Bureau of Meteorology Jess Lingard on wild wet season

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Now joining me live on the line from the Bureau

(00:02):
of Meteorology, it is Jesslin Guard. Good morning, Jess, Morning Katie. Jess.
I'll tell you what, there's been a hell of a
lot of rain. Talk us through what we've sort of
seen in the last twenty four hours.

Speaker 2 (00:14):
We certainly have, and it's mainly been sort of around
that the central Daily district up towards the sort of
outer reaches of the Darwin area. One hundred and sixty
seven millimeters of rainfall into the Adelaide Rivertown in the
two hours to four point thirty this morning, Nunamar picking
up one hundred and forty six point six millimeters, Bachelor

(00:36):
one hundred and twenty six millimeters, and around the rest
of this sort of Darwin area picking up widespread falls
of twenty to forty millimeters. We did issue a series
of severe thunderstorm warnings early yesterday afternoon because of some
very slow moving thunderstorms. Because they're slow moving, they drop
all their rainfall in one spot rather than sharing it

(00:57):
out nicely, and so unfortunately we did see some of
these really high rainfall figures falling around the region. Now
yesterday when I spoke to Sarah. We were discussing the
good news of the forecast that from now today, the
monsoon trough is easing, that monsoon surge is easing, so
rainfall totals are significantly lower forecast from yesterday to today.

(01:23):
Yesterday we were forecasting sort of well twenty to one
hundred and twenty millimeters across the Darwin region. Today that's
sort of down below sort of fifty to sixty millimeters,
So it should be a quiet day across the region.
That's not to rule out the risk of potentially some
slow moving storms, potentially some isolated areas of higher rainfall. Unfortunately,

(01:47):
I can't rule that out completely, but I can say
that the risk is significantly reduced and we're not expecting
quite as much rainfall into the gauges across the western
top end. We do still have a lot of flooding
around the region, especially around well now the Daily the
Daily River. I'm just going to bring it up. Where

(02:10):
are we? So the Daily River at the Daily River
Police station is currently above the major flood level. It's
been up there since about Saturday afternoon. This is a
very slow to respond river and very slow to recede river.
So we are likely to be above the major flood
level for potentially several days, if not up to a week,

(02:32):
and then we will slowly see that river, you know,
easing and receding in the coming week, So likely to
be a prolonged period of flooding along the daily Just
you know.

Speaker 1 (02:42):
What that is in meters? Is it above that fifteen
point three meters?

Speaker 2 (02:48):
At the moment the daily River at the Daily River
police station is currently at fourteen point nine meters, So
it's just shy of fifteen meters, right.

Speaker 1 (02:57):
And so you said then it like it Obviously it
takes a long time to go down. Are you expecting
it to go up much further in the next twenty
four hours or so?

Speaker 2 (03:08):
It is likely that we will see a few more
centimeters added to that river height. As I say, it's
a very slow to respond river. We have not reached
the peak of the river height yet. I'm not sure
when that peak will be achieved, but likely to be
over the coming days, especially with the increased rainfall that
we've just seen.

Speaker 1 (03:28):
Yes, yeah, goodness me so, just I know you said
the good news, is it really that monsoonal pulse is
going to ease off a bit from a bit later today,
I think you seed, you know, is that I mean,
is that going to sort of help you know, for
us up here in Darwin, Yes, we've had a heck
of a lot of rain, but we seem to be
tracking okay, aside from the issues that we're currently seeing

(03:50):
out of our dam. But for Catherine residents as well,
I mean, is are things starting to ease off for
them now?

Speaker 2 (03:58):
Certainly? I yes, so rainfall forecasts for around the Catherine
area are much lower than they have been in recent days,
potentially looking at still seeing maybe twenty to forty millimeters
added to the gauges today and potentially you know, showers
continuing all the way across this week. But as I said,
that risk of the really heavy triple digit falls is

(04:22):
much much lower now, you know, sort of sitting probably
below ten percent chance. But the more likely falls sort
of daily figures from now through to the end of
the weekend is likely to be you know, below twenty
to thirty millimeters a day.

Speaker 1 (04:37):
Well, I mean, Jesse, you probably don't have the numbers
with you, but have we brought like are we smashing
records with all these rain?

Speaker 2 (04:46):
I've been having a look at the river heights. Some
areas are sort of nudging up to sort of record heights.
But in terms of rainfall, let me just see if
I can quickly do a bit of live on air.

Speaker 1 (04:58):
You don't have a Google like while while we continue
to talk, because yes, all eyes have been on that weather,
and I know that anecdotally people are sort of saying
it feels like it's been a record breaking wet season.
But I guess we really kicked things off when Feena
struck and it just seems to have been a much
sort of wetter season than what we've maybe had in

(05:19):
previous years.

Speaker 2 (05:20):
It does feel like it, doesn't it. And I think,
as you say, starting off with Fena early in the season,
that certainly gave us quite a boost. If I go
to season to date rainfall, I do remember having a
look at the some of these rainfall figures earlier and
sort of commenting, yeah, actually we were nudging clothes so
Darwin Airport, we've had nearly two meters of rainfall, So

(05:44):
we are sitting above average in terms of where that
sits in in sort of seasons to date. Where are
we tell?

Speaker 1 (05:54):
All right, we can do it another day? Yes, I
know we'll have you gone again throughout the week.

Speaker 2 (06:02):
Yes, yeah, Look, let me do some homework when I'm
not so frazzled. I'll have that prepared for you when
we challenge.

Speaker 1 (06:11):
I know, we definitely had a fairly wet year back
in twenty eleven. I think it was as well. I
think we had cyclone Carlos. There's been a few of
them over the years. Trying to remember the different cyclones
and what they bought with them.

Speaker 2 (06:24):
Yeah, I've managed to find the right graph now, so
the highest year to date, you know, as of you know,
nine am this morning, we have to go back to
twenty ten, and at this stage in twenty ten we'd
had two and a half meters of rainfall, as I said,
at the moment, we're in about nineteen hundred, so just
below two meters, all right, Well, where are there?

Speaker 1 (06:47):
Very wet, very wet, indeed, And just so the good
news is said, it is looking at this stage, based
on the forecast and the modeling that you've got, that
things are going to start to ease off a bit.

Speaker 2 (07:00):
Yeah, that's right. So rainfall is still going to be falling.
We've still got some fairly persistent showers, especially over western
parts of the top end, but the risk of those
super heavy falls has reduced, and the forecast for at
least the next week or so is for daily rainfall
to continue, but at a lower level.

Speaker 1 (07:18):
Yeah, oh well, Jessling Guard. We always appreciate you joining
us on the show and keeping us up up to
date with what's going on with the weather. No doubt
we'll talk to you again throughout the.

Speaker 2 (07:28):
Week, I'm sure.

Speaker 1 (07:30):
Thanks Kank, you thanks so much.