October 23, 2025 • 20 mins
The following players are discussed:
1. Braden Montgomery (OF)
2. Noah Schultz (LHP)
3. Billy Carlson (SS)
4. Tanner McDougal (RHP)
5. Hagen Smith (LHP)
6. Caleb Bonemer (3B)
7. Jeral Perez (2B)
8. Jaden Fauske (OF)
9. Jairio Iriarte (RHP)
10. Jacob Gonzalez (SS)
1. Braden Montgomery (OF)
2. Noah Schultz (LHP)
3. Billy Carlson (SS)
4. Tanner McDougal (RHP)
5. Hagen Smith (LHP)
6. Caleb Bonemer (3B)
7. Jeral Perez (2B)
8. Jaden Fauske (OF)
9. Jairio Iriarte (RHP)
10. Jacob Gonzalez (SS)
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Good afternoon everyone. It is October twenty third, about twelve
forty five in the afternoon. I have been a wall
for the last few days, moving back to North Carolina
from our New Jersey home. A couple of days to
drive down, a couple days to get everything unpacked and
the dust out and so forth. So I am back
(00:22):
doing baseball. Today is our Hot Prospects of the week
and we are talking to Chicago White Sox, which got produced,
got sent out. I got produced several weeks ago, but
was actually for consumption to our Patreon members and to
the general public. The top ten on Tuesday, it would
have been the twenty first. And if I'm being honest
(00:46):
with the system, and I'm being honest with the White
Sox organization, I just don't like it. I mean, they've
had every opportunity to build a really good farm system,
but Noah Schultz was their big guy, and boy, he
has just really struggled to throw strikes and he's got
(01:07):
some serious platoon splits, which we'll get into. Hagen Smith
was their big at Big Pick in twenty twenty four,
and he's walking nearly six per nine and even in
the Arizon fall leag he's got good stuff, good fastball, slider.
In fact, he's struck out sixteen and nine innings in
the Fall League but walked five. So, by the way,
(01:29):
just in the Fall League. I say this every time,
and yet I'm seeing Patreon comments, I'm seeing baseball three
sixty five Justin's Facebook pages. It comes up on my
Facebook feed. Everybody all in on Esmralyn Valdez. I get
that he is at a six seven home runs already.
(01:51):
He's just every time he gets up the ball's getting
hit very hard. So it's a good player, a guy
that did exactly the same thing he's doing in the
Fall when he was with in High A and he
got promoted to Double A where he saw better pitching,
better spend and he couldn't hit anything so and really
really struggled. So just be careful. The Arizona Fall League
(02:14):
is a hitters league, extraordinary. There's the pitching there is
not very good. Yeah, you get the Hagen Smith who
have really good stuff, and every once in a while,
every third day go run into a good picture. That
pitch is three three innings, which is what Smith did.
But most guys, they're going up against our twenty six
year old kids pitchers that teams are deciding whether they
(02:40):
should hang on to them or DFA them, or you know,
should they put him out to the if they dfa
and then they put on the Rule five draft which
comes up later this year. So that that's who these
pitchers are. I mean, there's a ton of them out there,
but they're not very many elite pictures. So I just
(03:01):
want to make sure everybody needs to check their kind
of aggressiveness and ceiling of young Valdez. It's a good,
good player, but this is not the next Willie Mays
or Hank Aaron or you know, some big power hitting
(03:22):
player coming up. But anyway, back to the White Sox,
so if we take a look at their it's scary
over here to roster resource and see what's going on.
To take a look at their major league team, just
so I know what I'm talking about. They're the White
Sox down here. So I mean, Colesa Montgomery hit a
(03:48):
ton of home runs. He also struck out thirty percent
of the time or twenty nine percent of the time,
and good defender. You know, there's plenty of guys coming
up here are better to at shortstop. I just think
he's a low batting average guy that's going to hit
home runs. There's very little speed, So there's that. Kyle
Teal has been disappointing. Let's face it came over at
(04:10):
Brady Montgomery, their number one prospect, came over with him
to the Red Sox and that Crochet deal. Lendyon Sosa
is an okay player. Edward Quaro I like a lot.
That's an interesting you know, used to be catcher. Now
he looks like he said DH because Kyle Thiel's at catching.
Chase Meredith me droth excuse me? Andrew Bin attendee, Michael Vargas,
(04:35):
Corey Lee, Curtis Meat. I always like Curtis Meet. He's
just not been able to hit. Major league pitching. That's
a bad lineup. Still, it's just a bad lineup. There's
no other way to say it. Starting pitcher Shane Smith
had a really good season. Grant Taylor you like as
the closer, but he's going to move into a, you know,
(04:58):
a starting pitcher role. In fact, Brush Resource has him
as an SP four. I like that guy as a starter.
We saw the stuff that he has in short bursts.
It's not going to play as well as a starter.
John Burk's been okay, but it's up, that's up below
average rotation, and then I think the Schultz and Hagen
(05:20):
Smith were going to come up and it basically be
your one and number two, And that just doesn't look
like this happens to The White Socks are a long
way away. So I'm a little discouraged about the White
Sox are doing. So let's get into it. Let's see
the player profiles, and then we'll go back and talk
maybe about the AI where AI sees all this first
(05:40):
pick players that Brady Montgomery started off in low way
made it all the way up to Double A. He
was the Red Sox first round pick in twenty twenty four.
Guy I really loved at the draft. I added him
to a bunch of teams. It was okay last season,
struggled when he saw better pitching twenty nine percent strikeout
(06:05):
rate in twenty two games in Double A. So I mean,
so there's there is some challenges with his contact, but
there's definitely some power, particularly power and good speed. Though
there's you know, he did hurt his knee in college,
and you know, I don't think that he's ever going
to be a high stolen base guy. But you know,
I think if he can make enough contact, which at
(06:27):
this juncture i'm pretty bullish on there's twenty five plus
arm run power there and you have a high single digit,
low double digit stolen base, I still think he's going
to be a very good player. It might come with
a two forty two fifty batting average, but he does
walk a lot, so you could see a two three
twenty three thirty on base percentage, which should be good
enough for the whole thing to play. I think he
(06:50):
comes up next season and I think he's going to
be one of the better players on the team. I
think he is a better version of Colson Montgomery, guy
that's going to be able to to hit more Colt
Montgomery's got. Oddly both have the same last name, Colst
Montgomery's got huge raw power, which you know, I knew
(07:10):
kind of as he was coming through the minor leagues.
He was hurt all the time too, a ton of
leverage in the swing. We have to see what the
data says on Brad Montgomery in terms of how much
leverage is on his swing. Noah Schultz, left handed pitcher. Again,
they still have him as a fairly high top prospect
ranked fairly high, and it's good stuff. Fastball is up
to ninety seven sits more ninety four ninety five. But
(07:37):
here's the problem. It gets right hand at batters. They
posted a three to twenty average of four to sixty
three slug against them. I mean those are ugly splits
and made it did it in double A and the
same thing with showing in triple A. So it's a
big time slider, good fastball, not a premium fastball, though
(07:59):
at a lefty three growing averaging ninety four miles an
hour should be good enough. He needs to find the
change up. If he doesn't find a change up, the
glove side batters are going to kill him, which they're
doing right now. So I put as a fantasy, is
the only wide variants top of the rotation to a
bullpen or I mean, if he cannot get glove side
batters out right handed hitters in this particular standpoint, I mean,
(08:23):
it's going to be problematic. Now. Can he turn it
around and come to camp this season with a splitter,
go to drive line and they help him figure that out,
or come in with a change up. Absolutely, let's hope
he does that. He could also move to a to
a two seemer and get that two seamer running out
basically running away from glove side batters. And you see
(08:46):
that a lot with pictures doing that. But he's got
to find something otherwise it's going to be tough going. So, plus,
the control is not there, and a part of that
is is because he's really tall. So I think as
he he aiins more experienced that five point eight walks
per nine will come down. But I'm not sure it's
ever going to be elite control. So I know, in fact,
(09:11):
I probably fell into this as well because you take
a look at his size and the fact that he's
got that seventy eighty grade slider, and he says top
of the rotation guy. But as we got data on
him and we started to see him going up against
better hitters, I mean the warts started to show, if
you will. So that's Noah Schultz as you can tell
them a little down on him. Billy Carlson shortstop, He
(09:34):
was the number tenth overall pick this past season. He
is might be a seventy grade defender, maybe eighty grade
at shortstop. So this is a really this is a
great defensive player that will probably spend ten to fifteen
(09:54):
years in major League baseball. The question is he going
to be a full time regular. And it's a great
hit tool, so he could be. But from a fantasy standpoint,
the tools are a little light. He's got average power,
he's got average two above average speeds. I mean, there
could be fifteen to twenty stolen bases early in his career,
(10:18):
but I think as he gets into his mid to
late twenties, I think you'll see that pull back to
you know, five to eight stolen bases and twelve to
fifteen type of home runs, who plays elite defense, hits
at the top of the lineup because of his ability
to make contact. And I think as you're at the
draft table next first year player draft that you need
(10:40):
to have that player profile on mine as you are
thinking through where you draft this guy, I think he's
going to be lower for me than number ten. I
just don't think the high end tools are there to
make him really really interesting. But I mean it's definitely
a safe guy, almost a little bit like Jacob Gonzales
who they draft a few years ago. And so that's uh,
(11:04):
I think that's that's what we can expect with Billy
Carlson two three, number four is Tanner McDougall. Great fast
but probably the best stuff in the system. And you know,
No Schultz has got great stuff as well as does
Hagen Smith. And McDougall's got the fastball, a little touch,
one hundred, big time curveball. Slider change up also shows
(11:29):
a lot of promise. The promise is control. Five point
seven walks per nine in twenty four and then he
brought it down a little bit. But the good news
is when he hit double a something clicked and then
he was only walking three per nine or actually two
point eight per nine and fifteen starts. Now that all works.
(11:51):
I mean you're talking you're talking a front front of
the rotation guy at least the top forty starting pitcher,
maybe even more than that. I mean, there's a whole
to like. He He's got size at six foot five,
big time stuff. All he he's looking for his control.
So this could be somebody who becomes very, very interesting.
I have his et at twenty twenty seven. If he
(12:13):
comes into camp still throwing strikes, you could see him
next season. And everybody's talking about Hagen Smith. Everybody saw
about No Schultz. Don't let Tanner McDougall kind of run
away from you and Greg going to somebody else's team.
Hagan Smith comes in at number five, obviously lefting a
pitcher I've already talked about. He has good stuff. Again,
(12:34):
it's a good fastball slider. When I took a look
at the Baseball Savant game that he threw, let's see
what game am I looking at? October sixteenth, the Glendale
Desert Dogs. He threw sixty pitches one change up, so
(12:55):
he was primarily a fastball slider that evening. So he
his change up. He doesn't throw that often. He hasn't
really needed it, but the problem is controlled. But fastballs
not average ninety four point five up to ninety six.
Slider's just a really good pitch thirty six percent with
rate on it. Maximum velocity is up to eighty five,
(13:16):
so it's good separation between his fastball and his slider,
and the change up is actually thrown in between those,
and that looks like it's about an eight mile hour
different So you typically want to see a fastball and
slider differential of seven miles per hour and then a
change up more like ten miles an hour, So you'd
(13:38):
like to see a greater velo separation on the change up,
but he just doesn't have that, which is part of
the reason that you know he might struggle and it
hasn't shown up yet against gloveside batters in this case,
right hand at batters. But it's all about the walks.
And again he walked six point seven per nine, and
then you know, there was talk of he hit the eel,
(14:03):
and there was always talk of did he hit the
eye out because of an injury or did he hit
the eel because the White Sox basically wanted to excuse me,
rejig his delivery, try to get him close more in
line with the plate, and I never heard resolution on that.
I wouldn't be surprised if it was just to help
(14:23):
him learn to throw better strikes. Coming. Number six is
Caleb Bonamer. Caleb Bonamer saw him early in the season.
Huge raw power, a little bit of speed, current speed.
I think that will dwindle as it goes down, but
it's an interesting guy. I think he's going to, you know,
strike out a lot, but he could he could hit
(14:45):
twenty maybe twenty five home runs. Probably. He's going to
be a third base that's been playing a bit of
shortstop this past season, but I think eventually he's just
going to become a third baseman. So people need to
you know, it's a guy if he's tooling around on
your waiver wires, the guy that you might want to
think about acquiring because I think there is something there.
(15:07):
I don't have them on any team. It's a little slow.
I just liked the other players better. But he's probably
in that one seventy five to two hundred range. I'm
going from memory. I don't have that up at all,
but that's where I think you So that's player number six.
Player number seven is Jirell Perez, who has made a
(15:29):
pretty remarkable improvement from what he showed last season. He's
at the beginning of last season. He was really good
when he was with the Dodgers, and then he just disappeared.
They traded him at the deadline, and this is probably
there's a couple players that have improved. Most of them
have not with the White Sox with Perez is one
of those guys that really has, and I think he's trending.
(15:51):
The trend is upwards eighteen to twenty five home runs.
He could play all over the infield, so he could
fall into cover of super util role. But I think
there's gonna be a lot of doubles, twelve to fifteen
home runs, maybe eighteen, eighteen to twenty something like that,
handful of stolen bases, pitting two forty to two sixty.
(16:12):
I think that's the kind of player that we're looking at.
It's a pretty good baseball player and a guy that
you know might get you four hundred and fifty to
five hundred bats annually, playing all over the field. Could
be an interesting guy, particularly in those draft and hold leagues,
not suggesting this season, but in the draft and hold
leagues where you need multi position eligibility, kind of in
(16:32):
that Enrika Hernandez kind of role, which you know, depending
on the format, can have value, and I definitely know
they have value in draft and hold leagues. But he's
definitely come up with a guy that should be back
on everyone's radar. Here's one of my favorite players in
the system. That is Jaden Fawski fau sk E. He
(16:55):
was the number forty four overall pick, where I didn't
like how the first round pick that the White Sox.
They didn't like it with Jacob Jacob Gonzales either, but
that's neither hearing nor there. But Fowski's got tools, man,
so he had a big commitment deaf as you they
ever paying to get in there. There's plenty of bat speed,
(17:18):
can really run. I think he's a guy if he
can hit enough, and that's what we don't know. But
if he can hit enough, he could quickly move into
a top one hundred upside type of guy. So first
year player drafts forty fourth overall pick, I would jump
on him late second round, early third round. I think
there could be something there. Harrio Ariati, I feel like
(17:42):
I've been writing about this guy forever. Comes in at
number nine. He was acquired from the Padres and Dylan
Ceies trade. Fastball can reach up the ninety six. He's
been moved to the bullpen. I think there is closer upside,
but he's never been able to throw strikes. That's always
been the problem with him. But it's big, big fastball.
(18:05):
So it's a guy that, Yeah, the Padres tried to start,
the White Sox try to start, and they've just said
enough and they've moved him to the bullpen. And I
think that'll get him up. Oh, he's already been up.
He got up in twenty twenty four, so I think
you'll see him again as a mainstay in the bullpen
next season, and there could be there's definitely could be
closer upside again. With the oh Grant Taylor moving to
(18:35):
the starting rotation, there's going to be an opportunity in
the bullpen, and Jordan Leisure looks like he's the number
one guy out there. Welcome in Gonzalez, who's ranked a
little bit later, is also in the bullpen, but I
think Arie Arty could join them as well. And then
finally number ten is Jacob Gonzalez. We saw him in
Triple A. He did. I think we see him at
(18:56):
some point next season. It's probably now blocked by Colson Montgomery.
I think Gonzales is the better defender. Who do the
White Sox have at third base? Gonzales can move Miguel Vargas, yeah,
or second base Chase me Drouff Yeah, yeah, yeah, I
mean I think Jacob Gonzales I think just kind of
(19:18):
adds more blaw to that middle endfield. I've not been
the highest on Gonzales. I think it's a guy that
can hit. He can really hit, but there's this modest
speed power. It's like five to ten stolen bases, five
to ten home runs. It might be more home run
pop as he matures and fills out, but this is
(19:39):
not a guy that's going to be stuffing the stat line.
So to me, it's a middle infielder type of player.
Maybe a little more, you know, so maybe a little more,
but I think that's kind of who the player is.
That is our top ten. If you want all twenty
and you want to support Tim and I in our
venture here with Prospect three sixty one, please join us
(19:59):
at the paper transite bat r o n dot com
fir slash Prospect three sixty one. It's five dollars a
month or fifty five dollars or fifty four dollars for
the for the gear, so you get a little bit
of a discount, ten percent discount. I believe something like that.
Don't live its numbers. Pups are telling me that it
is time to split. So I'm going to let you
(20:22):
guys go and until next and I'll be back. I
got a couple more podcasts to record, But until next time, guys,
be well. Uh Patreon members hang on and uh we'll
get back at it.
Good afternoon everyone. It is October twenty third, about twelve
forty five in the afternoon. I have been a wall
for the last few days, moving back to North Carolina
from our New Jersey home. A couple of days to
drive down, a couple days to get everything unpacked and
the dust out and so forth. So I am back
(00:22):
doing baseball. Today is our Hot Prospects of the week
and we are talking to Chicago White Sox, which got produced,
got sent out. I got produced several weeks ago, but
was actually for consumption to our Patreon members and to
the general public. The top ten on Tuesday, it would
have been the twenty first. And if I'm being honest
(00:46):
with the system, and I'm being honest with the White
Sox organization, I just don't like it. I mean, they've
had every opportunity to build a really good farm system,
but Noah Schultz was their big guy, and boy, he
has just really struggled to throw strikes and he's got
(01:07):
some serious platoon splits, which we'll get into. Hagen Smith
was their big at Big Pick in twenty twenty four,
and he's walking nearly six per nine and even in
the Arizon fall leag he's got good stuff, good fastball, slider.
In fact, he's struck out sixteen and nine innings in
the Fall League but walked five. So, by the way,
(01:29):
just in the Fall League. I say this every time,
and yet I'm seeing Patreon comments, I'm seeing baseball three
sixty five Justin's Facebook pages. It comes up on my
Facebook feed. Everybody all in on Esmralyn Valdez. I get
that he is at a six seven home runs already.
(01:51):
He's just every time he gets up the ball's getting
hit very hard. So it's a good player, a guy
that did exactly the same thing he's doing in the
Fall when he was with in High A and he
got promoted to Double A where he saw better pitching,
better spend and he couldn't hit anything so and really
really struggled. So just be careful. The Arizona Fall League
(02:14):
is a hitters league, extraordinary. There's the pitching there is
not very good. Yeah, you get the Hagen Smith who
have really good stuff, and every once in a while,
every third day go run into a good picture. That
pitch is three three innings, which is what Smith did.
But most guys, they're going up against our twenty six
year old kids pitchers that teams are deciding whether they
(02:40):
should hang on to them or DFA them, or you know,
should they put him out to the if they dfa
and then they put on the Rule five draft which
comes up later this year. So that that's who these
pitchers are. I mean, there's a ton of them out there,
but they're not very many elite pictures. So I just
(03:01):
want to make sure everybody needs to check their kind
of aggressiveness and ceiling of young Valdez. It's a good,
good player, but this is not the next Willie Mays
or Hank Aaron or you know, some big power hitting
(03:22):
player coming up. But anyway, back to the White Sox,
so if we take a look at their it's scary
over here to roster resource and see what's going on.
To take a look at their major league team, just
so I know what I'm talking about. They're the White
Sox down here. So I mean, Colesa Montgomery hit a
(03:48):
ton of home runs. He also struck out thirty percent
of the time or twenty nine percent of the time,
and good defender. You know, there's plenty of guys coming
up here are better to at shortstop. I just think
he's a low batting average guy that's going to hit
home runs. There's very little speed, So there's that. Kyle
Teal has been disappointing. Let's face it came over at
(04:10):
Brady Montgomery, their number one prospect, came over with him
to the Red Sox and that Crochet deal. Lendyon Sosa
is an okay player. Edward Quaro I like a lot.
That's an interesting you know, used to be catcher. Now
he looks like he said DH because Kyle Thiel's at catching.
Chase Meredith me droth excuse me? Andrew Bin attendee, Michael Vargas,
(04:35):
Corey Lee, Curtis Meat. I always like Curtis Meet. He's
just not been able to hit. Major league pitching. That's
a bad lineup. Still, it's just a bad lineup. There's
no other way to say it. Starting pitcher Shane Smith
had a really good season. Grant Taylor you like as
the closer, but he's going to move into a, you know,
(04:58):
a starting pitcher role. In fact, Brush Resource has him
as an SP four. I like that guy as a starter.
We saw the stuff that he has in short bursts.
It's not going to play as well as a starter.
John Burk's been okay, but it's up, that's up below
average rotation, and then I think the Schultz and Hagen
(05:20):
Smith were going to come up and it basically be
your one and number two, And that just doesn't look
like this happens to The White Socks are a long
way away. So I'm a little discouraged about the White
Sox are doing. So let's get into it. Let's see
the player profiles, and then we'll go back and talk
maybe about the AI where AI sees all this first
(05:40):
pick players that Brady Montgomery started off in low way
made it all the way up to Double A. He
was the Red Sox first round pick in twenty twenty four.
Guy I really loved at the draft. I added him
to a bunch of teams. It was okay last season,
struggled when he saw better pitching twenty nine percent strikeout
(06:05):
rate in twenty two games in Double A. So I mean,
so there's there is some challenges with his contact, but
there's definitely some power, particularly power and good speed. Though
there's you know, he did hurt his knee in college,
and you know, I don't think that he's ever going
to be a high stolen base guy. But you know,
I think if he can make enough contact, which at
(06:27):
this juncture i'm pretty bullish on there's twenty five plus
arm run power there and you have a high single digit,
low double digit stolen base, I still think he's going
to be a very good player. It might come with
a two forty two fifty batting average, but he does
walk a lot, so you could see a two three
twenty three thirty on base percentage, which should be good
enough for the whole thing to play. I think he
(06:50):
comes up next season and I think he's going to
be one of the better players on the team. I
think he is a better version of Colson Montgomery, guy
that's going to be able to to hit more Colt
Montgomery's got. Oddly both have the same last name, Colst
Montgomery's got huge raw power, which you know, I knew
(07:10):
kind of as he was coming through the minor leagues.
He was hurt all the time too, a ton of
leverage in the swing. We have to see what the
data says on Brad Montgomery in terms of how much
leverage is on his swing. Noah Schultz, left handed pitcher. Again,
they still have him as a fairly high top prospect
ranked fairly high, and it's good stuff. Fastball is up
to ninety seven sits more ninety four ninety five. But
(07:37):
here's the problem. It gets right hand at batters. They
posted a three to twenty average of four to sixty
three slug against them. I mean those are ugly splits
and made it did it in double A and the
same thing with showing in triple A. So it's a
big time slider, good fastball, not a premium fastball, though
(07:59):
at a lefty three growing averaging ninety four miles an
hour should be good enough. He needs to find the
change up. If he doesn't find a change up, the
glove side batters are going to kill him, which they're
doing right now. So I put as a fantasy, is
the only wide variants top of the rotation to a
bullpen or I mean, if he cannot get glove side
batters out right handed hitters in this particular standpoint, I mean,
(08:23):
it's going to be problematic. Now. Can he turn it
around and come to camp this season with a splitter,
go to drive line and they help him figure that out,
or come in with a change up. Absolutely, let's hope
he does that. He could also move to a to
a two seemer and get that two seamer running out
basically running away from glove side batters. And you see
(08:46):
that a lot with pictures doing that. But he's got
to find something otherwise it's going to be tough going. So, plus,
the control is not there, and a part of that
is is because he's really tall. So I think as
he he aiins more experienced that five point eight walks
per nine will come down. But I'm not sure it's
ever going to be elite control. So I know, in fact,
(09:11):
I probably fell into this as well because you take
a look at his size and the fact that he's
got that seventy eighty grade slider, and he says top
of the rotation guy. But as we got data on
him and we started to see him going up against
better hitters, I mean the warts started to show, if
you will. So that's Noah Schultz as you can tell
them a little down on him. Billy Carlson shortstop, He
(09:34):
was the number tenth overall pick this past season. He
is might be a seventy grade defender, maybe eighty grade
at shortstop. So this is a really this is a
great defensive player that will probably spend ten to fifteen
(09:54):
years in major League baseball. The question is he going
to be a full time regular. And it's a great
hit tool, so he could be. But from a fantasy standpoint,
the tools are a little light. He's got average power,
he's got average two above average speeds. I mean, there
could be fifteen to twenty stolen bases early in his career,
(10:18):
but I think as he gets into his mid to
late twenties, I think you'll see that pull back to
you know, five to eight stolen bases and twelve to
fifteen type of home runs, who plays elite defense, hits
at the top of the lineup because of his ability
to make contact. And I think as you're at the
draft table next first year player draft that you need
(10:40):
to have that player profile on mine as you are
thinking through where you draft this guy, I think he's
going to be lower for me than number ten. I
just don't think the high end tools are there to
make him really really interesting. But I mean it's definitely
a safe guy, almost a little bit like Jacob Gonzales
who they draft a few years ago. And so that's uh,
(11:04):
I think that's that's what we can expect with Billy
Carlson two three, number four is Tanner McDougall. Great fast
but probably the best stuff in the system. And you know,
No Schultz has got great stuff as well as does
Hagen Smith. And McDougall's got the fastball, a little touch,
one hundred, big time curveball. Slider change up also shows
(11:29):
a lot of promise. The promise is control. Five point
seven walks per nine in twenty four and then he
brought it down a little bit. But the good news
is when he hit double a something clicked and then
he was only walking three per nine or actually two
point eight per nine and fifteen starts. Now that all works.
(11:51):
I mean you're talking you're talking a front front of
the rotation guy at least the top forty starting pitcher,
maybe even more than that. I mean, there's a whole
to like. He He's got size at six foot five,
big time stuff. All he he's looking for his control.
So this could be somebody who becomes very, very interesting.
I have his et at twenty twenty seven. If he
(12:13):
comes into camp still throwing strikes, you could see him
next season. And everybody's talking about Hagen Smith. Everybody saw
about No Schultz. Don't let Tanner McDougall kind of run
away from you and Greg going to somebody else's team.
Hagan Smith comes in at number five, obviously lefting a
pitcher I've already talked about. He has good stuff. Again,
(12:34):
it's a good fastball slider. When I took a look
at the Baseball Savant game that he threw, let's see
what game am I looking at? October sixteenth, the Glendale
Desert Dogs. He threw sixty pitches one change up, so
(12:55):
he was primarily a fastball slider that evening. So he
his change up. He doesn't throw that often. He hasn't
really needed it, but the problem is controlled. But fastballs
not average ninety four point five up to ninety six.
Slider's just a really good pitch thirty six percent with
rate on it. Maximum velocity is up to eighty five,
(13:16):
so it's good separation between his fastball and his slider,
and the change up is actually thrown in between those,
and that looks like it's about an eight mile hour
different So you typically want to see a fastball and
slider differential of seven miles per hour and then a
change up more like ten miles an hour, So you'd
(13:38):
like to see a greater velo separation on the change up,
but he just doesn't have that, which is part of
the reason that you know he might struggle and it
hasn't shown up yet against gloveside batters in this case,
right hand at batters. But it's all about the walks.
And again he walked six point seven per nine, and
then you know, there was talk of he hit the eel,
(14:03):
and there was always talk of did he hit the
eye out because of an injury or did he hit
the eel because the White Sox basically wanted to excuse me,
rejig his delivery, try to get him close more in
line with the plate, and I never heard resolution on that.
I wouldn't be surprised if it was just to help
(14:23):
him learn to throw better strikes. Coming. Number six is
Caleb Bonamer. Caleb Bonamer saw him early in the season.
Huge raw power, a little bit of speed, current speed.
I think that will dwindle as it goes down, but
it's an interesting guy. I think he's going to, you know,
strike out a lot, but he could he could hit
(14:45):
twenty maybe twenty five home runs. Probably. He's going to
be a third base that's been playing a bit of
shortstop this past season, but I think eventually he's just
going to become a third baseman. So people need to
you know, it's a guy if he's tooling around on
your waiver wires, the guy that you might want to
think about acquiring because I think there is something there.
(15:07):
I don't have them on any team. It's a little slow.
I just liked the other players better. But he's probably
in that one seventy five to two hundred range. I'm
going from memory. I don't have that up at all,
but that's where I think you So that's player number six.
Player number seven is Jirell Perez, who has made a
(15:29):
pretty remarkable improvement from what he showed last season. He's
at the beginning of last season. He was really good
when he was with the Dodgers, and then he just disappeared.
They traded him at the deadline, and this is probably
there's a couple players that have improved. Most of them
have not with the White Sox with Perez is one
of those guys that really has, and I think he's trending.
(15:51):
The trend is upwards eighteen to twenty five home runs.
He could play all over the infield, so he could
fall into cover of super util role. But I think
there's gonna be a lot of doubles, twelve to fifteen
home runs, maybe eighteen, eighteen to twenty something like that,
handful of stolen bases, pitting two forty to two sixty.
(16:12):
I think that's the kind of player that we're looking at.
It's a pretty good baseball player and a guy that
you know might get you four hundred and fifty to
five hundred bats annually, playing all over the field. Could
be an interesting guy, particularly in those draft and hold leagues,
not suggesting this season, but in the draft and hold
leagues where you need multi position eligibility, kind of in
(16:32):
that Enrika Hernandez kind of role, which you know, depending
on the format, can have value, and I definitely know
they have value in draft and hold leagues. But he's
definitely come up with a guy that should be back
on everyone's radar. Here's one of my favorite players in
the system. That is Jaden Fawski fau sk E. He
(16:55):
was the number forty four overall pick, where I didn't
like how the first round pick that the White Sox.
They didn't like it with Jacob Jacob Gonzales either, but
that's neither hearing nor there. But Fowski's got tools, man,
so he had a big commitment deaf as you they
ever paying to get in there. There's plenty of bat speed,
(17:18):
can really run. I think he's a guy if he
can hit enough, and that's what we don't know. But
if he can hit enough, he could quickly move into
a top one hundred upside type of guy. So first
year player drafts forty fourth overall pick, I would jump
on him late second round, early third round. I think
there could be something there. Harrio Ariati, I feel like
(17:42):
I've been writing about this guy forever. Comes in at
number nine. He was acquired from the Padres and Dylan
Ceies trade. Fastball can reach up the ninety six. He's
been moved to the bullpen. I think there is closer upside,
but he's never been able to throw strikes. That's always
been the problem with him. But it's big, big fastball.
(18:05):
So it's a guy that, Yeah, the Padres tried to start,
the White Sox try to start, and they've just said
enough and they've moved him to the bullpen. And I
think that'll get him up. Oh, he's already been up.
He got up in twenty twenty four, so I think
you'll see him again as a mainstay in the bullpen
next season, and there could be there's definitely could be
closer upside again. With the oh Grant Taylor moving to
(18:35):
the starting rotation, there's going to be an opportunity in
the bullpen, and Jordan Leisure looks like he's the number
one guy out there. Welcome in Gonzalez, who's ranked a
little bit later, is also in the bullpen, but I
think Arie Arty could join them as well. And then
finally number ten is Jacob Gonzalez. We saw him in
Triple A. He did. I think we see him at
(18:56):
some point next season. It's probably now blocked by Colson Montgomery.
I think Gonzales is the better defender. Who do the
White Sox have at third base? Gonzales can move Miguel Vargas, yeah,
or second base Chase me Drouff Yeah, yeah, yeah, I
mean I think Jacob Gonzales I think just kind of
(19:18):
adds more blaw to that middle endfield. I've not been
the highest on Gonzales. I think it's a guy that
can hit. He can really hit, but there's this modest
speed power. It's like five to ten stolen bases, five
to ten home runs. It might be more home run
pop as he matures and fills out, but this is
(19:39):
not a guy that's going to be stuffing the stat line.
So to me, it's a middle infielder type of player.
Maybe a little more, you know, so maybe a little more,
but I think that's kind of who the player is.
That is our top ten. If you want all twenty
and you want to support Tim and I in our
venture here with Prospect three sixty one, please join us
(19:59):
at the paper transite bat r o n dot com
fir slash Prospect three sixty one. It's five dollars a
month or fifty five dollars or fifty four dollars for
the for the gear, so you get a little bit
of a discount, ten percent discount. I believe something like that.
Don't live its numbers. Pups are telling me that it
is time to split. So I'm going to let you
(20:22):
guys go and until next and I'll be back. I
got a couple more podcasts to record, But until next time, guys,
be well. Uh Patreon members hang on and uh we'll
get back at it.
Popular Podcasts
Stuff You Should Know
If you've ever wanted to know about champagne, satanism, the Stonewall Uprising, chaos theory, LSD, El Nino, true crime and Rosa Parks, then look no further. Josh and Chuck have you covered.
Dateline NBC
Current and classic episodes, featuring compelling true-crime mysteries, powerful documentaries and in-depth investigations. Follow now to get the latest episodes of Dateline NBC completely free, or subscribe to Dateline Premium for ad-free listening and exclusive bonus content: DatelinePremium.com
On Purpose with Jay Shetty
I’m Jay Shetty host of On Purpose the worlds #1 Mental Health podcast and I’m so grateful you found us. I started this podcast 5 years ago to invite you into conversations and workshops that are designed to help make you happier, healthier and more healed. I believe that when you (yes you) feel seen, heard and understood you’re able to deal with relationship struggles, work challenges and life’s ups and downs with more ease and grace. I interview experts, celebrities, thought leaders and athletes so that we can grow our mindset, build better habits and uncover a side of them we’ve never seen before. New episodes every Monday and Friday. Your support means the world to me and I don’t take it for granted — click the follow button and leave a review to help us spread the love with On Purpose. I can’t wait for you to listen to your first or 500th episode!