October 30, 2025 • 7 mins
A Yale study says Musk’s partisan turn cost Tesla 1.0–1.26M U.S. sales. I break down the math, the market whiplash, and who scooped up those buyers.
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Episode Transcript
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(00:03):
Your ultimate authority for daily Elon Musk news.
Exploring the world's biggest ideas with your host Will
Walden. There's something new every day.
Thanks to our amazing community members like you, we've reached
the top 15 of. Spotify.
'S video podcast. The top 10 audio podcasts on
both. Apple and Spotify for the tech.
(00:25):
Category. So you.
All make this possible if you want to support us more.
Check out our Patreon. That's patreon.com slash.
Stage. 0 news so we can. Keep this free and.
Open for you to enjoy. Something interesting happened
the other day. I was looking through our stats
on Spotify and Apple Podcasts and I.
(00:45):
Noticed. That about. 55.
Percent of you are not subscribed to the show, that
means 45% of you are subscribed.And I really do appreciate your
support. For the.
Other 55% of you are awesome, but I'm going.
To ask you for a favor, could you please hit?
The subscribe button it'll take you one second, but I.
Promise you. 10 years of this podcast.
(01:07):
For free. No pay.
Walls. I'm not going to charge you
anything ever, but I'm going to give you 10 years of this show
for free. I've already been doing it for
five years and I plan on doing it for 10 more.
And the only way that we can continue doing this.
Is with your support so one. Second of your time to hit the
subscribe button right now. Would help.
The show tremendously. Thank you so much.
(01:32):
Yale economists estimate Elon Musk's political activities cost
Tesla between 1,000,000 and 1.26million U.S. sales from October
2022 through April of 2025. Now the timing lines up with his
acquisition of Twitter, which isnow X of course, and his move
(01:52):
into national politics. The data shows a sales hole that
would not exist without the Muskpartisan effect, which is how
the researchers describe the pole of politics on purchasing.
Now, how does the CE OS personalbrand reshape the demand curve
for Tesla vehicles? We're going to look into that
today. The question sits on clear
(02:16):
facts, though. The working paper comes through
the National Bureau of Economic Research and uses county level
registrations to isolate the effect.
The authors attribute the gap toMusk's public alignment with
Republican politics in his high dollar donations, which shifted
a customer base that skewed Democratic.
(02:37):
Now the basic of this paper thatquantifies the gap directly.
The Tesla's US unit sales would have come in 67 to 83% higher
over that 31 month window without that part to set effect.
The approach tracks monthly registrations and compares
(02:58):
places where Democrats or Republicans dominate, which
cleanly separates politics from other market drivers.
Now the researchers find a matching boost for competitors.
Electric and hybrid sales at rival brands rose thoroughly, 17
to 22%, as Democratic leaning buyers moved away from Tesla,
(03:20):
and the shift shows how brand perception migrates to the
nearest substitute when values enter the purchase decision.
The effect shows up vividly in California.
Registrations fell 9.4% in the first quarter, while Tesla's
share slid to 46.2%, and the paper argues that the state
likely would have hit its 20260 emissions sales targets absent
(03:44):
the partisan effect. California's role this Tesla's
largest U.S. market turns that drop into a core business
problem. Now, operational data from
earlier this year points in the same direction.
Tesla's global deliveries dropped 13% in the first quarter
of 2025 as aging models, rising competition and brand pushback
weighed on demand. And those numbers set the stage
(04:06):
for the Yale analysis by showingpressure before the model lineup
meaningfully changed. In the paper links part of the
demand shift to Musk's high profile government role.
His time leading the Department of Government efficiency during
President Trump's term amplifiedpartisan cues that many Tesla
buyers disliked. That alignment create a
(04:27):
political filter on an otherwisetech forward car purchase.
Researchers also track how sentiment drift interacts with
product strategy. They note a mild improvement
when Tesla talked more about robo taxis and humanoid robots.
But the perception lift did not close the sales gap.
The narrative change moved opinions at the margin, while
(04:49):
price cuts did most of the near term work.
Now the ownership story connectsto the government story.
Tesla's chair warned that Musk could exit if investors reject
his pay package. That headlines at a trillion
dollar figure, which adds leadership risk on top of demand
risk. And that warning puts boardroom
dynamics on the same stage as sales math.
(05:11):
Competitors fill the opening with speed and focus.
Buyers who left Tesla favored hybrids and EVs from Ford,
Hyundai, Kia, GM and Rivian, which offered fresh models and
less political baggage. And those flows match the
study's estimate of gains for rivals.
And they show how preference canflip when customers feel value
alignment elsewhere. You know the public narrative
(05:33):
matters because it now shapes purchase intent at the county
level. The study's method captures how
partisanship predicts EV choice after controlling for other
variables, which is rare in automotive research at this
scale, and the results gives executives and investors A
quantifiable measure of how public politics map to private
(05:54):
buying. Tesla now faces a marketing
problem tied to a leadership decision and problem.
The brand must either neutralizethe political signal or Elon or
out innovate the perception tax that the paper measures.
This is getting in the hands of every single investor in Tesla
(06:16):
over the next few days. And when the vote comes up for
Elon's trillion dollar pay package, this is going to weigh
on all of them. And the company's next sales
reports will show whether strategy or sentiment moves
first. Now this data links Musk's
political profile to a measurable million unit sales
(06:37):
gap for Tesla in the US market. And if anybody that invests in
Tesla doesn't see that now, theywill.
Hey, thank you so much for listening today.
I really do appreciate your support.
If you could take a second and hit this subscribe or the follow
button on whatever podcast platform that you're listening
on, right? Now I.
(06:57):
Greatly appreciate it, it helps out the show tremendously and
you'll. Never miss.
An episode, and each episode is about 10 minutes or less to get
you caught up. Quickly.
And please, if you want to support the show even more, go
to patreon.com slash. Stage 0.
And please take care of yourselves and each other, and
I'll see you tomorrow.
Your ultimate authority for daily Elon Musk news.
Exploring the world's biggest ideas with your host Will
Walden. There's something new every day.
Thanks to our amazing community members like you, we've reached
the top 15 of. Spotify.
'S video podcast. The top 10 audio podcasts on
both. Apple and Spotify for the tech.
(00:25):
Category. So you.
All make this possible if you want to support us more.
Check out our Patreon. That's patreon.com slash.
Stage. 0 news so we can. Keep this free and.
Open for you to enjoy. Something interesting happened
the other day. I was looking through our stats
on Spotify and Apple Podcasts and I.
(00:45):
Noticed. That about. 55.
Percent of you are not subscribed to the show, that
means 45% of you are subscribed.And I really do appreciate your
support. For the.
Other 55% of you are awesome, but I'm going.
To ask you for a favor, could you please hit?
The subscribe button it'll take you one second, but I.
Promise you. 10 years of this podcast.
(01:07):
For free. No pay.
Walls. I'm not going to charge you
anything ever, but I'm going to give you 10 years of this show
for free. I've already been doing it for
five years and I plan on doing it for 10 more.
And the only way that we can continue doing this.
Is with your support so one. Second of your time to hit the
subscribe button right now. Would help.
The show tremendously. Thank you so much.
(01:32):
Yale economists estimate Elon Musk's political activities cost
Tesla between 1,000,000 and 1.26million U.S. sales from October
2022 through April of 2025. Now the timing lines up with his
acquisition of Twitter, which isnow X of course, and his move
(01:52):
into national politics. The data shows a sales hole that
would not exist without the Muskpartisan effect, which is how
the researchers describe the pole of politics on purchasing.
Now, how does the CE OS personalbrand reshape the demand curve
for Tesla vehicles? We're going to look into that
today. The question sits on clear
(02:16):
facts, though. The working paper comes through
the National Bureau of Economic Research and uses county level
registrations to isolate the effect.
The authors attribute the gap toMusk's public alignment with
Republican politics in his high dollar donations, which shifted
a customer base that skewed Democratic.
(02:37):
Now the basic of this paper thatquantifies the gap directly.
The Tesla's US unit sales would have come in 67 to 83% higher
over that 31 month window without that part to set effect.
The approach tracks monthly registrations and compares
(02:58):
places where Democrats or Republicans dominate, which
cleanly separates politics from other market drivers.
Now the researchers find a matching boost for competitors.
Electric and hybrid sales at rival brands rose thoroughly, 17
to 22%, as Democratic leaning buyers moved away from Tesla,
(03:20):
and the shift shows how brand perception migrates to the
nearest substitute when values enter the purchase decision.
The effect shows up vividly in California.
Registrations fell 9.4% in the first quarter, while Tesla's
share slid to 46.2%, and the paper argues that the state
likely would have hit its 20260 emissions sales targets absent
(03:44):
the partisan effect. California's role this Tesla's
largest U.S. market turns that drop into a core business
problem. Now, operational data from
earlier this year points in the same direction.
Tesla's global deliveries dropped 13% in the first quarter
of 2025 as aging models, rising competition and brand pushback
weighed on demand. And those numbers set the stage
(04:06):
for the Yale analysis by showingpressure before the model lineup
meaningfully changed. In the paper links part of the
demand shift to Musk's high profile government role.
His time leading the Department of Government efficiency during
President Trump's term amplifiedpartisan cues that many Tesla
buyers disliked. That alignment create a
(04:27):
political filter on an otherwisetech forward car purchase.
Researchers also track how sentiment drift interacts with
product strategy. They note a mild improvement
when Tesla talked more about robo taxis and humanoid robots.
But the perception lift did not close the sales gap.
The narrative change moved opinions at the margin, while
(04:49):
price cuts did most of the near term work.
Now the ownership story connectsto the government story.
Tesla's chair warned that Musk could exit if investors reject
his pay package. That headlines at a trillion
dollar figure, which adds leadership risk on top of demand
risk. And that warning puts boardroom
dynamics on the same stage as sales math.
(05:11):
Competitors fill the opening with speed and focus.
Buyers who left Tesla favored hybrids and EVs from Ford,
Hyundai, Kia, GM and Rivian, which offered fresh models and
less political baggage. And those flows match the
study's estimate of gains for rivals.
And they show how preference canflip when customers feel value
alignment elsewhere. You know the public narrative
(05:33):
matters because it now shapes purchase intent at the county
level. The study's method captures how
partisanship predicts EV choice after controlling for other
variables, which is rare in automotive research at this
scale, and the results gives executives and investors A
quantifiable measure of how public politics map to private
(05:54):
buying. Tesla now faces a marketing
problem tied to a leadership decision and problem.
The brand must either neutralizethe political signal or Elon or
out innovate the perception tax that the paper measures.
This is getting in the hands of every single investor in Tesla
(06:16):
over the next few days. And when the vote comes up for
Elon's trillion dollar pay package, this is going to weigh
on all of them. And the company's next sales
reports will show whether strategy or sentiment moves
first. Now this data links Musk's
political profile to a measurable million unit sales
(06:37):
gap for Tesla in the US market. And if anybody that invests in
Tesla doesn't see that now, theywill.
Hey, thank you so much for listening today.
I really do appreciate your support.
If you could take a second and hit this subscribe or the follow
button on whatever podcast platform that you're listening
on, right? Now I.
(06:57):
Greatly appreciate it, it helps out the show tremendously and
you'll. Never miss.
An episode, and each episode is about 10 minutes or less to get
you caught up. Quickly.
And please, if you want to support the show even more, go
to patreon.com slash. Stage 0.
And please take care of yourselves and each other, and
I'll see you tomorrow.
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