John MacDonald: Here's why Luxon and Hipkins are neck-and-neck - Canterbury Mornings with John MacDonald

If I asked you who you would rather go and have a beer with, Christopher Luxon or Chris Hipkins, who would you choose?  

I’d choose Luxon any day. One slight technicality is that he doesn’t drink. But he’d have a lime and soda or whatever he likes to drink, I’d have a beer and we’d probably have a very nice time.  

Reason being that on the occasions that I’ve met him in person, he comes across as a very good guy and good fun to be around. I’ve met Hipkins several times too, but I think he’d be a bit more earnest or serious than Luxon.  

So why isn’t that coming through in the poll results? Why aren’t there more people wanting to go and have a beer with Luxon?  

Why are there almost as many people who would choose have a drink with Chippy?  Which I know isn’t the official question polling companies ask voters, but you get what I mean. 

According to last night’s 1News-Verian poll, Christopher Luxon’s popularity as Prime Minister is the lowest it’s been in two years.  

Last night’s preferred prime minister result had him on 20%, and Labour’s Chris Hipkins breathing down his neck on 19% – which has all the headline writers predicting his demise.   

Here’s an example of one: “Luxon’s leadership running out of oxygen as polls tighten”.  

You may think these poll results are a load of nonsense, but I don’t. Because it wasn’t just the 1News poll that came out in the last 24 hours.   

We also had a Taxpayers Union poll out yesterday which showed a very similar result in preferred Prime Minister. That poll had Christopher Luxon on 20.2% and Chris Hipkins on 20.2%.  

So do I believe these poll results? Yes I do.   

And why do I think Christopher Luxon is so unpopular with voters? I’m taking my cue from National Party voters I’ve spoken to recently who are shaking their heads. 

The common themes that come through are that Luxon is letting Winston Peters and David Seymour run rings around him, that his government —especially his Finance Minister— isn’t delivering anything meaningful, and that he’s still blaming everything on the previous government. 

Not that the last government achieved much, but surely people expected the bar to be a bit higher with this government. So that’s why he is polling so low – people see him as a let down.  

He’s seen as weak, letting Seymour and Peters rule the roost and he doesn’t own the problems he’s trying to fix. He’s still pointing the finger at Labour more than halfway through his government’s three-year term. That’s letting him down big time.  

And people don’t think his government delivering them anything —especially on the economic front— and that he should be giving Nicola Willis the flick and giving someone else the finance job.   

Because these National voters I’ve spoken to are saying that she has been a big disappointment.  

But when you’re the leader of the party and when you’re the Prime Minister, you’re the one who cops it. And Christopher Luxon is copping it. And he deserves to cop it.  

And if we did go and have that drink – that’s what I’d be telling him.  

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