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Dr Ashley Bloomfield: Director-general of Health as experts back 'cautious' move to stay at red - The Mike Hosking Breakfast
The Mike Hosking Breakfast
Experts back the "cautious" call to stay in the red Covid setting at least until Easter as, while cases are declining, Auckland still leads the country in hospitalisations per capita.
Meanwhile, hospitality representatives say they are "gutted" and question why there has been no movement given low transmission rates at venues.
But with the health system near bursting point, experts warn everything possible needs to be done to avoid another "wave" of Omicron, as seen in other countries, with winter arriving and the border reopening likely to reintroduce a range of infectious diseases.
From today controversial vaccine passes will no longer be required, and Government-enforced vaccine mandates will be limited to the health and disability, aged-care, Corrections and border workforce sectors.
Ahead of Monday's traffic light decision had been hints of a further loosening of restrictions in a move to orange and removing indoor gathering limits, and at least for Auckland where cases were well past the peak.
The reasoning had been a steady decline in daily Omicron cases - down 36 per cent from two weeks ago - hospitalisations beginning to slow and high vaccination coverage coupled with natural immunity gained from infection.
But while case numbers in Auckland had slowed each of its three DHBs remained with the three highest hospitalisation rates per capita in the country, with Counties Manukau at the top with 134 patients.
Auckland made up close to half of the 734 current hospitalisations - a large drop from about 600 a few weeks ago, but still at the high end of pre-outbreak models.
"The trends are all in the right direction but with the hospitals still under pressure it makes sense to be cautious," Covid-19 modeller Michael Plank said.
"A move to orange might not cause a second wave in itself, but it could increase it a little or prolong that decline."
It comes as doctors and nurses have been raising concerns in recent weeks about the pressures on the stretched health system, with the added issue of staff contracting the virus themselves.
Plank said greater caution was also needed with the border reopening to more Kiwis from overseas, along with international visitors progressively from April 12, with potential for other infectious diseases.
A major tool remained the vaccine, he said, with still about a million eligible people yet to get their booster shot, which was highly effective at reducing severe illness from Omicron and pressure on the health system.
Public health expert Dr Collin Tukuitonga said that given international evidence of multiple waves of Omicron it made sense to stay at red a little longer.
"It is about how we can protect best the health system. Those hospital numbers are not as acute but even so, that is still a lot.
"The system is under stress, and hospitalisations are just one indicator. There are many cases treated by GPs, nurses in the community and through Māori and Pasifika providers."
Tukuitonga said the border reopening would likely see the reintroduction of "bugs from the past", such as influenza, adding extra pressure.
"The big problem would be if we got another wave coinciding with flu in the winter."
Meanwhile, many hospitality sector representatives have expressed disappointment at the ongoing gathering limits.
Hospitality NZ chief executive Julie White said she was at a loss as to how that decision had been made, given the Government had already admitted that hospitality venues were not considered vectors of the virus.
"The Prime Minister said two weeks ago that they now have the data that shows our venues aren't the vectors that are spreading it. It's down to around 6 per cent [of all transmission].
"We're at a loss as to why we're not moving."
Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said Auckland's hospitalisations remained above highest modelled scenarios. Photo / Mark Mitchell
The...
Meanwhile, hospitality representatives say they are "gutted" and question why there has been no movement given low transmission rates at venues.
But with the health system near bursting point, experts warn everything possible needs to be done to avoid another "wave" of Omicron, as seen in other countries, with winter arriving and the border reopening likely to reintroduce a range of infectious diseases.
From today controversial vaccine passes will no longer be required, and Government-enforced vaccine mandates will be limited to the health and disability, aged-care, Corrections and border workforce sectors.
Ahead of Monday's traffic light decision had been hints of a further loosening of restrictions in a move to orange and removing indoor gathering limits, and at least for Auckland where cases were well past the peak.
The reasoning had been a steady decline in daily Omicron cases - down 36 per cent from two weeks ago - hospitalisations beginning to slow and high vaccination coverage coupled with natural immunity gained from infection.
But while case numbers in Auckland had slowed each of its three DHBs remained with the three highest hospitalisation rates per capita in the country, with Counties Manukau at the top with 134 patients.
Auckland made up close to half of the 734 current hospitalisations - a large drop from about 600 a few weeks ago, but still at the high end of pre-outbreak models.
"The trends are all in the right direction but with the hospitals still under pressure it makes sense to be cautious," Covid-19 modeller Michael Plank said.
"A move to orange might not cause a second wave in itself, but it could increase it a little or prolong that decline."
It comes as doctors and nurses have been raising concerns in recent weeks about the pressures on the stretched health system, with the added issue of staff contracting the virus themselves.
Plank said greater caution was also needed with the border reopening to more Kiwis from overseas, along with international visitors progressively from April 12, with potential for other infectious diseases.
A major tool remained the vaccine, he said, with still about a million eligible people yet to get their booster shot, which was highly effective at reducing severe illness from Omicron and pressure on the health system.
Public health expert Dr Collin Tukuitonga said that given international evidence of multiple waves of Omicron it made sense to stay at red a little longer.
"It is about how we can protect best the health system. Those hospital numbers are not as acute but even so, that is still a lot.
"The system is under stress, and hospitalisations are just one indicator. There are many cases treated by GPs, nurses in the community and through Māori and Pasifika providers."
Tukuitonga said the border reopening would likely see the reintroduction of "bugs from the past", such as influenza, adding extra pressure.
"The big problem would be if we got another wave coinciding with flu in the winter."
Meanwhile, many hospitality sector representatives have expressed disappointment at the ongoing gathering limits.
Hospitality NZ chief executive Julie White said she was at a loss as to how that decision had been made, given the Government had already admitted that hospitality venues were not considered vectors of the virus.
"The Prime Minister said two weeks ago that they now have the data that shows our venues aren't the vectors that are spreading it. It's down to around 6 per cent [of all transmission].
"We're at a loss as to why we're not moving."
Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said Auckland's hospitalisations remained above highest modelled scenarios. Photo / Mark Mitchell
The...
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