Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Greetings everyone. It is October twenty fourth, about two forty
five in the afternoon, calling from beautiful ocean aw Beach,
North Carolina, where it is seventy degrees and absolutely not
a cloud in the sky. We'll have a beautiful sunset
here at the back window. Just beautiful. Where we live
(00:21):
in oceanew Beach. Our house does not sit on the ocean.
We're about two blocks from the ocean, but we sit
on a canal that dumps into the Inner Coastal Waterway,
and North Carolina Beach is at least where we are.
When you look at the ocean, you're actually looking south.
So if you ever look at a map, it's kind
of weird. Part of North Carolina goes east to west.
(00:43):
The coastline is opposed to north to south. So consequently,
long story short, we're facing due west and we have
these unobstructed views of for the most part, if they
go back over the houses, we don't because you know,
the earth moves and stuff. We get these unobstructed views
of the of a sunset. It's just stunning. So we
(01:05):
enjoy that almost every evening that it is sunny. Ounce.
I'm looking forward to that always. Life is always fun
here on the beach, except when the hurricanes come, which
are way too often. Okay, today we are doing the
Cleveland Guardians top prospects. If you are a Patreon member,
you're gonna get all twenty five. If you're not a
(01:26):
Patreon memory, you're gonna get the top ten. I think
there's some really interesting guys in the eleven to twenty range. So,
I mean, this is an interesting one. If it's if
you thought about joining the Patreon site, now's the time
to do that. So, but it's five dollars a month.
Is Patreon pat r o n dot com Forward slash
(01:47):
prospect three sixty one, So I hope you will consider
joining us. The top of the system, I think it's
a little light. I've got Angel Genoah as the numbernumber
one prospect. I think he's one of the lighter number
one prospects. Travis Bizana is two. Should Travis Bizan to
be number one? Maybe? I mean he was the number
(02:10):
one overall pick a couple of years ago. But just
I mean, I had a terrible season and I just
felt like I had to drop him. And Ganoah's doesn't
have the most fantasy friendly skills, but he can really hit,
and I think as she as he adds strength, there's
(02:31):
going to be more power there. So he might be
one of these guys that if we take a look
at him now, we don't expect him to be an impact,
impact player, but I think as he continues to mature,
he still a really young kid. It's a guy that
I believe is going to have huge upside. So from
an upside standpoint, I still think top fifteen shortstop, but
(02:53):
they're having to bet a lot of to come, so
you kind of compare him to Jesus Maday, both in
double A. But you're already starting to see that power
and the crazy bat speed and the tools and the
physicality of the player come out and you can go, yeah,
I'm starting to believe in that angel Genoah, you're having
(03:13):
to kind of still project and still bet huge on
the comp that he's actually going to physically develop. But
if he does, there's plus speed, there could be double
digit home runs. It could be kind of a twelve
forty kind of guy who should be able to hit,
and that's what you really like. So if he develops
(03:34):
that power, he gets stronger, I think you're looking at
again a top shortstop Travis Bizana came in as the
number one overall prospect where the Guardians they thought they
were getting a guy that can hit, and ultimately he
still might hit. But if you've watched video of his games,
and there's a lot of stuff out there now to watch,
(03:55):
I mean, it is definitely a hitch and in a
swing he gets all base a lot, but the swing
is problematic until he reworks that swing. I'm down on
Travis Bizana now. I know he'll get a shot next season.
He could even break camp or be up soon as
the second basemin the for the Cleveland Guardians. I think
(04:19):
I've always thought the fantasy tools were a little light.
So with the lightness of his tools, you were expecting
him to hit, and all of a sudden he comes
with the hitching his swing, doesn't appear to be willing
to change that, and it kind of queers the whole
kind of profile of him. You know, it's like, what
do we think this who this guy is going to become.
(04:42):
And that's what worries me with Bazana. But should be
an on base percentage guy, so on base percentage leagues
you like it. It's not a guy that'd be interested,
and in fact, I drafted him last year in twenty
twenty fives draft and hold leagues. I'm not going to
do that this season, even though he didn't come up
(05:04):
last year, because I was kind of going on that
small sample size when he originally got drafted and the
scouting report that said, you know that, I thought he
would be a guy that would hit, and until he
shows a better hit tol, I'm down shifting on him.
But he will be up next season. Chase the Louder
I got to his highest level triple A. That's because
(05:25):
I finished this up before the playoffs began. Should have
gone back and updated that to be majors. Obviously, he
made it to the major leagues and the playoffs, which
is kind of crazy, right, You don't typically see that.
And look, I think Chase, Chase the Louder is going
to be a very good baseball player, and that's why
I have his fantasy stealing. Is still a top forty
(05:47):
five outfielder. But the injuries are just ridiculous. I mean
it is. I mean, it's horrific. What has happened to
this guy? I mean every year something happened. For a while,
it was his foot and I don't even know what
it was last year. I can't even remember. It's just
every time you look down turf toe, I think it
was a sports harnia. I mean, it's everything. This poor
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guy cannot stay healthy. I mean, you hepe he's going
to have a run, much like Anthony Rendon had a run.
Anthony Risdome was always hurting, always hurt. Early in his career.
They had a run of like five or six years
where he was a stalwart and then of a sudden,
you just you know, his body just failed him after
he signed that big contract, almost immediately after he signed
(06:31):
that big contract with the Angels, Maybe Chase the Louder
or have a five or six seven year kind of
run where he'll be healthy, much like Anthony Rendon and
be able to show what he can do. Look, he's
added a lot of leverage to his swing. He's not
he doesn't hit the ball all that hard, but there's
still because of the high leverage swing, there's twenty home
(06:52):
run potential. Usual you see guys with highly leveraged swings,
they have a tendency to strike out a lot. It's
not the case is Chased the Louder. He also works, works,
walks very well. So I mean, look, I mean he is,
he's going to hit. I think there's going to be
twenty home run pop handful of stolen bases, and I
(07:13):
think be one of those kind of that's the kind
of player he is. Like two eighty three point fifty
with eighteen to twenty home runs and a handful of
stolen base That's that's a pretty good baseball player. I
think it's a low risk, high floor playing. Not a
low risk high floor player, but the risk of sky
high just because he's not been able to stay healthy.
(07:36):
One of my favorite players in the minor leagues who's had,
who had a tough season last year, and Welbin Francesca
came into two thousand, twenty five never hitting below three
hundred in his entire career at any level. I grant
that the career was twenty twenty three and twenty four,
but still two years of hitting over three hundred. Last
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season it fell a party. He had a two twenty
nine batting that now again, he finally he got out
of the complex league in the DSL. Saying you're saying, okay, Wilson,
he's finally going up against better pitching yet, but the
guy can hit. He only struck out seventeen percent of
the time. He walked twelve percent of the time. But
a lot of the problem came down to just some unluckiness. Right,
(08:18):
he had a two seventy three babbitt. I think once
that corrects, he's you know, you're gonna see that bad
and average pop back up. Now. It's not going to
pop back up to three hundred. Part of the reasons
are gonna pep up pop back up the three hundred.
He needs to get stronger. Uh, there is definitely plus speed.
He stole forty five bases last year, got caught twelve times.
(08:39):
I don't think he's at the Trey Turner eighty great speed.
It's more of a sixty sixty five runner. So I
think you're looking at twenty twenty five stolen bases. But
I think as he matures and fills out, it's going
to be eight to ten home runs, maybe a bit more,
and a guy that's going to hit. I think he's
a chance to be a very very good baseball player.
(08:59):
And the Guardians will start him in high a least,
That's what I've been told. They're gonna start him in
high aid to begin the twenty twenty sixties, and they
still like what they saw. They love the athleticism, played
a really good second base and could fill in at shortstop.
So they're still pretty high on them. I'm still pretty
high on them. Let's see what happens when you know,
(09:20):
the new year starts. He gets that Babbitt corrected back
up to three twenty three thirty, which is probably where
he'll sit, and all of a sudden that adds sixty
points to his batting average does and he's hitting two
seventy and you know, two seventy two eighty and all
is forgiven. Pooper, Cooper Ingle Catcher should see the major
(09:41):
leagues in the coming season. I have was et at
twenty twenty six a guy that can Again, Guardians love
guys that can control the strike zone. We saw that well.
Travis Mazzana was supposed to, Travis de Lauder does, Angel
Genoa does, Welbin Francesca does, and Cooper ingles another guys.
Their top five guys are players that the Guardian's love
(10:05):
is high floor control the strike zone very well with
you know, kind of modest speed, speed and power. I
will say, Cooper Ingle, you know he feels more like
a fifteen home run guy. I mean, if he adds
a little leverage, gets a little stronger, maybe there's a
bit more in there. But in two catcher leagues, it's
(10:26):
an interesting guy. Now, Bo Naylor as hasn't been very
good for his first couple of years in the league.
He did play a little bit better in the second
half last season, so maybe he's starting to figure it out.
If not, I think Cooper Ingle is going to be
the guy that they might turn to by mid season
next year. Wanbrido love Wan Brito, but high end exit velocities.
(10:48):
I think there's enough power there for twelve to fifteen
home runs. Unfortunately, hurt his thumb in April, spent a
couple of months on the IL. Then he suffered a
hamstring problem and he never returned, and he's not in
the Fall League. I do not believe so, But again
it's it is a guy. He is another Cleveland Guardian guy,
a guy that can hit, good zone control, good solid contact,
(11:12):
a guy that's going to hit twelve to fifteen armed
runs with some stolen bases. Really nice player if he
can stay healthy. But again, these top six guys all hitters.
Very very similar in kind of approach and style. I
like genoah the most, probably Bizano and the louder after that.
Well in Francesca. If he can I think if he
(11:33):
gets a little bit stronger and can can come bounce
back from you know, a tough season last year, I
think that's a guy that might really shoot up to
be number one in the system. Coming to number seven
as Parker Messick. Now, I'm always been down on Parker Messick.
Part of the reason is he just doesn't throw that hard.
Let me get over to his Baseball Savant page. He
(11:54):
was actually very good when he was got the call.
Thirty nine thirty nine, two thirds innings, a two seventy
two ERA three wins. Yeah, he's a he's a guardian pitcher,
so they're always going to perform a little bit better. Uh,
the expected ERA was three or four, so that's pretty
good on two seventy two. So all that's good through
(12:14):
his fastball sitting ninety two point eight, so that's what
it's averaging. It doesn't throw all that hard. Now it's
a wifth rate of twenty nine percent, which is pretty interesting.
He doesn't have great extension, but it does have a
pretty good verticant inverted vertical break. He's probably sitting in
the top third of the league. I kind of researched that.
But it's the change up that's his money pitch, and
(12:36):
usual the guys that come in the league with really
good change ups can't have early success, and I think
that's what we've seen with Parker Mezik. I think he's
going to turn into, you know, a number four kind
of starter. I just think that's who the player is.
I don't think the stuff is good enough to be
above that. Now, again, Guardians guys always performed better than
(12:58):
their stuff does because they the guard to get them
to use their pitch as well with really good mixes
on the pitches. But I still think it's a number
four starter. Well, there could be some upside, so I
put number four starter with upside. Probably the most disappointing
player in the on the Guardians organization was Jason Churio, Yes,
(13:18):
Jackson's little brother. I grabbed him in a couple of
Dinasa leagues a few years back, and it looked like
he was going to be a guy that had speed,
was going to be able to hit, didn't have the
kind of power that Jackson Cheerio had not even close
to the power that he had, but he just hasn't
filled out. He's just not eating the ball hard enough.
And he did walk nearly twenty percent of the times.
(13:41):
That passive approach is probably hurting him there as well.
But I mean, it was a bad season and he
really I mean, he just did not do anything at all.
Did miss time with his shoulder injury, but he struggled
before that. I just think he's got to get more
aggressive at the plate. He needs to put on some strain.
Then maybe he comes back in twenty twenty six a
(14:03):
stronger kid. If he does, I think that's going to
improve things. I'm not going to drop him until I
see where we are in like May with him, But
if it's more of the same, it's Cyonario with Jason Churio.
Number nine is Kyle Stefan made it to double A
was a Blue Jay drafted guy, came over that Shane
(14:25):
Bieber trade at the deadline fastballs. He's one of the
guys that has really jumped up in this league as
a fastball change up. Well, not in not in the
Cleveland's list because he's obviously new to the organization. But
he's actually moved up on my top five hundred fastballs
now touching ninety six miles in our has got a
(14:46):
huge spin on it. I think he's a guy that
could be a number four, maybe a number three starter.
I really like what Kyle Stephan is doing. Number ten
is Braylan Dowdy Doug h t Y. He was The
Guardian's competitive pick in twenty twenty four. Thirdays it's only
(15:07):
six feet tall, doesn't have the big fastball, but man
does he have really great secondary pitches. So he's a
perfect guy that should exceed what his core skills are
just because he can pitch. He's got really good secondary pitches,
and there'll be more strikeouts than you think, because the
(15:28):
secondary pitches are what gets guys out. From a strikeout standpoint,
a lot of people think it's fastball. The fastball sets
up everything, but it's the secondary pitches. So you're usually
throwing if you've got a good fastball, you're throwing ninety
seven ninety eight something like that, and the hitters got
to speed up. He's got to start a little sooner,
(15:50):
and then if you've got a good secondary pitches, that's
where you get all the strikeouts, right, But if you
don't have a big fastball, then you can wait. You
don't have to speed your up a little bit, so
you can have a chance to wait a little longer
to see what that secondary pitch is going to be,
if that makes sense. So secondary pitches where you get
all your strikeouts and we don't have the big fastball,
(16:12):
everything kind of plays down, and that's what you worry
about with guys like Messick and Dowdy. But Dowdy's still
only nineteen years old. There could be more gas in
the tank. So I'm kind of still pretty bullish on him.
I personally have him in a couple of dinings of
the things and will not be making a move there.
(16:32):
So that's it. That is our top ten again. If
you'd like to join us out at the Patreon site,
please do that patre o n dot com forward SLA
Prospect three sixty one and for our Patrion members, hold
on and after this break, I will do the rest
of the fifteen