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May 6, 2022 40 mins

What happens when you start really believing your own bullshit?

What happens when you’ve created a yes-man bubble where everyone only tells you what you want to hear?


First a war update:

  • Russia’s focus on the east and Donbass, which started a month ago, has made a bit of progress in a few places, but is now pretty stalled
  • They do seem to be regrouping from Mariupol, but they’ve also been going into a meat-grinder
  • Ukraine has made marginal advances towards Kherson and away from Kharkiv
  • SOMEHOW, Mariupol’s troops still stand in the Azovstal steel plant despite months of constant bombings and stormings -- there’s really nothing like it in modern military history (Alamo has absolutely nothing on it, not even a tiny bit close)
  • It REALLY seems like the vast majority of Russian attempts to advance are getting repelled, and that is going to grind them down and make them combat-ineffective
  • …and now Ukraine is getting tons of heavy weapons:
  • Tanks
  • Big, advanced howitzers
  • Radar systems to aim at Russian artillery
  • Rocket artillery
  • Drones
  • This is going to help them dislodge low-morale Russian troops and drive offensives


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