Perspective with Heather du Plessis-Allan: The talk of rolling Luxon is very real - Heather du Plessis-Allan Drive

Either Justice Minister Paul Goldsmith is telling porkies, or he’s the most out-of-the-loop person in Wellington. His claim that there’s “no talk” of rolling Chris Luxon is complete nonsense. There is talk—serious talk.

I can tell you for a fact that senior National Party ministers believe Luxon can’t continue in the job. MPs are actively discussing whether to pull the pin and replace him. If they do, the most likely successor is Chris Bishop. But—and this is crucial—they haven’t decided to do it yet.

Why? Because it’s risky. Rolling a sitting Prime Minister has only happened once before, with Jim Bolger, and that didn’t end well. MPs know that sticking with Luxon might pay off if the economy improves next year. Better economic conditions could lift National’s polling and save seats currently at risk.

But there’s a flip side: if the polls don’t recover, Luxon’s unpopularity could drag National down further. Like it or not