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October 10, 2024 11 mins
Robert Weintraub writes a weekly Bengals column for Cincinnati Magazine. We discussed this week's column on the Bengals not being as bad as their record, and Sunday night's tilt against the Giants. 

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Transcript

Episode Transcript

Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
He's Football in the NATTI wrote to you in part
by blood Light and by Skyline Hili on the official
home of the Bengals, Cincinnati's ESPN fifteen thirty.

Speaker 2 (00:11):
And we're on time today. Actually we're a minute early. Wow,
Robert winchobs here, I'd see a weekly Bengals column for
Cincinnati Magazine. You could read it at Cincinnati Magazine dot com,
where you can just go to my x feed and
click on the link on X.

Speaker 3 (00:28):
Rob is at Rob Wine and he's with us. Now,
what's going on?

Speaker 4 (00:32):
So does that mean I get to talk at length
because we're a minute early?

Speaker 3 (00:36):
Yeah?

Speaker 5 (00:36):
Sure, Football in the NATI really.

Speaker 2 (00:39):
Could you could take the next forty one minutes and
just use it as your own platform, talk about whatever
you want.

Speaker 3 (00:44):
Filibuster away and I'll head.

Speaker 4 (00:46):
Home a highly highly dangerous preposition.

Speaker 5 (00:49):
Bet I'll be my best, all right.

Speaker 2 (00:51):
So before the season, I gave you a hard time
because you know everybody's predicting the Bengals. We're gonna go
like fifteen and two. And then you wrote the columns
sounding the the alarm. Here are the things to be
cautious about, and now everybody thinks you know that this
might be among the worst five football teams ever.

Speaker 3 (01:07):
They're never going to win another game. Fire everybody.

Speaker 2 (01:09):
And now now you're taking the opposite approach, the contrarian,
I like it. Suddenly, your mister, everything is going to
be okay. The thing is, I kind of agree because
I just simply don't think it's worth betting against this
offense the way it's playing right now.

Speaker 4 (01:25):
Right well, first of all, you know me, I like
to sway like bamboo mo, so I go back and
forth with the breeze.

Speaker 5 (01:32):
But I'm also a two different people.

Speaker 4 (01:33):
I'm the remote control slinging expletive hurling guy on Sundays,
but you know, Monday through Saturday, I'm sedate and clinical,
and I put my analytics head on and I looked
at the fact that, yeah, the Bengals are the number
two offense by efficiency Rankings DVOA, as we always talk
about in the league.

Speaker 5 (01:51):
And you know, I always looked to point.

Speaker 4 (01:53):
Differential too, as a nice easy stat to look at.

Speaker 5 (01:57):
To determine your relative merit of your team.

Speaker 4 (01:59):
And the angles are minus five, which at one in
four basically means their average game this year they've lost
by one point. And that just means your margins are
so you know, it's almost hard to do in that
scenario to be one and four with that kind of
point differential, and you know it regresses to the mean.
As we say in the analytics world, those things don't

(02:21):
stay at the extremes.

Speaker 5 (02:24):
You can look at the Texans who are four and one.

Speaker 4 (02:26):
They have a worse point differential than the Bengals. That
means they've found ways to win these close games, and
the Bengals have found it, you know, excruciating, yes, but
unlikely to continue ways of losing a couple of these games.
Fourth and fifteen penalty in a bad hole last Sunday,
and you.

Speaker 5 (02:42):
Know, you can go on and on.

Speaker 4 (02:43):
So I look at the team, as you mentioned offensively,
they're doing pretty much.

Speaker 5 (02:47):
What they want right now.

Speaker 4 (02:48):
They're doing everything that we'd asked for as a as
a fan base to multiply their attack and be highly diversified,
move the ball and the passing game in different ways.

Speaker 5 (02:59):
Run the ball. Fact that we the offensive lines look good.

Speaker 4 (03:01):
So you can't tell me that that's going to all
of a sudden go away. And you know they've played
the best offenses in the league other than them so far.
The first third and fifth vests. So far through five games,
their defensive efficiency because we adjust for opponent, is actually
twenty second in the league, which is not great, but

(03:23):
not nearly as bad as you might think. So once
they start playing some worse offenses, I think the defense
will look a little better. And you know, as long
as the offense stays hume and you're always gonna bet
on this Burrow and Chase, etc.

Speaker 5 (03:36):
To find ways to win some games and get out
of this hole.

Speaker 2 (03:39):
How much is feeling reasonably optimistic based on the schedule
during the coming weeks.

Speaker 4 (03:45):
Well, that's a part of it for sure. The next
month they get to what the Giants, the Browns, the Eagles,
and the Raiders four teams that have much worse dvoas
than Cincinnati. They have much worse point differential, and I
think you'd say maybe with the exception of Jalen Hurts,
much worse quarterback play.

Speaker 5 (04:01):
Oh, Daniel Jones all of a sudden looking like an
All Pro.

Speaker 4 (04:04):
But you know, we don't think that's gonna last necessarily,
although he might dice up the Bengals that's a different story.

Speaker 5 (04:09):
But you know, it looks good.

Speaker 4 (04:11):
But on the other hand, you know, we thought that
coming into the season, and we thought the Patriots were
a walk over, and so it was Washington and they
didn't exactly look all that convincing against Carolina either. So
no game at this point when you're one and four
is a gimme. You can't look at it and say, oh,
this is a they're gonna go three and four this
month or whatever.

Speaker 5 (04:32):
I think it's definitely on the table. But they got
to play it.

Speaker 4 (04:36):
We got to beat this team in front of us
and get a win and feel good about ourselves finally,
and do it in semi convincing fashion before you start
looking ahead to the to the other teams that.

Speaker 5 (04:45):
You're gonna play.

Speaker 4 (04:45):
But you know, it's very possible that with the exception
of the rematch against Baltimore, they've played the hardest teams
they're gonna play for the entirety of the season.

Speaker 5 (04:54):
And that's good. And they have the hand.

Speaker 4 (04:57):
The Giants look very impressive this past Sunday against the Seahawk.
You know, manhandled them pretty good on the road. The
Browns we always have trouble against, no matter what the
two relative situations that the teams are. The Eagles have
a heck of a roster if nothing else, and you know,
their offense is potent, so they're gonna be tough raiders.
Maybe we can assume a victory, but you know, maybe

(05:18):
too late by them.

Speaker 5 (05:19):
So I don't know if.

Speaker 4 (05:21):
You know it's directly tied to the schedule, but it
doesn't help to be playing these guys rather than say
the Chiefs or the Ravens when you're already in the hole.

Speaker 2 (05:29):
Robert Wintraub's weekly Bengals column is available at Cincinnati Magazine
dot com. The Lunarumo experience has been interesting because when
he was hired, he was hired really late in the process,
really not their first choice, hadn't been a coordinator, not
much was known about him. He takes over a defense
that first year that was atrocious. They slowly get better,

(05:53):
they throw a lot of money into the defense. Twenty
one and twenty two, they're good, and they're really good
when they needed to be in the postseason against good teams,
and then things fall apart and now everybody wants a
new defensive coordinator. I got people in my timeline that
think Robert solid should be on the Bengal sideline running
the defense.

Speaker 3 (06:14):
By Sunday, so like, did we over rate Lou? Did we?

Speaker 2 (06:21):
Are we giving him too much blame? Like he's been
here for a long time. There's been been some highs
and there have been some times where it felt like
he was one of the darlings of the league and
should be a head coach. And now many would say
it's only a matter of time before he's shown the door.
Is Lou and Orumo good or did we overrate him?

Speaker 4 (06:40):
Well? First of all, I think you just described pretty
much every defensive coordinator has ever come through the bike.
I mean, that's kind of the nature of the league.

Speaker 5 (06:48):
First of all, defense is.

Speaker 4 (06:49):
Much more volatile than offense, which is why you'd rather
have a good offense than a good defense if you
had the choice.

Speaker 5 (06:55):
There's no question.

Speaker 4 (06:56):
That Lou's riding off that sort of twenty five game
heater that he had, which encompassed the twenty one playoffs
through the you know, the twenty two playoffs, and you know,
the defense, as you mentioned, was transitional before that. They
got rid of all the Marvin Lewis era guys that
they wanted to and they got the guys up the
speed when they brought a bunch of new people in

(07:17):
and that was when they were at their most elite.

Speaker 5 (07:19):
But you know, these things changed.

Speaker 4 (07:20):
No personnel remains the same in this league for the
most part, and now they're in a transition phase.

Speaker 5 (07:26):
We've talked about it a lot.

Speaker 4 (07:28):
They drafted a whole bunch of guys with high draft
picks make this defense younger, faster, and cheaper, and right
now all they are is cheaper and younger.

Speaker 5 (07:36):
They haven't looked up.

Speaker 4 (07:37):
Specially, they're not playing fast and they're not playing well.
Some of that, a lot of it maybe is due
to injury, a lot of it maybe doe the fact
that they didn't keep Jesse Bates. But you know, one
thing I will say about the Jesse Bates thing. Everybody's like,
now all of a sudden, hey, we should have kept
this guy, and sure he was a great player, but
you know, if you don't, if you keep Jesse Bates
at that point after the twenty two season, you probably

(07:59):
don't have or Brown on the team. And what do
we always talk about is that how we the most
important thing is protecting Burrow and getting that offensive line
up to up to the best it can possibly be.

Speaker 5 (08:10):
And you know you're seeing it right now.

Speaker 4 (08:12):
That's where they are, but you know, you can't have
it both.

Speaker 5 (08:14):
Ways all the time in this league, so they made
a choice.

Speaker 4 (08:18):
It's easier to replace a safety at ninety percent of
what you had than it is to find a semi
elite left tackle, and you know, you got to live
with your choices. I don't think this defense it's basically
bottomed out if you, you know, are looking at it
in that perspective, like they can't really play any worse,
you know, so the guys they have have to turn
it around, and you know they're capable of it. We've

(08:41):
seen a lot of these guys play well. I think
you saw Sam Hubbard get back to sort of an
identifiable Sam Hubbard after he's played hurt for the last
sort of twenty games. A lot of these rookies are
just and young players are just coming into the lineup
and getting their feet wet, and you know, you can't
expect them to be great, but you know you can
definitely expect them to improve. And you know, I like

(09:04):
to think that's what we'll see going forward, because it
can't get much worse than it spending over the last
couple of weeks especially.

Speaker 2 (09:11):
Is there anything historically that we could use as a
guide when we look at teams that have been as
efficient offensively in the bank as the Bengals but have
gotten off to slow starts.

Speaker 3 (09:23):
To teams I mean, are is there.

Speaker 2 (09:26):
There can't be a very long list of teams that
have been this good that have been as bad as
many male ledge they're going to wind up.

Speaker 4 (09:34):
Yeah, it doesn't happen. Basically, you know, there's not a
lot of examples because teams that are that good offensively
don't have slow starts. They win a lot of games
in the regular season anyway.

Speaker 5 (09:44):
Playoffs are a different story.

Speaker 4 (09:46):
But you know, just look at as I said, the
Bengals are the number two team right now in offense
DVOA the last four years as the Borough era you're
talking about. Last year, number two was Miami they won
eleven games, Buffalo the year before one thirteen, the Packers
the year before one thirteen, and in twenty twenty it
was the Chiefs they won fourteen and won the Super Bowl.

(10:07):
You know, teams that are this good offensively are very
rarely even in this spot three games under five hundred,
they win a lot of games, and that's because you
know what you want to be in this era of
football is explosive, and the Bengals have been and it's
just you know, you can point to the fact that, oh,
the defense has been terrible, or you could take an

(10:27):
approach saying that they've just shot themselves in the foot
at the worst possible time and it's a fluky one.

Speaker 5 (10:32):
In four record.

Speaker 4 (10:33):
Both can be true, but what remains mostly true is
that they you know, a team with that good an
offense is almost always going to be over five hundred
and you know.

Speaker 5 (10:45):
Most of the time is going to win ten games
or more.

Speaker 4 (10:47):
And the fact that the Bengals have a lot of
work to do to get to that spot is unfortunate.
But it's that's why I'm still optimistic that it's more
than possible that they can still even win ten games,
because of the fact that when you have that good
an offense, it's just hard to hard to keep down
over the course of a long season.

Speaker 3 (11:04):
Awesome stuff.

Speaker 2 (11:05):
I look forward already to talking next week, Thank you
very much, Meek.

Speaker 4 (11:11):
Moo, and hopefully off win for God's sake.

Speaker 3 (11:13):
It'd be nice. It'd be nice.

Speaker 2 (11:14):
I'm starting to forget what it's like. All right, there
you go, there's our guy. Robert Wintrop, Cincinnati Magazine dot Com.
Go Rita's column.

Speaker 5 (11:21):
Thanks Robert, no problem, Thank you man.

Speaker 3 (11:23):
Right there you go. It's five thirty on ESPN fifteen thirty.

Speaker 2 (11:29):
Don't forget you could hear the game Sunday night on
ESPN fifteen thirty, with pregame coverage beginning at four o'clock.
Sports headlines are next Orthos Cincimo Eggers Show, ESPN fifteen thirty,
Cincinnati Sports Station.

Speaker 1 (11:41):
You've been listening to football in Theinetti on the official
home of the Bengals, Cincinnatis, ESPN fifteen thirty

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