July 16, 2025 • 18 mins
Join Joe Pisapia (@JoePisapia17) and Chris Welsh (@IsItTheWelsh) as they highlight six players on the trade block this week that you should be looking to make a move on!
Timestamps: (May be off due to ads)
Intro - 0:00:00
Mookie Betts - 0:00:30
Roman Anthony - 0:03:30
Dylan Cease - 0:06:10
FantasyPros Trade Analyzer - 0:09:10
Caleb Durbin 3B MIL - 0:09:47
Lucas Giolito - 0:11:30
José Berríos - 0:13:35
Keepers To Keep an Eye On - 0:16:00
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:05):
Welcome in if riding to Fantasy pros MLB. It's time
to make some trades. It is me, Joey p Joe
pisif here with me, of course is the Welsh, and
this is our last big trade video heading into the
latter part of the season, the stretch run. So if
you're in it, if you're out of it, or even
if you're looking ahead and keeper leagues, we're gonna do
our best to help you make the right moves to
(00:26):
do just that, which is success for the short and
the long term. We're gonna have all the success we
possibly can. And Welsh, I want to start with a
guy who's probably been one of the more disappointing assets
that we've seen all season long, Mookie Bets top five
overall selection, just eleven home runs on the season, six RBI.
And let's be honest too, the last thirty days of
(00:48):
not being kind to Mookie Bets, if you look at
some of the numbers for him, he has just one
home run over his last twenty five games here for him,
actually just two home runs. Pardon me, he's hitting a
buck eighty six over that period. Ops, Welsh, it's five
to oh seven now, I was concerned about Mookie Bets
going into the season because he had that illness or
he lost all the weight, and I thought, man, it's
(01:08):
a long season. This seems like a bad situation. But
then things started to go okay for him. But it
has not been very good towards the end of June
and beginning of July from Mookie Bets. But I want
to bet on the talent of a player at Mookie
Bets is extraordinary talent. Hopefully this All Star break is
exactly what he needs to reset. So if I'm looking
for a big time impact bat, a guy who can
(01:30):
do it all, I think Mookie Bets is worth that risk.
What do you think?
Speaker 2 (01:34):
Yeah, I think I agree with you too, because the
sentiment around him too is just so bad. Just like
you know, when you look at the first round, he
is probably at the tippy top or like right at
the cusp. I think who the Rodriguez was one of
those who we were buying in the last video that
we did. But I think Mooki is kind of in
that spot where the batting average is struggled. He's not
stealing bases, the homer, everything just looks very mediocre. But
(01:56):
you know, a lot of the metrics are just still there.
He's got expected batting average that's fifteen points higher. It's
really one of the lowest he's had in the last
like five or six years, but it is still higher.
He's not striking out. He does this launch angle sweet
spot thing where he gets the ball in the air
and pulls it. He's doing a decent job of that.
He's still got an over ninety percent zone contact even
(02:18):
if it's down. So it's like, wherever the downticks are,
a lot of who Mookie bets is is still there.
So if ninety five percent of the Mookie that we
know is still there, then I think it's it's in
a safer place to start betting on. Like who we
know him from before, which is, you know, a thirty
plus home run guy. He struggled at home this year,
which seems like a kind of a weird thing. I
(02:39):
think he can bounce back. He's only two thirty eight
at home, which why that's important that they're one of
the best ballpark for rein headed hitters, for pull side homers,
and that is something that he specifically does. I talked
about launch angle, sweet spot. He is able to hit
the ball in away where he gets it in the
air and he drops bombs at home, and I think
he's going to kind of get back to that. He's
also weirdly struggled against slow lighters this year, like oddly,
(03:02):
it's like he's really really hitting poorly, but expected batting
averages really on most all pitch types are higher. So
I think, like we could talk about all the like,
you know, the logistics of why he's Mookie Betts. I
think that's another way we put it, Like we know
it's a Dodgers team who's gonna go hamm in the
second half. Mookie Betts has always been a first round
ish talent. He's really struggling. I think people are letting go,
(03:24):
and I think there are many metrics that are working
in his favor to say that it is a goodbye.
So that's kind of the layman's way to just go
about giving a little bit of justification on why you
should buy a player like Mookie Bets.
Speaker 1 (03:37):
I'd also be buying Roman Anthony. Over his first one
hundred bats in the big leagues, it's very easy to
look and say, oh, two home runs and two steals,
two sixty four batting average, a seven to seventy seven
ops E I think to really get excited about or
see here, But I think that's wrong. I think if
you look at what he's been doing lately the last
fifteen games, he's think three seventy three over that span
with a four to thirty nine OBP and a five
(03:58):
twenty five slugging Roman Anthony starting to figure it out.
The Red Sox are getting hot. Alex Bregman is back
in that lineup now. I think this Red Sox renaissance
is for real, and I think Anthony is gonna be
one of these guys I would even say is really
in the think of it. You can get ten to
one on him for Rookie of the Year right now
in the American League. All of a sudden, Jacob Wilson's
going back to the pack a little bit here in
that race too. I could see Roman Anthony really making
(04:21):
a run of this in the second half, especially if
the Red Sox get carried not only to the playoffs
but maybe even dare I say, the American League East title.
I think Roman Anthony right now this might be the
last chance to buy him for any redraft league.
Speaker 2 (04:35):
I actually like the betting angle to that too, because
they're on a big run. He's an important piece of it.
He's hitting you in a really important part of the lineup.
His profile looks really great. Fifty five percent hard hit
with a double digit barrel. That is chef's kiss. That
is exactly what you want. He's doing this all also
while not getting the ball really like pulling it in
the air. He's got an eight percent pull rate, which sucks,
(04:57):
and his launch angles three like those are both so
that what I'm getting at is there's a there's room
for improvement on that. And as far as pitch types go,
he's hitting over two to eighty against off speed and
breaking off speed and fastballs. He's breaking pitches. He's struggling,
but he's got an expected batting average. All right, I'm sorry,
it's the inverse. He's really beneficial on breaking pitches. It
(05:18):
is the fastballs that it's like around two fifty but
expected to eighty five. So I just think the quality
of contact again, layming it back like, the profile looks good.
The quality of contact is solid, and Roman Anthony's gonna
be a big piece of the Red Sox being successful
in the second half. So kind of a good rookie
bye right now and a great rookie bet.
Speaker 1 (05:36):
Yes, I love the two have I already bet him
to win that award. I bet Misserroowski too when he
was ten to one. That's looking pretty decent, so fingers crossed.
I learned my lesson last year. You know, I flew
too coast to the sun two years ago. I got
them both right, Corb and Carol Gunner Henderson got the
duo bet and felt so good. I felt cocky Welsh.
But I was like Icarus last year and I melted
(05:56):
just way too early, and on Rookie of the Year.
So I waited to lost break ish to get a
feel for it. Wait until June ish July, and then
I'm making my moves. And my moves were Miserowski number one,
number two, Roman Anthony, where you get him right now?
Our last buy? And I know this is asking a
lot because he's been here before, and I know he
threw up another stinker this past week. I get it.
(06:17):
But I can't get away from the deeper metrics on
Dylan ceas I just can't. He's got an eleven k
per nine, his walk rate is still at a reasonable
three walk per nine his expected era is still so
much lower than his actual era is there is at
four to eight eight. The I can't imagine the cease
manager and I have zero shares this year. I can't
(06:38):
imagine where they're at, the frustrations they're at. Because the
expected era is three six, the fifth is three six nine,
and the X fIF is three four to three. All
of these metrics continue to scream, give Dylan Sees a break.
Hopefully he resets his brain and he comes back and
makes some adjustments to whatever is not going well for him,
or maybe it's just dumb luck. I don't know, but
I'm gonna die on this hill this year, and I
(07:00):
know I'm gonnaupset some people when I say buy Dylan Sees,
But I'm going to buy him for the stretch run
because there's not a lot of pitchers that I think
have that kind of talent, that kind of upside, that
are going to be available via trade who have struggled
consistently in that first half of the season. Ceases all
of those things, but all of the deeper numbers scream
that he could be better than what that three to
nine record shows you.
Speaker 2 (07:21):
So this is a tough one. But I'm gonna side
with you on this, and this is I'm going to
take an L with it too, because I brought up
and we broke caught up Dylan Cez like a month
ago and it has not worked. And that's an L
because he has not turned it around. But why this
is doable right now is because he's at an all
time load Dylan Ceese. You know, as people were putting
(07:42):
Zach Allen out to past year, people are now replacing
that with Dylan Cees. Dylan Ceze is done. He has
not recouped a couple string of good games. He's got
an almost five VRA. He's in i think the top
five of worst qualified starter eras out there like it's bad.
He's giving up too many barrels. So the reason you
can jump into those waters now is you're getting You're
(08:05):
almost at the point where it's like you can only
go up. I mean hopefully not your ear a going up,
but you can only go up. But also to what
you're saying, like the expected numbers are telling us still
a story over a run better expected era around three
and a half. His strikeouts are the same as they
were last year. Twenty nine Elite percent. He's not walking
a whole lot more, He's just giving up a lot
more barreled contact. But the difference now is that cost
(08:28):
should be so much cheaper. So if you bought before,
think you got to kind of hold because it's not
worth cutting bait. But he is at such a frickin'
low right now that I think, like why not you
could probably you could probably get him for sps that
are in the forties, probably some guys that you picked
up off the wire at this point. Now, that's where
the level of frustration is, and there's still a really
(08:50):
great second half upside for a guy like Dylan.
Speaker 1 (08:52):
Cees agreed one hundred percent. Man, Again, it's a leap
of faith, but that's what you gotta do to win
championship sometimes and sometimes price anding, like we talked about
on Talent pays off. I mean, look at last week
we talked about Julia Rodriguez buying him mister second half.
He had a pretty damn good weekend. So hopefully you
listened last Tuesday when the show came out. Before we
get to the guys we want to sell high on,
don't forget about the trade analyzer. Don't make a move
(09:15):
without the tools of Fantasy Pros. Fantasy Baseball My Playbook
app is available wherever you get your apps, or just
go to Fantasypros dot com slash MLB My Playbook. Remember,
and you sink your leagues for free. You also upgrade
right now. You get six months take you all the
way through NFL season as well as MLB and MLB playoffs.
So right now use the trade analyzer to help you
evaluate all the moves you want to make in all
(09:37):
of your fantasy baseball leagues. Again, Fantasy Pros is here
for you Fantasypros dot Com slash MLB My Playbook or
just download the Fantasy Baseball My Playbook app. Today, let's
start with Caleb Durbin on the sell highs here Welsh,
and look, this is not a knock on what the
kid's been able to do, because the kid has been
really exciting. Caleb Durbin has been I think better than
(09:58):
you could have possibly asked him to be. I just
don't think it's enough. I think at the end of
the day, we are still going to get a replacement here,
and I still say Juhenio Suarez is that guy. So
I don't want to knock what Caleb Durban has been
able to do. I think we can all step back
and say, hey, good job, buddy. I mean, he's in
three sixty five over the last thirty days. That's incredible.
(10:20):
He's got two home runs, He's got a nine oh
eight ops. I just don't know if that's exactly who
the Caleb Durban profile, considering he's a two to sixty
one hitter this season. So I think the Brewers are
for real. They're gonna go get another bat, and I
think Caleb Durban, unfortunately, is gonna be the odd man out.
What do you think. I think this is the time
to get out before the next two weeks hit and
he gets replaced.
Speaker 2 (10:40):
What this speaks more to of is not that you
can get a great value for Caleb Durbin and that
you need to figure it out. If you're relying on
Caleb Durban, you probably need to get out. I think
I agree with you. I think they're gonna go and
make a move. I think Swarez would be a great fit.
Caleb Durban can then become like a super util guy.
I would feel different if I was seeing the Caleb
Durban that I saw in the al that broke the
(11:01):
single season stolen based record all time. Even he's just
not stealing at an incredibly great clip, but he is
hitting well, hitting three forty six in July two ninety
six this past month. I just don't think it's enough
for them to make the commitment so in that, I
don't know if you can get a whole lot for
Caleb Durban, sure I would probably sell that. I think
they're gonna probably move on and he becomes more of
(11:22):
a super util guy that I don't want to like,
you know, rely on.
Speaker 1 (11:25):
Yeah, I think super util is probably very useful for
the Milwaukee Brewers as they make their playoff stretch. Run. Here,
who's got the best era in baseball over the last
thirty days. I bet you didn't know. It was Lucas Giolito.
Point eight three. That's how good he has been over
his last five starts. Thirty two winnings, twenty one hits,
thirty three strikeouts, seven walks. Now, look, this has been great.
(11:47):
If you pick him up off the waiver wire, you
can't possibly be happier than what Lucas Giolito has given you.
But this is unsustainable. It can't possibly be this good
for much longer. So I'm not trying to just completely
run a muck here and get rid of him. But
when you're talking about selling players at their peak, this
is it. This is the peak of Lucas Giolito. And
(12:07):
if you think you know what you saw in the
beginning of the year was scary and you're probably right,
this is the time where you can flip an asset
and get out from under Lucas Giolito. So I'm not
saying you have detroy him. I'm saying this is the
peak value. So Welsh, I know you've had a tough
relationship with Lucas Giolino this season, but he has been
absolutely brilliant over the last month or so. If you
(12:29):
want to hold on to him, cool, But if you
want to kick the tires on a trade where you
can bring back something bigger in a package deal, this
is your moment.
Speaker 2 (12:37):
Yeah, I'm willing to kick the tires. I would say,
like him being a three and a half year aa
is is not unheard of. He was that for years
and years back in twenty twenty one, but it's been
a long time. You know, he's becoming a completely different player.
I do think he you know, he found a fix
in his foreseen fastball. He's an important cog to the
Red Sox right now, but as you said, there's an
(12:58):
overrun higher exp than his current which would make him
close to Dylan Ces's current era at four to seven
to three. His expected batting averages against are pretty much
all higher. He's already giving up a two to ninety
batting average with his four seen fastball, but all the
other secondary stuff it's quite a bit higher. So I
have a little bit of worry that he's going to
come back down to earth. I actually think he could
(13:19):
still be relatively valuable. But if somebody is looking at
that three three era and the Red Sox winning and
willing to overpay, I am going to listen because some
regression does seem likely for Giolito.
Speaker 1 (13:29):
All Right, the last guy we're gonna talk about here,
and then we're gonna give you some keeper love as well,
Jose Barrios. I want to talk about him because I
know he's just kind of like your league average pitcher.
Some days are good, some days are less good. But
looking ahead here, you know, the last couple starts for
him have been a little checkered. For me, hasn't been great.
The last start against the Athletics on the road not
(13:50):
good either. So for his last seven games is era
is approaching four. Again, the expected ERA is higher than
the actual ERA. On the season as well, he's also been,
you know, worse on the road. He's got an ERA
over four on the road this year. So to me,
this is another one of these players where if I
can flip Burrios for somebody who is more exciting or
(14:10):
dare I say, more reliable on a consistent start to
start basis, I'd like to do it because I think
the overall picture is, hey, this is a solid picture
on a contending team. But from a fantasy perspective, I
think there might be other ways to go. What do
you think about Barrios and what his value might be
on the market?
Speaker 2 (14:25):
One hundred percent. This has been on the trade articles
we do on Fantasy pros. I've had him recently a
couple of weeks ago that I completely agree. He kind
of screams out to me, mediocre is definitely the word
I would use. We talked about some high barrel rates
on pictures. He's giving up eleven percent bail rate. That's astronomical,
that's ridiculous. Really a big, hard hit stuff he's given up.
(14:48):
His MaxV against has been one eighteen. It's over ninety average.
His expected ERA is a full run higher, strikeouts are low.
He has about a twelve K minus walk percentage, so
he has a higher walk great that he's had in
five years, and his strikeout rate is only twenty percent. So,
like all that stuff just doesn't match up. I think
he's gonna get blown up a little bit. I don't
(15:08):
like him in the second half. Maybe I'll be proven wrong.
Blue Jays are trying to win games, but this would
be a guy that I'm definitely trying to move off of,
hopefully in one for one value. But I think regression
is coming for Brios.
Speaker 1 (15:20):
Yeah, I do too, And I have my concerns about
if the don't tell Joel Rico, if the Toronto Blue
Jays can sustain what they've done here so far. It's
been a fun story. It's been really good. But you know,
guys like Max Schuers are in that rotation. I just
don't know if we can get there. And look, the
strikeout rate for Brios a seven point five to seven
K per nine, it's not great. The walk rate compared
(15:40):
to that three point two walk per nine not great,
and his expected the ra is four to six seven
on that three seven five era. So just to throw
that out there again, it's not quite as pretty as
some of the flat stats make it look. When you
start peeling back the layers of the onion, it starts
to stink a little bit. So Welsh for those people
who are playing in leagues with keeper dynasty situation here
where you're looking forward to next year. Maybe the twenty
(16:02):
twenty five season did not work out for you, but
twenty twenty six we're on and we're thinking about the future.
Who are some of the prospects or young guys that
you'd like to acquire in those situations. I know, I
kept talking about Uri Perez last couple of weeks. You know,
it's like, I think next year this time, we're gonna
talk about him in that same conversation, like the Skeens
type of guy. So that's mine. But is there somebody
(16:23):
else for you or maybe a player or two that
you think is like, all right, you're looking forward to
the future right now, these are some of the guys
that I want to try to get my hands on.
Speaker 2 (16:31):
Yeah, you've got You've got great assets that help someone
win now, and you've got a top team who's trying
to buy those and you're trying to, you know, compete
maybe for next season of the year after. Number one
player i'm going after is Connor Griffin. Connor Griffin is
going to be my number one overall prospect once Roman,
Anthony and Kags have full graduation. He was in the
futures game. He's moving through the system like crazy. I
(16:53):
don't know if he'll be viable next season because the
Pirates aren't competing, but he is going to be at
the top of the list. I'm also going to throw
out to Kevin McGough. He might be number one or
number two on a lot of lists. He had an
injury early on in the season with the Tigers. He's
flying through their system. He's a madman with the bat.
I really like him. And then give me one other
that I think is cooled for a lot of people,
Travis Bozana. You have CAGs and you've got Kurts, you
(17:17):
got Cam Smith, You've got all these guys that were
just drafted that came up. Charlie Condon struggled all of
a sudden, He's in the futures game, where's Travis Bizana.
Travis Bizon's been out here hanging with me. He's been rehabbing.
He's been hurt for a couple months, out of sight,
out of mind. He struggled a little bit in his
double A. He got hurt, and all these guys have
passed him. So I think he is in the back
(17:37):
of people's minds. But I think he's going to get
back running here and his rehabs. He was hitting off
of Noah Cindergard, showing those leadership skills, taking walks, running,
playing the field, trying to pull the ball. He's a
heavy poll hitter. I think he's going to get back
to it. Really really smart kid. And I think it's
a fantastic time to buy low on Travis Bizana when
people are kind of down because he's not doing anything
(17:59):
and he got.
Speaker 1 (18:00):
Yeah, there you go, last year's number one overall. Pick
goodbye low on him. That sounds like a good deal.
All right, that'll do it for us. Hoppy trading. Everybody,
make sure you make the moves you need to and
of course don't forget to drop your comments below. Subscribe
to the channel. You might win yourself A Wan Gonzalez
autograph jersey from Pristine Auction dot com. That'll do it
for us, but the story of the game goes on
(18:21):
for the Welsh. I'm Joey P. We'll see you next time. Kids,
go win that championship.
Speaker 3 (18:25):
Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Baseball podcast.
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dot com slash Fantasy Pros MLB
Welcome in if riding to Fantasy pros MLB. It's time
to make some trades. It is me, Joey p Joe
pisif here with me, of course is the Welsh, and
this is our last big trade video heading into the
latter part of the season, the stretch run. So if
you're in it, if you're out of it, or even
if you're looking ahead and keeper leagues, we're gonna do
our best to help you make the right moves to
(00:26):
do just that, which is success for the short and
the long term. We're gonna have all the success we
possibly can. And Welsh, I want to start with a
guy who's probably been one of the more disappointing assets
that we've seen all season long, Mookie Bets top five
overall selection, just eleven home runs on the season, six RBI.
And let's be honest too, the last thirty days of
(00:48):
not being kind to Mookie Bets, if you look at
some of the numbers for him, he has just one
home run over his last twenty five games here for him,
actually just two home runs. Pardon me, he's hitting a
buck eighty six over that period. Ops, Welsh, it's five
to oh seven now, I was concerned about Mookie Bets
going into the season because he had that illness or
he lost all the weight, and I thought, man, it's
(01:08):
a long season. This seems like a bad situation. But
then things started to go okay for him. But it
has not been very good towards the end of June
and beginning of July from Mookie Bets. But I want
to bet on the talent of a player at Mookie
Bets is extraordinary talent. Hopefully this All Star break is
exactly what he needs to reset. So if I'm looking
for a big time impact bat, a guy who can
(01:30):
do it all, I think Mookie Bets is worth that risk.
What do you think?
Speaker 2 (01:34):
Yeah, I think I agree with you too, because the
sentiment around him too is just so bad. Just like
you know, when you look at the first round, he
is probably at the tippy top or like right at
the cusp. I think who the Rodriguez was one of
those who we were buying in the last video that
we did. But I think Mooki is kind of in
that spot where the batting average is struggled. He's not
stealing bases, the homer, everything just looks very mediocre. But
(01:56):
you know, a lot of the metrics are just still there.
He's got expected batting average that's fifteen points higher. It's
really one of the lowest he's had in the last
like five or six years, but it is still higher.
He's not striking out. He does this launch angle sweet
spot thing where he gets the ball in the air
and pulls it. He's doing a decent job of that.
He's still got an over ninety percent zone contact even
(02:18):
if it's down. So it's like, wherever the downticks are,
a lot of who Mookie bets is is still there.
So if ninety five percent of the Mookie that we
know is still there, then I think it's it's in
a safer place to start betting on. Like who we
know him from before, which is, you know, a thirty
plus home run guy. He struggled at home this year,
which seems like a kind of a weird thing. I
(02:39):
think he can bounce back. He's only two thirty eight
at home, which why that's important that they're one of
the best ballpark for rein headed hitters, for pull side homers,
and that is something that he specifically does. I talked
about launch angle, sweet spot. He is able to hit
the ball in away where he gets it in the
air and he drops bombs at home, and I think
he's going to kind of get back to that. He's
also weirdly struggled against slow lighters this year, like oddly,
(03:02):
it's like he's really really hitting poorly, but expected batting
averages really on most all pitch types are higher. So
I think, like we could talk about all the like,
you know, the logistics of why he's Mookie Betts. I
think that's another way we put it, Like we know
it's a Dodgers team who's gonna go hamm in the
second half. Mookie Betts has always been a first round
ish talent. He's really struggling. I think people are letting go,
(03:24):
and I think there are many metrics that are working
in his favor to say that it is a goodbye.
So that's kind of the layman's way to just go
about giving a little bit of justification on why you
should buy a player like Mookie Bets.
Speaker 1 (03:37):
I'd also be buying Roman Anthony. Over his first one
hundred bats in the big leagues, it's very easy to
look and say, oh, two home runs and two steals,
two sixty four batting average, a seven to seventy seven
ops E I think to really get excited about or
see here, But I think that's wrong. I think if
you look at what he's been doing lately the last
fifteen games, he's think three seventy three over that span
with a four to thirty nine OBP and a five
(03:58):
twenty five slugging Roman Anthony starting to figure it out.
The Red Sox are getting hot. Alex Bregman is back
in that lineup now. I think this Red Sox renaissance
is for real, and I think Anthony is gonna be
one of these guys I would even say is really
in the think of it. You can get ten to
one on him for Rookie of the Year right now
in the American League. All of a sudden, Jacob Wilson's
going back to the pack a little bit here in
that race too. I could see Roman Anthony really making
(04:21):
a run of this in the second half, especially if
the Red Sox get carried not only to the playoffs
but maybe even dare I say, the American League East title.
I think Roman Anthony right now this might be the
last chance to buy him for any redraft league.
Speaker 2 (04:35):
I actually like the betting angle to that too, because
they're on a big run. He's an important piece of it.
He's hitting you in a really important part of the lineup.
His profile looks really great. Fifty five percent hard hit
with a double digit barrel. That is chef's kiss. That
is exactly what you want. He's doing this all also
while not getting the ball really like pulling it in
the air. He's got an eight percent pull rate, which sucks,
(04:57):
and his launch angles three like those are both so
that what I'm getting at is there's a there's room
for improvement on that. And as far as pitch types go,
he's hitting over two to eighty against off speed and
breaking off speed and fastballs. He's breaking pitches. He's struggling,
but he's got an expected batting average. All right, I'm sorry,
it's the inverse. He's really beneficial on breaking pitches. It
(05:18):
is the fastballs that it's like around two fifty but
expected to eighty five. So I just think the quality
of contact again, layming it back like, the profile looks good.
The quality of contact is solid, and Roman Anthony's gonna
be a big piece of the Red Sox being successful
in the second half. So kind of a good rookie
bye right now and a great rookie bet.
Speaker 1 (05:36):
Yes, I love the two have I already bet him
to win that award. I bet Misserroowski too when he
was ten to one. That's looking pretty decent, so fingers crossed.
I learned my lesson last year. You know, I flew
too coast to the sun two years ago. I got
them both right, Corb and Carol Gunner Henderson got the
duo bet and felt so good. I felt cocky Welsh.
But I was like Icarus last year and I melted
(05:56):
just way too early, and on Rookie of the Year.
So I waited to lost break ish to get a
feel for it. Wait until June ish July, and then
I'm making my moves. And my moves were Miserowski number one,
number two, Roman Anthony, where you get him right now?
Our last buy? And I know this is asking a
lot because he's been here before, and I know he
threw up another stinker this past week. I get it.
(06:17):
But I can't get away from the deeper metrics on
Dylan ceas I just can't. He's got an eleven k
per nine, his walk rate is still at a reasonable
three walk per nine his expected era is still so
much lower than his actual era is there is at
four to eight eight. The I can't imagine the cease
manager and I have zero shares this year. I can't
(06:38):
imagine where they're at, the frustrations they're at. Because the
expected era is three six, the fifth is three six nine,
and the X fIF is three four to three. All
of these metrics continue to scream, give Dylan Sees a break.
Hopefully he resets his brain and he comes back and
makes some adjustments to whatever is not going well for him,
or maybe it's just dumb luck. I don't know, but
I'm gonna die on this hill this year, and I
(07:00):
know I'm gonnaupset some people when I say buy Dylan Sees,
But I'm going to buy him for the stretch run
because there's not a lot of pitchers that I think
have that kind of talent, that kind of upside, that
are going to be available via trade who have struggled
consistently in that first half of the season. Ceases all
of those things, but all of the deeper numbers scream
that he could be better than what that three to
nine record shows you.
Speaker 2 (07:21):
So this is a tough one. But I'm gonna side
with you on this, and this is I'm going to
take an L with it too, because I brought up
and we broke caught up Dylan Cez like a month
ago and it has not worked. And that's an L
because he has not turned it around. But why this
is doable right now is because he's at an all
time load Dylan Ceese. You know, as people were putting
(07:42):
Zach Allen out to past year, people are now replacing
that with Dylan Cees. Dylan Ceze is done. He has
not recouped a couple string of good games. He's got
an almost five VRA. He's in i think the top
five of worst qualified starter eras out there like it's bad.
He's giving up too many barrels. So the reason you
can jump into those waters now is you're getting You're
(08:05):
almost at the point where it's like you can only
go up. I mean hopefully not your ear a going up,
but you can only go up. But also to what
you're saying, like the expected numbers are telling us still
a story over a run better expected era around three
and a half. His strikeouts are the same as they
were last year. Twenty nine Elite percent. He's not walking
a whole lot more, He's just giving up a lot
more barreled contact. But the difference now is that cost
(08:28):
should be so much cheaper. So if you bought before,
think you got to kind of hold because it's not
worth cutting bait. But he is at such a frickin'
low right now that I think, like why not you
could probably you could probably get him for sps that
are in the forties, probably some guys that you picked
up off the wire at this point. Now, that's where
the level of frustration is, and there's still a really
(08:50):
great second half upside for a guy like Dylan.
Speaker 1 (08:52):
Cees agreed one hundred percent. Man, Again, it's a leap
of faith, but that's what you gotta do to win
championship sometimes and sometimes price anding, like we talked about
on Talent pays off. I mean, look at last week
we talked about Julia Rodriguez buying him mister second half.
He had a pretty damn good weekend. So hopefully you
listened last Tuesday when the show came out. Before we
get to the guys we want to sell high on,
don't forget about the trade analyzer. Don't make a move
(09:15):
without the tools of Fantasy Pros. Fantasy Baseball My Playbook
app is available wherever you get your apps, or just
go to Fantasypros dot com slash MLB My Playbook. Remember,
and you sink your leagues for free. You also upgrade
right now. You get six months take you all the
way through NFL season as well as MLB and MLB playoffs.
So right now use the trade analyzer to help you
evaluate all the moves you want to make in all
(09:37):
of your fantasy baseball leagues. Again, Fantasy Pros is here
for you Fantasypros dot Com slash MLB My Playbook or
just download the Fantasy Baseball My Playbook app. Today, let's
start with Caleb Durbin on the sell highs here Welsh,
and look, this is not a knock on what the
kid's been able to do, because the kid has been
really exciting. Caleb Durbin has been I think better than
(09:58):
you could have possibly asked him to be. I just
don't think it's enough. I think at the end of
the day, we are still going to get a replacement here,
and I still say Juhenio Suarez is that guy. So
I don't want to knock what Caleb Durban has been
able to do. I think we can all step back
and say, hey, good job, buddy. I mean, he's in
three sixty five over the last thirty days. That's incredible.
(10:20):
He's got two home runs, He's got a nine oh
eight ops. I just don't know if that's exactly who
the Caleb Durban profile, considering he's a two to sixty
one hitter this season. So I think the Brewers are
for real. They're gonna go get another bat, and I
think Caleb Durban, unfortunately, is gonna be the odd man out.
What do you think. I think this is the time
to get out before the next two weeks hit and
he gets replaced.
Speaker 2 (10:40):
What this speaks more to of is not that you
can get a great value for Caleb Durbin and that
you need to figure it out. If you're relying on
Caleb Durban, you probably need to get out. I think
I agree with you. I think they're gonna go and
make a move. I think Swarez would be a great fit.
Caleb Durban can then become like a super util guy.
I would feel different if I was seeing the Caleb
Durban that I saw in the al that broke the
(11:01):
single season stolen based record all time. Even he's just
not stealing at an incredibly great clip, but he is
hitting well, hitting three forty six in July two ninety
six this past month. I just don't think it's enough
for them to make the commitment so in that, I
don't know if you can get a whole lot for
Caleb Durban, sure I would probably sell that. I think
they're gonna probably move on and he becomes more of
(11:22):
a super util guy that I don't want to like,
you know, rely on.
Speaker 1 (11:25):
Yeah, I think super util is probably very useful for
the Milwaukee Brewers as they make their playoff stretch. Run. Here,
who's got the best era in baseball over the last
thirty days. I bet you didn't know. It was Lucas Giolito.
Point eight three. That's how good he has been over
his last five starts. Thirty two winnings, twenty one hits,
thirty three strikeouts, seven walks. Now, look, this has been great.
(11:47):
If you pick him up off the waiver wire, you
can't possibly be happier than what Lucas Giolito has given you.
But this is unsustainable. It can't possibly be this good
for much longer. So I'm not trying to just completely
run a muck here and get rid of him. But
when you're talking about selling players at their peak, this
is it. This is the peak of Lucas Giolito. And
(12:07):
if you think you know what you saw in the
beginning of the year was scary and you're probably right,
this is the time where you can flip an asset
and get out from under Lucas Giolito. So I'm not
saying you have detroy him. I'm saying this is the
peak value. So Welsh, I know you've had a tough
relationship with Lucas Giolino this season, but he has been
absolutely brilliant over the last month or so. If you
(12:29):
want to hold on to him, cool, But if you
want to kick the tires on a trade where you
can bring back something bigger in a package deal, this
is your moment.
Speaker 2 (12:37):
Yeah, I'm willing to kick the tires. I would say,
like him being a three and a half year aa
is is not unheard of. He was that for years
and years back in twenty twenty one, but it's been
a long time. You know, he's becoming a completely different player.
I do think he you know, he found a fix
in his foreseen fastball. He's an important cog to the
Red Sox right now, but as you said, there's an
(12:58):
overrun higher exp than his current which would make him
close to Dylan Ces's current era at four to seven
to three. His expected batting averages against are pretty much
all higher. He's already giving up a two to ninety
batting average with his four seen fastball, but all the
other secondary stuff it's quite a bit higher. So I
have a little bit of worry that he's going to
come back down to earth. I actually think he could
(13:19):
still be relatively valuable. But if somebody is looking at
that three three era and the Red Sox winning and
willing to overpay, I am going to listen because some
regression does seem likely for Giolito.
Speaker 1 (13:29):
All Right, the last guy we're gonna talk about here,
and then we're gonna give you some keeper love as well,
Jose Barrios. I want to talk about him because I
know he's just kind of like your league average pitcher.
Some days are good, some days are less good. But
looking ahead here, you know, the last couple starts for
him have been a little checkered. For me, hasn't been great.
The last start against the Athletics on the road not
(13:50):
good either. So for his last seven games is era
is approaching four. Again, the expected ERA is higher than
the actual ERA. On the season as well, he's also been,
you know, worse on the road. He's got an ERA
over four on the road this year. So to me,
this is another one of these players where if I
can flip Burrios for somebody who is more exciting or
(14:10):
dare I say, more reliable on a consistent start to
start basis, I'd like to do it because I think
the overall picture is, hey, this is a solid picture
on a contending team. But from a fantasy perspective, I
think there might be other ways to go. What do
you think about Barrios and what his value might be
on the market?
Speaker 2 (14:25):
One hundred percent. This has been on the trade articles
we do on Fantasy pros. I've had him recently a
couple of weeks ago that I completely agree. He kind
of screams out to me, mediocre is definitely the word
I would use. We talked about some high barrel rates
on pictures. He's giving up eleven percent bail rate. That's astronomical,
that's ridiculous. Really a big, hard hit stuff he's given up.
(14:48):
His MaxV against has been one eighteen. It's over ninety average.
His expected ERA is a full run higher, strikeouts are low.
He has about a twelve K minus walk percentage, so
he has a higher walk great that he's had in
five years, and his strikeout rate is only twenty percent. So,
like all that stuff just doesn't match up. I think
he's gonna get blown up a little bit. I don't
(15:08):
like him in the second half. Maybe I'll be proven wrong.
Blue Jays are trying to win games, but this would
be a guy that I'm definitely trying to move off of,
hopefully in one for one value. But I think regression
is coming for Brios.
Speaker 1 (15:20):
Yeah, I do too, And I have my concerns about
if the don't tell Joel Rico, if the Toronto Blue
Jays can sustain what they've done here so far. It's
been a fun story. It's been really good. But you know,
guys like Max Schuers are in that rotation. I just
don't know if we can get there. And look, the
strikeout rate for Brios a seven point five to seven
K per nine, it's not great. The walk rate compared
(15:40):
to that three point two walk per nine not great,
and his expected the ra is four to six seven
on that three seven five era. So just to throw
that out there again, it's not quite as pretty as
some of the flat stats make it look. When you
start peeling back the layers of the onion, it starts
to stink a little bit. So Welsh for those people
who are playing in leagues with keeper dynasty situation here
where you're looking forward to next year. Maybe the twenty
(16:02):
twenty five season did not work out for you, but
twenty twenty six we're on and we're thinking about the future.
Who are some of the prospects or young guys that
you'd like to acquire in those situations. I know, I
kept talking about Uri Perez last couple of weeks. You know,
it's like, I think next year this time, we're gonna
talk about him in that same conversation, like the Skeens
type of guy. So that's mine. But is there somebody
(16:23):
else for you or maybe a player or two that
you think is like, all right, you're looking forward to
the future right now, these are some of the guys
that I want to try to get my hands on.
Speaker 2 (16:31):
Yeah, you've got You've got great assets that help someone
win now, and you've got a top team who's trying
to buy those and you're trying to, you know, compete
maybe for next season of the year after. Number one
player i'm going after is Connor Griffin. Connor Griffin is
going to be my number one overall prospect once Roman,
Anthony and Kags have full graduation. He was in the
futures game. He's moving through the system like crazy. I
(16:53):
don't know if he'll be viable next season because the
Pirates aren't competing, but he is going to be at
the top of the list. I'm also going to throw
out to Kevin McGough. He might be number one or
number two on a lot of lists. He had an
injury early on in the season with the Tigers. He's
flying through their system. He's a madman with the bat.
I really like him. And then give me one other
that I think is cooled for a lot of people,
Travis Bozana. You have CAGs and you've got Kurts, you
(17:17):
got Cam Smith, You've got all these guys that were
just drafted that came up. Charlie Condon struggled all of
a sudden, He's in the futures game, where's Travis Bizana.
Travis Bizon's been out here hanging with me. He's been rehabbing.
He's been hurt for a couple months, out of sight,
out of mind. He struggled a little bit in his
double A. He got hurt, and all these guys have
passed him. So I think he is in the back
(17:37):
of people's minds. But I think he's going to get
back running here and his rehabs. He was hitting off
of Noah Cindergard, showing those leadership skills, taking walks, running,
playing the field, trying to pull the ball. He's a
heavy poll hitter. I think he's going to get back
to it. Really really smart kid. And I think it's
a fantastic time to buy low on Travis Bizana when
people are kind of down because he's not doing anything
(17:59):
and he got.
Speaker 1 (18:00):
Yeah, there you go, last year's number one overall. Pick
goodbye low on him. That sounds like a good deal.
All right, that'll do it for us. Hoppy trading. Everybody,
make sure you make the moves you need to and
of course don't forget to drop your comments below. Subscribe
to the channel. You might win yourself A Wan Gonzalez
autograph jersey from Pristine Auction dot com. That'll do it
for us, but the story of the game goes on
(18:21):
for the Welsh. I'm Joey P. We'll see you next time. Kids,
go win that championship.
Speaker 3 (18:25):
Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Baseball podcast.
If you love the show, the best freeway to support
us is by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts
or Spotify, Follow us on x, Instagram, and TikTok at
Fantasy Pros, and subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube
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