Matthew Schmidt: New Haven University National Security Expert on the ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran - The Mike Hosking Breakfast

A US national security expert believes Iran is gaining leverage out of the ceasefire, showing it can open and close the Strait of Hormuz at will. 

“The real question here is: what is Iran holding back?”, New Haven University's Dr Matthew Schmidt told Mike Hosking. 

“Can they restart their threats over the Strait of Hormuz six weeks from now, two weeks from now, right, six months from now?” 

Gulf states were “desperate” for the strait to open and to have Iranian drones and missiles under control.

"They're being fired directly at their oil and gas facilities, which are going to cost hundreds of billions of dollars - if they are taken offline - to restart.” 

The key question was what would happen in two weeks’ time - whether Iran would “flex their muscles” and threaten to close the strait, or control which ships could travel through. 

Schmidt believed the Iranian regime was weakened and would not last long-term, but it could still be in control for a decade or more. 

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