly a buyer's
market out there and has become war so recently.

Speaker 1 (00:58):
How much is it jobs related? Those numbers we got
last week the headline was bet at five point three
instead of five point four. But you look at a
place like Wellington or Auckland, they're well into the sixers.
Do jobs play a part in this?

Speaker 2 (01:10):
Oh? Definitely. If people don't have confidence about retaining their
job or getting a replacement that get laid off, then
they're going to hold back from making a property purchase.
And the survey there shows that about fifty one percent
of the agents believe that people are worried about their
jobs late last year. You know, in fact, earlier this
year that was only thirty three percent, so that has

(01:31):
also turned around and can have a big impact.

Speaker 1 (01:34):
And so you're forty four percent that feel the prices
are falling in their area. Is that an asking price
for a sale price because the two aren't always the
same thing, of course.

Speaker 2 (01:42):
Yeah, yeah, no, that'll just be for the sale price
that comes about. It's just a general question to the agents.
Reckon they going up? Ye? Reckon they're going down? And
they have so many say they reckon they going down?
Look like I say, it puts the power on the
part of the buyers and the vendors. If you want
to sell your property and move on with your life,
you've got to get real of it.

Speaker 1 (01:59):
Is there is there's still a bit of that in
the market. I see it myself. You know, people are going,
what do you reckon that's worth? And they go, well,
they're asking whatever, and you go, you know that's not
you know, people are just sort of about to lunch
a bit or is that unfair?

Speaker 2 (02:10):
Yeah? No, a lot of them are dreaming. There's a
good number of people paid top prices in twenty twenty one,
and I hope they're going to get back the price,
but on average we're down fifteen twenty percent from the
prices there. And if they're hanging out for that, they
could be waiting another three or four years quite quite frankly.
And my recommendation is, you know, if you can bite
the bullet and get on with other aspects of your life.

Speaker 1 (02:30):
What's your vibe if say this thing that the Iranians
have handed over as a deal, we've got to deal
the straight opens back. Inflation flushes through the way it
does in six months time, will we back to what
we were or not?

Speaker 2 (02:42):
It's going to take a while to get back to
where we were. Like I say, the interest rates we're
all redecoing up. The monetary policy cycle is now into
the tightening phase from maybe late this year through twenty
twenty seven, twenty twenty eight, so I think we would
revert back to the housing market improving. But even before
the Iranian event, you know, at best we were looking

(03:03):
at prices on average this year maybe gaining three or
four percent. It's still going to be a relatively mild
outlook because of good supply.

Speaker 1 (03:10):
First time buyers is still a good story though.

Speaker 2 (03:12):
Yeah, that's right. That's been the case since early twenty
twenty three. They jumped into the market with the prices
having fallen, not much competition out there, and feeling good
job security eventually and still a net twenty six percent
of agents saying by seeing more first home buyers. So
from a societal point of view, this is really positive.
Good supply, lots of young people able to make a purchase.

(03:34):
Maybe a few more of them will stick in the country.
We like it.

Speaker 1 (03:36):
Good on you, mate, Let's catch up Tony Alexander Independent Economists.

Speaker 2 (03:40):
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