GRADING MY RECRUITMENT FORECASTS FOR 2025
Every year I write a long post making 20 predictions for the year ahead. This year, for the first time ever, I'm going to grade my predictions and see how I have got on
20 x Predictions for Recruiting in 2025
1. AI Assessment mainstreams; 50% of high volume hirers (more than 5000 hires per year) will have a solution in place by EOY.
2. ‘Skill based hiring’ revives as employers describe deployment of AI assessment as commitment to SBH. %age of employers describing themselves as SBH increases 50%.
3. 2FA on job ads increases 400% as an attempt to suppress increased applicant flow.
4. Applications per job increase by 25% as AI-enablement mainstreams candidate side.
5. Big round of investment for AI voice interview vendors currently at Seed - $100M raised in this sector by EOY 2025.
6. Non-FTE vs FTE hiring increases by 10% in 2025.
7. Avg internal TA team goes 25% non-FTE.
8. Req load per recruiter increases 15%.
9. Percentage of solo TA function goes from 73% to 83%.
10. TA teams continue geographic dispersal - %age of TA teams with multinational component increases by 30%.
11. More companies decentralise talent acquisition - %age of employers where HM do outreach increases by 10%.
12. Candidate resentment stabilises - with 2% points either side of 2024 level.
13. ‘Chief Automation Officer’ becomes an industry talking point in 2025, same as Chief Diversity Officer in 2020.
14. Speaking of DEIB, clear Atlantic divergence in 2025 - US explicit retrench, Europe implicit progress.
15. US vs UK economic integration deepens - %age of new UK based TA jobs from US employers increases 100%.
16. Global Staffing agencies revenue / profit down another 10% (profit warning again in Q1 2025).
17. But medium sized agencies / RPO stage mini bounce back as employers push more requirements out from denuded TA teams.
18. RecOps, Talent Intelligence roles decline 20%, EB roles decline 30%. People & Culture roles increase 15%.
19. Somebody Ubersises the legions of fractional TA’s out there. Probably this is Indeed.
20. Over half of these predictions will be directionally incorrect, 20% will be absolutely incorrect.
What should the grading system be? I thinking a sliding scale A to E.
What should be the source of truth? That is where we will be bringing in experts from industry who can validate the claims.
It's going to be a good one folks.
Friday 14th November, 12pm GMT
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Ep 344 is sponsored by our friends Popp
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